In my pre-season VT/Bama write-up, I said that Bama would be a much better team this season than last even though the pre-season magazines and most people were predicting otherwise. I also predicted that Bama would win the SEC West, beat Florida in the SECCG, and go on to beat the Big 12 champion in the national title game. Many laughed, but here we are.
First I would like to say that even though I’ve done quite a bit of statistical analysis on both teams, statistics won’t be the basis for this write-up. I will include some of what I’ve done in other posts in this thread for those who are interested. But statistics in bowl games are largely irrelevant IMO because bowl games are always out-of-conference games and each conference is really a league unto itself. In this case Texas plays in the Big 12 and Bama in the SEC, and those to conferences are very different in the way they approach and play football. Instead, I will focus more on how I think these teams matchup, and what effect I believe these matchups will have on the outcome of this game. See also my thread on ”Why You Shouldn’t Bet Against the SEC in Bowl Games.”
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Before I do so however, I just want to make the point that the best and most consistent formula for winning football games (at all levels) is not some fancy-schmanzy offensive du jour. It is lining up and physically dominating the opposition in the trenches. When you can do that week in and week out, it is by far the most consistent formula for winning, and consistency is a very good thing for those of us who wager. I could cite literally endless examples of this in both the college and pro game, but because we’re talking about Alabama anyhow, we really need not look any father than the Florida/Bama game wherein the Crimson Tide ran the ball 17 consecutive times in the 4th quarter without throwing a pass to close out the game against the #1 team in the country.
Bama is the epitome of smash-mouth football which explains why they have methodically won 25 games over the last two seasons. Bama has dominated every team they’ve played in the trenches thus far this season, and there really is no reason to believe they won’t do the same thing against a Texas team not accustomed to playing that brand of football. Bama is all about imposing their will on both sides of the ball.
Texas (much like Florida) employs a defense that is small but very fast, and is loaded with blue-chip athletes. This type of defense is very effective when playing against the spread offenses of the Big 12, but is ill-suited to stop a team that is as powerful at the point of attack as Alabama. Texas’s defensive coordinator Will Muschamp (a Nick Saban protégé) knows he has to match Bama’s physicalness in the trenches, but knowing and doing are two very different things. And the problem for Texas is that they are not accustomed to playing such teams, and they can’t replicate Bama’s power in practice. And if you can’t practice against it, I think your chances defending it successfully in a game situation are remote. Like I always say, you can’t fake being physical. You either have it or you don’t.
After playing Bama, Florida’s defense lamented about how difficult Ingram and Richardson (who is better than Ingram) are to tackle. In order for Texas to successfully defend Bama’s running attack, their D-line and LBers will have to play lights out, because if Texas has to rely on their secondary to consistently make stops in the run game, they will be in for a very long day. That is so because Texas is very light on the back end (175 lbs corners and 195 lbs safeties). There are no 220lb run stoppers in the secondary. Their secondary is essentially comprised of 4 conerbacks designed to defend the spread offenses they regularly face in the Big 12, not to stuff power RBs like Ingram & Richardson (have I mentioned that Richardson is better than Ingram).
In
order to keep more men in the box to stop the run, I think that
Muschamp will probably roll the dice and play man with his corners, and
at times, utilizing safety help over top. Bama will probably see some exotic robber packages, and will rarely, if ever, see a zone look. This will allow Texas to dedicate more people to stopping the run. Bama’s physical receivers, however, could also cause Texas’s small defensive backs some heartburn both in coverage and YAC.
Offensively Bama will try to do to Texas what they did to Florida - neutralize their team speed by running right at them. Overall, however, they will aim to be fundamentally sound and balanced. They
will mix in a few exotic looks to spread Texas out to open some holes
in the running game and to create some mismatches in the passing game
particularly for TE Colin Peek.
Conversely, Alabama is very big on defense. Bama’s corners are bigger than Texas’s safeties, and Bama’s safeties are the size of Texas’s linebackers. Based
on Bama’s size, one would probably instinctively conclude that Bama is
slow on that side of the ball, but nothing can be farther from the
truth. Bama’s corners love to play bump and run,
which allows Kirby Smart a lot of flexibility in mixing up his
defensive play calls thereby confusing opposing QBs. Because
Texas does not have a meaningful running game that would scare anyone,
particularly someone as strong up the middle as Bama, expect Bama to be
in nickel and dime sets most of the game. That
means we’ll see more of players like Marcell Dareus, Marquis Johnson
and Robby Green, and a lot less of players like Mount Cody, the slow
white boy Cory Reamer and Justin Woodall.
The knock on Colt McCoy is his arm strength on the long throws outside. Accordingly, Bama will try to take away the short over-the-middle passes and force everything to the outside. They
will accomplish this by lining up on the inside shoulder and sitting on
the inside routes, and by having LBers undercut the middle routes
effectively taking away those short over the middle throws. This
will force McCoy to throw over the top of McClain to exploit the middle
of the field, and hopefully force McCoy into some mistakes. This may also force McCoy to hold the ball a little longer and should give pass rushers a little more time to find their mark.
Offensively
I think Texas will take a page out of Utah’s and Auburn’s playbook by
going very up-tempo in hopes of catching Bama in some personnel
mismatches. Texas is, after all, a more talented
version of Utah who only rushed for 13 yards but threw for 336 against
Bama in last year’s Sugar Bowl. I think for
Texas to have a chance to come away with a victory they’ll need to get
Utah/Auburn–like start by jumping out on top early and forcing Bama to
play catch-up. That should prevent Bama from controlling the tempo of the game.
It’s no secret that the key to beating McCoy is to get pressure on him. Expect Bama to try and confuse McCoy and his O-line by bringing rushers from all from all angles. Unlike
the game plan versus Tebow which was not to sack him, but to force him
to throw from the pocket, Bama will try to flush and frustrate McCoy
every chance they get.
As I said in my pre-season write-up, Texas is one of the few teams in the country that possess elite talent. But Texas has not faced a more complete team this season than Alabama. Alabama is more balanced on offense than any team Texas has played thus far, and have best running backs in the nation. Alabama's defense is fiercer, faster and more athletic than any team Texas has played so far. Ultimately, however, I think Alabama will be far too physical for Texas on both sides of the ball. I would expect Texas to lose at least two starters due to injuries during the course of the game. As I stated above, the team that dominates in the trenches usually dominates on the scoreboard. Because
of that, I render the same opinion about this game that I did in the
Florida game which is that not only will Bama win this game, they will
do so convincingly.
Don’t be fooled. Play on Bama and the SEC. Anything less than 7 is like manna from heaven.