seton hall v st peters

Posted Plays 2011: 6-1

With a spread of -14 my knee jerk was to take the peacocks over their neighbors, but after inspecting their lineup and results, the obvious pick here is seton hall right?  well not so fast, the st. peters results are misleading because they were missing their starting center for the first 3 games, then he came back and they blew out a winless binghamton team.  Meanwhile, the Pirates have relied on their experienced and lightning quick point guard Jordan Theodore and 6’8”center Herb Pope. When you add talented 6’6”sophomore wing Fuquan Edwin to the mix, the Pirates have the tools to give any MAAC team all it can handle. SPC guards will need to keep Jordan Theodore out of the lane and stop him from penetrating if they want to stay in contention.  I think the talent at guard will eventually wear down the lesser manned Peacocks as they did last year when the pirates won by 20.  I see a similar outcome tonight.

Seton Hall -14 for 2 units

 

ill st rutgers 2nd half

Posted picks 4-1-1

I think the redhawks are the better team here. So.....

College Basketball  780 Illinois State 2nd Half +155* vs Rutgers 

Also got Kansas -8 tonight v. UCLA....talent wins out!

 

3 first half bets

2-0-0 on the season after the dukes kept it close enough to cover against Arizona.

No write ups tonight but im putting a unit on the following:

Rhode Island +6 v george mason 1h

Ole Miss +11 v Lousiana Monroe

Rutgers +11 v Dartmouth

More to follow and maybe a write up

Arizona v. Duquesne side

Season: 1-0-0

A good start to the year as I scooched the St Johns under on Monday Night.  Onto the next one....

The Wildcats are ranked 16th in the country but don't let that fool you.  This team may get there at some point but right now this Arizona team is as raw as the come.  In fact, they suffered a loss to a division 2 team in the preseason.  On Monday night, they led Valpo by just 2 and after stretching the lead to as many as 20, Valpo was able to cut the lead to single digits and only lossed by 9.  Duquesne is better than Valpo and much more athletic.  Yes, the Dukes lost a ton of production, but they have the A 10 frosh of the year coming back in local product T.J. MCConnell.  The Dukes will try out there 40 minutes of hell tonight, pressing the entire game, hoping to dictate the tempo.  They also have the advantage of having game film on this current wildcat squad.  I think McConnell will be able to keep Kyle Fogg in check most of the night.  So Arizona will have to find other players to contribute scoring wise.  I'm not sure they'll be able to do that.  All and all I love the +10.5 the Dukes are getting.  At +425 I considered the ml, but instead I'll take the points.

Pick: Duquesne +10.5 for 3 units

st. johns v bill&mary total

Happy opening night fellow cappers. 

Tonight I feel we have been given a gift with a total of 137.... St. Johns has basically a brand new set of players led by 6'9 juco transfer God'sgift achuiwa....yes his name is actually god'sgift and he played his juco ball in my hometown of buffalo.  He has some raw skills which will be on display tonight.  But I think as a group it will take the johnnies sometime to mesh.  William and Mary has experience coming back with 13 of 14 returning including 4 starterw but is still wet behind the ears with 2 sophs and 1 frosh in its starting lineup.  They''re star Quinn Mcdowell is hampered by an injury and will not be a 100%. The team's star player has been out much of the preseason with a meniscus injury. Two contributing players are definitely out with injuries: Tim Rusthaven and Kyle Galliard.  Add all this up and basically you got stjohns teams who have little to none regualr season game experience and W&M with a young lineup hampered by injuries and a star player looking to shake off the injury rust... To me this adds up to a game that  will be played in the low 60s.  the pick: one unit u137

 

My best bet for Saturday, what's yours?

I got two of them.  Notre Dame -6.5 at Beted.  That's a big half a point.  I am a ND homer, but I also took Michigan St. last week so I'm objective to a point.  I dont think their are many teams that will be able to stop the Irish offense this season with or without Floyd.  The Irish have a talented freshman who was a 5* recruit so its not like they only have one good receiver now.   Purdue was respectable against Oregon but  they gave up 454 yards to Northern Illinois, a decent team from the MAC.  280 of those yards were on the ground. Ouch.  They also gave up close to 500 yards to Toledo (although alot of those came during garbage time)

Every game is a must win for the Irish and I feel Clausen is up for the challenge.  This is the weakest defense Notre Dame has seen on paper at least and ND has looked unstoppable at times in every game they've played this year.  Even the Michigan game, which they lost, they moved the ball with ease.  Purdue will be able to move the ball on offense, but they won't win a shootout like Michigan did unless they can create turnovers and I just don't think Cluasen will.  Irish 48 Purdue 31...obviously like the over as well.

Washington +8.5 @ Stanford.  Is Washington suppose to let down after their 2nd win in their last 17?  I don't think so.  Washington beat USC and were in it late against LSU yet their big underdogs against Stanford who has yet to... [More]

Thursday Night Breakdown

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh:
The Steelers had one of the greatest defenses of all time last year, and they needed every bit of it too cause their offense was lousy! What? Lousy? Well let's see....They finished ranked 22nd in yards per game, 20th in points per game, 22nd in total points, 17th passing, 23rd rushing, and allowed  49 sacks good for 4th in the league in that catagory. So it just speaks volume about their defense. The Titans had their way with the Steelers last season in their only matchup and if it weren't for the Ravens pulling off the playoff upset, it may have been the Titans as Super Bowl Champs.  Now you might want to play up the Steelers revenge angle cause of the thumping they took last year, but I'm thinking the only thing Pittsburgh remembers from last season was the taste of the champagne and the rings they acquired.  The Titans will be the hungrier team Thursday night.  Their out to prove their season last year was not a fluke and what a better stage to show it then Opening Night on National TV.  The Tennessee defense will be flying, they boast one of the best secondaries in the league and they did not miss a beat even when Haynesworth was out due to injury.  The Steelers weakness last year was pass blocking and that spells trouble for the Steelers. The Titans front four will put pressure on Big Ben all night and I expect they be able to create a few turnovers by Cortland Finnegan and the Titans secondary.    T... [More]

Taking the Irish -2.5 tomorrow and here's why

The Irish have been playing alot better defense as of late.  On paper you might think that Kentucky plays better defense, but the stats reveal something different.  These teams both hold their oppostion to a 40% field goal percentage. (ND at home, Kentucky on the road)  In the last 5 ND has held the opposition to an average of 36 shooting percentage from the field which is better than what the Cats have given up over their last 5. The Irish also hold a notably better rebounding advantage than the Cats do against their opponents.

The eye tests reveals an edge for the Irish as well. I have watched Kentucky a few times as of late and they hardly ever get easy looks.  This team with the exception of Meeks has a lot of trouble scoring or even creating good looks.  If you stop Meeks, you stop Kentucky.  I do worry about the long layoff for the Irish so taking the Cats in the first half is a possibility espcially with them coming off a big win at Creighton..... but with the Joyce Center rocking who knows, maybe ND comes out shooting the lights out, although I wouldn't bet on that. I think come the second half the Irish will make it tougher on Meeks and I expect Patterson will get into foul trouble or will be worn down from having to cover Harangody.  Harangody will probably get going in the second half and that will create better opportunities for shooters like McAlarney, Ayers and Jackson.

In conclusion I don't think ND will ... [More]

Best opening round bet

I'm taking the Golden Eagles -5.5, despite being in a slump since losing James.  Marquette showed a lot of heart in coming back against Vilanova and with or without James, this Marquette team is much better than Utah ST. Utah St. couldn't even compete with St. Mary's without Patrick Mills. They lost 3 of their last 6 to teams like Boise before catching fire and winning their conferece tournament.  They did beat Utah, their most impressive victory but other than that, Utah St. is a team that beat up on a bunch of nobodies. Marquette could have been in trouble if it hand to deal with a big front line, but Utah St. is not that intimidating on the inside and their guards will outduel those of of the Aggies. Marquette should win this one by at least 8 or 9.

Get your popcorn ready Bills fans! TO signs with the Buffalo Bills....what?!?

As a Bills fan I am speechless.  I know Owens is not what he used to be, but considering Lynch is a criminal couple that with them bringing Jauron back after three straight 7-9 seasons this signing was a must! Along side Lee Evans the Bills could not have a decent pass attack especially if they can find a pass catching tight end in the draft.  I know this is a cbb forum but nobody is in the football forums so forgive me!  What does everyone else think of TO in Buffalo?

Should the Big East get an 8th team in the tourney? Can the Irish get back in the discussion?

Pitt, Uconn, Lville, Marquette, Nova, Cuse & WV are in.  Now in my opinion the selection committee will reward the conference with an 8th bid and right now it's probably Providence.  But there is still a scenario where I think ND can still make it.  Tell me what you guys think if this happens:

ND defeats Rutgers in round 1 and then Cinci in round 2 and Providence gets knocked out in the second round by Gtown (they're likely opp after their bye)  In this situation ND would have as many conference wins(including the conf tourney) as the Friars (10) ND would have the head to head battle won since they beat Providence at their place.  ND has two good out of conference losses (UCLA & UNC) and one decent out of conference win (Texas).  The Friars out of conference resume is much less impressive with their lone marquee win coming against fellow bubble team and neighbor Rhode Island.  They also have two notable out of conference losses to BC and St. Mary's.  Both teams went through horrid stretches.  ND had the well documented 7 game losing streak while the Friars lost 5 out of 7 in conference games, in which their losses came by an average of 20 points.  Their wins in that period were against Rutgers and South Florida.  They both have 1 marquee conference win with ND blowing out Louisville at home while Providence beat Pitt at home. 

My point is, if Providence loses in the first round then I think th... [More]

TNT MLK DAY PICKS YOU NEED

Record: 37-27-2

Detroit -4 v Memphis....Both teams are on big time skids, but this is the first time Detroit will have all five of their starters ready to go, though not 100%.  I think the Pistons will play this game with a lot of intensity desperate for a win. The more talented team prevails....
Pistons 92 Grizz 80

Suns +8.5 v Celtics... Suns have been on the losing end of a lot of close losses this year, a few coming this week.  This team is actually playing well and has won 7 of 10 with the 3 losses coming by a combined 11 points, 1 an ot loss to the Nuggets. The Suns have been scoring in bunches and Shaq is really starting to fit in nicely.  The C's meanwhile seemed to have turned it around after their mini slide, but have they?  They are coming off back to back wins over Toronto and NJ, two teams that are not on the same level as the suns.  The Suns are healthy and have a big time front court advantage especially with perkins still out for the Celtics.  I think the Suns will come out hard tonight and may even escape with a W.
Suns 107 Celtics 104

Cavs v Lakers over 202....What a matchup! Kobe is set to guard Lebron tonight and that should make for an interesting night. Kobe asked to guard DWade on Jan 11 and Kobe shut him out over the last 7 minutes....of course Lebron is much bigger and stronger than Wade so I don't expect Lebron to have an off night.  Actually quite the contrary.  I think for the Cavs t... [More]

Better conference.....ACC or Big East?

The ACC is making a run at the Big East in regards to which is the best conference.  Big East is so deep but Wake, UNC and Duke are all top 5 if not top 3. 

I think they could send  9 teams this year. Meanwhile the Big East could send ten.Syracuse, Georgetown, Uconn, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, West Virginia, Marquette, Providence are llegitimate tournament teams that all could make a run to the sweet 16.  You know your conference is good when teams like Cincinatti, Rutgers, and St. John's are some of the worst teams in the conference. 

What the Big East lacks is a major powerhouse. Some will argue that Pitt or Uconn are bigtime powerhouses but I do not think they are the same level as the big 3 from the ACC.  So who is the best conference in the country, In my opinion it's the ACC. Clemson is undefeated and their only the 4th best team.

That's impressive.

Two Unders, 1 Dog, and 1 "Trap Line" I love

Boston v Cleveland u 184....Check the records....when Boston plays a good team, the total goes under:
vs. Houston (line 184.5, actual 174) Atlanta (186.5, 173) NO (189, 176) Portland (184.5, 171) Cleveland (182.5, 175) There are a few exceptions but since Boston is in a slump offensively I'm taking the under for 2 units. Celtics 84 Cavs 82

NO v. LAC u 184.5....The Clips are back to paper.  There are several reasons this stays under the total, the first being the Clips were embarassed last night and afterwards spoke of having to play better defense which I believe they will.  However, NO is a grind it out type of team and the Clips may be fatigue from playing yesterday so I see this as a very slow tempo game. For the Hornets the Under is 9-0 in NO last 9 Fri. games and is 8-1 in NO last 9 games as a favorite.  The Clips have stunk on the offensive and tonight they'll be without Baron Davis and Zack Randolph. Where are the points going to come from? Two units on the under!
Hornets 92 Clippers 83

Indiana +14.5 v LAL....This spread is way to high for the Lake show to cover against a Pacers team that has won 3 of 4 and before that though they lost 4 in a row it was by a combined 12 points in 4 losses.  So the Pacers have been playing teams close. Conversely, the Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. The Lakers have won just 2 games by more than 14 in the last two months.  Revenge will be on their m... [More]

Jets Joke

Mangini is gone because he didn't get along with King Farve

In an attempt to appease his highness King Brett the Jets let Eric Mangini go after going from 4-12 last year to 9-7 this year.  But Farve wouldn't have come back if Mangini stayed and for some reason people are still catering to this has been of a quarterback. He singlehandedly cost him that game yesterday and a few others.  He will never be the same guy he was in Green Bay. 

Farve also has no class.  He walked off the field yesterday without congratulating a single Dolphin.  Would Pennington have not congratulated Farve if he had lost. No Way!  I'm so sick of this pompeous prima donna.  And the fact that he is a pro bowler this year is a fn joke.  Mangini may have not been the best coach, but he is better than what I have here in Buffalo. 

I'm happy Farve is going to return to the Jets now.  He's lowsy.

Has the books and the public overreacted to the Heels early dominance plus Monday's plays inside

Since the Michigan St. blowout the Heels are 0-3 Ats as Vegas has been setting the bar too high (and the public has been pushing it higher).  Personally, I have cashed in on Evansville and Rutgers who were both catching 30+ points.  I'll definitely be looking to see what the Wolfpack are getting on Wednesday, but if it's over 25 like i think it will be I'll be taking the dogs once again.  What does everyone else think?

Tomorrow:
Temple +9 v Nova...interphilly game seem to be close games.
Niagara -4.5 v Morgan St....mismatch here even on a neutral floor.

good luck everyone.

NBA Sunday

Cavs -13 v OKC.... I know. I know. The Thunder are playing better basketball.  They also have been competitive in their last 10. They haven't suffered a dd loss in last 10 games.  But all the Cavs do is blow teams out.  This team beat the Thunder by 35 because its men against boys in this game.  Why would this change simply cause this game is in Oklahoma?  I don't think it will.  I think the Cavs may start slow but eventually talent will prevail in a big way.

Cavs 107 OKC 88

Why you shouldn't bet KC, why Pats-Cards will go over the total, and a few other strong leans

Miami -4 v KC (2 units) I think the Chiefs gave everything they had last week against a bad SD team and they still came up short.  The Chiefs have come close so many times this year and still fallen short that I think when Herm gives his motivational speech tomorrow it won't resonate with his players.   They know he is a lame duck coach and they're playing for nothing and I'm willing to bet they're sick of this guy talking a big game and the big picture and producing two wins.  Let's also not forget this is a KC team that gave up 54 to Buffalo.  There's a reason why KC has 2 wins and Miami has 9 and it's called talent or lack thereof. KC is terrible against the run and unfortunately that's what the dolphins do well. Miami will run the ball tomorrow with ease and Chad will make a throw when he has to to keep the chains moving.   The Dolphins defense has held their opposition to 9, 3 and 12 total points in their last 3 weeks and have kept their opponents under 20 in 7 of their last 8 so the under is certainly in play as well.  I think this stays close for three quarters but the fish pull away in the 4th

Dolphins 23-10

Saints-Lions over 49.5...(1 unit play) both defenses are severely shorthanded and have nothing to play for which I think equals a shootout. The Saints give up 25.2 points/game and the Lions give up 31.7 a game.  Yikes.  Need more? How about the over is 9-2-1 in NO last 12 as a fave and the over is ... [More]

Friday Night Four winners, two gimmes and two surprises

Bucks +5....I actually like the way the Knicks have been playing as of late and I think the Lakers loss was a moral victory, but I'm fearing the dreaded return home from a long west coast road trip that the Knicks are coming off of.  The Bucks have beaten the Knicks twice already and matchup well with the run and gun knicks.  Knicks  wake up late. Knicks 112 Bucks 111

Clips +2.5....Not much to say here other than the Clips are a better team. Too much size.  Clips 106 Pacers 100

Celtics -12
Celts under 196....  Blowout city tonight.  The  Bulls just cant matchup well with the Celtics.  The Bulls should be a tired bunch and if this gets to double digits,  I don't see the Bulls putting max effort in to keep this a game.  Celts 100 Bulls 83

The Clips are playing better basketball, but it appears Vegas hasnt found out yet :LA Two 4 Tuesday!

Posted Record NBA: 5-2 (Although I posted Suns -8.5 as my posted pick today cause that was the line on covers, but I ended up getting them with my local at -8, but since I posted 8.5 and not -8 I'm showing that as a loss.)

Two for tomorrow

Clippers -4.5 @ Oklahoma City.... I really like them in this spot.  Get in on this number early cause it's going up imo! The other LA team has turned things around.  Their 7-2 ATS in their last 9 and are coming off back to back wins over Portland and Houston and if it weren't for a 4th quarter meltdown against Orlando the Clippers would have had four in a row with three of them coming against upper echelon teams.  The Thunder are a really bad basketball team. However they have covered 2 in a row and 7 of the last 9, but most of these were double digit spreads.  4.5 simply is not enough points here to consider Oklahoma City even without Davis and Kaman.  (This team with Randolph I actually think is kind of dangerous, but it's probably too late to dig out of the hole.)
 I think Clip backers can find value in this line all the way up to 8-9.  Good luck. Clippers won by twenty last time. This time its:
Clips 106 OKC 93

Lakers -13...Lakers finally cover. Knicks fifth straight road game, third on the  west coast.  I think New York gave everything they had last night trying to get D'antoni a win.  They'll be spent.  This ones a blowout.  The Lakers will score ... [More]

I'm loving the Huskers -7.5 Tomorrow Here's why

Oregon St. has lost to Nevada, Iowa St. and powerhouses Montana St, Yale, & Howard.  The Beavers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games and a whopping 3-13 ATS as a home underdog in their last 16 contests.  This is a bad team! Meanwhile Nebraska is 6-1 and has beaten Creighton, St. Louis and TCU.  If I'm missing something here please let me know ASAP otherwise I'm taking Nebraska -7.5 for two units.

Nebraska 67 Oregon St. 52

Take the Friday Night Nets tonight at home!

Nets -2.5... If you are big on trends then the Nets are definitely the way to go tonight.Toronto is 2-7 ATS in their last nine while the Nets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10.  The Nets are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday Night Games.  They seem to play well in front of their fans on Friday and Saturday nights.   They are also 4-0 ATS following an SU loss.while the Raps are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog and 0-4ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. And get this, the Nets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  And I think the Nets do get back to playing better defense after allowing 121 to the Knicks last time out.  Prior to blowout loss to the Knicks, the Nets had held Philly and Minnesota to 84 points a piece in wins last week. Toronto meanwhile finally got a win for their new coach.  However, I think Harris will get the best of Kapono or Moon tonight and the Nets grind out a W.  I like the Nets in this spot. 
Nets 106 Raps 96 Good luck to all

Why Shouldn't I be on the Kings tongiht...rookie capper needs help.

Sacramento +16.5.... That's a ton of points to be giving a team that the Lakers just lost to by double digits.  I understand the Lake show revenge angle here and I'm sure thy're pissed, but the lakers haven't been blowing teams out like they did in the beginning of the year. In fact they're 2-7 ATS in their last 9 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4.  Luke Walton will be starting again tonight to encourage better ball movement.  I forsee this decision aggrevating Kobe who in turn will force a bunch of tough shots like he did earlier in the week against the Kings in which he was 9/25 from the field.  They had trouble matching up with Garcia and I don't see that problem being solved tonight.  These two teams have played twice with each team winning at home so they're certainly familiar with each other and to me that means a tight game. Its either the Kings + the points or no play at all even if  Kevin Martin isn't in the lineup.  .  And by no means I'm I saying the Kings are a lock.  If the lakers won by 25 I wouldn't be surprised, so tread lightly, but until they get out of this minor funk I'l like the Kings + the points in this spot.  If anybody see this differently, I'd appreciate the comments.

Lakers and Kobe have a big 4th quarter...Lakers 115 Kings 106

Taking the Paper Clips over the tired Blazers and here's why

Just finished watching the Blazers game and this is a team that looks tired and disinterested besides B Roy.  Steve Blake is terrible and Oden, while playing good d, is still lacking on the offensive side of the ball.  I know the Clips are terrible, but I like them tomorrow with the points.  Yes the blazers are at home, but I think it takes a half for them to get their legs back, while LA should be fresh after having three days off.  I look for the game to be decided in the fourth. 


*  Portland is 0-6 ATS and 3-7 ATS in their last 10.

*The Clips have covered 5 of their last 7 and if it weren't for a 4th quarter meltdown against Orlando last time out that stat would read 6 of 7. 

Point is The Clips are playing much better basketball of late.  Davis is becoming acclemated with his teammates and Eric Gordon is giving them decent play. The Clips have Camby, Thornton and Randolph to contend with the Blazers size and help prevent Roy from penetrating.

They keep it close long enough to cover a 9.5-10 point spread.

Blazers 94 Clippers 90

*Total has gone under 9 of the last 11 Portland games for those who may wager on the total. 

First Posted Plays: ATL v SA & CLE v PHI

Atl SA under 190....Both teams played tough games last night. San Antonio coming off a hard fought double overtime win should come out slow in the first half. Meanwhile Atlanta played a 92-84 ugly grind it out loss last night against the Rockets and will not much better tonight against a similar defensive minded Spurs team. Under is 12-3 in last 15 SA home games.
I'm Taking the under for a one unit play.  Spurs 90- Hawks 87

Cavs -6.5...I'm throwing out all other factors and simply applying the eye test.  Sixers are grossly outmatched by the Cavs. This line seems a little fishy and if this game wasn't nationally televised I would of probably not have played it. Lebron lights them up for 40 and Cavs win by double digits yet again. Cavs 102 Sixers 91 for a One unit play.