Hello All,

I am relatively new to this site, but have been sports betting since about 2003. I took a few years off but am back on since November of 2008. I read several blogs everyday and also read the main board where people post their picks and also often rip on one another. I am very uninterested in that type of crap and instead and more interested in trying to make some money.

I feel baseball can be very profitable due to the value in underdogs. To be able to grab a very solid pitcher at +120 or +130 or even sometimes +150 odds is very tempting. I do not believe or understand how so many people who post picks take HUGE favorites in baseball. It has been my experience that is is almost impossible to win over the long haul consistently betting favorites.

To break even betting an average of -150 favorites in baseball, you need to nail 60%... just to break even. I think it is worth a cappers time to focus on statistics that might favor underdogs. I have been looking for two or three other cappers to work with this year where we could combine systems, chat each morning, and try and come up with consensus picks..... plus eliminate picks that may not be so good upon closer evaluation.

The other area where I have had success in the past is riding a hot team in over/under baseball bets. Four years ago, they Dodgers has a great staff but could not score a run to save their lives. They were UNDER on over 60% of the games for the year and on Sundays, they were something like 20-4-2 on UNDERS... there was just this crazy statistical UNDER run. I ended up almost exclusively better Dodger game UNDERS that year.

This year I am on their OVERS. They have an incredibly suspect pitching staff with the exception of Billingsly. No way Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw pitch this well for the year. This is a team that will give up plenty of runs. Their offense in my opinion is as good as ANY not just in the National League, but in baseball. You obviously have Manny, but then have three great young bats in Ethier, Loney, and Kemp. Hudson looks like his wrist is fine, Furcal is solid, and Martin has not even begun to hit yet. If his bat gets going, which it will, and Loney begins stroking for even a little power, you have a monster offense. Casey Blake as your 8 hitter? He is gonna hit 23-27 home runs from your 8 spot. In the National League, the Books can only go so high with the run line. Take away that first series in San Diego when Manny was just getting his reps in (they went UNDER four games early on), and the Dodgers OVER is pretty solid statistically. I look for this to continue.

Anyway, if anyone is interested in working more with me, please let me know. I spend MANY hours each day crunching statistics and have some more opinions on betting baseball and WINNING.

Good luck to everyone.

Johnny Bones