1/10 Plays

8-2 in 2009, 3 More Plays Tonight w/write-ups

CFB:  10-9 CBB:  20-19 NFL:    4-1-1 Teasers: 4-4 NBA: 8-2:  (obvious to see where my bread is buttered)    Overall: 46-35-1  +4.5 units   I've only had two losses since the New Year, with one of them being one of the worst mooses (or is it meese) of my betting career with the Raptors against the Bucks the other night, so I'm really hitting my stride right now.  Three plays on tonight's card:   Grizzlies/Raptors O190 Living in Tennesee, I get just about every Memphis game televised locally, so I watch this team quite a bit.  One thing I've definitely noticed about this squad is their inability to defend teams on the road.  Looking at their schedule this year, Memphis has only allowed less than 100 points 3 times this season, and none coming since November 21.  Overall, that's 13 out of 16 road efforts ending up with the Grizz's opponents hitting the century mark, at an average of 102 a game (with an overall road O/U record of 11-5).  Toronto will be without G Jose Calderon, but the team is 3-0 to the over since his absence.  I'm taking my chances on points being scored between these two mediocre teams that both give up right at 100 PPG.   Celtics +5 Definitely a gut play here, but I think the absence of Big Z will be a bigger loss than some are predicting.  The Celtics have no doubt heard the buzz all over ESPN that they've lost thei... [More]

1000th Post: Anniversary Winners w/write-ups

I actually sat down and did some write-ups yesterday, and it led to a 3-1 night .  Onto tonight's card, I'm sticking with the teams I'm very familiar with and my reasoning for backing them tonight:   Austin Peay +6 I took a terrible moose job from these guys the other night, as they blew a 12 point halftime lead and then went on to miss 2 FT's with 2 seconds left to miss the cover by a point.  While that loss definitely hurt, I'm not afraid to put my money on these guys again.   APSU has one 9 of the last 10 SU against the Skyhawks, and have already had road tests at Louisville and Arkansas, hanging with both until late in the 2nd half.   While I think UT-Martin is going to be at the top of the OVC standings come season's end, I think laying 6 right now to a team that has perennially dominated them is a bit much.   WKU -6 My alma mater is definitely a schizophrenic bunch, blowing out Louisville and knocking off Georgia at home, but getting blasted by Evansville, Mississippi State, and Murray State.  The fact of the matter is that the Hilltoppers have been a Sun Belt force (in the regular season, anyway) over the last few seasons.  The last 10 meeting between these two have resulted in 9 WKU victories, with an average margin of victory of15.7 points.  Couple that with an FIU team that has lost 6 of their last 7 and the Tops coming off a blowout loss at the hands ... [More]

1/7 Plays w/write-ups

4 plays on the night, and any input would be greatly appreciated guys:   Louisville/South Florida Over 125 First true road test for the Cards, but they should be flying high (no pun intended) after that win of my Cats Sunday.  They shot the ball at a 47% clip, while knocking home 11 of 20 from deep (55%).  South Florida has been known to defend well at home, but when Louisville is shooting the ball that well, there aren't many teams in the country that can defend them.  UofL's press should also get this into a more up-tempo game than the homestanding Bulls would like to play.  8 of the last 10 in this series have also reached at least the 125 total.     UNC -26 I generally HATE laying huge chalk, but I almost have to pull the trigger here on the Tar Heels.  I've seen a lot of cappers on the CoC, and I respectfully have to disagree on this one.  Just a couple weeks ago there was talk of this team being the greatest EVER, running the table, sure-fire national champion etc. etc.  And now everyone is jumping ship because of a home conference loss?  This is still the same team that went to Detroit and handed Tom Izzo a 35 point shelacking, and a home non-conference game is just what the doctor ordered coming off that BC defeat.  I know UNC has had trouble covering lofty numbers recently, but I think Roy and company will have something to prove in front of the home crowd.  Fear the bloodbath, CoC... [More]

Short and Sweet 1/6

18-6-1 Posted Run - Keep it Going 1/5 (write-ups)

Really starting to hit my stride this year, particularly with conference play heating up.  I'm trying to become more and more active on this site, and it's really helping me in my capping.  I appreciate all the feedback and hope to contribute something to you guys as well.  Not the best of cards tonight, but I found a few game I'm locking in:   NCAAB:   GSU/G-Mason O120 My numbers have this one around 126-128 range, so seeing a little value in this afternoon degenerate special.  G-Mason really shot the ball well there last time out, so hopefully that can continue in this one.   ND -2 The Big East is going to be a fun league to cap this year, especially with all the quailty matchups we're going to get week to week.  It's going to be important to pick good spots with so many highly ranked teams, and I think this is a perfect one for the Irish.  McAlarney struggling a bit, getting back to his home rims, doubled with the fact that they are coming off a terrible loss in MSG.  Everyone is addressing the rebounding advantage of G-town, but I think Harangody will be able to negate this a bit.  The crowd in South Bend should help carry them to victory in what I expect to be a very good game.   APSU -4 I'm a Clarksville native, so I tend to follow the Govs very closely with them being in my backyard.  AP blew an 8 point halftime lead against Morehead and ended up getting waxed, so I fully expect Coach... [More]

Chargers Hangover Picks - !/4

Ring in the New Year Right - Jan 3

12/30 Picks to Click

Short and sweet today, gotta get ready for the buffoonery of NYE coming up.  Just realized laying chalk on all my plays, but sometimes it's just a favorites kind of day.  Everything for 1 unit:
 
NCAAB:
Clemson -3
Miss State -8 (hook)
Purdue -7

NBA:
Suns -3
Celtics -5

NCAAF:
Nevada/Maryland O29.5 1st half
Nevada -2.5
Oklahoma State -2.5

12/29 Picks to Click

NBA: Magic/Pistons U186.5

        Nuggets/Hawks O199.5

NCAAF:  Rutgers -6

             1st half U28.5 Rutgers/NCSU

             Mizzou/NW O66

NCAAB: UK -22

           

Teaser: UCONN -1.5

           Mizzou -5.5

 

2 Plays This Afternoon

12/26 Post Christmas Hangover

CHI/MIA U100 1st half

Bulls +6

Several to come later...

12/24 and12/25 Holiday Hoops

NCAAF -      ND (-2) W

7-5 overall, +1.4 units

On to the Christmas picks:

NBA -       NO/ORL U191

               Suns (-2)

               Lakers (-2)

 

Leaning Wizards and O192, but will make a play closer to game time.

              

 

                

Holiday Hoops w/writeups 12/23

2-3 overall yesterday, Seton Hall really shat the bed for me   Posting all my plays in one spot here, trying to get a gauge on the overall record:   NCAAB: I'm a big believer in backing good teams coming off losses, so two games jump off the page at me immediately:   Texas (PK) I'm not in love with this game, seeing as it's in one of the toughest road venues in the country, but I think UT is the far superior team here.  UT has been battle-tested several times this year (ND, MSU, Nova, UCLA), and their bigs should be able to dominate 'Sconsin on the boards.  I'll take my chances with Barnes getting his team revved up to avoid back to back losses to the Big Ten.   Gonzaga (-21) After the heartbreaker against UCONN, the Zags go back to home to take on an undermatched Portland State team.  While they have been able to hang relatively close with Gonzaga their past few meetings, GU is winning by a measly 35.7 PPG at home this season.  Home court + tough loss last game = ugly game for the Vikings.   Arizona (-2) While i wouldn't classify UA as the same type of "good team" as my other two plays, this is still a decent group that's getting a home game after a loss, and the defending national champ at that.  The Wildcats are definitely a schitzophrenic group, losing a pair of one point games then getting pasted at UNLV.  The crowd should be rocking for the Jayhawks tonight, and I think KU's first true road test ... [More]

New Year's Resolution: Limiting the Plays

Gonna really start trying to limit my plays and actually turn a profit rather than shit it away just because I want action.   Plays for tonight, all to win 1 unit:

MNF - GB/CHI O40

NCAAB - Seton Hall (-3)

             Marquette (-1)

             North Texas (-3)

NBA -   Rockets (-5)          

             

500th Post: Hopefully Some Winners

Evansville/UNC O158  (2 units)      The way UNC is scoring these days, I'm really surprised to see any of their totals under 160.  Considering they keep their up-tempo ways going, there's little doubt that they crack the 98 points mark for the 6th straight game.  So here's to the Purple Aces hitting the 60 point mark .   MSU +5 (1 unit)      Based off of what I saw in the Crosstown Shootout last week, this UC team is in complete disarray.  A late second half push ended up making the game respectable, but the more athletic X-men really dominated this game from beginning to end.  MSU is a similiar team, long and deep in the frontcourt.  I look for the Dogs to steal one on the road here, and I am looking at a possible ML play if the value is right.   May add later, depending on what the line does: Ole Miss Taxi-Cab Attackers/Louisville U150      I'm really thinking the Cards take it to the Rebels here with the assault charges and everything against Coach Kennedy.  Louisville will be out to prove a point on a nationally televised game after their upset loss to WKU (my alma mater I might add ), and Pitino will be stressing defense to get the job done.  My number have a 78-60 type game, but I want to see if this ESPN tilt gets bet up any before pulling the trigger.   GL to everyone tonight, and hopefully this anniversary post will provide ... [More]

3-2 Last Night, Looking for Another Winning Night

12/9 Picks...Getting that Christmas Cash

Not much time for write-ups, so just getting right to the picks:

WVU -2  (1 unit) : Huggins contains Steph for the most part (if that's possible), and gets a hard fought win

Texas -2 (1 unit)  : too much size for the Cats to handle, although the pro-Nova crowd makes me a little hesitant; James and Abrams should get the better of Reynolds and company

VaTech/UGA O129 (2 units) : got a terrible number thanks to my wonderful site, and it's already gone up 5.5 today;  I think this will be a back and forth game, ugly in the first half and then really getting interesting down the stretch, with FT's pushing this one into the 130s

ISU -3 (1 unit): improved Cyclones + national TV audience + in-state rival = big home win

Pistons/Wizards O193 (1 unit) : Stones have been running a little more with AI at the point, and always love taking Washington overs at the MCI Center; they always seem to pick up the pace on the home floor  (Note: If Caron Butler plays, adding another unit)

GL to everyone on their plays

 

2-0 Posted Today, Time to Get Greedy (Write-ups Inside)

All plays are for 1 Unit, and any feedback would be appreciated:   Texas -3 Going against a lot of good cappers on here on this one, as it seems everyone and their mother are on the Irish.  While I really like what Brey is doing with Harangody and McAlarney, I just have to back that tough Longhorn D here.  Teams are having trouble even getting decent looks against Texas, and I think they can contain the impressive duo for ND and get a 7-8 point victory.    SEMO +20 A hunch play here, I think Iowa is getting a little bit too much credit here, and SEMO is undervalued because of a 40+ point loss earlier in the season.  Iowa is coming off a 9 point home win against Oakland, so playing the Redhawks to hang around the 15 point barrier.   Kansas -3 Again, going against a lot of what I'm reading on Covers.  While I think Syracuse is going to be a good team later in the year, I love Kansas in this spot in what amounts to a home game.  KU looked dominant last night, despite allowing Washington to have a 17-1 offensive rebounding edge in the first half.  I look for Aldredge to have another solid performance as Coach Self finds a way to keep Johnny Flynn in check.  10 point victory by the Jayhawks.   UNC-Oregon O80.5 1H Both of these teams love to get out and run, and with Hansborough hobbled, and Zeller out for the year, I think the Heels will get out and go even more.  Oregon is no slouch on the off... [More]

Hump Day Picks: 4/16

Having a pretty successful baseball season so far (knock on wood), so I'm gonna give posting some picks a try:   Giants (+1.5) Love betting the afternoon games, and see a lot of value taking Zito and the runs here.  Public is down on him after his first three starts, but I expect him to pitch a little better at home to avoid an 0-4 start.   Braves -143 Backing Hudson in this spot, with the Braves needing a big win against the division leader.  I don't see the Marlins shutting down Atlanta's bats again, so I'm willing to lay the wood on the Bravos.   White Sox/Orioles Over 9.5 Two starters with ERAs above 6 + the fact that 9 of the last 12 between these two have gone over = double digit runs.   Rockies +122 A team I loved betting on last year, I'm taking the Rockies as a road dog in this spot.  Like the Braves, I'm banking on a team of bats to get it going after being shutout last night.  I'm not a fan of backing Redman very often, but I like the value here.   Royals/Angels Over 8.5 8 out of the last 10 for the Angels have gotten to 10+ runs, and Gil Meche has an ERA of 7.13.  I expect the upstart Royals to put a few runs on Weaver as well.   Good Luck everyone.  ... [More]