jagerfury's Blog

Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 05:08 PM

Simple Rockies Fade System

I like to look at three game series and play the Rockies to lose risking $100.00 on the ML. Chase the next game if they happen to win. Chase the third? Try not to...

Each game needs to be capped, and not bet automatically. For today this is what I have considered; 

DeLarosa is arguably their best pitcher and as you would expect is taking the mound today. Miami is a pretty crap team and with the line set at -145 Vegas has made this game pretty unplayable. Also, it is the first game of the year so who knows which way it will go...

Decision: Pass. Look to tomorrow since this is a four game stretch. Let them get deeper into their average rotation.


Posted Tuesday, November 19, 2013 09:15 PM

I'm doing it...

Picking VAN at heavy juice. This is usually a guaranteed loser, so make your money

Posted Tuesday, August 27, 2013 07:20 PM

Rockies scrub vs. Giants scrub

Rockies -118... I see this as a toss up game with the edge for the home team. Not really a deep analysis, I know; but, a look through the starting pitchers game notes doesn't change my view.  

Posted Tuesday, July 02, 2013 08:35 PM

LAD cheapens at -140

Worth a unit. Raw innings pitched for the starters seems to favor a LAD bet. 

I'll just take 1H...


Posted Sunday, April 07, 2013 08:06 PM

Delarosa weak link in the chain?

I was not impressed by his start against MIL after struggling in the minors last year. He threw three innings in a Grand Junction A Minor game, wtf?

I will go with SF on Monday...


Posted Monday, January 28, 2013 10:22 PM

Are the Avalanche as bad as they look?

Seriously, fuck my two dogs a day strategy, do you just fade the Avalanche every game with some chase. You know, 2-3 game chase strategy


Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 11:41 AM

1.21 DD

0-3 -$300.00 that experiment didn't work very well...

WIN +170
CLB +110


Posted Sunday, January 20, 2013 11:12 AM

1.20 DD

0-2 -$200.00, going back to the well...

VAN -1.5 +200


Posted Saturday, January 19, 2013 10:08 AM

1.19 DD

Here's to a great betting sport...

My first hockey picks of the  year may not be legit as a "dog", but;

NAS -1.5 +170

VAN -1.5 +175


Posted Monday, October 15, 2012 04:12 PM

MNF analysis from the IBT

This is decent game analysis from Bobby Brooks I just read in the International Business Times. Not sure who he is, but he is giving me warm fuzzies. I got a homer bet on DEN +1. Hopefully FF takes SD, then I will have a hard on as well.

Peyton Manning is beginning to find his groove, while Philip Rivers is still trying to figure out how they lost in New Orleans.  This week the two quarterbacks square off under the bright lights of Monday Night Football.  Let's take a closer look at why I like the Broncos to come out on top.

Markets

This is a game that the sportsbooks haven't wanted to mess with very much.  The Chargers were favored by 2.5 in the Summer and also in the look ahead line last week.  It reopened very briefly at -3 on Sunday night, but sharp money immediately pounced on Denver at the key number. That was a smart grab, because I don't think San Diego is the better team at the moment.  The current number sits at -1.5 to -1 depending where you shop.

Advanced Metrics

When breaking down this match-up, there four key areas to look at that all favor the Broncos.

Consistency

When comparing these two offenses statistically, the Broncos come out on top.  This includes rushing, passing, pass blocking, drive success, and red zone efficiency.  Denver has put up good numbers consistently week in and week out. Yes, they did have to battle back against the Texans, Falcons, a... [More]

Posted Sunday, April 22, 2012 05:13 PM

The System

Just take the biggest +money play on the board for 1st inning score.

Chase with the next available if that loses.

There could be as many as 6 plays today.

I skip games where they are both -money.

Posted Monday, April 09, 2012 06:36 PM

Average Batters Faced...

Is there a place where this stat can be found per pitcher? Or "Batters Faced Last Five"?

Thanks...


Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 10:58 AM

ARI, PHI

8-12-2...-$71.00

The inconsistent shit-storm of preaseaon pics continues...

ARI +115,

PHI +110

Preseason pics are all for $25.00, as I have no confidence in capping this shit. Just looking at plus money.



Posted Thursday, March 29, 2012 10:56 AM

BAL, SF

6-12-2 for -$131.25 so far on the preseason ball.

Finish off my predictable poor preseason run with these two pics.

SF +106,

BAL +135.

Preseason pics are all for $25.00, as I have no confidence in capping this shit. Just looking at plus money.



Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 02:10 PM

TB, CLE

6-10-2  for -$81.25 so far on the preseason ball.

TB +104,
CLE +120

Good luck on the afternoon action everyone...


Posted Friday, March 23, 2012 10:43 AM

NYM, CHC

5-9-2 -85.25 ... the usual horrible run for preseason...

NYM's are +120,

and the CHC are +116

Preseason plays are all $25.00, as I do not have any confidence in capping this shit. Just looking at plus money.



Posted Saturday, March 17, 2012 11:30 AM

HOU, MIL

5-7-2 -35.25

Dogs started to get some weight back on. Taking a chance at +125, and +110.

Preseason plays are all $25.00, as I do not have any confidence in capping this shit. Just looking at plus money.

Posted Tuesday, March 13, 2012 11:22 AM

HOU, ATL

4-7-1 -61.50

HOU is at +105, and ATL is EV.

Wanted CHW, but they are now -105.


Posted Monday, March 12, 2012 11:11 AM

PIT, SD

+105, and +103.

Stingy bastards.

Any book have ten cent lines. SBG has twenty. Matchbook used to be the way to go, but...

Preseason plays are all $25.00, as I do not have any confidence in capping this shit. Just looking at plus money.

Posted Sunday, March 11, 2012 10:43 AM

CHC, and KC

4-3-1 for +38.50

Meager picking for the dogs today. I have +106, and +103 for lines.


Posted Friday, March 09, 2012 12:15 PM

O's, and A's

BAL +115,
OAK +110...

3-4 +12.00



Posted Thursday, March 08, 2012 03:03 PM

CHW, KC

I'll take these two each at +110.

1-4 -40.00...


Posted Wednesday, March 07, 2012 10:37 AM

MIN, STL, ATL

1-2... -20.00

Philly's game notes show, in my opinion, a good pitching roster for today, so I would pick that as a good favorite, but I will be just picking dogs so I will pass...

Looking at MIN, STL, and ATL. Will need to cut two plays off the morning card. Open to suggestions...

Preseason plays are all $25.00, as I do not have any confidence in capping this shit. Just looking at plus money.

Posted Tuesday, March 06, 2012 02:49 PM

CHW, TEX, and ROX

CHW moved to +140, and TEX at +120. COL has dipped to +105, probably not worth the bother, but will play them anyways... .

Preseason plays are all $25.00, as I do not have any confidence in capping this shit. Just looking at plus money.


Posted Sunday, January 01, 2012 01:15 PM

Daily Dogs

Let them start barking, it is time...

CAL +105


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Location: Colorado
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