Posted Saturday, December 07, 2013 03:02 PM
Offense sells the tickets, Defense wins the championships.
I started to break this game down thinking I was going to unload on Auburn. However, after looking at the numbers, it is obvious the the play is the Tigers....... it is just that it is the black and gold tigers.
If you look at my Rice/Marshall write up from earlier, you will see that you don't bet a team because they have a better offense.......but you do bet a team because they have a better defense. There is no doubt that both of these teams can move and score the football, but this game is going to come down to who can make the stops.
I first looked at their conference stats. Auburn averages 5.7 YPC and Mizzou 5.3. This is a SLIGHT advantage. Auburn averages 461 yards per game, Mizzou is 460. Consider the fact that Mizzou was without Franklin for a stretch and I think these numbers actually favor Mizzou.
The defenses stats are night and day. Auburn gives up 458 yards per game while Mizzou is 379. The biggest stat of all. Auburn allows 4.7 YPC and Mizzou is 3.5. 4.7 doesn't stop anyone.... 3.5 is a sign of a pretty good defense.
After first looking at these numbers, I was still trying to bet Auburn. I thought. Well Auburn is in the SEC West (BAMA/LSU/A&M) while Mizzou is in the east. So naturally Mizzou's defense is going to put up better numbers. Well, take a look at their common opponents. I will gi... [More]
Posted Saturday, December 07, 2013 09:59 AM
Had a nice little hit on BG last night.... wish I woulda had the balls to take the ML, but oh well.
Thinking the same may happen with Rice today. But I'll take the points.
I am not going into some super lengthy write up. Number one, most people are just here to bash. 2nd, people don't really like to listen to reason anyway.
So here are a few reason I'm going with the owls.
First off, you gotta love having a Conference Championship game at Home. Rice's average home score is 31-12, while Marshall's average away score is 36-30 (I know they played VATech on the road, but this is nowhere near their averages at home of 53-13).
Looking at the offenses. Marshall clearly has the advantage in yards per game. But you don't bet a team because they have a better offense. Either they can move the ball or they can't. Rice has an offense that can put up points, and run the ball. Marshall does have a better offense, but that's why we're getting 7 points! If you look at their home/away averages this is much closer..... Marshall 471 ypg with 4.3 ypc on the road, Rice 411 ypg and 4.5 ypc at home. Looking at these numbers Rice actually has the advantage.
Looking at the defenses, Rice has the edge here. In conference they are giving up about 70 yards per game less, but the big difference is with First Downs. In conference, Marshall is allowing 21+ FD's per game (a pretty high number). Rice ... [More]
Posted Saturday, November 30, 2013 08:53 AM
Woulda went 6-1 yesterday on leans/plays but only ended up going 2-1 on games I actually had money on. Trying to get an early start on the games. I haven't looked at a thing yet other than lines. This is my initial reaction after looking at stats for 4-5 minutes on each game. I would look much closer before pulling the trigger.
If anyone has anything to add, any quality information is greatly appreciated.
Rutgers @ UCONN +3 - My initial thought was UCONN sucks, Rutgers is playing for a bowl game, this could be the play of the year with a line this short. Upon looking at scores alone, I see why it is a short line. After starting strong, Rutgers has been a disappointment. While UC looks to have righted the ship with a big win against Temple last week (anytime you get your 1st win of the season, it is big.) So I'm thinking, scare line, fishy, stay away. However, after looking at the stat lines, UC still sucks. They only had 235 yards against Temple. I am gonna have to go back and see how they won that game. UCONN can NOT run the ball to save their lives. If anything, I'd have to put my money on Rutgers. But this may be a no play. Gonna definitely have to look deeper here, and that's only if I cannot find something else early that I like. Leaning Rutgers, but may be a stay away. The only thing that keeps me leaning is Rutgers playing for a bowl game. Anyone loc... [More]
Posted Friday, November 29, 2013 09:07 AM
I coach HS football, and since we were in the middle of a great season, I didn't have much time to post or get too deep in NCAAF as in years past. Season officially over and have some time to post and get some discussion started. I nailed the under last night in the Egg Bowl. Like the under today's early game.
Obviously we have a low number of 48. I hate betting unders LARGE, as all it takes are a few turnovers or OT to dick you, so I'm making a small play here.
There are two big stats that I look at when capping NCAAF, rushing YPC (both on offense and defense) and First Downs (both offensively and defensively). Can a team run the ball, and can they move the chains? Can a team stop the run and do they force punts.
Cornhuskers are a little better at moving the ball 5.1ypc per year compared to 4.4. But Iowa is much better at stopping the run 3.6 yards allowed per carry compared to Nebraska's 4.0.
With the injury to Martinez, Nebraska has really struggled to move the ball through the air. Iowa's defense has been stellar lately. They did give up some yardage to OSU and Wisky (but who doesn't). They absolutely put the clamps down on everyone else, and haven't give up more than 15 FD's in their past 3 games.
Iowa's offense really hasn't looked great against anyone. MSU, NW and Wisky absolutely shut them down, and Nebraska's defense has been just as dominate.
With all of that being said.  ... [More]
Posted Saturday, December 29, 2012 11:02 AM
I see alot of people on the under (and I'm sure there are quite a few on the over here as well). But every time I see an under backer their reasoning for the under is that AF runs the football.
This game does not come down to AF running the football and forcing the under. This game comes down to, do you think AF will have success running the football. If you don't think they will have success against Rice's swiss cheese defense, then take the under. But if you believe AF will be able to move the ball, then you must take the over.
I just looked at three AF games this year in which they had success moving the ball. Take a look at the game, and then LENGTH of the TOUCHDOWN drives.
Nevada - 48-31 - 6 TD Drives
9 plays 75 yards 2:55
8 plays 95 yards 2:42
9 plays 65 yards 3:07
6 plays 83 yards 1:56
15 plays 75 yards 5:28
14 plays 73 yards 5:24
average 10 plays 77 yards 3:17
UNLV - 35-38 - 5 TD Drives
average 6 plays 51 yards 2:08
Colorado State - 42-21 - 6 TD Drives
average 7 plays 69 yards 2:45
They run the piss out of the ball.... but they drive the length of the field in under 3 minutes!
I like it when people play certain angles.... but the running the ball angle is not the one that will determine the under!
So really, this has NOTHING to do with running the football, and this game comes down to what every other game comes down to. Will the defenses be able ... [More]
Posted Friday, December 21, 2012 07:12 PM
See alot of love on Ball State. I was leaning that way, but their defense swayed me to just playing the over.
I do like two first half props.
BALL STATE O 13 $115/$100
Score in the first 6 mins $75/$50
Posted Thursday, December 20, 2012 06:07 PM
I will start of by saying that both of these teams are well coaches, disciplined and it should be a good game tonight. I don't see how anyone would call this their game of the year, or top bowl game pick. Hell, on ESPN's bowl mania where all you have to do is pick a winner, the average confidence in this game is 6 (with 35 being the high and 1 being the low).
I believe that BYU has the much superior defense. SEVEN times this year they have allowed a team to score only 2 TD's or less. They are monsters against the run, allowing only 2.7 ypc, and they are lights out nasty. The take pride in defense and they bring the funk every chance they get.
When looking at bowl games, the one thing that teams can shut down when they have time to prepare is the run game. That's why teams such as GT, AF, etc, lose all advantage when teams have weeks to prepare. I think BYU's defense is so stout, that with time to prepare San Diego State loses any advantage that they may have had with their run game, and I think they get smashed in the face tonight.
BYU has allowed over 400 yards of offense only once this season, and they have held teams under 300 9 out of 13 games.
I like San Diego State, think they are a good team, but they drew the wrong team for tonight's game. BYU's defense shows up, and they win this game.
Posted Tuesday, December 18, 2012 06:20 PM
Been hitting pretty consistently on college basketball as we transfer over from football. Like 3 plays tonight.
- think Richmond's record is making this line
shorter than it should be. They have been blown out of two road games
against must less quality of an opponent. Kansas is tough at home, and
have shown that they won't let off the gas. Richmond is gonna have a
tough time staying in this one. I also liked the over when I first looked at this....... but a 75 - (under 60) final score is definitely possible in this one and won't bode well for the over 136.5 backers. So I stayed away from the total.
been horrible when it come to actually winning. However, they have
played tough close games, and really only been blown out once. They are
fighting, and have their conference to look forward to. Charleston
looked good at the beginning of the year, but they should have had a
bounce back game after getting routed by UL, and instead they lost at
home to a D2 school. I like the points here.
Southern Miss -3
- showed what they have by planing Arizona tough on the road. You hate
to play the common oppenents angle. But GState got routed by LaTech,
and Southern Miss played them tight all game. Like the road fav here.
Posted Saturday, December 08, 2012 12:25 PM
Guys, I normally go into a long break down of each game that I play (normally 3-4 a Saturday), but with the schedule that these two teams play, and the different types of offenses and defenses they play each week it is tough to get a good read.
I am playing Army for one reason today, and that's because the one time they faced an offense similar to Navy's they held Air Force to 104 yards rushing and a measly average of 2.4 ypc.
I know all 3 service academies run different versions of the triple option, and AF is the most different of them all. Stoping AF doesn't not mean they stop Navy...... but they do have the potential to do it. Army's struggles this year have been on defense, not offense. So if their defense steps up today they have a shot at winning SU.
Army returns a ton of guys with playing experience and starters from last years team, which I read somewhere else that it does not happen that often (can't verify that, just read it). They know how close they were last year, and I think this one is a close one again this year.
ARMY + 7
Posted Monday, December 03, 2012 07:38 PM
I see some guys calling for a covers bloodbath when the Skins cover tonight. I just opened the first 15 post on this forum and it as 5 Giants 10 Redskins (with several of the Skins picks being ML picks).
I know I read an article of the Sharp $$$ being on the Skins, but I see alot of covers bro's on them too.
I took the Giants earlier today -3 -105.... Thinking of loading up. People calling for a Skins upset.... Giant's have been hearing the smack talk about how the last game was "GIVEN" to them.
I just think the Giants got away with winning the last game, they make the corrections and this one doesn't need a last second TD to cover.
Posted Saturday, December 01, 2012 04:10 PM
In my years of capping (I'm only 32 and been on it since college) there have been a few things to hold true. One of those is that when everyone is on a Dog, the Dog usually isn't the play. I see alot of love for Wisconsin - Phil Steele, Lou Holtz, Robert Smith, and several other ESPN commentators. I love the dogs, but when everyone is on them it's usually not a good sign.
I like Nebraska here for a couple of reasons. For starters, they have a HUGE advantage at the QB position. Martinez is the most efficient QB in the B10 and Wisconsin is down to their 3rd QB. This will leave the Cornhuskers to play the Badgers alot like OU played TCU today, and dare the QB to beat them. He's throwing at a 50% clip and only averages 6.0 ypa, so if Wisky beats them with him airing it out, them more power to them.
Nebraska has struggled with stopping the run in some games, but they have faired very well against teams that line up in a pro style offense and come right at you. They held the Badgers to 56 yards on 41 carries in the 1st game, and they should have success tonight.
Wisconsin did have a big lead in the 1st game. But that was only because everything went their way early. A Nebraksa fumble and short field led to their 1st TD. Big pass lead to their 2nd TD. Roughing the kicker led to another Big Pass for their 3rd TD. A sack/fumble recovery on the 10 yard line led to their 4th TD. And the ne... [More]
Posted Saturday, December 01, 2012 11:50 AM
Sitting here with two little ones this morning.... so don't have a bunch of time for a write up since we're 15 mins before KO. However, I really like OU in this spot. Not gonna throw a ton of stats at you.... just a few reasons for the pick.
TCU has struggled at home this year....... who knows why, may be coincidential, but it proves there is really no huge homefield advantage and teams don't fear going to TCU.
OU is still playing for a conference championship. In their eyes Texas has a shot to knock off KState tonight and give them the outright B12.
TCU has become one dimensional in the past few weeks. They don't throw the ball well, and I expect OU's defense to capitalize on this. Texas' D did well to shut them down as well.... but Texas O, in the middle of a QB controversy couldn't produce.
TCU has been great against the RUN, but not so much against the pass. OU can air it out and they will today.
Alot of public TCU love since their days of being BCS busters. Beating Texas was way up on their list. I am sure beating OU is too, but it is TEXAS Christian........ OU's offense has the power to do what Texas' didn't.
Pretty much this games boils down to OU's offense, the fact that they still have something to play for, and I believe the put up the points necessary to cover here.
Nothing is certain.... but I like the play.
Posted Friday, November 30, 2012 03:20 PM
When I first looked at this game, and I think just the NIU hype of their QB Lynch (who is a beast BTW), this line of -7 seems about right.
I do like Kent State, and for a couple of reasons.
I think it is pretty obvious that this game is going to come down to RUNNING THE FOOTBALL, and on that line....these two teams are pretty even.
Even though NIU has the advantage on Offensive and Defensive yards per game, these teams are not that far off. If you look at MAC games along.
Kent State averages 43 rushes per game for 264 yards.
NIU averages 46 rushes per game for 265 yards.
Defensively when it comes to stopping the run.
Kent State defenses averages 33/110 3.3 ypc
NIU defense averages 36/108 3.0 ypc
Both of these teams can run the football and both of them have been able to stop the run.
NIU does have an advantage throwing the ball. And when I first looked at it, I was going to stay away from this game. But two things stuck out to me.
When NIU played Army, a team they know was going to run the ball, Army averaged 5.7 ypc and scored 40. As well, both Ball State and CMU had success running the ball against NIU both averaging over 4 yards per clip.
And the last thing that stands out that makes Kent State the play. When Kent State faced the monstrous Rutgers defense (and we all saw them against the run last night). Kent State still went off for 50 carries at over 4 yards p... [More]
Posted Wednesday, November 28, 2012 06:07 PM
Anyone have any solid information on this game?
Books seem to be off on Ball State as they have yet to cover. However this is not the Cleveland State that we are accustomed to either.
Having a hard time just wondering if Ball State is the play here as the books know Cleveland State is getting all kinds of love based off of past experience.
What I do know..... and anything else added would be appreciated.
Ball Stats has a JR/SR starting 5 that averages 3 players in DD.
Cleveland State starts 4 sophomores and 1 sr.
Looks like Ball State has a definite size advantage both front court and backcourt.
Cleveland State is definitely shooting better 44% v 37% 2pt FG's and 38% to 24% 3pt fgs.
I don't know...... I hate to spend time on a game and then not make a play.
If I had 2 I'd probably take the points at home.
Just wondering if anyone else out there has any insight on this game.
BTW - love Kent State +4 and gonna make a small play on OSU +5.5
Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 11:09 AM
No need for a 2 page write up. I have great respect for Penn State and am as surprised as anyone on what they have done this season.
I like this play and here's the main reason/angle.
Wisconsin can RUN THE FOOTBALL. PSU has a great defense, but they lost against the two B10 teams that run the ball 40+ times per game. Nebraska went 57-267 and OSU went 53-235. Wisconsin will run the football 45+ times today and it will wear PSU out.
Expect a great game. But I'll take the Badgers.WISCONSIN +2
Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 10:50 AM
I'll start off by saying I've been running pretty good this season. No need in throwing some fake record out there, b/c I haven't keep track. Who cares really! I'm an SEC homer, and I before placing a bet, I could care less who wins the game. I have respect for Urban Meyer and mutual respect for Brady Hoke, it doesn't help my team regardless of who wins.
When looking at this game it is pretty even in paper. For the sake of typing, I will give OSU stats first and then UM stats second. In B10 conference games this year:
Pass Completion 53%/54%
Pass Completion 56%/60%
These are three stats I look at every game, focusing in big time on YPC as running and stopping the run are two key factors in winning games.
When looking at these two teams, the look almost Identical on paper. The one big difference I see is that Michigan has been able to put teams away, while OSU has let some teams hang around. Even giving up the last second TD to Wisky will make OSU fans nervous at the end of this one if it's close and UM has the ball.
There are several other factors, and several other angles you can take. Both teams have excellent defenses, they can both run the football, and they will both be up for this game like no other.
With all of that being said, I'll take the points and the better defense (a la ASU last night). A... [More]
Posted Friday, November 23, 2012 08:34 AM
I like Syracuse in this spot today. I played for Coach Marrone the one year he was at Tennessee and he is a best of a coach. A Syracuse alum and totally turning that program around. They are NOT the same team they were at the beginning of the season.
Temple has struggled against all decent BE teams. In 3 out of their last 4 they have averaged less than 4 ypc while giving up over 5.5 ypc. If they can't stop the Syracuse run, they are going to have big issues today as Cuse is a threat to opening it up and go downfield.
Cuse defense is not what it will be in a couple years, but they play balls out and get after it. They held Pitt, Uconn, Louisville, Rutgers and then Mizzou (last week) to all under 3 ypc, and I see them doing the same against Temple today.
Syracuse showed me a lot last week by winning on the road in a non conference game in which they were not expected to do much. I know Missouri is not a juggernaut, but it shows that Syracuse doesn't need something to play for to go out and get after it.
Nothing is certain, and this could be a close game early. But I'm going with Syracuse -7.
Posted Wednesday, November 21, 2012 04:08 PM
I was leaning Kentucky, but I really hate laying 24 points. Then after hearing about Sean Woods comments I had to pull the trigger.
These UK frosh may not know anything about UK history, and they probably don't know any of the former players, but I bet after today they know who Woods is
One thing Coach Woods will realize tonight is that he may have been a top D1 basketball player, but he's coaching Morehead State and he is not batting with his own stick tonight.
Posted Sunday, November 18, 2012 09:43 AM
I have been pretty successful with teasers and ML parlays this year. I like this 3 teamer this morning.
7 points +140
Falcons don't blow teams out, but I don't see Arizona pulling off the early morning upset with Atlanta coming off the loss.
Dallas - this is more of a play against Cleveland than it is for Dallas. I just don't see a Cleveland win here.
Cincy - some people are thinking KC is the play if they are getting the points. Maybe something crazy happens and KC wins by a FG late, but they are horrible and I just don't see it.
Anything can happen and nothing is for certain. But I like this 3 teamer and it'll be my only play in the 1am games.
Posted Sunday, November 11, 2012 08:43 AM
Manning and the Broncos playing pretty tough. Cam not the same Cam we saw last year. Like the Broncos in this spot.
Oakland cross country playing at 1pm, and Ravens have enough offensive firepower were we should be good.
Only play I'm making in the early games....... like two other mens bball games much more than I like any other NFL today.
Posted Sunday, November 11, 2012 07:57 AM
3-0 to start off the College Basketball Season. I am not done looking at today's game, but one game is already jumping off the page.Oakland -2.5
@ Louisiana Lafayette
LL returns just 4 players from last year's 16-16 team. Oakland returns 4 starters! Oakland has already played a game this year and shot lights out 60% from the floor and 6-11 from downtown.
Oakland is an experienced team, used to winning big games and knocking off big teams early. I think they start their 7 game road trip off on the right foot tonight.
LL returns just 25 ppg from last year's team. Has 6 freshman and 4 sophomores, and I just don't see them handling a tough Oakland team today.
LL starts one player over 6'5" and he's a true frosh. Oakland starts only one player under 6'5" and he's a 6'4" redshirt junior point guard.
I don't know guys, nothing is certain in sports betting. But I really like Oakland -2.5
Posted Saturday, November 10, 2012 08:52 AM
I see some value in some early games. Hopefully will hit these, and then cost in on some late games. Here is my card for the early games.
Tennessee/Mizzou OVER 60 - Overs are 8-0 in Tennessee games this year for a couple of reasons. They are one of the few SEC teams airing the ball out, and their defense is horrible. This one may be close to over before the half. $110/$100
Central Michigan -3 - Eastern Michigan has been playing hard, but they really can't get it done on defense. Their run game is sketchy, and I just believe I am taking the better team. $52.50/$50
4 Team Sweatheart - This time of year college lines can be pretty sharp. I like these sides, and love them even more with the 13 points. $120/$100
1. Cincy +4 - a team to circle for next year, based on some athletes, Butch Jones, and the team work ethic. Had a bad run of it here late but have played some good opponents. Don't really see them losing this one, and def love it -4.
2. Louisville +11 - I think Louisville is on upset alert here. But they are undefeated for a reason, and playing strong. They may lose a close game, but they don't get blown out.
3. Arkansas +27 - I like them at 14, I think this (almost) 4 TD spread will be a little much for SC to cover, especially without Lattimore.
4. Tennessee O 47 ... [More]
Posted Friday, November 09, 2012 10:23 PM
At the beginning of the year when the total on the Tennessee-Georgia game came out, I thought the line was crazy. It was set at 60 points, and I was wondering who in the world a big time SEC game was going over 60? It was over 60 before the half!
Every game this year has gone over for the Vols.
Tennesssee's defense is atrocious and TROY almost covered the over themselves.
On the other hand, their offense is pretty good. And unlike most SEC teams, they light it up through the air.
Alot of points..... easily covered with out much defense. Missouri offense should be right there in helping cover this one.
Posted Friday, November 09, 2012 01:49 PM
I used to post here on a regular basis back in the college days, but when you go at a clip of about 70%, provide write-ups and all you get is garbage in return and people trying to be smartasses 30% of the time I took a lot of time off from posting.
Stayed away from FSU last night...... have hit Ball, BG and Ark St this week.
Like Pitt -3.5 tonight. The biggest two factors that make this a large play ($110/100) for me.
1) UCONN is averaging 1.4 ypc in their past 3 games (all against Big East opponents). I don't care who you are, if you cannot run the football you are going to have issues. Some BS may go down and Pitt may not cover, but you don't bet a team that cannot run the football.
2) UCONN does overage 290 through the air, but Pitt's pass defense is pretty decent and shut down a pretty good passing offense in Syracuse.
What is boils down to is Pitt is the better team. UConn is winless in conference and the big reason they have struggled is they cannot run the football. Yes Pitt had a big letdown to Notre Dame, but this would be a fade game had they beat ND, not coming off a motivational loss. Multidimensional offense against a struggling offense, and a team fighting in a coach's first year to be bowl eligible. Pitt will be up for this game, they may not blow them out, but I like them to cover the 3.5
Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 09:02 AM
Hey Guys 10-4-1 since getting into the swing of NCAAB season (after taking a layoff from NCAAFB and letting myself adjust).
I normally don't post any write ups - as most people are on here just to slam other people's post and get all worked up rather than have a genuine conversation about a game.
Like Maryland in this spot. They are 1-6 on the road which is probably why the line is what it is, but GT is without their leading scorer (Glenn Rice Jr) as he is still suspended. GT has really been inconsistent and w/o a true point guard I just don't see how you would want them with under 4 minutes left and the game on the line. Maryland has shown they have some serious talent and could be a dangerous team come ACC Tourny time, they fight to get back to .500 today and I just like them in this spot.
But if I had to just make one big play today it would be the Terps @ a PK.