WEEK GOAL: +7.5 UNITSDay 1: 2-4-1, -2.95 units
Still stinging from missing out on 2.5 units by pushing the bowl game, can't get over the fact that they don't return the blocked punt instead of falling on the damn thing. Doing some research for tomorrow's games a little early, here are some initial leans, gonna narrow it down to 3-5 plays tomorrow.
UAB/Duke Over 140.5 - I really like the Blue Devils to bounce back after their lowest point total of the season Sunday against Miami. Even in that contest, they still hung 74 and won comfortably. UAB allows an impressive 58.6 PPG, but looking at this stat further, it comes against the 315th ranked offensive SOS. Basically they're playing good D against bad O, and this definitely won't be the case in Cameron.
Seton Hall/Louisville Over 139.5 - Over the last 4 seasons, these two teams' matchups have averaged 165 PPG. While SHU is only averaging 69 points a contest, their tempo is 65th in the country, so they won't be afraid to get into the track meet that Ricky and the Cards will try to play. Like Duke, I'm banking on UoL to bounce back off of a low-scoring affair in their last contest.
Ole Miss -6 - This lean is based largely on SMU's PATHETIC schedule so far this season. Wayland Baptist, Central Arkansas, McMurry, Dallas Christian, Alabama State, just to name a few. In fact, Kenpom has SMU's schedule 344th in the country. Out of 345 teams. Hopefully the athletes from Ole Miss show up and put this game away early.
Memphis/UT Under 148 - This series has gone under in 4 straight meeting, and none of those games have come remotely close to hitting the total. This rivalry always seems to be much more of a slugfest than is expected, and the pressing, up-tempo game is usually scrapped for a more physical affair when these two get together. I'm not sure what exactly is going on in the Vols' locker room, but they have completely fallen apart since the Pitt upset. I think an in-state rivalry game might be a good way for them to get back on their feet, especially on the defensive end.
Dayton PK - This line just screams trap to me, but I think I'll end up biting on the Flyers. SLU is really struggling right now, losing 3 straight, while Dayton has won 6 of 7, with the only loss being a 74-71 L on the road against a good Old Dominion team. SLU also has a road game @Temple on deck, so a possible look-ahead there.
Air Force -1.5 - Similar situation to the Dayton play. Utah has lost 5 of 6, and is just 1-4 on the road, while AF has won 4 of 6 and is 7-1 at home (with the 1 loss coming to a tough Colorado College squad November 17th). Utah has SDSU and BYU at home following this road game, so we might catch another look-ahead in this matchup.
Thought and comments are appreciated, BOL fellas.