johnnybones's Blog

Posted Monday, May 10, 2010 05:11 PM

Betting Underdogs for the entire baseball season

Baseball season is in swing now and it is ALWAYS my favorite time of the betting year. The value in baseball is the best. I have been around sports betting for MANY years and it is really tough to find a capper that understands that value. That is not to say it's a fun hobby for most of us, but good, hard working cappers can find real value betting baseball. If you primarily bet on favorites and the better team during baseball season, you may not want to read on...I never lay juice beyond -110 in baseball.

Over the past decade and a half, I have learned from some great professionals in Las Vegas. The first tidbit I picked up very quickly during my three years living in Vegas was that betting favorites in baseball is a death wish (and betting faves in almost any sport over the long haul is not a good practice). Baseball is so day to day and to lay huge juice on even a much better team makes it very tough to post a profit throughout a season. Instead look for underdog value. There are several factors I will share as I continue to contribute to this blog - but taking into consideration travel, home underdogs, and trends, (Dodgers have inconsistent pitching and with Manny in line up were over the number 13 out of the first 17 games this year. In another example, the Angels last season has a horrific bullpen, but mashed the ball. They went over the number during one stretch 18 our of 20 games) there are always some excellent plus odds games to wager on. Joe Public lov... [More]

Posted Tuesday, August 11, 2009 12:21 AM

Working together to win on football betting

Hello fellow sports wagerers,

Well here we are right on the cusp of another college football and NFL season. I am busy once again ranking teams and getting ready for what I hope will be another winning football season. I spent almost two years in Vegas (several years back) as a "Shopper" looking for the best lines on games that a professional betting group was looking to bet on any given Saturday or Sunday. The group won and did quite well the two seasons I was there (and also did pretty well on baseball those two years too.)

I am an honest sportsbook player. I love all the touts that talk about these insane winning percentages, the too good to be true kind of things you hear on radio advertisements or read online. Truth is, I am looking to be in the high 50%'s, and as close to 60% this football season as possible. That is extremely difficult to do, but I did it both years with that betting group I worked with.

I am interested in sharing what I have learned and made my own these past several years and am looking for some other cappers to work on statistics with me to maximize profits and look for an even greater edge then we may have had doing this alone.

I will be in Vegas every Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this season and also have 2 guys who I work with who live there year-round. Add me as a friend, or drop me an email at is anybody is interested in talking more about systems and the one I will be employing this football se... [More]

Posted Monday, May 04, 2009 06:01 PM

Value in Baseball Underdogs... and Season bets

Hello All,

I am relatively new to this site, but have been sports betting since about 2003. I took a few years off but am back on since November of 2008. I read several blogs everyday and also read the main board where people post their picks and also often rip on one another. I am very uninterested in that type of crap and instead and more interested in trying to make some money.

I feel baseball can be very profitable due to the value in underdogs. To be able to grab a very solid pitcher at +120 or +130 or even sometimes +150 odds is very tempting. I do not believe or understand how so many people who post picks take HUGE favorites in baseball. It has been my experience that is is almost impossible to win over the long haul consistently betting favorites.

To break even betting an average of -150 favorites in baseball, you need to nail 60%... just to break even. I think it is worth a cappers time to focus on statistics that might favor underdogs. I have been looking for two or three other cappers to work with this year where we could combine systems, chat each morning, and try and come up with consensus picks..... plus eliminate picks that may not be so good upon closer evaluation.

The other area where I have had success in the past is riding a hot team in over/under baseball bets. Four years ago, they Dodgers has a great staff but could not score a run to save their lives. They were UNDER on over 60% of the games for the year and on Sundays, they... [More]


User: johnnybones
Joined: December 2008

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