grins1010's Blog

Posted Wednesday, December 17, 2014 12:50 PM

Sea & GB first half bets look juicy - Ship it.



My prediction is between

Sea -6 or less 1st half - 4 units
GB - 5.5 or less 1st half - 4 units

Reasoning-
I'm weary of moving on both the Green Bay and Seattle two score spread.  Garbage points at the end especially in the GB game concern me, however both Seahawks and Packers 1st half lines will open -6 or less. 

Rodgers and friends just lost control of their grasp on the division lead, and have the lowly Buccaneers to take it out on while trying to stay alive in the playoff hunt. Pack play Detroit week 17 who has already beat them, so this game still means a lot to them.

Seattle may have its hands full with the Cardinals defense, but Seattle is going to shred what is becoming a squad of backups at skill positions on offense for Arizona.  Beyond that, AZs already inept O took a beating last week as the Rams and Arizona hit the hell out of each other all day.  An already beat up AZ team gets a potential deadly blow to the fate of their season by Seattle.  Using a buffer for this game as the offensive production is not a guarantee like it is from the Pack.  Less than two field goals, pull the trigger.  Also interested to see what the team total numbers will be for AZ.



Posted Saturday, September 29, 2012 10:49 PM

Sunday Action for Jacksons - Week 4

Started off brutal, but back even after going 4-1 last week.

KC + 1 - My riskiest play, but Arrowhead is loud, and I love me a home dog.  SD is not what they were, and while I dont think Rivers is bad, I do not see him being good without all the weapons around him he had in years past. (I took the ML for better payout)

TB -1  Washington is demolished on D, and TB is a better team, and almost a pick em despite being at home. 

Cinci -1 @ Jac - Cinci has not looked great by anymeans, but Jacksonville has looked like a team of turds.  Blane will have another 140yd 1 TD 3 Turnover day, because those are the numbers that best represent his ability.  He sucks.   MAX BET

 



Posted Sunday, September 23, 2012 12:27 PM

Sunday Card - Winers and losers with no reasoning

Tampa + 9

St Louis / Chi 43 Over

NO - 9

KC @ NO 53 under

Jets -1

Buf @ Cle 44.5 under

Atl + 3 (Rediculous line.  Atl should be favored by 3.5) - Large Play

Hou @ Den 44.5 over

Ari +3.5

Pit -3.5  (Large play)

 



Posted Wednesday, September 12, 2012 07:11 PM

If your bankroll increased on a Vikings bet last week, "You didn't build that, you got some help!"

Remeber that when Luck wins his home opener.

Colts.

Also like Bears ML, Dallas, NO, and Pit.

Pit aint Buffalo, Bears aint the old Bears, Dallas as long as its -3.  Brees comes out blazing.  Look for the over as well in the NO and Carolina game as I suspect Cam will keep it tight.



Posted Wednesday, September 12, 2012 02:34 AM

Daa Bearss are Money

If the Bears hit +7, Split the bet and do 50% with the points, and 50% ML.  If the line stays below 7, 100% of the bet on ML.  Green Bay living on past hype, Bears may be the most well rounded team in the NFL especially with their special teams consideration.  Mark my words, Alshon Jefferies will have a better season than Justin Blackmon.  You think its random that we reunite Cutler and Marshall, and get another big WR and score more points in our debut than any game in the last 2 years?!  C'mon now.  Bears for the upset.



Posted Tuesday, September 11, 2012 12:56 PM

Week 2 in the NFL - Make it happen

Chicago ML & -6  - The oldest rivalry.  Chicago will play it tough with a high octane O. Packers have not been hot since week 13 2011.

NO -1 @ Carolina - No J. Stewart.  Brees does not lose back to back games, especially to a banged  up team with a sophmore QB and a brand new Kenny Britt,  considering he just lost to the RGII debut.  Expect Brees to regroup and put up 35+ via texted game plan from Sean Payton. 

KC/Buf under 44.5 - Both teams have solid defenses with sub par offenses.  Both teams should be run heavy and let the clock run.  Unless Spiller breaks multiple 30 yard runs, its a safe bet.

CLE +7 @ Cinci - Dalton looked defeated that Ravens game.  He will be going in with low confidence against a team that always plays tight.  Browns may not win much, but they seldom lose by more than a TD. 

Dal @ Sea over 41.5 - Romo is back.  Expect more gun slinging for Texas, go figure.  I think R. Wilson escapes some pass rushes and makes some big plays to drive up the score, but fails to win the game.

I know, they are all away games, but there is value to be had gents.  BOL this week.



Posted Tuesday, December 20, 2011 06:07 PM

FIU @ Marshall - Tuesday's business

Points per game: Advantage - FIUTime of Possesion: Advantage- FIUPenalties: Advantage - FIUYards per Game: Advantage - FIUTurnovers: Advantage - FIUYards given up per game: Advantage - FIU
I also notice the public always likes a popular school (in this case, the school a movie was made about in the last 5-6 years) vs a solid team in a scrub conference. I may be wrong betting the farm on FIU, but someone has to give me a good reason why I should not bet against Marshall.  
If you want to make certain of your play, tease it 7 points, get FIU at +3, and take Toledo.
 Lets make money.

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Posted Monday, December 19, 2011 12:33 PM

Pit @ SF - All you need to know

With a division clinched and playoffs around the corner, I think Patrick Willis sits out this game.  Even though they mathmatically could get homefield advantage, it's slim with GB and NO being the powerhouses of the conference.
Ben plays injured all the time.  He is like Farve in the sense that he should be more heavily favored the more banged up he is.  Alex Smith has had one good year.  One.  Granted SF has gone through O coordinators like nothing, so it's not all him.
At the end of the day there is a lot of value taking either the points, or Pit ML.  
I could write much more, but it all boils down to this;We have a chance to get a perinial probowl quarterback with an great cast of wide receivers in a stable organization that seems to always have success as dogs against a team that has had no coaching consistency, a quarterback that has only had 1 good year out of 7, who is probably going to sit their defensive MVP, who has not even sniffed the playoffs for years.  
My plays are locked in:2 Team - Parlay - Pittsburgh Steelers +½ (-110) 1st Half  

Pittsburgh Steelers/San Francisco 49ers o20 (+100) 1st Half 100 : 277.06

2 Team - Parlay Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+115) - Pittsburgh Steelers/San Francisco 49ers o38 (-110)  $1 unit : 310.45

Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+120) 1 unit

Pittsburgh Steelers +2½ (-110) 2 units

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Posted Wednesday, December 14, 2011 04:23 PM

Dal @ Tampa -

Dallas has just suffered back to back heart braking games.  The latest gave the division lead to the Giants.  The good news for the Cowgirls is that they still have a shot at winning their division. They are well past any type of let down spot and will be throwing the kitchen sink at teams, as they can't afford to lose another game.
Expect Romo to light it up down field early and often.  

Tampa has nothing to play for.  They have not won a game since well before they HAVE had something to play for.  This should make it 8 straight as I see no way Josh Freeman and the rest of his offense can muster up anything more than 21 points in a game since they have only done it once in their last 9.

Cowboys -6.5 is pretty good

Cowboys at pk in a tease is great

Cowboys in  a 3 team 10pt teaser puts you on the right side of a key number at +3.5.

My advice is to do a 10pt tease with 
Dal +3.5, 
NO +3.5 (in a dome at Min who have won 2 games all year, let alone beat NO by more than 3) and 
NE +4. Tebow can't win by more than a FG.

Go get your money.  


Posted Saturday, December 10, 2011 12:17 AM

Post your 3 favorite bets this week.

1. SF/Ari 38.5 under

2. KC/NYJ 36.5 under

3. Tease NO + 3 with NE -1.5  



Posted Friday, December 09, 2011 03:13 AM

Pick the best 4 bets on this Tard's card!!!

TB @ JAX UNDER 39 3 UNITS

NE @ WASH NE -8 3 UNITS

HOU@ CIN HOU +3.5  2 UNITS

KC @ NYJ UNDER 36.5 3 UNITS

NO @ TEN NO -3.5 5 UNITS

CHI @ DEN UNDER 35.5 3 UNITS

SF @ ARI SF -3.5

SF @ ARE UNDER 38.5

OAK @ GB OVER 55

NYG @ DAL UNDER 49

These are all my leans.  I am looking for insight on which to pull the trigger on.



Posted Wednesday, November 23, 2011 08:32 PM

Best 3 games on this card?

Thursday

Texas @ Texas A&M                    Over 54

Green Bay @ Detroit                    Green Bay -6

Miami @ Dallas                            Miami -7

San Francisco @ Baltimore         Baltimore -3.5

Friday

Iowa @ Nebraska                         Iowa +9.5

Houston @ Tulsa                      Houston -3 + Over

LSU @ Arkansas                      Arkansas +12

Boston College @ Miami          Boston College +14.5

Cal @ Arizona State                      Cal +5.5

Saturday

Georgia @ Georgia Tech              Georgia Tech +7

Mich State @ Northwestern       North... [More]

Posted Wednesday, November 23, 2011 08:14 PM

Is this the card of a tard?

(1) #109 - Texas/Texas A&M o53 (-110)$165.00(2) #123 - Houston U -3 (+100)$150.00(3) #123 - Houston U/Tulsa o75 (-110)$165.00(4) #125 - Iowa +9½ (-110)$165.00(5) #129 - Arkansas +11½ (-110)$165.00(6) #133 - Boston College +14 (-110)$165.00(7) #137 - California +6 (-110)$165.00(8) #157 - Clemson +4 (-110)$165.00(9) #181 - Florida State -1½ (-110)$165.00(10) #204 - USC -14 (-110)$165.00All for 1.5 units.  Reassurance and reason to worry well received.Happy Thanksgiving... [More]

Posted Friday, November 11, 2011 03:38 PM

Post your 2 favorite picks for Sat

Miss + 2  Someone said it and I subscribe.  Take any SEC team over a WAC team.  Every time.

Clem -16.5  I have gone 3-1 taking Clemson this year and like the 16.5 line.


Posted Thursday, November 10, 2011 01:19 PM

This week my card looks so square, it's a cube.

NO pk 5 units
Drew Brees may lose to the Rams, but he plays big in big games.  He is less likely to be rattled and I see him as the most influential player on the field in terms of dictating the pace.  Think Matty Ice gets smoked by 10.
 BAL -6.5 5 units
Baltimore is firing on all cylinders.  When Joe Flacco is your biggest problem, things are good.  Real good.  Rice is 150 all purpose yards and a TD almost like clockwork.  The defense is what you would expect it to be when a defense is led by Ray Lewis.  Right side of 7.  Wrong side of 6. 
NYG +3.5 5 unitsI hate Alex Smith.  I think he was hype and is nothing but a ok on his great days.  That being said, this defense is wicked.  However, how many times does Eli pull off "that win".  More often then most.  In major games, NYG is constantly dogs, more often win.  I love it being that I get it at 3.5.
PIT -3 5 unitsTime to focus for Pit.  Baltimore swept them in the season and now are in must win situations.  I do however think Baltimore is the best team in the AFC.  They bounce back with anger.
At least I don't feel on the wrong side of key numbers.  
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Posted Wednesday, November 09, 2011 12:29 PM

Is USC a good bet this weekend?

I jumped on them for a few units at -12.5 because I wanted to be on the sharper side of 13 & 14.  The line has since dropped to 11.5.  

Please talk me into or out of doubling down, or hedging my bet.  I feel like USC hit their stride, are at home, and should win by 20+.  Why is the line moving?



Posted Tuesday, November 08, 2011 11:31 AM

Week 10 NFL

Love this card.

Giants +3.5 4 units
Pit -3  4 units
Bal -6.5 4 units
NO pk 4 units

Did a 4 team par 1 unit
Round Robin 3 team par 1 unit each
Round Robin 2 team par 1 unit each

I know this is  NFL, but put a unit or 2 on USC at -12.5 before it hits 13.  Free $$!!


Posted Monday, November 07, 2011 05:12 PM

MNF- The game will run over.

Bottom line- Both teams rely on big play's.  Eagles with McCoy,Jackson and Vick with a high octane D, and Bears with Hester, Forte, and a turnover machine D.

Big plays = points.  Everyone is screaming for the under.  My logic is that Philly and company will put up points this week.  Bears play up or down to their competition.  There will be a pick 6.  There will be a fumble recovery in someone's redzone.  Points will be scored.

I say take the points (Bears could win straight up against unpredictable Philly) and make a smaller play on the over.  

Also Betting large on Bears 1st half points over 10.  



Posted Thursday, November 03, 2011 05:07 PM

Explain why CFL is the play tonight!

Central Florida has only covered once in the last 6 games.  

Tulsa spanked SMU, and Central Florida to lost to SMU straight up.  I can't even figure out why CFL is a favorite.  What am I missing?  


Posted Thursday, November 03, 2011 03:01 PM

NFL week 9 plays

Den/Oak Under 42.5 - Denver can't score.  Oakland can't score much.  Both QBs are terrible.  Tim "Tebus" sucks.  Strength of both teams is Defense and it's a division rival.  No blowouts.  Lots of clock management.  Lots of handoffs with bad QBs.

Cle +11 Cleveland is bad, but not +11 bad considering they have only lost 2 of their last 10 by DD. 2 units.

Pit -3 Pit may have blew its wad last week.  I doubt it.  I think this division rivalry knows each other inside and out.  Flacco has only beaten Big Ben once in his life.  Pit is at home and want revenge.  I see this having a lot of value at only --3.  5 units

Atl/Indy Under 45 (Indy can't score more than 10) 3 units

SF -3  (Don't ask how my local had this!)

I am here to learn, not teach, so input is always welcomed.Submit


Posted Wednesday, November 02, 2011 03:18 PM

Week 9: Short and simple

Den/Oak Under 42.5 - Denver can't score.  Oakland can't score much.  Both QBs terrible.  Tim "Tebus" is not good way over rated.  Need more?  Strength of both teams is Defense and it's a division rival.  No blowouts.  Lots of clock management.  

Cle +11 Cleveland is bad, but not +11 bad against Houston against a A. Johnson who may not play, and if he does, he is kind of rusty.  Almost always take DD dogs that can run the ball.

Pit -3 Pit may have blew its wad last week.  I doubt it.  I think this division rivalry knows each other inside and out.  I think Flacco has only beaten Big Ben once in his life.  Pit is at home.  I see this having a lot of value at only -3.

Atl/Indy Under 45 (Indy can't score more than 10)
SF -3  (Don't ask how without buying a hook!)

Make your book hate you.  


Posted Wednesday, October 26, 2011 06:25 PM

Bringing it Week 8.

If you can get Lions -3.....do it. 
I would have taken it at -5.5.  Tebow is not that great.  People want him to succeed, and thats great.  Does not translate into success.  Whole lot of hype for no reason.  Watch Detroit just eat their lunch this week.  Didn't Denver just trade B. Lloyd?  So he has who to throw to?  Should be a beating.
Love Cleveland at +9.5Bought it to +10.  SF is good, but both are stout defenses and I do not see either to have enough firepower on their O to pull ahead by DD margin.  If nothing else, Cleveland kicks a FG and fails to recover the onside with 90 seconds to go in the 4th.  Watch it happen.
Carolina -3 (buy the 1/2 point).  Cam Newton = Spread killer
Indy @ Ten Under 43.5 - 
Did anyone see Ind @ NO?  They tried to run the no huddle and half the time, half of the team did not understand their assignment.  Expect more growing pains and offense as Colts will fizzle.  Seattle will get a nice lead late and be content running the clock out to insure a W.
Usually I hate division rival road favorites, but I love San Diego -3.  Coming off a game they quit on against the Jets, and probably looking ahead to this game.  Denver has no shot at the division, OAK just got beat down with injuries and may not be a contender.  It's just KC and SDG in my opinion and San Diego will want to come back with a convincing win to charge them ... [More]

Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 09:53 AM

Early NCAAF play 7-2-1 last week

I made the mistake of taking GA Tech with points last week against the U.  Bad idea.  Line was manhandled on both sides of the ball. Option offense is incapable of coming back from substantial deficits. Clemson is playing G Tech at G Tech.  Usually don't jump all over away favorites, but I see this being another beating.  

Clemson -4 (line should be closer to 6 or 7 by kick, so jump on it early)

Last Week:
Clemson  (In dominating fashion)
Notre 
OK St.  
SOFL  (not touching them again this season)
Whisky 
CAL  
FL St. 
TTech 
Vandy 
Houston 

Unfortunately I went with the public like a chump and jumped all over Whiskey on my biggest play of the year because my local had it at 7.  Should have listened to old advice; "Locks don't exist, especially in college."  Oh well, broke about even.  



Posted Saturday, November 20, 2010 12:50 PM

Why is nobody talking about these games?!

I like Cleveland + 1 @ Jacksonville.  They have beaten NE and NO since McCoy took over and kept it close with the Jets.  Jacksonville's wins are not impressive.  HOU, DAL and BUF are their last 3 wins, however they haven't lost to anyone short of good this year.  
GB - 3 @ Min.  Bret Farve is old and done, Everyone on GB is young and peaking.  GB smashes Min so Chi does not run away with a division lead.
LOVE ATL - 3 @ STL.  STL is a .500 team.  ATL has Superbowl potential.  ATL wins this match-up 4/5 times and we all know it.
Sea + 12 @ NO.  Nobody gives any love to Sea and the public still is weary about leaning NO spreads because of their dominance last year.  This is this year.
I like IND +4 @ NE.  Brady is Mossless and the running game has been working, but Im not convinced its a solid consistent thing.  I believe that with Moss gone, teams will very soon figure them out because they can only use short fields.  
Phi -3 hosting NYG.  I'm convinced that Vick has learned how to pass and takes this opportunity seriously.  Hes had it, lost it all, and got a second break.  

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