jkirkpleasant's Blog

Posted Friday, July 18, 2014 04:34 PM

July 18th, 2014 - mlb plays

Hey guys,
I stopped for a long time, but I'm back today giving it a shot.
Today I like:

Milwaukee 1st 5 (+150)
Milwaukee ml (+155)
Colorado 1st 5 (+130)
Colorado ml (+140)
Miami ml (+115)
Los Angeles Dogers (+120)

all for 1 unit

gl! 


Posted Tuesday, November 19, 2013 08:13 PM

2nd half strategy - Nov. 19

ytd: 24-18-4 (+13 units)

Minnesota/Washington Over 101 (2 units)


Posted Tuesday, November 19, 2013 03:38 AM

this 2nd half strategy

I accidentally told a lie on the forums tonight...  I claimed that tonight was my first losing night of the nba season this year, but after actually going through my records, it's really the 2nd.  On October 30, I went 4-6-1 for a loss of 3 units.  Sorry to anybody who's paying attention.  But the good news is that of all the days of NBA season this year, I've only had two days where I was down any units on the day.  So far, this system that I've been playing with is 24-18-4 and is +13 units.  I think it should continue to generate positive results, but you never know.

My basic theory is that the the optimum value on NBA betting happens at halftime.  The first half of the game has been played and we have several important pieces of information.  First, the original line - spread and total.  Second, the actual score at halftime, which should be 1/2 of the original spread and total.  Lastly, the 2nd half line as it's posted at halftime. 
What I've found over time and am testing with this strategy is that when there is a large variation from where the score should be, that is half of the original line, it is more likely that the 2nd half will variate back towards the original line more often than go further away from it.  This theory applies only to sides.  When analyzing the total, the opposite seems to happen more often.  I've also found that there's a little bit more value because the 2nd half to... [More]

Posted Monday, November 18, 2013 09:08 PM

2nd half strategy - Nov. 18

ytd: 23-16-3 (+15 units)

Chicago -10 (2 units)


Posted Sunday, November 17, 2013 02:14 PM

2nd half strategy - Nov. 17

ytd: 22-15-3 (+15 units)

November 17, 2013

Toronto/Portland Over 97.5 (2 units)



Posted Saturday, November 16, 2013 08:05 PM

2nd half strategy - Nov. 16

Took 10 days off to analyze.  I think my 2nd half strategy is off to a good start, just needed some tweaking.

ytd: 17-14-3 (+5 units)

November 16, 2013:

Magic -3 (2 units)


Posted Wednesday, November 06, 2013 08:10 PM

2nd half strategy - Nov. 6

ytd: 16-14-2 (+4 units)

clippers -7 (3 units)


Posted Tuesday, November 05, 2013 09:42 PM

2nd half strategy - Nov. 5

ytd: (14-13-1)  0 units

LA Lakers ml +100 - 3 units

got drunk last night and foolishly doubled up a losing bet against clippers and over.  yikes.  sorry for anybody that tailed it.
i'm never going against the clippers this season.  they are an anomaly for my strategy.
BOL guys!



Posted Monday, November 04, 2013 11:52 PM

2nd half strategy - Nov. 4

ytd: 14-11-1 (+6 units)

Houston -1 (1 unit)
Houston/Clippers Under 106.5 (2 units)



Posted Sunday, November 03, 2013 10:36 PM

2nd half strategy - Nov. 3

I'm quietly having a pretty decent start to the year...
ytd: (13-11-1) +5 units

Atlanta -3.5 (1 unit)




Posted Saturday, November 02, 2013 08:34 PM

2nd half strategy - Nov. 2

ytd: (10-9-1) +3 units

76ers +1 (1 unit)




Posted Friday, November 01, 2013 07:31 PM

2nd half strategy - Nov. 1

ytd: (6-7-1) +1 unit

I'm going to try to do a little tweaking with my system.  Before it was based on variation from the original line, but I think that this theory applies less for over unders than with sides.  For instance, last nights clippers/golden state game, the line was 202ish, then was at 123 at halftime, so my strategy says to take the under 102, but the original o/u line was so off, it didn't work.  the 2nd half was about equal scoring to the 1st.  Also, you've got CP3 having a record night in a shootout with steph curry...  on the flip side, the charlotte/houston game the other night did the same thing in reverse.  the 1st half was about 15-20 off on the under, and that trend repeated in the 2nd half.  So from here on out, my strategy will mostly apply to sides, with the occasional o/u.  i will assess each spot as it comes.

I'm primed and ready, so will try to post these 2nd halves as they come.
Good luck guys!
See you at halftime...


Posted Friday, November 01, 2013 12:10 AM

2nd half strategy - Oct. 31

ytd (6-7-1) -1 unit
happy halloween guys.

Golden State -1.5 (3 units)
Under 102 (1 unit)

gl!



Posted Thursday, October 31, 2013 06:15 PM

Fade Florida!

so far the 3 Florida teams in the NFL are:  3-19 su and 5-17 ats.

Bengals -3



Posted Wednesday, October 30, 2013 07:27 PM

2nd half strategy - Oct. 30

ytd: (2-1) - +2 units

Had positive returns on this strategy yesterday.  Let's see how it turns out tonight.

BOL guys!



Oct. 30th  2nd half plays are:

(to be continued at the half...)





Posted Tuesday, October 29, 2013 02:25 PM

new strategy this year

hey guys,i've always had a hard time with nba in past years (most of my success has been with cfb, nfl, and a little with mlb).  but for some reason nba always throws me off.  so i've come up with a new strategy for this year and would love any feedback before the year tips off.  my plan is to only bet 2nd halves based on the discrepancy from the opening number.  so if the total for the game is say 200 and at halftime, the total's at 80, then 120 points would be needed to hit the original total.  obviously that's unlikely and linesmakers generally put the halftime number at somewhere between what the total should be and what the 1st half showed.  i believe there's an opportunity here to take advantage.  if in the above example, the 2nd half total is listed at 90, which it should be, then there's a 30 point difference between what that total would be and the original line.  so i would take the over 90 2nd half.  the bigger the discrepancy, the larger the bet.  i'm thinking about rating these as 1-5 unit plays based on the amount of difference between the original line and what the 2nd half line is based on the halftime score.  this could work for sides or totals and the bigger the discrepancy, the bigger the bet on the 2nd half.  this is based on the idea that the original lines are probably pretty accurate most of the time and it leaves all the statistics and most handicapping factors in the hands of the linemakers a... [More]

Posted Saturday, October 05, 2013 03:20 PM

gambler's fallacy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

I've been a sports better for just under a decade and lately I've been finding myself questioning this concept as it relates to sports betting. 
The basic concept is that if head's comes up on a coin 4 times in a row, the chances that it will come up heads the 5th time is still 50/50.  I wonder if the random occurrence of a coin flip mimics a point spread or moneyline?  Obviously, we don't know the outcome of a game, which is why they play it.  But because of the vast amounts of factors and considerations when handicapping a game, does this same principle apply?
Just curious if anyone else has an opinion on this.
Thanks and BOL!



Posted Saturday, October 05, 2013 03:35 AM

i'm a sucker for a tease

here's my teaser for tomorrow's morning games.  taking a shot at it -143:
Navy +0.0
Florida State -3
Louisville 18.5
Alabama 40.5

gl gents! 


Posted Monday, September 30, 2013 11:28 PM

if this week has taught us anything...

it's not really a good idea to bet against manning, brady, or brees.



Posted Saturday, September 07, 2013 01:55 PM

how about those southeastern louisiana lions!?

They've been playing some stout defense in the 1st half.  43 point underdogs!!  down by 3 at the half.
You know every one of those lions players watched last week's LSU/TCU game over and over.

SLU 2nd half?  maybe they'll get a ton of points and they're playing hard. 


Posted Thursday, August 29, 2013 05:45 PM

usc/unc

UNC +12 - 2 units
Under 57 - 1 unit
parlay UNC +12/Under 57 (+264) - 1 unit

those're my plays.
gl on the season guys!



Posted Saturday, January 19, 2013 09:46 PM

nucks

opening night!

ml (-170) *1
pl (+175) *2

gl! 



Posted Saturday, January 19, 2013 08:31 PM

ray lewis vs. tony gonzales in the superbowl

call me crazy, but at 10/1 odds, i say atlanta plays some inspired football tomorrow as do the ravens.
the one thing nobody expects is this matchup.  why not?



Posted Wednesday, December 26, 2012 11:54 PM

The importance of head coaching

Enough can't be said for the role that the head coach has during the bowl season.  The coach that leads the team during the whole season and gets these players to a bowl (especially in these lesser conferences) gets a promotion to a better conference school, then the players are left confused and the defensive coordinator has to pump up these guys on the national stage.  There were lots of cappers talking about June Jones being in familiar territory during the Hawaii bowl, but I'd say a bigger factor in SMU's win was the inexperience of Fresno St.'s coach suddenly being thrust into the role.  Tonight's win by Central Michigan is another example of a team in coaching transition not pulling out the win.  Tomorrow, in my opinion, is yet another example of a good team losing a coach in the big game.  San Jose St. loses Mike MacIntyre to Colorado suddenly between accepting the bid for the Military bowl and playing it.  And guys, they're still a touchdown favorite!!!
Bowling Green (moneyline) = big

gl!


Posted Monday, December 17, 2012 10:11 PM

2nd half total

Over 19 (even) - 2 units

gl!


Posts:  1 2 3 4  

Profile

User: jkirkpleasant
Joined: April 2009
Location: British Columbia
Team: New Orleans Saints
Occupation: Health Services

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories