12/20/11

Starting fresh with some posted plays.  Let's see how this works out, trying to set a weekly goal of +5.0 units.

Tournament(s) Thread

Overall Goal: 15 units 

1/12/11

Weekly Goal: +5 units

1/11/11

Failed miserably in my first week to reach my goal of +7.5 units for the week, so I'm going to scale it back to clearing 5 units over the next seven days.  Just not in a good groove right now at all.

1/8/10 Make or Break Saturday - HUGE Card

Weekly Goal: +7.5 unitsDAY 1: 2-4-1, -2.95 unitsDAY 2: 5-6, -4.1 units DAY 3: 5-2, +1.6 unitsDAY 4: 6-3. +0.9 units
11-5 over the last 2 days, but missing every single multi-unit play  I put it, which couldn't be more frustrating.  I'm having my first big play of 2011 going today in NCAAF, but I'm also trying to find 5-7 hoops plays to throw in as well.  These are some initial leans I have going over this huge card, I'm gonna look over things again in the morning to see if anything else jumps out at me:
Morehead -18: Jacksonville State is just dreadful, Morehead should be able to name their score in this one.
Loyola Marymount -12.5: I might auto-fade SD the rest of the season, or at least until they prove they can cover a spread.
G-Town/WVU U144:  Only once in the past 10 meetings have these two combined for this number, and only one other time have they reached 130.  Basically it's always been a slugfest between these two teams, and I'll bank on the early start time adding a few more bricks to this contest.
Washington -20:  Played this exact same spread against Oregon Thursday night and got burned by a last minute 3.  I'm not sure how the injury to Gaddy is going to affect the Huskies in the short-term, but this Oregon State team has been horrendous on the road this season.  I'll probably bite again and see if U-Dub can cover 3 TD's this time around.
E. Illinois +1: The Panthers have won 5 straight against S... [More]

1/7/11

Weekly Goal: +7.5 units

DAY 1: 2-4-1, -2.95 units

DAY 2: 5-6, -4.1 units 

DAY 3: 5-2, +1.6 units

A little late posting, but only 2 NCAAB plays for tonight:

Butler -6

Siena +2

Probably gonna be on LSU and the under for the bowl game, as well as the Suns in the NBA.

1-6-11 Early Leans/Plays

Weekly Goal: +7.5 unitsDAY 1: 2-4-1, -2.95 unitsDAY 2: 5-6, -4.1 units  
Time to turn this shit around.  Going against my original plan to limit plays, and it's just the second day in .  Some early leans for Thursday's card:
Xavier +9 - I was shocked to see Cincy laying this many in such a heated rivalry game.  I know they're undefeated and have blown out pretty much everyone on their schedule, but that schedule is 336th in the country (compared to X's 29th ranked schedule).  There hasn't been a true blowout in this series since '01, so I'll gladly take the points with a much more battle-tested team.  Also, possible look-ahead to Nova for Cincy, although I don't think that will factor much with it being such a heated rivalry game.
Washington -22 - Oregon is just a bad, bad, bad team.  I made a mental note to look for this matchup after watching Mizzou and Oregon play earlier this year.  Oregon looked completely lost in the up-tempo pace the Tigers played, and if not for a ridiculous shooting second half, they would have gotten run out of the gym.  Luckily, Washington isn't coming off of an overtime game with Georgetown like Missouri was, and I expect them to put a serious drubbing on the Ducks tomorrow night.
Pepperdine -9 - See Ducks, Oregon.




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1/5/11 Early Leans w/write-ups

WEEK GOAL: +7.5 UNITSDay 1:  2-4-1, -2.95 units
Still stinging from missing out on 2.5 units by pushing the bowl game, can't get over the fact that they don't return the blocked punt instead of falling on the damn thing.  Doing some research for tomorrow's games a little early, here are some initial leans, gonna narrow it down to 3-5 plays tomorrow.
UAB/Duke Over 140.5 - I really like the Blue Devils to bounce back after their lowest point total of the season Sunday against Miami.  Even in that contest, they still hung 74 and won comfortably.  UAB allows an impressive 58.6 PPG, but looking at this stat further, it comes against the 315th ranked offensive SOS.  Basically they're playing good D against bad O, and this definitely won't be the case in Cameron.
Seton Hall/Louisville Over 139.5 - Over the last 4 seasons, these two teams' matchups have averaged 165 PPG. While SHU is only averaging 69 points a contest, their tempo is 65th in the country, so they won't be afraid to get into the track meet that Ricky and the Cards will try to play.  Like Duke, I'm banking on UoL to bounce back off of a low-scoring affair in their last contest.
Ole Miss -6 - This lean is based largely on SMU's PATHETIC schedule so far this season.  Wayland Baptist, Central Arkansas, McMurry, Dallas Christian, Alabama State, just to name a few.  In fact, Kenpom has SMU's schedule 344th in the country.  Out of 345 teams. Hopefully the athletes from ... [More]

1/4/11 - Time to start the resolution

One of the many New Year's resolutions for me is to really work on my money management and limiting my plays (much easier said than done), so I'm gonna see how long I can keep that up in 2011.  My main goal for the new year is to try to turn a profit on a week-by-week basis instead of just focusing on the long-term gain.  For the next few weeks, I'm gonna keep my weekly goal small and see if I can't find a little success before increasing what I'm shooting for. 

Marathon - Day 10

YTD: 34-30-2 overall, -3.15 unitsSides: 20-17Totals: 3-4-11H total: 7-4-11H side: 1-12H total: 0-32H side: 1-0ML: 1-1ML Parlay: 0-1
UK ML really killed me last night, but not much to do but try and turn it around today.  Some plays and thoughts before I head out for the afternoon:
TA&MU/BC Over 63 1H - Hate going against the early morning under trend, but I think this one is a couple buckets too low.  The Aggies have scored 52, 41, and 39 in their 3 1st halves this year.  I usually hate taking BC totals because so much of it hinges on how well they shoot out of the flex offense they run, but I see these two teams pushing close to 70 after 20 minutes.
BC +7 - Not gonna be a popular pick on the board, but that's part of the reason I like the play.  After a SU loss to Yale earlier in the season, you'll be hard-pressed to find many people rushing to back the Eagles,  but I think this is a good spot for them.  I expect a big game out of Reggie Jackson, and I wouldn't be surprised if they take this one SU.
Wisconsin -20 - I haven't taken too many big favorites this year, but I really like this Badger team.  I feel that they're gonna be the forgotten team in the Big Ten this season with all the love for Sparty and OSU, but Wisky will be right in the mix come March.  The combination of Taylor and Lauer will be tough for Manhattan to contain.
UGA +7 - Gonna wait on this one, but I think the Dawgs have the athletes to keep this... [More]