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Lions and Falcons and Squares (oh my)

By gfoss59 | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, December 22, 2012 02:45 AM   0 comments

One of the more interesting contra-CW calls we've seen in a while is LeagueCapper's post this week arguing for taking the Lions +4 points against the Giant-slayer Atlanta Falcons (in Detroit.)

Here's the link, which -- sorry -- you have to cut and paste:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101509391&page=1

(You know how to cut and paste, dontcha, Sam?)

I agree with most everything the skeptics are saying in response...  it's so hard to picture the Falcons losing, or winning by a handful, against the woeful Lions.

On the other hand, as a Packer fan, I've seen just how talented this team is -- how the Lions, through bone-headed penalties and muffed review flag tosses, manage to give away games (wins and losses, not ATSs) -- usually by thin margins.

And there is, as one poster observed, something "square," in the 1960s sense of the word, in taking the Falcons this week.

Let's look at the Lions at home this season:

Date vs. Score Line O/U 09/09/12 STL W 27-23 L -9 O 46 09/30/12 MIN L 13-20 L -3.5 U 48 10/28/12 SEA W 28-24 W -2.5 O 42.5 11/18/12 GB L 20-24 L 3 U 53.5 11/22/12 HOU L 31-34 x W 3.5 O 48.5 12/02/12 IND L 33-35 L -7 O 51
The last time the Lions lost by more than 4 points at home was back in September (by 7.)

Their last four home games, all against likely playoff teams, were, respectively: 1. a win, 2. a 4 point loss, 3. a 3 point loss to Houston, and 4. a 2 point loss to Indy.

Now, Atlanta is a better team than most of those opponents, but I do think our host here has a point that they have somewhat of a natural lull after slaying the dragon of last year's 24-2 humiliation.

Are they a disciplined team?  A team with a lot to play for?  Certainly....  But not as much as they had at home against the Giants. 

And with a short week to prepare, and a road trip, I see his line of argument -- and the relevance of his statistical argument -- as plausible and pertinent.

Two clever by half?  Perhaps. 

But that still leaves wo and a half cheers for LeagueCapper, and his patient affability dealing with the dunderheaded, name-calling response of some to his intriguing thread. 
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