NFL Total thoughts Week 9

Damn those exhibition games in London. I was talked out of this game and went with Jax and jax Over instead - oops. Luckily Giants and Under bailed me out.

NyBretts @ Beefalo -5.5, 42

Battle royale for the AFC East with the in state rivalry. Buffalo has been stellar with fast strong defense, solid special teams, awesome receivers and a young winning QB. THe Jets have the legend "Father Time" who loves to make as many touchdowns as interceptions. High on charisma and media hype this team has a shot against any team in their division. I expect this to be a good battle with turnovers leading to touchdowns. Everyone has been riding the Bills bandwagon and finally got burned last week in Miami. I expect them to come out firing at the start of this home game and I expect the Jets to try to keep pace by throwing the ball all over the place causing interceptions and deep receptions/touchdowns. The Bills have also been turning the ball over a lot by fumbling in the last three games. The early sharps seem to think that the Jets can keep up with the points the Bills are going to shell out, because the line has moved off of the key number -6 in favor of the Jets even though the pubic % of bets are on the Bills. THis reverse line movement early leads me to believe that this game will go OVER the 42 and the Jets may cover or win straight up.
Over 42 (NYJ 33 Buffalo 27)

Jax @ Cin +8, 39.5

I am biased because I constantly make money on the Jax Over, s... [More]

NFL Total thoughts week 8

Last week 4-0, total record 4-0
SD @ london v. NO +3, 46
I like the UNDER in England.
I understand what you are saying and thinking, the NFL wants a shootout to get fans exited...
I saw the same posts last year with Giants and Fins, SHOOTOUT was the word of the day.

UNDER for three reasons. 
1- Both of these teams must win. Defense wins ball games. NFL agenda aside, the team agenda and the owners agenda is to make the playoffs. NO is in the bottom of the tough NFC South (2 games back), while SD is a game back of Denver  in a softer conference, they still have a tough schedule (@Pit, Ind, Atl, @ Tampa, Den). Already lost 4 and can't go 8-8 with little chance of a wild card.

2- Soccer pitches suck as football fields. The English have a different kind of grass that doesn't hold up to the size/weight/cleat of the average NFL layer, much less the linemen. It is going to rain.... its England. NO likes turf and dome while SD is from....you know. 

3- Europeans are used to "football" being a low scoring affair (2-0, 2-1, 4-2 whoa a blowout) Look for a game with well mixed plays favoring the ground and some turnovers. Look for the teams to exploit the others weakness, both are weak against the run (100+ y/g). NO has a slight advantage defending the pass only allowing their opponents 55% pass completion. Both teams like to give the ball away NO-13 SD-10. And no Reggie who is worth at least three points on the total. 

If you like the over you sh... [More]

NFL Total thoughts week 7

Thought I would start a new thread on the topic of totals. These are a few of my thoughts. Feedback is always appreciated. 

Min @ Chi -3, 37.5
Historically these are two defensive minded division rivals. As of late CHI-TOWN's D has been looking a little on the aged side and overrated the past few years. Contrarily,  Chicago's offense is finally clicking under Orton. The special teams are due for a few runbacks (go Hester). Minny has a good defense especially in the middle on that line. The special teams are also under-rated as is the offense who finally has a QB with good estixperience. The public and "money" has pushed the line down from 39. I do not think it will go much lower and it might rise right before kickoff.

Over 37.5  (I would guess Min 27- CHI 24 in an overtime win)

Ind @ GB +1, 47

Peyton has played his 4 pre-season games in the first regular season. He is now finally back in rhythm with the game and his team mates. After that come back against HOU and the blow out last week at Balt, the team can handle one more road team. Rodgers continues to play beyond expectation even while injured. Grant is a beast and the Indy rush defense is still suspect even after a showing last week. Lots of holes = lots of scores. The money/public has moved the line down one point. This will probably be a nailbitter with a score in the last two minutes to push it over and win the game. 

Over 47  (i would guess Ind 27 GB 23)

Sea @ TB -10.5, 38... [More]