I always like to wait until I watch Alabama’s last scrimmage of the year before I do my annual write-up. That allows me to deliver the most accurate and up-to-date information possible. If at any time throughout the season you have any questions about this team, or a wager concerning this team, please feel free to ask. I’ll do my best to answer your question(s), and point you in the right direction.
I apologize in advance if this season’s annual preseason write-up reads like a Billy Mays infomercial, but this 2011 Alabama team really has no weakness. How far this team goes will be determined by their discipline, unity and team leadership. Talent will not be an issue.
I feel pretty comfortable in saying that Alabama is the deepest and most talented team in the country. The amount of talent that Saban has amassed in a few short years is simply staggering. Some of you may recall that the 2007 team (Saban’s first season at Alabama) made history when not a single player on the roster was drafted by a NFL team. On the other hand, all 11 defensive starters and at least 8 out of 11 offensive starters on the 2011 team will have NFL futures. But Alabama’s talent pipeline doesn’t end at the 22 starters. Because of the exceptional talent that Saban has accumulated over the last several years, they also have amazing depth at every position. Personnel-wise Alabama is at the point where they could suffer a devastating injury at any position on the field, and they really wouldn’t miss a beat. That’s what pulling the #1, #1, #5 & #1 recruiting classes in the nation over the last 4 seasons will do for your talent and depth. It’s really an embarrassment of riches.
Two years ago people were down on Alabama because they graduated starting QB John Parker Wilson. At that time I said that the QB change was a positive because Greg McElroy was an upgrade at the position. That turned out to be accurate. In fact Alabama went on to capture the national championship that year.
Last season Alabama lost 10 starters off of the #1 ranked defense in the nation. Accordingly, the pundits and preseason magazines expected a significant drop-off in defensive production. To the contrary, I said that the Saban blue-chip recruits who were stepping up (many of whom were replacing Shula recruits) was a talent upgrade, and that I did not expect defensive production to drop much, if at all. I added that by the end of the year they may even be better. Although Alabama’s defensive ranking dropped from #1 to #5 nationally, the precipitous drop that most were predicting at the beginning of the season did not come to fruition.
Moreover, had Alabama’s top two pass rushers not been hobbled all season (Marcel Dareus - #3 overall pick in the NFL draft, and Courtney Upshaw), they may very well have been better. We saw for the first time all season what a healthy Dareus and Upshaw could do when Alabama played Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl. The effects on Michigan State’s quarterbacks were devastating.
According to the pundits and preseason magazines, Alabama’s offensive production is expected to nosedive because the loss of national championship QB (Greg McElroy), their Heisman winning RB (Mark Ingram), and 6th overall pick in the NFL draft WR (Julio Jones). Once again I’m going to tell you not to buy into the false notion that these departures will have a deleterious effect on Alabama’s overall offensive production this season. In fact to the contrary, I can virtually guarantee you that their offense production will increase in almost every statistical category, especially in the category of explosive plays. How can I make such a seemingly ridiculous prediction?
Last season I repeatedly posted that Alabama’s offensive production, and all of Alabama’s considerable offensive talent was being stifled by the QB position. Because of Greg McElroy’s inability to stretch the field in the passing game, and keep defenses honest (force them to defend the entire field), defenses were simply crowding all 11 men within 10-yards of the line-of-scrimmage to take away the running game, and to take away the short passing routes which, with McElroy under center, was all Alabama had. It was a rare sight indeed to see McElroy heave a pass 10 yards beyond the LOS. As I said, opposing defensive coordinators picked up on this, so they packed everyone close to the LOS and dared McElroy to beat them down the field. Well guess what? He couldn’t.
As I’m sure everyone is aware, Alabama is in the midst of a QB competition between AJ McCarron and Phillip Sims (Alabama also has another back-up QB named “Blake Sims” so don’t confuse the two). It really doesn’t matter which of these guys replaces McElroy because either will represent a significant talent upgrade at the position. Both of these guys have huge arms and are bona fide gunslingers. Both are playmakers and not of the dreaded McElroy “game manager” genre. Alabama will finally have a big time playmaker under center who can accurately deliver the ball to big-time playmakers downfield.
As I mentioned above, I attend all of Alabama’s public and private scrimmages. I watched John Parker Wilson and Greg McElroy when they played and knew McElroy was the better of the two. But the upgrade from McElroy to Sims and McCarron has been like night and day. Both Sims and McCarron are NFL caliber QBs that can flat-out sling the rock. The days of defenses crowding the LOS will come to an end which will open up Alabama’s potent running game once again.
At this point I wouldn’t be holding my breath for a quick resolution to the QB competition. Saban said on Saturday that "It s not out of the question that both have roles on our team in some kind of way." He went on to say “both of them have developed nicely. Both of them have consistently made plays. Their decision-making, their judgment, their ability not to force things and take what the defense gives, distribute the ball with good decision-making, down in and down out, is probably the only thing that’s going to be different about them, because it’s not physical ability or talent. It’s intangibles, leadership, decision-making, judgment and all those types of things, and both guys have done a good job in that regard as well.”
Saban focused heavily on recruiting electrifying playmakers at RB and WR the last two years. So while Alabama doesn’t have another Julio Jones just sitting around on the bench, they are absolutely loaded at the WR position. The point is there is no dearth of playmakers on this team for Sims and McCarron to utilize. The aforementioned backup QB Blake Sims is one of those guys. He plays RB, WR and is the backup QB. He will add a legitimate throwing threat to Alabama’s wildcat formation, something they really haven’t had in the past.
Although it has opened me up to much criticism, I have been saying for two years now that Trent Richardson is a better RB than the departed Mark Ingram. While it clearly isn’t a good thing to lose an exceptional RB like Ingram, the point is don’t expect any drop off at that position. Richardson’s backups Eddie Lacy and Justin Fowler are also animals who would be starting on most college teams. If there is team that has a better 1-2 punch at RB then Richardson and Lacy, I don’t know who it is.
If there is a chink anywhere in Alabama’s offensive armor it would be the all important left tackle position where they have to replace 1st round draft pick James Carpenter. They brought in JUCO transfer Aaron Douglas to take over that spot while true freshman phenom Cyrus ”The Prototype” Kouandijo learned the position. Although Kouandijo is still a little too green to assume the starting role in week 1, with Douglass’ untimely passing, I believe Kouandijo will take over the starting LT role at some point this season. Meanwhile, Alabama will push their versatile guard Barrett Jones out to tackle where he’s been wowing people all summer. Regardless of the rotation, Alabama’s o-line will be exceptional. In fact Phil Steel ranks it as the top offensive line in the country, and I would tend to agree with his assessment.
As I mentioned above, the lack of a pass rush is what kept last season’s defense from reaching its full potential. Alabama ranked 51st in the nation with 27 total sacks, and they lose their top pass rusher in Marcel Dareus. Like Julio Jones, Alabama doesn’t just have another Dareus-like talent waiting in the wings.
Saban and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart obviously recognized that the pass rush was an issue last season because they have made it a focal point of camp. While Alabama doesn’t have anyone as good as Dareus, I think collectively the defensive line as a whole will generate a better pass rush. Overall I just think Alabama has more proficient pass rushers than they had last season. Accordingly, I expect an improvement over last season’s docile sack numbers.
In an effort to keep the length of this write-up from getting completely out-of-hand, I will gloss over the linebackers and secondary by simply pointing out that Phil Steele rates both units the best in the nation.
In my opinion not only will Alabama’s defense be the best in the country, and not only will it be better than the 2009 defense, I think it’ll end up being one of the best defenses that college football has seen in the last 20 years. They are that good. And if Alabama can manage to generate a ferocious pass rush (their biggest question mark), their defense will go from very difficult to score on to almost impossible to score on.
From what I’ve seen, I don’t think Alabama’s special teams will be all that special. They do return most of their special teams guys from last season so they won’t be terrible, but I think there’s still work that needs to be done in this area. They have plenty of electrifying athletes that could be good to great returners, but none are proven at this time. Alabama’s placing kicking is pretty solid. Again they’ll utilize a short and long range kicker. Punting, however, is by far their biggest weakness. I have yet to see anyone who can punt the ball with any consistency.
With the best defense in the country, and with what I expect to be improved offensive production, Alabama will be a very, very difficult team to beat this season. With a schedule that sets up much more favorably than last season’s, I think Alabama will run through the season undefeated. The only three danger games for Alabama are Arkansas, LSU and Florida, and they catch the first two at Bryant Denny Stadium.
The SEC East is so wide open that it’s difficult to pick a winner, but I will say Georgia will emerge from the east to face Alabama in the SEC Championship game. I think Alabama will survive that game to probably face Oklahoma for the BSC National Championship. I think the same thing that has decided the last 5 national championship games will ultimately decide this one as well – defense. So in the end I think Alabama will ride the best defense in the country to another BCS National Championship.
Because of Alabama’s tepid offensive production last season, I often faded them against big numbers. With what I expect to be a more explosive offense this season, look for Alabama to be a much more solid play against hefty numbers this season.