i-fuck-on-the-f's Blog

Some days I love poker, but not today....

By i-fuck-on-the-f | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, June 19, 2010 06:45 PM   30 comments

So I'm playing in an online tournament, 39 people registered.

We are down to six people.

Top five people get paid.

I'm second in chips.

The chip leader makes a standard raise in early position, it folds around to me, and I'm on the button with jacks.  I call.

The blinds both fold.

The flop comes AJ3, rainbow board. I'm ecstatic.

He leads out with a bet, I make a minimum raise, and he instantly goes all in. Of course I'm calling, the only hand that beats me is AA.

He flips over AK, and I'm a 96%+ favorite.

The turn is an Ace.....and the river is a King.

What a sickening way to bubble.

30 comments
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Iveycheats says:
06/19/10 07:28PM
Tippster says:
06/19/10 10:07PM

Listen to this One.  Playing a poker tournanet 25k guaranteed on pokerstars.  Over 6000 player s with a 5$ buyin.  Was 2nd in chips and after playing 12 hours was down to final table, still second in chips. 

Had Pocket 9s...was a small raise by chip leader so I called.  Flop was 9 9 10.  I was out of position so the chip leader goes all in and I was in heaven with my quads.  Dude had 10 10 and on the river hits his quad 10s to beat my quad 9s.  Was out in 9th place with 270$.  Winner was to get close to 6k.  So pissed.

i-fuck-on-the-f says:
06/20/10 02:25PM

 

Wow. That's obviously a sick beat, but believe it or not, mine was worse from a math standpoint.

When all your money went in, you were a 95.54% favorite. I was a 96.83% favorite.

But yeah, losing with quads is pretty brutal. I don't think I've ever done that.

Iw1nBets says:
06/21/10 09:21AM
yup lost my quads to a royal flush
Iw1nBets says:
06/21/10 09:22AM
what blew my mind about it was... why did he have to get royal flush on the few occassions I actually hit quads.
samuelsosa says:
06/21/10 11:42PM

Interesting...

One time I was playing a tournament something like 2500FPP or some number 9 ppl top 3 got into the SUNDAY MILLIONS aka 215$

5 people left and I have AJ suited I raise pre-flop and A10 calls.

flop 2 4 J rainbow...I forgot who pushed but we end up all in, or at least I do...turn 10 river 10...I would of been chip leader and on my way to cashing for 215$ but instead i am out

butttttttt

One time I was playing a micro tourney 2-3 dollars and I ended up all in with 10 10 vs 5 5 I kid you not flop was 2 5 5...turn 10 river 10  I saved the screenshot. 99.9 percent favorite when he hit quads on the flop.

I played the lotto that night and lost

mr_bollox says:
06/22/10 02:12AM
some horrific 


Iw1nBets says:
06/23/10 05:21AM
Iw1nBets says:
07/20/10 01:34AM
Gunners says:
07/20/10 09:46AM

that sucks man.  This would have been hard to do, but you could have folded that set.  as you said, you were 1 place out of the money with the second biggest stack, and you decided to tangle with the chip leader.  There were 4 other guys at the table with lower stacks than you and you put your money on the line against the only guy that could knock you out, one place before the money.  You had a set, but you didn't have the nuts.  You could have folded.  Still sucks.  but in that position, you could have folded. 

If someone with a bigger stack than you went all-in before the flop and it came to you to make a decision, folding AA is probably the right move. 

Amp says:
07/20/10 10:31AM

Spoken like someone who has never won a tournament, I love guys like you, too scared to play a hand when it gets close to the bubble.  Did you play the tournament to min cash?  Or to win it?  Put your chips in when you have the best hand, don't fold your way to 5'th place

Gunners says:
07/20/10 10:46AM

haha, no man.  that's not it.  he's talking about a tournament where he was at the final table as 2nd in chips, one more person to knock out to get in the money. 

If i'm in a 2000 person tournament and i'm one place out of cashing at 350th place or whatever, i'd never lay down the best hand to be worried about a draw. 

But if i'm 2nd in chips, one place out of the money in a tournament that only plays 5 places, and the chip leader goes all-in on me, after raising preflop from EARLY position, then betting post flop, and re-raising all in, and i didn't have the nuts, i would have thought about folding.  And i certainly wouldn't complain about it afterwards if i called and lost.  He EASILY could have had AA in that scenario.  The important thing to note here are that he tangled with the only guy that could knock him out, at the absolute worst time in the tournament to do it. 

I'm not saying it's an easy laydown or anything, but a great poker player might lay that down.  I'm not a great poker player, I probably would have called.   but there is an argument to laying down the hand.  that's all i'm saying.  If he layed it down, he'd be third in chips or something, and then the short stack would have busted out, and who knows, maybe he would have won the tournament.  instead, he called, and lost.  So you're telling me that i'm scared?  doesn't compute. 

Weathered says:
07/20/10 10:53AM

I actually have to agree with Amp here.

With only 39 players entered I have to imagine the lions share of the prize pool is with first place.

There is no reasonable excuse to fold here.

Folding and trying to backdoor 4th or 5th is not only fairly insane but it's far less EV than taking the huge overall chip to prize equity this situation offering him.

If you would honestly consider folding the 2nd nuts, as the 2nd stack, against the 1st stack, on the bubble (and very short bubble to boot, he wins this hand and he pretty much can cruise to 2nd place and he is probably a 85% favorite to win the tournament) then tournament Poker is probably not for you.

A couple of years ago I read a blog about all the top WPT players, in fact this blog has the stats of every single person who has ever cashed on the WPT.

And it was funny to see a few of the guys who had the highest % of cashed were actually losing money playing the circuit.

Having a goal of just cashing a Poker tournament is a quick way to find yourself losing alot of money.

Amp says:
07/20/10 10:54AM

No, not saying that your scared, maybe I just play more aggresive than you?  Sure, your opponent could have had AA, but it's hard for us to say, we weren't at the table to see how he played the rest of his hands.  Different styles of play, thats all.

Where in NY are you from?  Ever play in the poker rooms upstate?  Turning stone?  Seneca?

Weathered says:
07/20/10 10:55AM

There is no great player in the world who would have laid that hand down.

I promise you this.

Amp says:
07/20/10 11:00AM

Agreed, I have never seen someone lay down the second nuts on the flop when the nuts was top set

Weathered says:
07/20/10 11:07AM

Also I dont claim to be a great Tournament player.

In fact while in the past I used to play some Tournaments today I'm strictly a Cash Game player.

I'm just talking basic mathematical Expectation here.

Something all Poker players should have a mastery of but THANKFULLY  less than 5% of them do.

95% of all people who play Tournaments dont have any clue that the size of their stack has to be compared the A) The structure of the prize pool, B) The amount of players left in the tournament, and C) The structure of the times levels.

You can at all times put a value on how effectively risking your entire stack vs the potential long term cash payout expected is.

In this spot, under these circumstances the long term benefit far outwieghts any short-term bad luck.

So in fact there is so much positive expected value in this scenario that I will repeat my statement again.

There is no great player in the world who would walk away from this spot.

Gunners says:
07/20/10 11:12AM

you're probably right about having the second nuts, and going for it.  I would have called. 

But what if he came on here and said he had AJ? 

The point is, tangling with the chip leader at your table, while you're the 2nd in chips, and the chip leader is playing aggressively, while you're one place out of the money = bad idea. 

That's all i'm saying. 

Weathered says:
07/20/10 11:16AM

If he had AJ it's still an insta-call. While his EV has gone down of course it's still a + play.

And what I'm trying to explain here is that this statement:

The point is, tangling with the chip leader at your table, while you're the 2nd in chips, and the chip leader is playing aggressively, while you're one place out of the money = bad idea. 

Is 100000000% mathematically incorrect.

You guys have to stop watching Poker on TV and start reading some books on Expected Value for Gamblers.

If you ever want to have any chance at winning money at gambling (be it Poker, Sports Betting...whatever) you have to learn that the whole science of all these games are based on nothing more than math.

Learn the math, win the money. The end.

 

Weathered says:
07/20/10 11:20AM
If you want to agrue with AJ he should have laid down PRE-FLOP thats a different story
Gunners says:
07/20/10 11:23AM

mathematically incorrect if you're playing endless amounts of tournaments and making your living as a poker player.  what if it was the world series of poker?  you finally had your chance to win big, and you tangled with the chip leader at the worst time?  

I understand what you are saying and it makes sense for professionals.  I'm not arguing against that at all. 

As for me, i'm in NYC and i don't generally go upstate.  I've played at the Borgata a lot and at Foxwoods.  But mostly just online, casually. 

Amp says:
07/20/10 11:30AM

The point is, in your theory your worried about cashing, not winning, if you fold there, your giving the chip leader an even bigger advantage, while putting yourself in 3'rd or maybe 4'th in chips, then having to get lucky to get back to having a shot to win it.  It's a much better bet that he doesn't have AA rather than trying to double up again in a later hand

Gunners says:
07/20/10 11:47AM

yes, you're right.  i try to get into the money before i try to win.  i only play these long tournaments once in a while and after playing for 5 hours, the thought of losing one spot before the money is devastating to me.  i hate the thought of it.  it's probably not good long-term poker strategy. 

It's a rare occurance that i'd be 2nd in chips and facing the chip leader one place out of the money, though.  this doesn't happen every tournament.  it's very rare, and if it did happen once, i'd be a little more cautious.  i don't think i'm terribly wrong in that logic, but to each his own. 

Weathered says:
07/20/10 11:53AM

Ok fair enough. I live in Bergen Co. NJ so not far from you at all.

But I play a ton of Poker. And as I guess you can tell I take it more than seriously lol.

I must have a magic account because I have somehow found a way to win online for the past 9 years, but i'm thankfull that the people who rig the sites somehow choose not to rig my account.

I try to log around 50 hours a month playing live in Atlantic City. Around five 10 hour sessions a month or so.

So I guess if your just a recreational player or it's a huge tournament then i can see your point. Just not how I look at things thats all. As a cash game player it is always correct to take every mathematical advantage you can, ALL the time.

But again no PRO would ever walk away from that spot, something you did imply could happen.

Good luck at the tables

Gunners says:
07/20/10 11:57AM

OK, i concede that.  thanks and same to you

Weathered says:
07/20/10 11:59AM

Your actually not alone. I'n fact your in the majority.

But you have to know that the pro's and better players will pray on you.

I can promise you that you have been pushed around and bullied to no end in almost every single tournament you have come close to the bubble in.

When I did play tournaments I looked for this spot to build my chips and take a run at the final table/win.

There are probably dozens of books with chapters about taking advantage of weak/tight players during bubble play.

You statement about playing for 5 hours and just wanting something from it is actually pretty valid. It's actually one of the minor reasons i stopped playing tournaments.

If your worried about that your better off just playing cash games.

Gunners says:
07/20/10 12:13PM

i usually do, because normally i only have a half hour to an hour to play.  But in the rare occurance that i get the chance to devote 5 hours to a tournament, i'll join for the chance to win a big amount.  And generally speaking, i don't play too too tight around the bubble, i was just speaking about being 2nd in chips, with a chance to win the whole tournament, and then blowing it all to the chip leader. 

BIGfnPOO says:
01/19/11 04:30AM
yea thats tuff and he gave u a chance to lay it down, e.p./chip leader u put him any pr to axs so thats tuff but if he was a good plyr not loose and he only plyd say aa=10-10 akaqaja-10s there well u can throw jj away on bubble.....u know more then not he got 2 overs...y gamble here gamble 5handed....just being devils advocate, i done what u done in yr posit w/ much much worse....but there is always a reason to throw a hand away...read that again,....ok we be bukkin heads soon...gd luk ...jets +170 get that $$
BIGfnPOO says:
01/19/11 04:33AM
o he gave 2 chances lol cmon im breakin balls....screwin around just playin .... i would put him all in preflop and been done w/it in honesty...truthfully speaking...thats a real fish hahahaha
BIGfnPOO says:
01/19/11 04:34AM
i saw lou the big cheese lay down a royal just to see what it felt like to lose ahahahahah
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