Bet the #1 FAVE'S blind...

I'm not a frequent poster on here but a serious "lurker" and stats/trend tracker. I thought I'd share this one for all of you who like $$.

Since Jan 12th the #1 favourite of the night has gone 13-2 (losses are underlined):

PHI -173
WAS -152*
CHI -289
WAS -242
SJ -275
WAS -175
SJ -190
PHI -205
VAN -195*
SJ -210
NJ -177
PHI -228
COL -138
CAL -160
CHI -232

Betting these fave's blindly would have you up 9.63 units over the past 15 days. Only 2 of the 13 wins were in OT/SO (marked with *) so you wouldn't have had to sweat out many extra frames. Even losing both of those games would have got you +4.16 units.

Similarly, the #2 fave has been hitting quite frequently and has gone 11-5 over the same period (+5.01 units), despite losing 2 of the last 3:

WAS -164
ANA -137
DET -225
CAL -145
CHI -168
NYR -146
COL -167
PIT -193
NJ -168
VAN -174
COL -125
WAS -187
BOS -115
VAN -130
DET -175

So who says you can't win $$ laying the big(gest) numbers?

Leafs fans...

Anyone else going to the Canucks/Leafs game in Vancouver today?

I am.... and check out my "outfit" I created to try and get a laugh from Canucks fans, and piss off Leafs fans.

It's all in the details: ripped jeans from Value Village, small/old jersey complete with ketchup and pit stains, black Fubar mullet and fu-manchu. I know it doesn't translate to the photo but I smell like a Harvey's hamburgers joint too. You can't see the back of the jersey in this pic, but I hand wrote the name bar "HOPELESS SINCE" and #67.

GO CANUCKS!

CBC HNIC - Hotstove 10/17

For those of you not near a TV or in the US, here are my quick notes from tonight's HNIC Hotstove. You can usually find this on youtube later in the evening but I knew you guys would appreciate this a little earlier:

-Atlanta and Kovalchuk trying to work on a contract SOONER THAN LATER... Atlanta is apparently his first choice but don't rule out a huge offer from the KHL to lure him away as "their first poster boy"

-NHL is against taking the Olympics to Russia in 2014 largely in part to not having a current transfer agreement in place. This might be a little hardball in getting a transfer deal done.

-salary cap rumoured to be "flat" or down "1 million at worst" for next year which is a lot better than earlier projections which had it dropping up to 10 million. Chicago (Kane/Toews/Sharp) will love this news with all 3 needing new contracts at the end of the season.

-Franzen will not be rushed back from his knee injury. Detroit really misses Conklin, but won't dump the future to replace Osgood.

-Kessel deal: how many players have been traded in the past twenty years for TWO first round picks? Four times: Chris Pronger to Hartford, Rob Blake to Colorado, and Ken Wregget. Only once it has been in this situation though (to a non-contending team): Eric Lindros to Philly. Has Brian Burke made a mistake? If Kessel "isn't Eric Lindros", this might have been a mistake.

-Marc Savard hasn't signed yet and is UFA a... [More]

Leafs OVER = more Kraft dinner

This team never ceases to amaze me. Down 6-0 with 5 min to go in the 2nd I'm thinking "this game could still go either way". On one hand, the Leafs could lose 10-0, a result which would really burn Brian Burke's butt, or they could stage the huge comeback and win 7-6.

Looks like it might be the latter...

But, I digress.

Looks like betting the Leafs over for the rest of the season will be a no brainer as this team has decided to play shinny the rest of the way. Overs are cashing so early in these games that sometimes (fortunately) you only have to watch 1 period of crap before securing the win.

With all this OVER $$, I don't have to eat Kraft dinner.... but of course I still will, I'll just eat more... and buy really expensive ketchups with it... all the fanciest Dijon ketchups.

Flames fan steps in to help end losing skid?

Just came across this article on the TSN webpage with the headline "Police: Man arrested for making threatening calls to Jackets"

Interesting, I thought. I've got to read this one.

Police say a passionate hockey fan made physical threats against the Columbus Blue Jackets in a series of phone calls to the team's arena during a game.

Columbus Police Sgt. Rick Weiner says 52-year-old Peter Stenzel was arrested Thursday and charged with inducing panic for threatening physical harm against the team during their win over the Calgary Flames.

So I'm thinking at this point that it's just some crazed American (sorry guys, but we have crazed people in Canada too) who's had too many Bud Light's and decides to get on the horn and call the local hockey team. Then I realize, he's threatening the Jackets, not the Flames.... hmmmm.....

What do you think the "physical threats" were against the Blue Jackets? A hard slash? A nasty elbow? Was he trying to get the word out to Flames GM Darryl Sutter that he had a special skill set that would be of use to the team? "Put me in there coach!"

The article continues, and this is the BEST part:

Weiner says police traced the phone calls to Stenzel's Columbus home, where they found him wearing a Flames T-shirt. Police would not say if specific players were targeted or what the threats entailed.

Stenzel was being held at the Franklin County Jail pending a Saturday court hearing.[More]

Chipper Jones to Leafs rumours dead?

Forget that he he doesn't even play hockey, but everyone's favourite Chipper (no disrespect to Chipper Lowell) has apparently squashed any chances he had of becoming of a Toronto Maple Leaf.

When asked about his World Baseball Classic experience, Larry had this to say about 'T-Dot'. “We stayed in Toronto for a week and played three games. I don’t know if you ever stayed in Toronto, but it’s not exactly Las Vegas. To say that we were plucking our eyebrows out one at a time would be an understatement.”

Disregard that Chipper apparently shapes his eyebrows, but this comment is sure to infuriate the Leafs faithful which had long fantasized about acquiring the longtime Braves stalwart to play for their beloved 'Buds. The reasoning? 6 time all-star, 2-time Silver Slugger, 400+ career home runs, and an NL MVP in '99. Hello!? The man's an ATHLETE. Plus, Chipper played for years with former NHL draftpick Tom Glavine who was drafted 5 rounds ahead of (wait for this)... Luc FRICKIN' Robitaille! If A>B and B>C, then doesn't it reason that C>A??

The Leafs have long coveted fading, injury-prone former superstars (Wendel Clark, Steve Thomas, Jeff O'Neill) and Chipper figured to be on their offseason shortlist. I guess you've screwed yourself now Larry! Enjoy the rest of your days hanging around the Braves medical room, thinking of 'the one that got away.'

Oh well.... you'll always have your Hooters waitress!

#1 sign you're "over-thinking" games

Anyone else notice the trend of late that Toronto games have been hitting a lot of unders?

I did.... so imagine my excitement when I got the UNDER 6 for tonight's game at +112. Stupid books! They were still setting lines for the "Maple Leafs of old" before they stopped scoring around trade deadline time.

Most of you know by now where this is going.... the 1st period of the game just ended... and the score is ALREADY 3-3. I've already lost any chance of winning/pushing my under bet.

Sorry OVER gods, I will not insult thee with such bets against your beloved Leafs ever again.

WGC Semi-Finals Picks/Hedges

I didn't put any QF bets in this morning as I wanted to see how my 3 remaining futures bets would fair and then re-evaluate for this afternoon.

Tournament Futures

Ogilvy +2500  WON 
Leonard +9000  LOST 
Added after Rd1: Casey +1795 

With both Ogilvy and Casey favored in their afternoon SF matches, I'll make small hedges and bet against each of them for 2 units.

Day 4 PM - SF Matches

Cink +135 vs Ogilvy
FIsher +127 vs Casey

If either hedge (Cink/Fisher) wins, I get back more than double my original investment on the tournament futures, but I'd still be happy to sacrifice 4 units see Ogilvy and Casey both move on and face each other in the finals.

WGC Match Play - Day 3 lines are out!

10:00 AM301 T. Clark+101  302 R. McIlroy-111


10:00 AM303 G. Ogilvy+104  304 C. Villegas-114


10:00 AM305 L. Donald-101  306 E. Els-109


10:00 AM307 P. Mickelson-133  308 S. Cink+123


10:00 AM309 I. Poulter-128  310 S. O'Hair+118


10:00 AM311 P. Hanson+155  312 P. Casey-165


10:00 AM313 R. Fisher+121  314 J. Furyk-131


10:00 AM315 J. Leonard-121  316 O. Wilson+111... [More]

WGC Matchplay Day 2 Picks

Went 10-4 (with 3-1 dogs) for a big day 1. I like the line movements on all my early leans for day 2 so I'm locking them all in now.

For writeups on these leans and opening odds (for those who care) check out my earlier post.

Day 2 Matches

Mahan -103 vs McIlroy
Donald -123 vs V. Singh
Stricker -106 vs Els
Z. Johnson +117 vs Mickelson
Casey -131 vs Goggin
Perez -101 vs Fisher

Still have 5 of 6 futures alive after Karlsson was the only to go out in Rd1. Added Casey now too as a lot of the big names (Perry/Karlsson) in his quarter bracket are out.

Tournament Futures

Woods +475
Ogilvy +2500
Donald +4000
Z. Johnson +7000
Leonard +9000
Out: Karlsson +3500
Added: Casey +1795

Ideal quarter finals would have Donald/Z. Johnson vs Ogilvy/Woods and Leonard vs Casey.

WGC Matchplay Picks - better late than never

Made my picks late last night but went to bed before posting. Not much has happened so far this morning so don't start with accusing me of making these up. Consider this information/discussion only for active matches.

Lines are all from Pinnacle - glad I'm not paying 30-cent juice like some books (AJ).

Day 1 Matches

Kjeldsen +145 vs Singh
Donald -153 vs Curtis
D. Johnson +123 vs Stricker
Z. Johnson -123 vs McDowell
Woods -454 vs Jones
Clark -103 vs Goosen
Weir -108 vs Mahan
Ogilvy -177 vs Sutherland
Weekley -110 vs Rose
O'Hair +123 vs Scott
Karlsson -159 vs P. Hanson
Casey -116 vs Baddeley
Perez +125 vs Harrington
Leonard +105 vs Romero

I checked the odds again this morning on these matches which have yet to start and ALL of them have moved the line in my direction. Good sign!

Tournament Futures

Woods +475
Ogilby +2500
Karlsson +3500
Donald +4000
Z. Johnson +7000
Leonard +9000

I've had good luck with a few of these guys in previous futures bets, with Zach getting to the semi's in this event in 2006 (at +12500) and winning the Masters of course (at +20000).

Leonard was solid last year and is in great form, but I do worry about his 1st round matchup against the young Romero. Hope he can get by that one.





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