56-64-1 YTD picks for tues 6/26/12

betting 1.2 units

nym -130
was -135
und 10.5 even
cle/nyy und 9.5 -120
tb +110
und 9 -120

GL
-ixorv-

54-59-1 YTD picks for mon 6/25/12

betting 1.2 units

mil +120
stl -115
nym -125
was -170
tex -145
cws/min under 8 -120
tb -110


other bets i considered

was/col under 9.5 +105
lad even
tex RL +120
cws -110

GL
-ixorv-

44-46-1 YTD picks for fri 6/22/12

44-46-1 ytd -5.38 units
betting 1 unit

chi +155
bal -125
pit even
nym +135
cle -135
col +190
sea even
lad +150

GL
-ixorv-

43-41 YTD Thursday picks 6/21/12

43-41 ytd -1.05 units
betting 1 unit

phi RL +115
stl -105
lad -150
tb +125
und 7 even
pit -150
und 8.5 -110

GL
-ixorv-

39-38 YTD picks for 6/20/12

39-38 ytd -1.38 units
betting 1 unit

phi -145
ari -160
cle -115
min +115
tb  +180

GL
-ixorv-

37-34 YTD picks for 6/19/12

37-34 ytd +1.08 units
betting 1 unit

col +210
cin -105
stl +140
tb  -135
min -110
tex -125

GL
-ixorv-

33-32 YTD picks for 6/18/12

33-32 ytd
-0.4 units
betting 1 unit

cin -115
bal +150
hou -115
chc +115
ari -180
sf  -110

GL
-ixorv-

30-28 YTD plus father's day

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY

30-28 ytd +0.45 units
betting 1 unit

cin -135
pit +130
bal +110
was +105
mil -155
oak -135
sf  even

GL
-ixorv-

27-24 YTD picks for 6/16/12

27-24 ytd +.65 units
betting 1 unit

mil even
kc/stl und 9 even
pit +120
bal +160
tb -125
ari +125
sf -115

GL
-ixorv-

24-22 YTD picks for 6/15/12

24-22 ytd +0.00 units
betting 1 unit

nats -120
orioles +140
brewers -110
a's -120
giants -110

GL
-ixorv-

23-19 YTD picks for 6/14/12

23-19 ytd +2.46 units
betting 1.2 units

pirates +105
brewers -125
twins -135
phi/min und 9 -105

GL
-ixorv-

19-16 YTD picks for 6/13/12

19-16 ytd +2.58 units
betting 1.2 units

astros +190
nats -135
**orioles -130 (RL is +165)
d-backs +165
**phillies -155 (RL is  even)
white sox +120
**angels -135 (RL is +130)

**RLs for theses games should be a good value, if u can stand the variance --pls note my pick is for the ML-- (RL numbers posted for your convenience)

GL
-ixorv-

awful monday games are awful

17-10 ytd +6.88 units

shitty game selection today (which should make for great ACTUAL baseball)

1 pick and i'm even paying the juice

betting 1.6 units

jays -160

love morrow and hate the juice, but -160 is my soft cap and i don't really like the RL in this situation

GL
-ixorv-

Shamelessly posting nothing...

...but my baseball picks.

12-8 YTD +3.23 units
betting 1.1 units

brewers RL +130
rays +105
jays -110
phillies -140
nats +140
angels +105
dodgers -110

GL
-ixorv-

P.S. as always some "gamble games" that i don't like enough to bet, but i do like enough to mention

mets +165
giants +125
a's +140

Shamelessly posting videos...

...and baseball picks.


8-6 YTD +1.73 units


betting 1.1 units


cubs +105
giants even
nats -110
jays +135
angels -135
dodgers -140

GL
-ixorv-

Shamelessly posting hot chicks...

...and baseball picks.


i don't know why i starting posting picks yesterday after nearly 18 months of not posting, but i picked a good day to start going 5-1 and +4.22 units.


8 picks today (betting 1.2 units each)


royals/pirates over 7 -120
orioles -125
mets +130
nats -115
rays even
braves RL +125
angels RL +105
a's +135


3 more i almost like, but not enough to bet, but they're all +130


GL
-ixorv-

tales from the last 48 hours

thursday night my picks were warriors/bulls under 215 and lakers/nuggets
under 212 plus a casual bet on celtics ml.  my second half moves (which i don't
ever have time to post - though i've been meaning to blog a primer) were over on
the warriors and the heat giving points, both of which were good (if i ever get to
that 2nd half primer blog, you'll see i'm huge fan of situational 2nd half bets).

4-1 thursday.

then i did something i never do and is extremely stupid, i went and played
blackjack (i have a running joke that's evolved from national lampoon's vegas
vacation and is familiar with gambling acquaintances of mine - "instead of playing
blackjack, give me all the money in your pocket and i will kick you in the nuts
as hard as i can.  in a week, i'm mail you a check for half of your money back,
and that'll be win/win for both of us." - so you can see how strong my feelings are
on not playing that game).  i bought in for a thousand (most of what i'd won on
basketball) and tripled that up.  after i came to my senses around 3am i went home.

yesterday, my picks were knicks/wolves under 216.5 and pistons/clippers over 189.5
and a casual (though by the time i'd gotten to the casino, i had decided to make it
a full bet) pick on blazers/thunder over 194.  then i went and sat in a 1/3 no-limit
with $200 (which is what i normally do - i'm a huge fan of being conservative and
playing well, and... [More]

my idea...

ok, i feel like doing something completely different this week.  no, not cause
i'm picking around 35% after 5 weeks (yuck!), cause if you've read through what
i've said each week, i've been right, in concept, about 90% of the time.
unfortunately though, in application, it's been about 35% winners (did i say
"yuck!" yet?), but i digress.  no, this is an idea i've had for awhile, but i
have never rolled it out before, and although this isn't exactly how i
envisioned doing it, this will do for the moment.

i am posting my mid-week thoughts on each game separately (instead of my final
thoughts on each game collectively) and inviting dialogue and ideas from other
covers members to contribute to the overall thought process for each game.  to
be honest, i am skeptical of leaving an open-invitation to the entire community
(and having it be constructive), but what the hell - i'm a gambler.

please keep in mind that although we may be picking against each other, we are
all on the same side.  therefore...

1) please read the post entirely before posting your comments.  duplicating
other's comments wastes everyone's time.
2) please post relevant information specific to this game.  if you have some
information about this game no one else has said, say it.
3) please support your opinions with related facts.  don't just say "team a
will beat team b because team b sucks" or "team x will run a... [More]

bankroll 101

click for some good guidelines or whether or not to pull the trigger on a bet

since my picks have been mostly shit, let me do a q&a on sports betting 101...

q:do i need a bankroll?
if you bet casually, no.  if you decide that you'd like to make a serious
attempt at beating the book, then absolutely.

q:how much of a bankroll do i need?
what can you afford?  i'd say any amount that wouldn't be [too] painful to
lose would be a good starting point.  more specifically two to three weeks
wages (assuming you don't live entirely paycheck to paycheck - if you do,
sports-betting should be the least of your concerns).

q:how much of my bankroll should i wager?
this can vary, but about 3% to 5%.  more specifically, the more adverse you
are to risk (obviously you must accept a significant amount of risk if you
are willing to wager at all) the more i'd recommend 3% and if you're willing
to go full out, never more than 5% (it's just bad business).

q:when should i increase my bet amounts?
when you are winning, obviously.  more importantly, remember to decrease your
wagers (remember 3% to 5% of your bankroll) when you go on an extended losing
streak.  don't let pride or greed stop you from lowering your bet.

q:should i vary my wager?
while i fully agree with the theory behind varying y... [More]