jordyn31's Blog

Surprise the Gators are back , analysis+ picks

By jordyn31 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 06:18 AM   10 comments

If you told me 9 months ago that the Gators would be 4-0, and hosting Bama as only a 4 point dog, I would of said, NO WAY.

After experiencing AD Jeremy Foley hiring Ron Zook, to replace Steve Spurrier, I was shocked when he hired another assistant coach, in Will Muschamp, to replace Urban Meyer.!  Well the first thing that surprised me was the hiring of Charley Weis, as OC. Then he named an old friend Dan Quinn as DC.

Weis who can do magic with QB's ( Tom Brady) has turned John Brantley around, and with his play calling the Gators are averaging over 40 a game ! The defense under Quinn and Muschamp's watchful eyes are holding teams to 9 points a game ! Brantley is no super star , but Weis is getting great production out of speedsters Rainey and Demps to average 259 yards rushing per game.

If you look at stats the Gators and bama have almost the same numbers in almost every category ! Bama scores 38.5 and allows 8 and the gators score 40 and allow 9. Bama rushes for 251 and allows 46, the gators rush for 259 and allow 57, and the QB's are rated about the same.

Bama has a tougher schedule and deserves to be a 4-5 point favorite, even with the game in The Swamp. . As a Gator fan I will just watch this game !

Official lines come out soon, but I have strong leans on USF -1 1/2 or 2 at Pitt and Baylor -4 going to Kansas St, a place where they don't fare well, but I love the numbers Griffin is putting up. I also see some good value in Utah St getting about 8 1/2 at BYU

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gatorbear says:
09/26/11 07:14AM
Jordy,

I like the Gator write up. I to am a Gator fan & live 45 minutes south of Gville. May be going to the game. Muschamp & his coaches have done an outstanding job thus far. This will be a great test with the Tide coming in. Love South Florida on Thursday as well. GL this upcoming week.


jordyn31 says:
09/26/11 09:21AM

I believe Weis is living in Ocala. I usually stay there when i go to a gator game . Hope Weis can come up with some new wrinkles to keep them off balance

You are correct, this will be a big test and next week at LSU is also huge.

I would be happy with a split

jordyn31 says:
09/26/11 09:37AM

USF  - 2 1/2      2 units

Baylor  -3 ( bought 1 pt)     2 units

jordyn31 says:
09/26/11 09:39AM
Utah st +8
Tappy says:
09/26/11 02:04PM
This is going to be an amazing game... On paper everything appears to be the same for both teams. I think this spread is about where it should be, especially with the home field advantage going to Florida. 

Alabama offense vs Florida defense... I give the edge to Alabama, partly because of the defensive mistakes I saw Florida make against a Tennessee offense with their star receiver out of the game. Aka, their pass defense is a bit weak. I don't know how well we will run the ball against Florida... Their run D seems to be pretty amazing right now, however they are all very young, and our Oline is deep, and experienced. We all know how well the combo of Richardson/Lacy is doing also...

Florida offense vs Alabama defense... We showed that we can shut down one of the top passing games in the nation, with probably the best combination of 4 receivers in the nation this past week. The major problem Arkansas had though, was they couldn't run the ball on us. So far no team has, but we haven't played a team who has two RB's like Florida has. They are unbelievably fast, and are a nightmare for defenses. Our run D is the 3rd best in the nation right now, so we will see how those two match up. IF Florida can mix up the run, and pass, it is going to be a long game coming close to the spread. 
jordyn31 says:
09/26/11 04:39PM

Temple -7  last week Addazio started chester stewart at QB and against a good maryland team he went 9-9 and temple jumped all over the terps. They had a 31-0 lead and they played at maryland !!

Toledo has played a tough schedule but the Owls are only giving up 8 points a game and if Stewart started against Penn st, they might be undefeated

jordyn31 says:
09/26/11 05:58PM

The more I read the blogs on this game I feel the wildcard to a gator upset, will be Charlie Weis

If Charlie can come up with a few new wrinkles and catch bama by surprise the gators may have a chance, I think it will be hard if they get behind early

An under used WR is #82 O Hines, who was injured at the start of the season.they need someone besides Rainey and demps to step it up in the receiving department

This game will really test Brantley, if bama shuts down the run, it could really be a long night

 

 

jordyn31 says:
09/27/11 04:30AM

Added a teaser, I don't have faith in Ron Zook, but I like illinois, so last night I teased Redskins + 10 (WON over Cowboys) and the back half is Illinois +1/2 over Nwestern (didn't trust him with giving 7)

Go Zookers

Last night was like watching paint dry, 9 FG 1 TD. I thought my Philly Eagles sucked in the red zone !

They should shoot OC's that keep trying to pound it in from the 3 yard line. When you have a QB like Mike Vick, and you don't roll him out , inside the 4 yard line or 4th and 1 you should get into a different field

Pateman007 says:
09/27/11 03:03PM
Very nice write up Tappy. Can't help but like Bama with all the pressure they put on the QB with just the 4 down linemen. Brantley has had no pressure put on him to this point and unless things have dramatically change from last year he will feel some serious heat. Would like to see this come down to the wire from a fans perspective but I think IF Bama goes up by two scores in the second half they could win this going away.

Like Bama -4

Other likes are LSU-30 (this will be ugly early and often) and Stanford-21.5 (UCLA is terrible)

Best of luck to everyone!

mydogmoe says:
09/28/11 11:55AM
Stats don't mean anything when you've played Fla Atlantic, UAB, Tenn, and Ky. Bama has shut down Penn St. on the road and creamed a very good Arkansas team. They almost killed their QB and he had to leave the game. Richardson and Lacy wear down the D line. They have to put 8 in the box then Maize and Hanks will burn them down field. Close game for about a half, then all hell breaks loose and Bama wins buy 10 or more. 4 points isn't enough for me....
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