gollum's Blog

Monday Night Football writeup

By gollum | View all Posts
Posted Monday, December 14, 2009 10:43 AM   11 comments
Won the browns play thursday, didn't post any sunday plays

like the over here, i see a similar game to last years great monday night game these teams played. lots of points and down to the wire. In that one arizona was home but they won 29-24 with a last second goal line stand. Both teams are near the bottom of the league in passing defense and we all know about the high powered arizona passing attack. but san fran has opened it up and are averaging 250 per game through the air their last 3. alex smith is starting to look like a solid qb. injuries to nate clemens should help fitz get open and bertrand berry is questionable, he is tied for 2nd with 5 sacks on the cards, if he doesn't play smith should get a little extra time to make plays. Arizona has already allowed 7 tds to tight ends this year 4th most per game in the nfl. vernon davis already has 10 tds most in the nfl for tight ends which include 7 in the 7 games alex smith has started. If i see any nice props for him I will probably play it. ill also look for any props i can get on fitz/boldin. I am also leaning towards san fran if I can get 4 or 4.5 may also play small on the ml if i can get it at a nice number. Also I have already seen 2 "MNF lock" threads both said arizona wins easy and one said the under. i never hate fading threads like that. I am on the over for 1 unit so far at 45 and the 1st half over 22 for 2 more units. will probably add a little more tomorrow plus a possible niners play. Good luck with whatever you guys play
11 comments
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michaelpaul1 says:
12/14/09 10:42AM
DOVJAK says:
12/14/09 10:44AM
gollum says:
12/14/09 10:56AM
the class i am studying is partially a stats class and that got me to thinking. anyone who knows the numbers correct me if i am wrong but on the larry td play to give myself good value on a -120 play would i need to think there is a better than 54.54% chance of him scoring? I got that number by 100 (the payout) / 220 (the risk + payout) = .4545 X 100 to get 45.45% then subtract that from 1 for. 54.54% the math makes sense to me but i may just be real wired from the all nighter. either way I think theres at least a 60% he hits pay dirt. If anyone could confirm my math or call me an idiot for rambling on completely wrong I would appreciate it. thanks.  
amd says:
12/14/09 11:13AM

Yes sir

I hope Sparty can get their shit together soon...... Bol tonight bud.

gollum says:
12/14/09 11:20AM

If your talking about the football team its a little late for that. I'm assuming your talkin about the basketball team tho. we always play texas tough, i think that will be a great game hopefully we can pull out the W. Personally I don't mind the early season losses, playin the tough schedule helps prepare for march as long as we win the big 10 and make a run in march (hopefully to the championship) I'm not too worried about what happens before new years. Good luck tonight 
Johnnybad says:
12/14/09 01:33PM
lets not over think this game...

arizona -3 1/2 is my 1 unit play

ETexas007 says:
12/14/09 02:02PM
I like the over on this game also. Arizona is a better team and has more offense, but SF has been reorganizing in the QB spot. I look for a seven to 10 point win by the Cardinals. You gave good info. Thanks for sharing. Good luck to you.
gollum says:
12/14/09 06:54PM
adding a few more units across the board. gonna lay of the niners, ill just root for my over and all you cards backers to crush the books.

probably final plays for the day:
2 units over 44.5, 2 over 45
2 units over 22 1st hf, 1 over 22.5 (-105) 1st hf
4 units larry fitzgerald to score a touchdown (-120)

good luck everyone
gollum says:
12/14/09 07:09PM
was looking at fitz's game logs and on top of having 31 tds his last 32 games these are his stats when playing a team for the 2nd time in a season the last 4 years
2009
21-1388710.9141
2008

29-248465.891
34-1067312.2231
34-21513026.0502
33-13816620.8411
32-25915216.9623
gollum says:
12/14/09 07:09PM
2007
37-31 (OT)915617.3482
42-2167913.2231
48-191117115.5262
2006
34-205469.2181
27-2177911.3221
26-2049323.3571
gollum says:
12/14/09 07:12PM
wouldn't fit in the same post. don't know why the week and opponent didn't show up but that is every time he has played an opponent for the 2nd time in a season (including playoffs). has gotten in at least once every time, obviously this doesn't guarantee he gets in today but its a trend i would like to see continue because i dont want to have posted all this shit for nothing. gl  
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