Posted Thursday, November 12, 2009 06:52 PM
How I pick a team:
-I would look through my spread sheet and
pick out teams that were hitting, on a regular basis, one or both
-I also had a list of fade teams and bet on teams. Fade teams
would be teams on the bottom of the rankings or consistently losing the
1Q/3Q.. Teams I would play would be teams on top of the rankings.
-Other parameters would be the spread had to be 7 or less, because I saw
a lot of losses for both dogs and faves for spreads 7.5 and up.
Changes in the system:
-Airmail26-A poster in my thread, hit 10-0-1 one day betting home teams only on the 1Q/2half. I've looked at both the home fave and home dog angle in the past but back testing didn't do too well based on the parameters set above. So I decided to revisit it
once again and instead of putting any kind of parameters, I just looked
at each home team regardless of dog or fave or spreads. From the beginning of 09 season to Nov 11, 2009, the home team hit at about 79%. In my thread, I stated that it was up 100
units, but I did the math wrong. I counted the loss on the 3q but forgot to count the loss on the 1Q.
With that info, it wouldn't make a lot of money...
-Unless you use a
martingale system to chase. But if you're hitting almost 8 out of 10
teams, then you will win the chase. But instead of doubling the 3Q, I think it would be profitable to spread the loss of a couple of games.