hute92's Blog

Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 11:37 AM

Why TOR -120 is a lock against Shields

Shields @ Dickey -120

-          The Blue Jays have won 9 straight, KC has lost 7 of 9.

-          James Shields is a good pitcher, and has been throughout his career, but Jose Bautista is 9 for 21/ 4HR, and Adam Lind is 13 for 51/ 5 HR against Shields. Lind is hitting .381/1.093 in 61 AB against RHP.

-          TOR has the better bull pen over the last 5 (2.25/4.70.)

-          Dickey has tossed 7 straight quality starts and is coming off an 8 IP, 5H, 2ER against Oakland.

-          KC has hit .237, and scored 2.96 R/9 against RHP in their last 5.

-          Steve Tolleson is hitting.375 at home, and leads the list of six Blue Jays not named Jose Bautista, who crack the top 50 in OPS-last 7 (Tolleson, Lind, Encarnacion, Pillar, Reyes, and Fransisco.)

... [More]

Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 04:41 PM

Why Toronto -1.5 +175 is a good bet

TOR -1.5 +170 vs. TB

  • TOR has won 8 straight,
  • Chris Archer has allowed RHB to hit .308/.833 OPS/ 6.45 ERA, making him the 4th worst pitcher on the board tonight against RHB. This could mean good news for Bautista and Encarnacion, who bat from the right side, and Reyes and Melky, who are both switch hitters.
  • TOR is #2 in OPS against RHP at .783.
  • Archer has allowed 19 BB in his last 5 starts.
  • TB is #18 in OPS against RHP at .697.
  • TOR is #1 in HR against RHP with 52, even though they are #18 in AB.
  • Liam Hendricks allowed only 3 hits, and 1 run against OAK in his first start of the season.
  • TB starting pitchers ERA is 6.25 in the last 5.


Posted Wednesday, May 21, 2014 02:01 PM

Why PHI @ MIA is going OVER 7.5

PHI@MIA-OVER 7.5

-          The OVER is 23-16 in Philly games, and 28-14 in Miami games.

-          Eovaldi has a 6.06 ERA in his last three starts, and LHB have hit him better than RHB (.276/.231.) That should be good news for Rollins (homered in two straight,) Asche (7 for last 15 with 6 RBI,) and Howard, whose splits are better v/R (.252/.217,) and on the road (.278/.194.) Ruiz is 5 for 14 against Eovaldi.

-          Kyle Kendrick is the 5th worst pitcher on the board against RHB (.292/.744/4.71.)

-          MIA 1B Garret Jones is 11 for 24 with 1 HR and 6 RBI in his last 6 games, and prefers a RHP (.295/.205.) In his career he’s 4 for 12 with a homer against Kendrick. Casey McGhee prefers righties (.331/.152) and to be at home (.365/.227.) Giancarlo Stanton continues his MVP bid and prefers to be at home as well (.341/.284.)

 

... [More]

Posted Wednesday, May 21, 2014 01:54 PM

Why BAL +100 @ PIT is a lock

BAL +100 @ PIT

-          Wandy Rodriguez has a 6.84 ERA, and is the 3rd worst pitcher on the board this evening against RHB (.255/.780 OPS/4.57ERA in 290 PA.) Adam Jones is crushing LHP (.424/.236 v/R,) and is hitting .320 on the road. He’s 4 for 9 with 4 RBI in his last two games. Nelson Cruz also has favorable splits vs. LHP (.359/.246) and on the road (.313/.217.) JJ Hardy is a terrible baseball player, but is 6 for 23 with 2 HR against Wand-Rod.

-          Chris Davis hit 3 HR last night and could be heating up a BAL team that has scored 15 runs in their last two, after scoring 2 or less in five of the previous seven.

-          L 5 Pen ERA favors BAL (2.35/4.97,) as does L 5 SP ERA (2.48/6.14)

-          C. Tillman has allowed only 6 ER over his last three starts, and is coming off a complete game domination of the Royals. He’s holding righties to .224/.681, which could offset McCutchen, and Marte, who has been hot recently.

... [More]

Posted Wednesday, May 21, 2014 12:13 PM

Why SEA +117 @ TEX is a lock

Seattle +117@ Texas

-          RHB (.225) could struggle against Tepesch, but his home/road split scares me (.303, .851 OPS, and 5.02 ERA in last 9 home starts.)His .295/.816/5.68 vs. LHB is second worst of any pitcher on the board tonight, and the Mariners have some decent LHB. Cano is 16 for 35 over his last 9 games and home runs may be easier to come by in road parks such as the one in Arlington. Smoak hits .281 on the road and .172 at home. Michael Saunders hits .304 on the road and 0.95 at home, he’s 7 for 16. With 5 RBI in his last 4 games, and he’s priced nicely Draft Street at $4,545.

-          Seattle is 14-12 on the road, and 8-10 at home.

-          The Mariner’s Pen hasn’t given up a run in their last 5 games.

-          Chris Young has a 1.80 ERA in 15 daytime innings this year.

-          Texas has zero players in the top 50 of OPS over the last 7 days

... [More]

Posted Monday, May 19, 2014 07:41 AM

Start these guys in your Daily Leagues....

(Batting Average vs. LHP/ Batting Average vs. RHP)

It’s a smaller sample size with only 68 PA, but Scott Carroll (RHP) gets absolutely blasted by LHB. Lefties are hitting .393 with a 1.033 OPS, and striking out only 0.7% of the time. Carroll also wins the award for worst road pitcher on the board (.348/.902/1.6 K/9.) This might mean a nice spot start opportunity for Alex Gordon. Though he’s hitting .261 v/RHP, and .222 at home, he is nearly min priced on FD at $2300. Eric Hosmer (.255/.313) is another candidate for a solid evening, although his home/road splits (.231/.348) don’t instill too much confidence.

Lefties have hit only .164 against Drew Smiley (LHP,) which makes the suddenly red hot David Murphy (.216/.304) less valuable.

Jason Vargas (LHP) has had a tough time lately with LHB (.297/ 7.25,) which could mean good things for Conor Gillaspie (.296/.348) who is 6 for his last 13 over the last three days. The same can’t be said for Alexi Ramirez (.237/.346.) who is 4 for 21 in his last 6.

Dallas Kuechel (LHP) is the second worst pitcher on the board tonight in terms of BAA/OPSA. Righties are hitting .286/.780 and lefties aren’t much worse at .279/.733. This makes Mike Trout (.333/.237) even more appealing than usual, and 2B Grant Green (.438/.222) matches up quite nicely as well. He’s hit safely in 8 of the last 9 games he’s started, and he is nearly min priced across the board. Hank Conger (.333/.291) remains a nice option at catcher a... [More]

Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2014 06:03 PM

Top 5 PF and C plays tonight

Top 5 position vs. defense mismatches for PF:

1.       Derek Favors vs. DAL (29th)

2.       Tristan Thompson @ PHO (27th)

3.       Tobias Harris vs. DEN (26th)

4.       Jason Thompson and Derrick Williams @ PHI (25th)

5.       Zach Randolph @ NO (24th)

Top 5 position vs. defense mismatches for C:

1.       Andray Blatche @ MIA (30th)

2.       Nikola Vucevic vs. DEN ( 29th)

3.       DeMarcus Cousins @ PHI (27th)

4.       Jared Sullinger vs. NY (26th)

5.       Robin Lopez  @ SA (25th)

 

... [More]

Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2014 06:01 PM

Top 5 small forward plays tonight

Daily Mismatch Report: 3-12-14

 (FPPG allowed Last 15 days):

Top 5 position vs. defense mismatches for SF:

1.       Rudy Gay @ PHI (29th)

2.       Aaron Afflalo and Maurice Harkless vs. DEN ( 27th)

3.       Carmello Anthony @ BOS ( 26th)

4.       Wilson Chandler @ ORL (25th)

5.       Marcus Morris vs. CLE (24th)

 

... [More]

Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2014 05:58 PM

Top 5 shooting guard plays for tonight

Top 5 position vs. defense mismatches for SG:

1.       James Anderson vs. SAC (30th)

2.       DeMar DeRozan vs. DET (29th)

3.       Gerald Green vs. CLE (27th)

4.       Wesley Mathews @ SA (26th)

5.       Jared Bayless vs. NYK (25th)

 

 

... [More]

Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2014 05:57 PM

Top 5 Point Guard plays for tonight

Daily Mismatch Report: 3-12-14

Top 5 position vs. defense mismatches for PG (Last 15 days):

1.       Isaiah Thomas vs. PHI (30th in FPPG allowed vs. PG)

2.       Goran Dragic vs. CLE (27th)

3.       Kyrie Irving @ PHO (25th)

4.       Jameer Nelson vs. DEN (26th)

5.       Mike Conley @ NO (24th)

... [More]

Posted Wednesday, March 05, 2014 06:57 PM

Daily Fantasy Basketball Report

Though Dirk Nowitzki is usually a safer play at home, the Nuggets front court defense is atrocious right now.  Kevin Love might tell you they’ve had a little trouble defending underneath without fouling. In their last three games, Denver has fouled opponents 27.7 times per game, which is second worst to only New Orleans who sits at 30. Denver also ranks #25 overall in defending the paint this year, allowing 44.6 PPG.

With Kevin Garnett out of the lineup for the 3rd straight game, Andray Blatche will get another start. Over his last three games Blatche has averaged 35.1 FPPG, and though the Memphis defense ranks #1 against centers overall and #4 in the last 8 games played, he’s still capable of putting up 15-10-3-3.

Amare Stoudemire’s price across the board has hit the floor, and though it’s unclear if he’s starting again, the Knicks have lost 8 straight and have nothing to lose by increasing his minutes.

Small Forward

Harkless- put up solid points in 4 straight and plays vs. HOU

Batum 42.1 FPPG L5, and plays ATL

Jimmy Butler

... [More]

Posted Tuesday, May 28, 2013 05:51 PM

Batter vs. Pitcher Notes MLB - 5 picks

Avila, Cabrera, Fielder, Infante, Hunter, and Don Kelly each have a career OPS higher than 1.000 in 42 total appearances vs. Geanmar Gomez.  In my opinion Detroit will cover the -1.5, which they have done in 4 of the 6 wins of their current 6-1 stretch, but the 9.5 is too high to take the OVER. Until yesterday PIT had gone 14 straight games with under 9.5 total runs. 6 of DET last 10 have been under 9.5.

Ryan Howard (5 for 14, 2 HR, 7 RBI) is the only Philly of note with any significant history against Dempster. In their last 10 vs. RHP Philly has scored 1.89 r/9, and hit .211. In contrast, Ortiz, Pedroia, and Ellsbury are a combined 12 for 59 with 0 HR against Cliff Lee.  

St. Louis is on a 5-1 stretch, and has covered -1.5 in 5 of their last 6 wins, and on the other side Kansas City is on a 1-10 skid and have lost by 2 or more in 5 of their last 6 losses.

The White Sox are 7-2 when Chris Sale pitches and the UNDER is 7-1-1. His counterpart Edwin Jackson has contributed to the Cubs’ failures to the tune of 2-8 on the season. The Sale/Under parlay has hit four times in a row.

Cincinnati is on a nice 6-1 run and have covered -1.5 in 5 of the 6 wins. When Matt Latos pitches the Reds are 8-2 this year, and the Latos/Reds -1.5/OVER parlay has happened in four straight. The Indians counter with a 1-6 record in their last 7 and a bull pen with an 8.01/1.75 in its last 10. Five of the six losses were by -1... [More]

Posted Friday, May 24, 2013 04:15 PM

Batter vs. Pitcher Notes MLB - 2 picks

5-24-13

Today’s Hot List:

-          Billy Butler 8 for 16 and 3 HR/ 1.829 OPS vs. Vargas

-          Curtis Granderson 17 for 39 and 3 HR vs. Hernandez

-          Desmond, Harper, and Suzuki are a combined 19 for 43 and 4 HR vs. Kendrick

-          D. Freese, M. Carpenter, and A. Craig are 12 for 20 with 2 HR lifetime vs. Capuano

Today’s Cold List:

-          Morneau/Willingham 5 for 22 vs. A.Sanchez

-          The entire Royals line-up vs. Vargas and LAA bullpen, with Billy Butler being the exception.

-          M.Reynolds, A.Cabrerra, and C.Santana are a combined 6 for 36 and 14 K’s against Lackey.

-          David Wright 2 for 16 and 7 K’s lifetime vs. K. Medlen.

In limited sample size: [More]

Posted Friday, May 24, 2013 02:10 PM

Today's hot/cold hitters

5-24-13

Today’s Hot List:

-          Billy Butler 8 for 16 and 3 HR/ 1.829 OPS vs. Vargas

-          Curtis Granderson 17 for 39 and 3 HR vs. Hernandez

-          Desmond, Harper, and Suzuki are a combined 19 for 43 and 4 HR vs. Kendrick

-          D. Freese, M. Carpenter, and A. Craig are 12 for 20 with 2 HR lifetime vs. Capuano

Today’s Cold List:

-          Morneau/Willingham 5 for 22 vs. A.Sanchez

-          The entire Royals line-up vs. Vargas and LAA bullpen, with Billy Butler being the exception.

-          M.Reynolds, A.Cabrerra, and C.Santana are a combined 6 for 36 and 14 K’s against Lackey.

-          David Wright 2 for 16 and 7 K’s lifetime vs. K. Medlen.

In limited sample size:

... [More]

Posted Tuesday, May 07, 2013 12:52 PM

Today's 2-team MLB Parlays: Fade MIL/O 4-1

5-7-13

Every day I analyze each matchup page for every MLB game. I like taking note of the streaks. Here is what I found:

Detroit is 9-1 in their last 10, and A. Sanchez (U 4-1) has posted 5 straight QS. They are facing J. Zimmerman (U 4-1) and the under may be worth a look tonight, however the Detroit/OVER parlay is 7-5 in its last 12.

Fading Milwaukee with the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 games and they send W. Peralta (1.67, 6.00) to the hill against Grimm (1.27, 2.28.)

If you’ve been betting the alternate run line (-2.5 runs) against Houston lately, you’ve gone 7-3 in your last 10. Fading HOU with the over is 7-3 in the last 10 as well, and they’re playing the Angels who have an over of 5-2 in their last 7 and are 21-10 (OVER) on the year.

Cleveland is quietly 7-1 in their last 8 and the over is 6-2-1 in that stretch. The parlay cashed 6 out of 8 times, and all seven of Cleveland’s wins during the streak have covered the alternate run line (-2.5 runs.) Not to mention they’re playing Oakland. We all know about the A’s OVER run which is 12-3 as of late.

 



Posted Friday, May 03, 2013 03:37 PM

AL BREAKDOWN 5-3-13

AL BREAKDOWN 5-3-13

8.5 TWINS@CLE- Solid starting pitching (Hernandez 2.35, 1.17 in 15 innings) could be offset by CLE .321, 8.50 r/9 in L10 vs. LHP, and MIN good history (Florimon Dozier Parmalee) against Masterson. 1st 5 over might be a play. Both bullpens are hot at the moment.

8 NYY @ OAK- Here we have a nice OVER vs. OVER situation- Combined OVER of 9-1 in L5. OAK OVER of 24-5 on the season. The number has been at 8 or 8.5 in 9 of OAK L10, and in those games the Over is 9-1. Tonight’s is set at 8. Though Sabathia has proven to throw 8 quality innings on a regular basis, and Moss, Donaldson, and Cespedes are a combined 1-18 against him, Sabathia has still given up 5 HR in his L2 starts. AJ Griffin started the year with 3 straight gems but has now cooled (11 ER in 11 IP in L2.)

7.5 SEA @ TOR- Bluejays bullpen 6.75 L5. There’s usually one top to bottom lopsided pitching match- up. M’s bullpen 2.50 L5 and Felix Hernandez is on fire. Romero finished 2012 strong but is a complete question mark.  Ackley, Bay and Montero all have an OPS over 1.000 against Romero. Morse seems to be back in stride as well.

9 BOS @ TEX- BOS is batting .282, 6.32 r/9 and TEX is batting .276, 4.50 vs. LHP in L10. OVER is 7-2-1 in BOS L10. Bullpen ERA L10: BOS 5.54 and TEX 5.11. Beltre, Cruz and Kinsler have had success against Dubront in a small sample size of 16 combined AB. For the record, Ortiz, Pedroia, and Ellsburry are a comb... [More]

Posted Monday, January 12, 2009 02:38 PM

Eat it G-Men; we Stomped you out!

Think Eli is still better than Peyton? What happend to punding the rock and utilizing play action? What happened to Coughlin? Brad Childress thought that was bad coaching. And dont tell me it's because of Plaxico Burress, it's not. The Eagles stomped you out because Eli Manning looks at his shoes during a quarterback sneak. As tough as that was to have home-field advantage, it's even tougher to throw a spiral. Have a good off season boys, I'm sure you'll be ready for weeks 1-10 next year.


Posted Thursday, January 08, 2009 12:29 PM

Thursday Love

Thursday Picks

 

PIT -110 @ Nashville- 1 unit

CHI -170 @COL- 3 units

PHI -160 vs MIN- 1 unit

 

FLA -5.5 -110 – 1 unit

 

LAC +900 @ SA - .20 units

DET +2 -110 @ DEN- 2 units

DET is 3-1 ATS on no rest, DEN is 5-5

DET is 6-2 ATS in L 6 @ DEN

DET 12-4 ATS in L 16 meetings



Posted Monday, August 18, 2008 03:34 PM

Braves Smell Something Barry Zito-licious

Today I noticed a couple of trends in the Giants at Braves game that should be taken note of.

 

In day games LHP Barry Zito is 1-6, with an 8.50 ERA, and 2.22 WHIP. The day/night splits aren’t always a lock, but I have a feeling this one is because it’s game 4 of a four-game series and Campillo needs to pitch well to even the series, instead of lose 3-1. Jorge Campillo is 4-1, 2.05 and 0.95 in day games, but has given up 17 ER in his last 23.2 IP. The Braves are 5-1 in game 4’s this year, and are 4-0 in game 4’s after a loss.

 

Zito actually pitched fairly well in his last start allowing two hits in the first 5 IP. The bullpen helped him surrender 5 earned runs in the 6th to provide him with his 15th loss.

 

The Braves are hitting .296 against LHP in their last 10 games and scoring 5.40 runs/9 innings.

 

Do you either:

A)    Take the money line at poor value (-230) because you know the braves are going to win?

B)     Bet on the run line (Braves -1.5 @ -120) because it’s better value?

C)    Say screw the Braves, and take the (OVER 8.5 @ -110) because Campillo has given up 10 ER in his last 2 starts, and Barry... [More]

Posted Thursday, August 14, 2008 12:31 PM

***SF@HOU In-Game***

***SF@HOU***

HOU -176

UNDER 9 -115

 

Important Trends: UNDER is 14-2 when Moehler starts a game this year and the UNDER is 11-3 in San Fran’s last 14 games overall.

Added Bonus: SF is batting .261, and scoring 2.66 runs/9 in their last 10 against RHP. The UNDER is also 13-9 when Jerry Lane is umpiring, and UNDER has resulted in 3 of his last 4 games overall.

Buyer Beware: The Giants pen is one the Yankees think needs work. These guys are bad right now. The Giants bullpen has an 8.31 ERA in the last five, and a 7.96 in the last 10. HOU on the other hand is crushing the ball early and late.



Posted Tuesday, August 12, 2008 02:35 PM

I know the Twins better than my wife

The Yankees aren't looking at the scouting report on Twins RHP Nick Blackburn and thinking, " Wow I'm glad we get a shot at this righty tonight. We desperately need to win this series and the stakes are high for game 2 and or 3." They're not thinking that at all. They are thinking, in my opinion, " Gee I would really like to have Joba Chamberlain pitching tonight."
 
Logically speaking, the Joba injury has a huge affect on the team morale at this point. It's the only excuse the Yankees have to their disposal should things get really bad for Girardi.
 
Blackburn has been the un-sung hero in the Twins rotation all year long, and he's gotten no love in Scott Baker's shaddow.
 
I look for Blackburn to keep things going tonight with 7 IP, 2 ER.
 
It's also worth noting the Twins are indeed licking their chops at that bullpen.


Posted Tuesday, August 12, 2008 02:20 PM

Is this trend worth noting?

Would it be worth betting the UNDER in favor of Odalis Perez completely based on the following Covers.com Top 5 Trend stat:
Under is 10-0 in Perezs last 10 home starts.
 
???


Posted Monday, August 11, 2008 08:34 AM

2-0 Sunday...Pick of the day: ***BAL@CLE***

OVER 9.5 (-110)
OVER has played in last 3 meetings and 7 of Carmona's last 8 home starts.
BAL is hitting .298 in their last 10 games against RHP
Both Carmona and Sarfate in their last 3 starts, have WHIPS of 1.89 and 2.00, ERA's of 10.66 and 10.29, and the OVER is 5-0.


Posted Sunday, August 10, 2008 02:19 AM

HOU - C.Lee = value on OVER Sunday?

"It's tough to lose him," Houston manager Cecil Cooper said. "It didn't look good. He carried us the last month and a half. It's a big hole to fill, but we're capable of filling it. I'm just now starting to suck it up."
 
I wouldn't say it's a good thing to lose C.Lee for the next 2-4 weeks. The question is how long it takes Berkman to fill in, and produce for two.
 
Both Volquez and Rodriguez are good pitchers, but both have pitched horribly in their last two starts. Furthermore, Cincy hits lefties better, and Houston hits righty's better.
 
By the way the Umpire Jerry West is known to be streaky with the totals. the OVER is 13-10, and 3 of his last 4... Can you say 10.52 runs per game?
 
 


Posted Sunday, August 10, 2008 02:04 AM

the Liriano Train has left the station

"My slider was good and my changeup was good," Liriano said. (I witnessed this kid first hand in 06, and he’s money now. We can now safely ride the Liriano train to the bank.

 

"Frankie threw the ball good," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "I think the long [fifth] inning might have got to him a little bit. I think he had a better breaking ball and changeup than he had a fastball. He pumped his fastball when he needed it and it had some life on it. It was a good performance by him.

 

Analysis: Man does Ron Gardenhire love us media freaks or what? Thanks Gardy for something to further engage in now that we know how money Liriano is. In my opinion, the strikeouts will soon be here.



Posts:  1 2  

Profile

User: hute92
Joined: July 2008
Location:
Team:
Occupation:

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories