investments4you's Blog

Oregon Auburn Thoughts

By investments4you | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, December 11, 2010 04:32 PM   52 comments
What up fellas, Been away a while,, Stayed in touch with some of ya,, Hope everybody is doing good,,  Bowl Season is about to start,, I will start a thread for that,, Anyway,, Just wanted to pick your brain about the Auburn Oregon game,,, I  am leaning the Ducks as of now,,  still not totally committed tho..  Looks like a slow day in here since only 1 game,, I will check back later,, or when i start the Bowl season... Christmas almost here,, or Whatever holiday you celebrate.  For all the long time covers buds,, Keep being smart and patient.. I have seen some of your plays  while talkin on the tweety bird..  Thats a cool feature they added to this site.... Anyway,, seems like quite a few of you on a good roll..   keep it up,,

I am on Army for the game goin on now,, thats gonna be tough one to cover,, That fumble is killer,, 
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ToyPro says:
12/11/10 04:35PM

Good to see you back!

 

studdog says:
12/11/10 04:58PM
Good to see ya bro. 
NoAffiliation says:
12/11/10 05:10PM
 Good to see you, bro....
giant56 says:
12/11/10 05:10PM
Invest, you are the man.  Lets Go!!
ApocalypseLater says:
12/11/10 05:55PM
leaning to Oregon at the moment... will most likely not bet this game until after the New Year...


GL on the bowl slate!


BCC2281258014346A7ABDD8CC13A3D56 says:
12/12/10 12:50AM
I THINK..The difference will be the speed of auburns receivers and th size of Newton..Oregon will be well prepared but Newton is bigger tan their linebackers

Auburn 41-31
philo99 says:
12/12/10 02:55AM

Hey Giant you ready to bet some games and have a few brews.  Glad to see Invest and you back  

giant56 says:
12/12/10 12:26PM


Good to see you too. 
philo99 says:
12/12/10 06:02PM

Do you think your boys can cover the 4 tommorow? 

BigSmooth says:
12/13/10 01:41PM
Welcome back Invest 
giant56 says:
12/13/10 05:44PM


Big Blue wins by 6pts.  undie 44 because the 3 on D,  Tuck, Umenyora and "THE GIANT"  Pierre-Paul will scare Favre and Tavaris to the point of chills and shakes.  Playing indoors @ 70 deg.F  and they'll be shaking in their cleats bro!

We need this game sooo bad.  I hope thats the way it turns out.

W M L
fsumavila says:
12/14/10 12:53AM
Invest,

such a tough game to figure out. Not as simple as going w/the SEC team ... Oregon is a legit power. Their running game is pretty damn good, their passing attack is obviously impressive. But I think a 38 day layoff hurts the Ducks' offensive timing more than it does Auburn's style. It's tough to just turn it on and off after 5 weeks of just practice.
Plus, i think Auburn's defensive coaches will see video from the last couple Oregon games and see how Cal, Arizona, and Wash St. were able to slow down the Ducks at times.
as of right now, I'm planning on taking Auburn -2.5 (buying hook). going to wait a bit to see if Oregon $ drives line down again.

One thing I know for sure: No way I'm betting the Over at 74 ...

ozzwald says:
12/14/10 11:11AM

Oregon is freaking bad-ass and could win straight up IMO.  Yes, Cam Newton is amazing but so are the Ducks.

Should be a great game, I'll take the +3.  BOL.

FrontRowCenter says:
12/14/10 11:39AM
If u are going to bet on Oregon, just wait, the line will go up!!!!


44-dimes says:
12/14/10 11:54AM
I doubt very much that the line will move. I'm not playing the game but i will enjoy watching it. If i did have to make a play it would be on the Tigers.

GOODLUCK
philo99 says:
12/14/10 12:48PM

[Quote: Originally Posted by giant56]

Big Blue wins by 6pts.  undie 44 because the 3 on D,  Tuck, Umenyora and "THE GIANT"  Pierre-Paul will scare Favre and Tavaris to the point of chills and shakes.  Playing indoors @ 70 deg.F  and they'll be shaking in their cleats bro!

We need this game sooo bad.  I hope thats the way it turns out.

 

Thanks Giant.  Great call on the under as well. 

jimmydafreak says:
12/14/10 01:57PM

I will be shocked if Auburn ever punts in this game.  I look for a score very similar to the SECCG score except I'll spot Oregon an extra TD out of respect.  I see something like 59-24 Auburn.

 

Droxside says:
12/14/10 02:22PM


I agree. I just do not see Oregon stopping Auburn at all. Honestly, I do not even think Auburn will need to pass all that much with Newton running wild along with Dyer's physical presence as the game wears on. On the other side, Oregon will score but not keep up. As talented as they are and they are talented, Auburn is fast enough coupled with being much more physical and will control the line of scrimmage on both sides and disrupt the Oregon speed and precision enough to slow them down and avoid to many long stretched the defense is on the field...Best Of Luck...
jimmydafreak says:
12/14/10 03:57PM

I don't think Oregon hits 30 points in this game.  If they do, it'll be just barely (like maybe 31).  I think something in the 24-28 point range is more likely however.

 

biggiantkiller says:
12/14/10 07:21PM
auburn
jordyn31 says:
12/14/10 08:59PM

You and I are in the minority on Oregon

I feel they have an edge on defense

Both teams should put up big numbers

The BIG key is keeping Newton under control like Bama did in the first half

I like the points

playerfly says:
12/14/10 09:12PM

War Eagle!!!!!!!!!

miniman44444 says:
12/19/10 07:41PM
hey bud glad to see ya back im lookin at oregon to win it by 3
chadpatt59 says:
12/20/10 12:00AM
AU rolls in this game.. Its only close the first quarter then the depth and athletic ability of AU starts to take a toll on Oregon..  War Eagle!!!
ApocalypseLater says:
12/20/10 12:11AM
did a breakdown last night and came out with Ore (-3) as an accurate spread for the game... with small margin of error, not sure if it is going to be worth playing... unless i can find something to strengthen the angle...

from start to finish, Oregon performed slightly better than Auburn all year, against virtually identical level of competition...
darant says:
12/20/10 12:23AM

Outright most ludachrist, biased, ignorant comment made so far on his thread.  Clearly, you forgot to note strength of schedule:

  • 1 Texas A&M
  • 2Auburn
  • 3Arkansas
  • 4Notre Dame
  • 5South Carolina
  • 6Minnesota
  • 7LSU
  • 8Iowa St.
  • 9Alabama
  • 10Missouri
  • 11Iowa
  • 12Oklahoma
  • 13Illinois
  • 14Oregon St.
  • 15San Jose St.
  • 16Michigan
  • 17Florida St.
  • 18Penn St.
  • 19Purdue
  • 20UNLV
  • 21Florida
  • 22Cincinnati
  • 23North Carolina St.
  • 24Miami (FL)
  • 25Arizona
Wow, I don't see Oregon on there.  Hmmm...well how about the top 50 SOS?  Nope.  In fact, they rank 58th !!!! 

Redo your bowl angle, ApocalypseLater, before you lose your money.
ApocalypseLater says:
12/20/10 12:26AM



ironic!


my comment was as unbiased as possible... since i was using Sagarin Ratings for SOS... Oregon SOS = 69... Auburn SOS = 70...

i don't operate on bias or ignorance... now you know!
ApocalypseLater says:
12/20/10 12:27AM
oops... was looking at the wrong numbers...


Auburn SOS = 15
Oregon SOS = 19
ApocalypseLater says:
12/20/10 12:28AM
again... this is according to Sagarin's ratings... so if you have a problem, direct your angst to him... not me!
ApocalypseLater says:
12/20/10 12:29AM



just looked over these SOS rankings... hilarious that you call mine biased... 5 of the top 10 on that list are from the SEC... whoever made THAT list is the one who is biased...
dukejava says:
12/22/10 05:46PM
Is I4U posting his bowl plays in here or is he not making any this season?
jackdfan says:
12/20/10 10:30AM

I heard a radio discussion about this game, and one guy ventured

"Auburn has played a schedule that was 31 games OVER .500

Oregon has played a schedule that was 31 games UNDER .500"

Also, the U/D has won 6/L8

Back to the drawing board.......

playerfly says:
12/21/10 08:56AM
  Ive started out 1-2 in these bowls games, so for whatever it is worth Auburn , BIG, 45-28,. Good luck
playerfly says:
12/21/10 08:58AM

 

Good Luck Apocalypse, but I dont see where the SOS oregon -19 comes in , AU had on eof the toughest schedules known to a team this year and Oregons was probaly about 100

kljmd007 says:
12/20/10 11:02AM

Auburn outweighs Oregon on both the offensive and defensive lines by 30 to 40 lbs per man.  The vertical passing game is not Oregon's forte which is where Auburn's defensive weakness is.  No one including Alabama has been able to run between the tackles all year and with the size advantage Oregon won't either.  They will score some points using the option and getting to the edge which is the only play South Carolina hurt Auburn with in the SEC Championship.  Unless Auburn turns the ball over 3 or more times this one will get ugly for Oregon especially in the 2nd half when they start to get pounded with the running game.  Auburn ran for over 300 yards in 6 of 8 games against SEC DEFENSES and for 440 v. LSU.  Late in the year Ole Miss, Ga, and Alabama tried to load up to stop the run so Cam threw it over the top for 250 to 350 yds and multiple scores.  Turnovers are the only chance Oregon has to cover the spread.  They hang their hat on a win v. a VERY mediocre Tenn team that had them tied at the half and the fact they are a 2nd half team.  Well, check out Auburn's 2nd halves this year and you will see the same.  Auburn will pound the running game for 400+ yards and if the vertical passing game is going early to Adams and Zachry it will be even worse.  Also liking Ark and the points against Ohio State who has been owned by the SEC. 

kljmd007 says:
12/20/10 11:04AM
And speaking of the vertical passing game if Fairly and the D line put pressure on the Oregon qb as expected he is not going to have time to throw it deep.  Hard to throw from your back.
Kurshka says:
12/22/10 07:41PM

 

 

 

Link not working. Do you have another?

spinseeker says:
12/21/10 01:01PM

One big mitigating factor is whether you are playing at home or away. Auburn played 4 road games and Oregon played 6. And I don't know if they take into account the distance you have to travel for the away games, but they should. Everyone that has watched/bet these games for a long time knows the difficulty in playing on the road and especially travelling across country to do it. Heck even playing in extremely different weather can have a big effect on a team.

Those factors can't be stressed enough when attempting to determine SOS.

IMO, Oregon State had arguably the toughest schedule. On the road against three top ten teams (#3,#4, and #10) and home against the #2 team, 6 away games total, and the only two non AQ teams they played were on the road & ranked in the top ten (Boise & TCU).

Someone please show me 13 schedules tougher than that.
spinseeker says:
12/21/10 01:17PM
Not trying to convince the Auburn backers, preferably you move the line higher. This is for the Oregon backers.

It's funny how so many people think Auburn is going to blow out Oregon. Auburn didn't blow out a single team that is over .500 until the last game of the year and that was a rematch. (For the record, I don't consider the Arkansas game a blowout, because of the two egregious replay rulings that were not overturned and directly resulted in TD's for Auburn while the game was very close in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Not saying AU wouldn't have won without those calls, but the final score would not have been a 22 point victory.)

So in this fantasy world of theirs, Auburn will play much like they did in the only game of theirs that they blew out an opponent that has a winning record, and their undefeated opponent (with the highest scoring offense in the nation and the 14th rated scoring defense, 26th total defense) will play like the only game they played this year where they were held to under 37 points (Cal, 15 points).

Gee, I wonder why Oregon was the early favorite. 
spinseeker says:
12/20/10 05:14AM

SEC.
SashimiKid says:
12/22/10 05:57PM
Its useless to argue over the minor details, Auburn is bigger and faster than Oregon. I respect Oregons accomplishments this year BUT the ducks will have to play a perfect game to win.
ApocalypseLater says:
12/22/10 05:53PM


this has already been established... only SEC homerism can lead someone to make this claim, pure and simple... Oregon St clearly had the hardest schedule this year...

7 games against the top 30... 4 against the top 10...
ApocalypseLater says:
12/21/10 01:38PM


agree completely... said the same thing earlier... nobody played a tougher schedule than Oregon St, and any SOS that doesn't have OSU in at least the top 3, is not worth a shit!
ApocalypseLater says:
12/20/10 01:34PM



what was even worse about that SOS list... SEC had 6 in the top 25 (5 in the top 10), while the PAC 10 had only 2 in the top 25 (0 in the top 10), including the #25 team in Arizona...

seems like someone got ahold of an SEC magazine and believed their SOS rankings...

the reality, and i believe this is almost impossible to argue, is that Oregon St played the toughest schedule of any team this year... games against:  TCU, Boise, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, USC, Cal, Arizona St, Washington and Louisville... that's 3 games against BCS Bowl teams, and another against Boise, who is only not in a BCS Bowl because they are in a non-AQ conference, but are clearly one of the 8 best teams, and miles ahead of UConn...

and yet that list has them at #14... gotta love the nerve of a guy who posts that list and has the nerve to call someone else biased!
ApocalypseLater says:
12/21/10 11:18AM






Jeff disagrees... and Jeff has a little more clout than either of us:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm


ApocalypseLater says:
12/21/10 11:21AM
by the way, notice also the far right hand column (known as the Pure Points Predictor)... that's 2 of the 3 most widely used sets of power ratings having Oregon anywhere from 2 to 7 points better than Auburn...

incidentally, my own PR (which are based purely on season results), have Oregon 3 points better than Auburn...

GL with your play!
ApocalypseLater says:
12/22/10 07:03PM


1) i guarantee (would stake my life) that i am older than 90% of this forum, if not 95%... and i am probably twice as old as at least 40% of this forum... but regardless, calling ANYBODY "kid" on the internet is a sign of abominable ignorance...

2) i get my SOS ratings from this site:  http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm... his name is Jeff Sagarin... perhaps you have heard of him... sportsbooks refer to these rankings as a guide for making their lines...

3) did you really just attack my ellipses?  that's a new one... that is called writing style, and i use it simply because it is the most effective way to punctuate in informal writing...

4) you made my point about SOS... Alabama played 5 or 6 ranked teams... Oregon St played 7... and they are the only team to play 4 teams in the top 10...


this can only be debated by someone who is, as you say, clueless!
ApocalypseLater says:
12/22/10 07:24PM
so you just admitted this is your first season, but you're calling me kid... fascinating... and this after you criticized my "ellipses" in a post that was rife with punctuation, spelling and grammatical errors...

you are truly a case study to behold!


i am not here to compete with the likes of you... i try to set a bit of a higher bar than that... anyone can flip a coin 50 times and come up 60% heads... i've been at this for 20+ years... and in 18 years betting bowl games, i've only had 2 losing years... this will not be the 3rd... you would be well advised to listen to what i have to say... but i am certain you are not smart enough to do so...

for that matter... pay attention to the guy who made this thread... no matter what he has done this year, his advice is worth 10 times what yours is...
Laroja says:
12/22/10 07:29PM

That is because you can't. Your "angles" are terrible and judgements are biased. My 63% is no variance, you bring up the heads and tails scenario because not only is your logic terrible, but your also a terrible capper.

Laroja says:
12/22/10 07:08PM
This clueless guy 63% YTD on his first season, going 33-20 in the regular season. And your like what? IDK , probably not even breaking even if you include juice. And SEC has the best teams, Oregon State wouldn't last against decent SEC teams. I'll be destroying this bowl season while your be lucky to break even.
Laroja says:
12/22/10 05:51PM
Alabama has the hardest schedule, Auburn comes second or third.
Laroja says:
12/22/10 06:05PM

Stfu kid lol, I'm not a homer of any team or any conference. I get my SOS from this site http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/strength-of-schedule-by-team, I agree with what they say. Alabama played 5-6 ranked teams in their schedule, with 3 of them on the road ( ARK, SC , LSU ). Playing Ark Florida and SC in a row. The played a SC game on the road off when SC had a bye. No point arguing with you, you are clearly the most clueless person in the CFB forum. And your ellipses makes you look dumb and indecisive.

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