jimmydafreak's Blog

Why You Shouldn't Bet Against the SEC in Bowl Season

By jimmydafreak | View all Posts
Posted Monday, December 07, 2009 09:36 AM   109 comments

This is a tried and true method for winning money betting on bowl games year in and year out, and I've used this theory successfully for almost 20 years.  My theory is that you NEVER bet against SEC teams.  Now I'm not advocating that you blindly bet on every SEC team (even though you would make money if you did so), but you should be betting on most of them.  The lines, the motivation of the teams invovled, and other intangibles should guide your final decision making process.

The SEC has 10 teams playing in bowl games and they probably won't lose more than two of them.

Here is why I believe this strategy is successful EVERY year.

Let's start at the beginning.  For the SEC, it all starts with recruiting.  This year's recruiting rankings are very typical of what you see every year  There are 6 SEC teams ranked in the top 9 nationally.

Now imagine if you're Mark Richt at Georgia and you have the nation's 9th best recruiting class.  That sounds great until you realize that you have the 6th best recruiting class in your own conference!!!  The point is the SEC has the best athletes in the country, and more of them.  That is a plain and simple fact, and if you want to win money, you need to understand this.

My second point is this.  If you've ever played sports, you know that when you play against top-notch competition, it pushes you to get better and play your best.  SEC teams not only play against the best, they also practice everyday against the best.  That creates an atmosphere that constantly pushes these great athletes to improve.

I had several people tell me this past week that Bama has not seen a defense like Florida's all year.  My response was "Yes they have.  They practice against one everyday in practice."

In a similar vain, SEC teams have to play much tougher competition in much tougher venues week in and week out.  When teams like Florida play teams like Ohio State in bowl games, Florida has already played 5 or 6 intense, pressure-filled games in the limelight of a national tv audience.  For a team like Ohio State, they usually will only play a couple of tough games a year, and even those "tough" games usually don't match the intensity of the SEC games.

So come bowl season, non-SEC teams usually cannot match the speed, and intensity of the SEC teams.  On top of that, they are usually facing a much higher caliber of athlete than they are accustomed to both in practice and in the games they have played.

A perfect example of this is when the two divisional ACC champions were matched up against two middle tier SEC teams a couple of weeks ago.  Georgia and South Carolina dominated both of these games.  Georgia Tech and Clemson simply could not match the speed, athleticism and intensity of the middle tier SEC schools.

So do yourself a favor this bowl season, please don't fade SEC schools.  In fasct, I recommend you do this.  After Alabama beats and covers against Texas in the national championship game, go back and read is thread and see how accurate it was.

I will also note that now that USC is not dominating the PAC 10 anymore, the competition level within that conference has elevated considerably the last two years.  Accordingly, I doubt I'll be wagering against that conference this bowl season either.

In sum, fade teams that are matched up against SEC & PAC 10 schools this bowl season, and I'm confident you'll make yourself a little extra coin this holiday season.

BOL TO ALL!!!


 

109 comments
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kroch says:
12/07/09 11:32AM

my worry with your theory is that the SEC simply hasn't been very good this year.

and they have loss to a number of teams OOC during the year.  Houston, Okie State, and UCLA to name a few.

Ice4Blood says:
12/07/09 12:30PM

 

you might like my preliminary card:

Oregon St, Cal, Nevada, USC, Georgia, Stanford, LSU, Oregon, Florida, Ol Miss, Troy, Alabama

Ice4Blood says:
12/07/09 12:31PM
forget about Arkansas...
jcam61 says:
12/07/09 12:32PM

Mississippi State only lost to Houston by 7 points.  They were the 2nd worst team in the SEC against a ranked opponent.    The other two games were good wins for the PAC-10 and the Big 12, albeit very early in the season.  Also, the OP recommended favoring PAC-10 teams alongside the SEC. 

It was already mentioned the big games the middle tier SEC teams won against higher ranked opponents so I don't need to mention those again.

The SEC also has a 10-4 record against other teams from BCS leagues and a total 42-6 overall nonconference record.

Heres the records of other BCS conferences against all nonconference...then vs BCS conferences in the 2nd column.

SEC          42-6 (.875)     10-4

Big East   32-8 (.800)      9-7

Pac-10     21-10 (.677)    8-7

ACC          30-18 (.625)   9-11

Big Ten     31-11 (738)    5-9

Big 12       35-13 (.729)   4-7

phobanbud says:
12/07/09 12:33PM
Nice hit Saturday, kid.
Gold_Rush says:
12/07/09 12:37PM
I agree,

The SEC is top notch

Not sure why Ice is dumping on Arkansas

they could have one of the best QB's in the nation
jcam61 says:
12/07/09 12:48PM

Arkansas should score more on E. Carolina than Houston did.  Their defense just isn't all that great.  I still expect Arkansas to win by two touchdowns.
GnarlesBarkley says:
12/07/09 12:48PM
agreed jimmy. it doesnt matter if the sec is having a down year, because a down year in the sec is still better than a good year for any other conference. this will be proved in the upcoming month. i cant see the sec losing more than 2 bowl games, florida and bama are
Gold_Rush says:
12/07/09 01:09PM

E Carolina stole a bunch of cash this weekend
but Houston was great all season long 

Arkansas should have beaten florida lets not forget

danxoc says:
12/07/09 01:11PM
Most of these covers expert cappers suck. When it comes to ROI bettingresource.com has the best capper. These guys have great ROI since they play many underdog moneylines. They hit overall around only about 56% but the ROI is great because of the odds they play.
jcam61 says:
12/07/09 01:16PM

What I meant was that Arkansas' defense wasn't very good.  If that was confusing at all..;)  Meaning ECU might score a lot of points as well.  

Even acknowledging that I think the Razorbacks put up 50, so no worries here.



jcam61 says:
12/07/09 01:19PM

What I meant was that Arkansas' defense is not very good.  It was a little confusing the way I put it.  I still think the Razorbacks are putting up at least 40 on ECU.  If that is enough we will see.
jimmydafreak says:
12/07/09 01:30PM

Well Kroch, first let me say that using the word "theory" was a poor choice of words, because what has happened in the past is fact - not theory.  I should have used the word "strategy."

It is not a "theory" that, year in and year out, the majority of the best athletes in the nation opt to play their collegiate football careers at SEC schools.

It is not a "theory" that 5 out of the 8 SEC teams were underdogs in last year's bowl games, and the SEC won 4 of those outright.  So tip #1 would be if you can get an SEC team with points, you should be on it like a hobo on a ham sandwich!!!  Overall the SEC cover 6 out of their 8 games or 75%.

It is my "theory," that based on similar results in bowl games pretty much every year since I've been alive, that the SEC will cover at least 70% of their bowl games again this year.  At first blush, you've got 4 no-brainers right off the top:  Alabama, Florida, Arkansas & Ole Miss.

As far as out-of-conference losses are concerned, the SEC loses a few of these every year, and of the 3 teams you mentioned that beat SEC teams, none would win in re-matches today IMHO.  Miss St and Tennessee were both breaking in new coaching staffs and are much, much better teams now versus when they played earlier in the season.

As for the Georgia/Okie St game is concerned, I watched the entire game, and it was very clear who the better team was, and it certainly wasn't the Cowboys.  And despite the fact Joe Cox was missing wide open receivers all over the field in his first collegiate start, Georgia still probably would have won had the officials not gift wrap Okie State's last 2 TDs.

And despite your contention that the SEC is not very good this year, that is the same thing people say every year.  But these are the same people who don't realize that SEC teams have to play each other, and that is a guaranteed 48 losses a year for SEC teams.  Of the 10 SEC teams that are playing in bowl games, only Georgia and Tennessee have lost out-of-conference games (UCLA & Okie State).

The fact of the matter is that the gap between the SEC and the other conferences (with the possible exception of the PAC 10) is widening, not shrinking.  Accordingly, this should (WILL) be another dominating performance by the SEC in bowl games this season.  It is your choice whether you want to profit it or not.

 

Ice4Blood says:
12/07/09 01:30PM

nice job breaking down the OOC records for each conference, JCam... was gonna do that and found yours, so now i don't have to...

i still gotta do head-to-head by conference, though...

jimmydafreak says:
12/07/09 01:35PM

I haven't had much of an opportunity to look at most of these games, but I seriously doubt I would have much of an argument with any of them.

BOL to you brotha!!!

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/07/09 01:41PM

The SEC is NOT down!!!  This false notion costs people money every year in bowl games.  Pretty much every SEC loss is to another SEC team.  The SEC is NOT down, but outside of Alabama and Florida, they are seeing a great deal of parity.  It will probably be even more so next year, when Florida drops back into the pack.

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/07/09 01:42PM

Yes, I second this!!!  Nice work JCam!!!

Ice4Blood says:
12/07/09 02:00PM

 

i came up with 10-3... what was the 4th loss?  i have Okie St over Georgia... Ga Tech over Vandy... UCLA over Tennessee...

jimmydafreak says:
12/07/09 02:04PM

Miss State also lost to Georgia Tech.

 

jwheels86 says:
12/07/09 02:05PM
Miss State lost to Houston as well
jimmydafreak says:
12/07/09 02:06PM

Thanks!!!  Yes it was!!!

jimmydafreak says:
12/07/09 02:10PM

Houston is not in a BCS conference.

jimmydafreak says:
12/07/09 02:13PM

I think he meant to say "forgot" Arkansas, not "forget" Arkansas.  So I don't think he was dumping on the at all.  Quite to the contrary.

 

Ice4Blood says:
12/07/09 02:26PM

yea, that's the one i missed... thanks!

and yes, i am not dumping Arkansas... meant i like that one, too...

jwheels86 says:
12/07/09 02:29PM
I was just naming another 00C loss in the conference Jimmy
kroch says:
12/07/09 02:30PM

I just cap the games, not the conferences Jimmy.

also several of the SEC's traditional big bowls are against the Little 10 which has been down for several years which inflates that bowl record.

I remember a few years back Florida getting whacked by lowly Michigan in Carr's last game---favored by over 2 TDs.  i do like SEC teams in bowls catching points, I'll say that.

As far as this year, Alabama isn't what i would call a "no brainer."  LSU vs. PSU should be a decent game---and one where i hope LSU is favored by 6-7 so i can take JoePa.  Florida will probably destroy Cincy.  Ole Miss is never as good as a favorite as opposed to when they are dogs (I put large money on them last year against Tech).  They will probably be favored by 6-7 and the game means a lot more to OSU. Tenn vs. VaTech is probably a coin flip.  Kentucky will be catching points against Clemson and could be the only SEC team not favored.  does Georgia really care about Shreveport?  ask yourself that question.

year in, year out bowl season is the toughest spot to make money.  i try and ignore my early leans and wait until gameday....there is just so much more to these games than in the regular season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GnarlesBarkley says:
12/07/09 02:40PM

How can people say the SEC is overrated when the last 3 national champions are Florida, LSU, Florida and a 4th will be crowned Jan 7.

Ice4Blood says:
12/07/09 02:51PM

did a conference by conference head-to-head breakdown of all the BCS conferences on my spreadsheet... tried to paste it here but it was saying too many characters...

suffice to say, it is revealing...

THEMUGG says:
12/08/09 10:41AM

 I have little doubt that LSU is more athletic across the board but.............

 

 JoePa vs Les Miles with 3 weeks to prep?

THEMUGG says:
12/08/09 12:36PM

 Say again??

linewatcher says:
12/08/09 01:59AM
i totally agree with your thoughs jimmy. the sec teams in bowl games have been money, especially sec underdogs--damn those oddsmakers that they caught on to this angle: only lsu is the sole sec dog this season. as for the pac10--i wholeheartedly agree. the conference as a whole has improved (except for washy st) and the pac 10 has historically well in bowl games.... i do believe the pac10 will surprise a lot of people this season....
linewatcher says:
12/08/09 02:00AM
scratch that sec underdog statement: tenny and kentucky are also sec dogs...
phancard says:
12/08/09 03:51AM
I really like LSU +3 , I think this line is a joke, I thought LSU was laying at least 3 myself.
phancard says:
12/08/09 01:37AM


The Only one I don't like is Tenn +4.5. I think V Tech Defense can stop Tenn Offense. Other than that all goes bro.


Best Conference IMHO are

1) SEC
2)Pac Ten
3)Big East
4)Big Ten
5)Big 12
6)ACC
Warblade says:
12/09/09 02:53AM
I still can't believe LSU is getting +3, despite the Tigers disappointing year. I thought they would be favored by 3. They are in my opinion, the best prepared SEC team in bowl games, the last few years, beating opponents by double-digit margin and dominating the majority of the game, despite what happens to them during regular season.

Florida is going to run Cincinnati out of the building.
Osirus13 says:
12/08/09 01:25PM
Im going to bet against every sec team i dont care if i lose money. Conference arguments are so gay
topperchris says:
12/09/09 03:15PM
GL..Hell KY has won 3 straight bowl games and there bottom of SEC most of the yrs
jimmydafreak says:
12/09/09 10:29PM

There were many intagible working against Bama last year, but despite Bama's loss, the SEC was still 6 & 2 ATS.  On it's face, the Florida/Cincy bears many of the same characteristics of the Bama/Utah game from last season.

Florida lost the SECCG and accordingly got matched up with an undefeated team from an inferior conference, and they are 10 point favorites.  But because all of the Kelly to Notre Dame hullabaloo, and this being Tebow's misty ride into the sunset, I would say the intagibles clearly favor the Gators at this point.

I have never said ALL SEC teams would cover, but I do believe that at least 7 or 8 will.  Could there be another Bama/Utah type of a game again this season?  Sure there can.  But even if there is one, I'm confident the SEC will again dominate this bowl season.

Right now, with all the drama that's going on in Knoxville, the only SEC team I really don't like is Tennessee.

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/18/09 02:43AM

These are the SEC plays that I will definitely be on.

Kentucky +7.5 (Best Bet)

Georgia -7

LSU +2.5

Florida -11.5 (Best Bet)

South Carolina -4.5

Ole Miss -3

Arkansas -7.5

Bama -4.5 (Best Bet)

I initially said I would play on any SEC team getting points, but due to considerable distractions in Knoxville, I definitely won't be playing Tennessee.  The Vols appear to be a sinking ship at this point.  See my Tennessee link for more info:

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100612028

I'm still mulling a play on Auburn, but right now I'm inclined to lay off.  If this thing drops below 7, I may bite.

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/21/09 03:58AM

Will add a non-SEC bet.

Utah +3.5

jimmydafreak says:
12/09/09 02:47PM

I agree with everything you say Warblade, and have said as much in another post.

I have been one of the biggest critics of Les Miles from day one, and have been often criticized on this board over the years for because of it.  I have consistently called him the "village idiot," and he has sure lived up to my expectations this season.  But as much as I don't like Lesie,  he has performed phenominally in all of his bowl games as head coach of LSU.  I think that is partially due to the fact he under performs during the course of the regular season, and ends up playing an overmatched foe in the bowl game.  Nevertheless, I LOVE LSU getting points here.

Of course I also agree with your assessment of the Florida/Cincy matchup.  That is probably the biggest mismatch of the bowl season IMHO.

jimmydafreak says:
12/09/09 02:49PM

I will also agree to hold all of you anti-SEC bets for whatever amount you want to bet (except Tennessee which is a sinking ship at this point).

jimmydafreak says:
12/21/09 01:10PM

I'm hyping winners my friend.

I will not bet Bama until the day of the game because I don't want to tie up that much money between now and then.  And while I'm all for getting the best line available, anything less than 7 in this game is a gift.  The game won't be close.

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/24/09 04:30AM

I also played SMU when they were +15.  The line has dropped on Bookmaker to 12.5, but even a that, I will make this play official.

SMU +12.5

jimmydafreak says:
12/08/09 02:28AM

I will automatically bet all SEC dogs.

The PAC 10 was outstanding in bowl games last season, and I expect much the same this season, especailly because no SEC and PAC 10 schools collide.  Therefore, both conferences will feed off of the weaker conferences again this season.

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/08/09 07:35PM

I love LSU +3 Phancard!!!  My top 3 SEC games are:

#1 Florida -10 (LOL)

#2 Bama -6 (Anything under 7 is golden)

#3 LSU +3 ("The Hat" is still the village idiot, but he's been terrific in bowl games and he's getting points versus the Big 10)

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/08/09 07:38PM

I agree.  This is a complete mismatch in every aspect.  Despite Florida's loss in the SECCG, they are still the 2nd best team in the nation, and #3 is far behind.

jimmydafreak says:
12/08/09 03:19PM

I LOVE how UConn plays, and Randy Edsall is very, very good coach.  But I agree with you that the line seems a bit short.  USC is very physical and has an awfully tough defense, so I think your Huskies will find the sledding pretty tough.  At -4.5, I think you've got to side with Spurrier here.

jimmydafreak says:
12/08/09 03:27PM

Osirus, I know you've been around here for a while, that you're a Texas fan, and that you have a super hot chick as your avatar , but I only ask one thing of you.  Can I please hold all of your anti-SEC bets?  I won't even charge you a vig.  I hate to see you give your money to those evil online books!!!  Afterall, the kids need new shoes!!!

jimmydafreak says:
12/08/09 03:31PM

Absolutely!!!  And with all the turmoil surrounding Brian Kelly, this is shaping up to be more of a mismatch with each passing day.

Regardless of the outcome of the SEC Championship Game, the Gators are still the second best team in the country.

 

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/08/09 01:07AM

SEC Lines:

Clemson vs Kentucky +7

Texas A&M vs Georgia -7

Virginia Tech vs Tennessee +4.5

Northwestern vs Auburn -8

Penn State vs LSU +3

Cincinnati vs Florida -10

Connecticut vs South Carolina -4.5

Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss -3

East Carolina vs Arkansas -8

Texas vs Alabama -6

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/07/09 03:35PM

Of course the SEC does not win and cover every bowl game, and I have never suggested that they do.  Of course I remember the Florida/Michigan game from 2 years ago, and I remember last year's Bama/Utah game.  But the point of my OP was not about individual games, it is about the SEC's overall performance in bowl games year-in and year-out.

As far as the individual matchups you speak of, with the exception of Alabama, I pretty much agree with what you're saying with respect to Kentucky, Tennessee & Georgia.  Va Tech traditionally performs very, very well in bowl games, so Tennesse will certainly have their hands full in that game.

At this point, Bookmaker only has lines up for Florida and Alabama so I'll have to wait and see what the lines are before I can really fomulate a strong opinion on the others.

As I said in the original post, "the lines, the motivation of the teams invovled, and other intangibles should guide your final decision making process."  I just wouldn't bet against any of these SEC teams.

jimmydafreak says:
12/07/09 03:38PM

Nice work there Ice!!! 

jimmydafreak says:
12/07/09 02:51PM

Yes, I understand JW, but Ice was responding to a post by jcam in which he stated that the SEC was 10 & 4 versus other BCS conferences.  Ice indentified 3 of those losses, but was struggling with the 4th.

CalBear says:
12/08/09 02:57PM

Good stuff Jimmy, I was going to mention your tid bit on the Pac-10 as well, but you already mentioned it. GL this Bowl year

doobiebrother says:
12/08/09 02:43PM
I'm a huge believer in the Sagarin ratings because they make me a ton of money every year in the bowl games, especially betting against teams that are ranked a lot higher in the human polls. Current Sagarin conference rankings, which usually change quite a bit as the bowl season progresses, are posted below. Remember this is ALL the teams in the conference, not just the good ones. I know someone will whine about the MWC being 8, but what should you expect with SDS, UNM, Wyoming, UNLV, and CSU on hand. Along with Army, that gives 7-5 Air Force 6 gift wins. Sagarin has BYU #29 and Utah #35 and rightfully so as the conference is definitely down a notch this year.

1 SOUTHEASTERN

2 PAC-10

3 ATLANTIC COAST

4 BIG EAST

5 BIG 12

6 BIG TEN

7 I-A INDEPENDENTS

8 MOUNTAIN WEST

9 WESTERN ATHLETIC

10 CONFERENCE USA

doobiebrother says:
12/08/09 10:16PM
I'm not touting anything until 'capping the games but there's a long history of teams that lose a shot at the national title game, and double digit favorites in a lesser bowl than expected in general, not playing well in their bowl game. Most recent examples are Utah over Bama last year and Boise over Oklahoma. So many make such a big deal about those wins, but the fact is Bama and Oklahoma went from possibly playing in the title game to playing a non-BCS team..... and simply didn't show up. If those games were FOR the BCS title, no way Boise and Utah win. This is not quite the same situation as Cincy IS a BCS team and Florida has more seniors playing their last game as opposed to Oklahoma and Bama being very young, but the demoralizing nature of Florida's blowout loss to Bama will be hard to overcome emotionally, and this is the biggest game in Cincy football history... as it was for Boise and Utah.
Ap1Bfreetorun says:
12/08/09 09:06PM
Thanks for the write-ups.  I also like the top teams of the PAC-10 this year.  I will NOT bet against any SEC team in the bowls, may pass a few games.  I, too, like Florida, Alabama and LSU.  Also Oregon.  Others pending...
gambling-devil says:
12/09/09 02:02AM


I would not as far as betting against every SEC team this bowl season but I will bet against many of them.

Overall, they will be 50% ATS at best

Lets wait and see


igetmoneyz says:
12/07/09 03:24PM
I like it! RTR!
Jay4Prez says:
12/07/09 06:12PM
SEC 66% LAST TWO YRS IN BOWLS, PRETTY GOOD ODDS. WHAT JUMPS OUT TO ME IS THAT IN THE LAST TWO BOWL SEASONS, TAKING SEC AS AN UD HIT 5-2, AND TAKING SEC AS A 3 POINT OR LESS FAV HIT 2/2. JUST ON UD AND -3 OR LESS IS 78%. SEC IS VERY GOOD WHEN IT COMES TO BIG GAMES, NO QUESTION ABOUT IT. ARE THEY AS STRONG THIS YEAR???
HURRICAN3 says:
12/08/09 11:33AM

eaisest pick of  the bowl games
cinni cant stop the run and florida got best pass defense in the country ..their pass packages are sick
these packages shut down bradford last year only difference was okl had a defense
HURRICAN3 says:
12/08/09 11:35AM
fla wins by over 20
jwheels86 says:
12/08/09 11:37AM

 

Did you just say as if Joe pa actually preps?

jwheels86 says:
12/08/09 12:46PM
Penn State plays no one all year and when they do, they get hammered. Even Miles staff can embarass them
jwheels86 says:
12/10/09 12:51AM
Are you like a Texas A&M fan?
koko11 says:
12/08/09 03:04PM

 Sounds smart...
phobanbud says:
12/08/09 03:35PM



phobanbud says:
12/08/09 03:36PM
 to the above.  Clicked post too fast. 
Ice4Blood says:
12/07/09 05:45PM
only two BCS conferences didn't have a winning head-to-head record against any other BCS conference... Big 10 and Big 12...
Ice4Blood says:
12/07/09 02:53PM

for this thread i'll just post the SEC...

2-1 vs. Pac 10

2-0 vs. Big East

5-2 vs. ACC (the two losses were both against GT, by Miss St and Vandy)

0-0 vs. Big 10

1-1 vs. Big 12

Ice4Blood says:
12/07/09 02:55PM

basically the only "quality wins" any BCS conference has over an SEC team are:

UCLA over Tennessee

Okie St over Georgia

Ice4Blood says:
12/09/09 01:36AM

that seems like a strong argument and not very gay...

Uconn34 says:
12/08/09 07:41PM
thanks for the comments on Uconn SC...i will be shocked if my boys keep it close
Uconn34 says:
12/08/09 01:21PM
do my huskies have a chance jimmy?? i thought that line was a tad low
Gold_Rush says:
12/07/09 03:43PM


thanks for putting that into better perspective for me.

Gold_Rush says:
12/07/09 03:45PM

I see - thanks
choiOi says:
12/21/09 11:48AM

I agree with your take and won't bet against the SEC in the Bowls....matter of fact, I am sitting out the Bowls entirely........BUT.......I will fade the SEC in the NC game.

 

choiOi says:
12/21/09 01:24PM

 

Oh really? LOL....you too eh?

 

choiOi says:
12/21/09 01:27PM

 

You spend too much time listening to talk radio.

Hawk_You says:
12/10/09 06:07PM
This blog is bullshit and should be removed. All this talk on im betting all SEC teams and im fading all big 12 teams is crap. Keep that mentality and you will lose. Dont bet with or against a team solely on what conference they play in! There are many other factors at work. Betting on sports has been around for almost 60 years, if just betting on a team b/c of what confernce their in wins you money we would all be millionaires, its not that simple.
Hawk_You says:
12/08/09 11:46PM
I didnt know vegas released all the sec games as a pickem. Your theory sucks, yes SEC might win 80% of their bowls this year but they may not cover. Your theory is good in a pickem bowl league lol.
jkirkpleasant says:
12/09/09 12:17AM
i totally agree with this thread assumption. SEC is by far made up of the strongest teams. the only matchup i don't like is georgia. they suck this year, period. a&m will beat them, or at least cover the 7 points. lsu will crush penn st. and florida vs. cincy? what a joke. same with bama vs. texas. it will be a blowout. colt mcblowjob is gonna have his ass handed to him.
-29- says:
12/09/09 01:23AM

 I love the SEC and study it's teams more than the rest of the conferences combined and I'm a bit concerned about the early flurry of coaches who will be leaving their teams before their "Bowl Games". Tenessee,LSU,and Georgia will all be without multiple coaches and Florida will be without DC Charlie Strong (although Cincy will be without HC Brian Kelly).South Carolina's DC Ellis Johnson and 'Bama DC Kirby Smart are being coveted by UGA to replace their departed DC Willie Martinez and 'Bama's LB coach is being courted by FSU to replace their retiring DC Mickey Andrews.

 Coaching vacancies aren't always a roadblock (Tennessee won the BCS championship even after OC David Cutcliffe left to coach Ole Miss with RB coach Randy Sanders calling the plays in the Fiesta Bowl),but I always like to consider them as part of my capping strategy.

JBoss says:
12/07/09 11:40PM
Everything you said is true............. except the Bama O faces D like Fla everyday in practice. This is not true and a common misconception. There are scout D's and Scout O's made up of younger classmen that first and second teamers go against. Starting D's and Starting O's only go against eachother during spring ball and camp but very limited. Bamas scout D is probably better than any of the scout D's their oponent faces in practice but they are no way Fla starting D comparable.

This is an especially a good year to bet the SEC because of the SEC is down perception. Also with you on Pac-10, who is probably historically the 2nd best conference to bet in bowl games.

Good luck

Crusher13 says:
12/10/09 01:02AM
The Little 12 is just not that strong this year. Texas has been exposed. Tech is pass happy with their rotating QB's but CAN play good D when it really wants to. OU is only good as Landry Jones is that day. A&M is Jekyll and Hyde. Baylor was at least consistent. OSU lost Dez and can't score if they wanted to. THe NORTH was just as weak when the winner (NEB) could only gain 104 yards against TX
(albeit they knew they couldn't pass.) Mizzou inconsistent. Anybody else worth mentioning? NOT!!!!!!
Crusher13 says:
12/10/09 12:34AM
I don't have feel about other SEC bowl games but I know they'll do real well against the LITTLE 12. TEXAS gets crushed by BAMA, Osu sucks w/o Dez and A&m will get drilled OU(85-10) style either way. FADE BIG(I mean little)12 this bowl season
Crusher13 says:
12/21/09 11:52PM
Come on Choi, you've been so far, successfully, swaying me to the DARK SIDE since that post from a galaxy far, far away.  I was still very very pissed at TX, but Obi-wan is still my mentor.  But  my father still  tries to  make me feel  the power of the DARK side.
johnnylongballs says:
12/09/09 05:07PM

Good luck with your strategy. The game everybody keeps bringing up is the Alabama Utah game. Alabama lost to Florida last year in the SEC Championship, a game that would have put them in the Nat'l Championship. Does everyone really think Bama had their whole heart into playing Utah after missing out on a chance to play in the Nat'l Championship?

dawgsrock says:
12/29/09 10:14AM
gtsum says:
12/29/09 10:21AM
I think the SEC does not do as well in bowls this year as in years past.  I think Penn State will take it to LSU, who has not done anything on offense all year..they are dreadful imo.  Tucky went down (although that was a very close game and clemson was lucky to cover).  I do like South Carolina to win BIG, and I like Forida to decimate Natti.  I like Texas to cover against Bama...I cannot see Bama running the ball with much success against Texas (unless they hit some deep passes to loosen the texas front 7 up a bit).  Good luck this bow season
topperchris says:
12/28/09 09:44PM
  Wahoo- you are correct..Joker is a joke..I would go get Leach at T.Tech..After the suspension i bet he would leave very quickly..Unfortently that wont happen because Joker is black and it they would get killed for not giving him the job..I bet this program in 3 yrs is back to 4-8...
topperchris says:
12/29/09 01:12PM
 I do not trust any Big 10 or Big 12 teams in meaningfull bowls//Okl,Ohio St, Penn St... All big disapointments in the big bowl games
WahooS says:
12/28/09 12:56PM
like LSU, Arkansas and Ole Miss but I like them because of their matchups being favorable, not because I think the SEC is most dominant conference, I had Kentucky last night and thought that amount of points was too many but that coaching staff was a joke, they kept showing that moron coach in waiting up in the press box named JOKER, he called one of the worst offensive gameplans of the seasons, it was an epic performance by him, if that jackass is really the coach in waiting then UK fans have zero to look forward too for many years, nice use of timeouts by the rest of the staff in the 2nd half as well, glad I lost my money on those whackjobs

 

Happy Holidays Freak

jimmydafreak says:
12/26/09 10:58PM

I played Boston College today at +9 based on the following Joe McKnight thread, but forgot to post it earlier.  The score is 24-13 right now so it may be a loser anyhow.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100610099

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/27/09 01:00PM
I already have Kentucky +7.5, but I will add Kentucky ML as well.
jimmydafreak says:
12/28/09 04:39PM

I got Kentucky early at +7.5 so the half point loss definitely stings, especially for a game that was as close as that one.  This is one of those situations where even though the game was capped correctly, I still lost.

There were 3 things in this game that stuck out to me.  First was the 4th quarter fumble.  The second was the motion penalty on 4th and short in Clemson's territory, and third was the wind.

Now clearly the wind was the same for both teams, but the wind made it very difficult for both teams to score, therefore it favored the team that had the lead at that time, which of course was Clemson.

I didn't really notice any major coaching faux pas, but then again my gf was distracting me for much of the game,  so I'm not saying there weren't any.  I definitely do think the wind had a big effect on the play calling in the 4th quarter however.

I do try to cap each game on their individual merits, but during bowl season, I often give great weight to the conference a particular team hails from.  And I do so because gambling is a game of odds, I generally want the odds in my favor.

In last night's game for example, SEC teams were 27 & 11 ATS as underdogs all time, whereas ACC teams were 9 & 33 ATS as favorites all time.  Not to mention that Kentucky was also a perfect 5 & 0 ATS this season on the road.  Moreover, I felt Kentucky was at least Clemson's equal coming into the game.  There certainly wasn't anything I could see that would have justified a 7 plus line in favor of Clemson.  I think if this game were played 10 times, Kentucky would win 5 of them and cover 9.

In the end, however, the play was a loser, and in the gambling world, that's all that really matters.

I appreciate your thoughtful remarks Wahoo, and I wish you the very best of luck the remainder of the bowl season.

jimmydafreak says:
12/28/09 04:46PM

I think anyone who watched the game knows that Clemson was very fortunate to have covered this game.  Kentucky was a very good play that would hit 9 out of 10 times IMO.  Last night was just that 1 that didn't.  That's why they call it gambling.

Despite the opening game loss for the SEC, I'm still very confident that the SEC will cover in 7 or 8 of their bowl games.  This one game does not defeat the overall strategy of favoring SEC teams in bowl games.

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/29/09 11:12AM

I realize that LSU's coach is the "Village Idiot," but talent-wise they are in the top 3 in the country.  Trust me, the talent gap between LSU and Penn State is vast.

Moreover, as moronic as Les Miles is, you must give this guy credit for his recruiting and his performance in bowl games.  How Penn State is favored in this game is mind-boggling to me.  I really don't see how this game is close.

As far as the Texas game is concerned, I also strenuously disagree with your conclusion that Bama won't be able to run the ball.  This is so because despite being ranked #1 in the nation versus the run, Texas's defense is not built to stop a power running attack like Alabama's.  They are small and fast, and basically employ a 4-cornerback secondary to stop the spread offenses of the Big 12, not power running teams like Bama.

Moreover, the Longhorn offense will be pretty much one-dimensional from the opening kickoff, which should make them fairly easy to defend.

For these reasons I also think Bama will dominate this game.

For a more detailed opinion on the national championship game, see my write-up at:

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100628319

In particular, scroll down to see the rushing defense comparison chart between these two teams.

jimmydafreak says:
12/29/09 11:51AM

I have 4 crackpipe plays for today:

Temple +4.5

Temple/UCLA UNDER 44.5

Miami -3 (line has moved to - 4 at BM)

Miami/Wisconsin UNDER 57

Good luck to all those who are on the same sides as me

 

 

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/29/09 10:03AM

jimmydafreak says:
12/29/09 10:08AM

I agree.  There are two games that have killed my in the bowl contest - Kentucky +7.5 and Boston College +9.  I really felt like both of these games should have covered.  If you flip those two games around, I'd be 14-4 in the contest, and be at least in the top 20.  As it is, I'm currently sitting in 165th place.  I'll need a miracle to work my way back up to the top.  I'm guess I'm gonna keep pounding those UNDERS and see if that can't get me back in the game.

 

jimmydafreak says:
12/29/09 01:59PM

For convenience, I'll put all "posted" plays in a single post.

Utah +3.5 

SMU +15 

Boston College +9

Kentucky +7.5 (Best Bet) 

Kentucky ML 

Georgia -7 

Temple +4.5

Temple/UCLA UNDER 44.5

Miami -3 (line has moved to - 4 at BM)

Miami/Wisconsin UNDER 57

Air Force +5

Oklahoma -8

Navy +6.5

Tennessee +5.5

Tenn/VT UNDER 49.5

LSU +2.5

LSU ML

Florida -11.5 (Best Bet)

South Carolina -4.5

Ole Miss -3

Arkansas -7.5

Bama -4.5 (Best Bet)

I will add some more this tomorrow I'm sure.

BigPapa21 says:
12/29/09 07:35AM
the kentucky gm was just a stinker...the exception not the rule..gl
fyrproof says:
12/28/09 01:20PM
Well so far (it being Monday)USC first Pac-10 to cover and not lose outright,and UNC loses but covers 'cause the 'stache plays it safe at the end.SEC 1-0,PAC10 1-2.Bulldogs and Bruins next two up.Got 'em both at -61/2.
JBrilman says:
12/28/09 01:16PM
I had KENT +7 last night this idea didnt work out so well
iceman52 says:
12/28/09 04:54PM
I like Florida but Texas is the play in the big game
Fairweather_fan says:
01/07/10 04:50AM


Your beloved SEC is something like 3-6 ATS in bowl games by the way.....whoops
ThorsHammer says:
12/27/09 02:33PM
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User: jimmydafreak
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