joeyd88's Blog

Lets Ask Ourselves

By joeyd88 | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, November 22, 2009 12:50 AM

17 comments

I noticed one of these weeks last year and it happens often in college.

There are quite a few 9-11 pt lines this week. 8 to be exact

Buff @ Jax -9 NO -11.5 @ TB

Pitt @ KC -10 Ari -9 @ Stl

Sea @ Min -10.5 NYJ @ NE -10.5

Was @ Dal -11 Cin -9.5 @ Oak

Which says to me that vegas is trying to entice additional 10 point teaser action from the amateurs like myself. Having been caught in this before, it seems clear to me that we ( I ) need to figure out which one or two of these teams aren't going to win. There is no way vegas lets us below average bettors have our free pick of any combination of of these 8. There would be some 50+ combinations that would cash if all these teams were shoe-in to just win the game.

Soo Someones Gonna Lose. Whos it gonna be?

I think this is prally a good strategy to figure out a number of key things about the lines this week. It'll tell us whos valued in on the dog ML. Whos a great double digit dog bet. KC maybe?

This proved to be prudent last year when I started this topic in the forum during a similar week.

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joeyd88 says:

11/22/09 12:58AM

this is intriguing

take some time away from writing your GLs and shamrocks and simply typing some picks on the screen

thats all i see in this forum is freaking every one touting there picks or trailing, its getting ridiculous, been here a while and you'll notice my posts count is very low compared to the 30 hours a week i spend on this site, its getting discouraging to look in these forums for information, "game conversations" are so much better

And thats a shame, this site could be more.

For instance I have spread sheets that I've put on google docs and shared with the community in a hyperlink on a post.

Our collective knowledge is hardly ever chronicalled on this site and that is what would really be valuable. Thanks for your picks though, blah

joeyd88 says:

11/22/09 01:05AM

this will prove valuable

i say KC, without troy pitt d is slightly above average, could mean an over too.

joeyd88 says:

11/22/09 01:17AM

Theres only 5 of them, and they are all sketchy. I feel like there is greater value in a double digit dog than trying to figure out gb-6 vs sf.

I will say though, i did play Indi +1 when it came out and Phil -3 +105 when it came out, usually large. Couldnt pass on it

Took Indi +11 / NE PK / NO -1

and Bal PK(on MNF) / Pitt PK / Cin PK

Jax -9

NYJ +10.5

NYG -6.5

GB Under 42

Cle/Det Under 38

Sea/Min Over 46

NO / TB under 50.5

joeyd88 says:

11/22/09 01:21AM

Sea +10.5 also, like them to stay within the number

As long as its hassleback and not wallace

JackSmack says:

11/22/09 01:29AM

I like Oakland tomorrow, thats disgustingly sick. But I do.

Rams been playing much better ball as well. Who knows what to espect from arizona on a weekly basis

New Orleans hasnt covered since ESPN started sucking them off on MNF vrs falcons.

Those are the 3 I do not like tomorrow, bol. Im a home dog type of guy, but i see no shot in KC, pittsburgh is good to cover that game.

renroh123 says:

11/22/09 01:37AM

Really interesting post. I live here in Vegas now, and know first hand that 3 of the first 4 weeks (NFL) were devestating to the Books out here. Favorites coming through killed them one week, whereas a SB manager out here told me it was one of the worst days his casino had in 20 yrs (Station casinos). So, in reading your post, which makes great sense, I would think teasing the dogs would make more sense..... hmmmm, interesting indeed. Thanks for posting it.

renroh123 says:

11/22/09 01:38AM

Got to say it once more...awesome post bro!

procapper55 says:

11/22/09 02:07AM

I have been doing 10 pt teasers consistently, but usually mix in college and over/unders in different combinations.

For tomorrow...
I did the following:
Vikes - may not cover should win due to a strong offense and one of the toughest defenses seattle has yet to face
Steelers - coming off a defensive battle against the bengals and losing at home... have all the weapons to score against a mediocre (at best) KC team and KC will have a tough time putting together consistent drives against the steelers D
Patriots - lost to the jets in a tough game early in the season, but the team has come together and the offense is clicking on all cylinders... Mark sanchez at the helm of the other team, no confidence in that guy.

ratherBgambling says:

11/22/09 02:12AM

I like Seattle to cover the number. They took last week's loss to heart and are actually still interested in playing hard. Also, Minny isn't exactly losing sleep over this game so maybe Minny takes the foot off the pedal and wins by 6. BOL

ratherBgambling says:

11/22/09 02:13AM

Call me crazy, could see AZ losing. They are like Jeykll and Hyde

misfits says:

11/22/09 02:26AM

dont forget about the other sides of all those. with a 10 pt tease you have a huge 20 middle opportunity

joeyd88 says:

11/22/09 02:27AM

thanks man

glad to see some vets working the forums in here

I do like detroit tomorrow, which i will always hate myself if it loses cause who bets on the Lions, but Cle is such garbage, took them under 14 points on MNF big and faded them against a big spread on MNF, Helped me cash the under

I think all of these things apply once again.

Its not gonna be like the BUF game, at least not that low. 17-9

CLE no tds in many weeks

The GB under looks like a POD

Jax Jags are strong to cover the number, dont over look it cause sometimes they are pretenders

WAS prally plus the points even in dallas, why not and the under

NO will do work on Freeman on grass, they are good on grass

NYJ--> dunno if they can hang, if NE had welker last time it might have been a rout, and it in NE

NO under 50.5 is a strong play too, they wont be behind and their defense is much improved, no Bush to give them ridiculous field position so they will have to have longer drives for points,

Just a hunch on the giants

joeyd88 says:

11/22/09 02:30AM

i only consider those 20 point middles when the numbers are right

mostly because a push on one item means a loss of the wager, so i try to work it to half point to always avoid the push loss ( i dont think I could handle that shit, i might freak).

I did nail one of those on thursday night

MIA +15, CAR +8, Over 30, Under 54

Every one of those numbers was perfect so i had to. That was a 12 point teaser by the way. I like alot of +3 to be in 12 point teasers to get the spread over two scores (i.e. 15)

misfits says:

11/22/09 02:32AM

you can always make the lines what you need to. on one side you may need 6.5 points and the other maybe 12.5. line up the games with what you think they need and put your teaser together

kerryvonerick says:

11/22/09 02:37AM

kittsd says:

11/22/09 06:20AM

Terrible spot for CIN so I would remove them. I know Arizona has played well on the road this year but I would probably take them off the card as well. NE, PIT and MN are my favorites of the teams you mention. Good Luck.

Kid_Rio says:

11/22/09 03:53AM

Maybe Tampa could pull an upset at home? They have been scoring.

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