jv040's Blog

baseballs departing dogs

By jv040 | View all Posts
Posted Friday, April 15, 2011 07:29 PM

36 comments

This week's baseball system pertains to underdogs in the final game of a series. As we've mentioned before with several other systems, we try to find underdogs off a win for two reasons. The first, is that the team has a bit of confidence after a victory and the second is that many people believe the favorite will bounce back, which helps give us better odds.

What we're looking for in this system is an underdog that won the previous game as an underdog, while allowing six hits or less, and the game being played is the final game in the series.

The six-hit rule means the the favored team isn't swinging a hot bat and teams do tend to run in streaks.

The results for this system are as follows:
2008: 59-65 +$995
2009: 69-74 +$1,225
2010: 66-72 +$1573
2011: 6-5 +$203

It's odd that the system actually showed a decent year in 2009, which is when favorites covered at higher than normal rate, and it has been pretty consistent over the years. Not bad for such an easy method.

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jv040 says:

04/15/11 07:32PM

I will post plays starting tommorrow hypothetical bankroll will be based on 100$ bets.

jv040 says:

04/16/11 07:05AM

no plays today, this system was posted by Allen Moody

jv040 says:

04/17/11 07:49AM

april 17th bankroll $2000

chc 112 bet $100

wizzy69 says:

04/17/11 07:53AM

will be following to see how it does gl to ya and ty for posting

wizzy69 says:

04/17/11 07:57AM

is this a multiple play a day system where you have to post thru out the day?

jv040 says:

04/17/11 10:02AM

no I don't think it is. the only other team that might qualify by game time is laa but I dought they will right now there favored.

I only put chc down as an official play

wizzy69 says:

04/17/11 10:04AM

i will make cubs a small play until i see how this system works out.

jv040 says:

04/18/11 12:31PM

apr 18 plays

chc lost

plays are 0-1

Bankroll 1900

todays play

pit 155 bet $100

observer55 says:

04/18/11 10:45PM

jv040, First I would like to say that I've noticed that you do some excellent work on this site. You follow the rules and actually post systems and strategies while explaining the systems, rather than just posting worthless picks like 99% of the people here. You are a very generous person. But, I believe your two plays posted most recently are in error, according to your system rules. Both of your "departing dogs" allowed more than 6 hits in their win. Colorado had 8 hits against the Cubs on Saturday, and Cincinnati had 15 hits against Pittsburgh on Sunday. I really enjoy your posts. Best of luck to you.

michael550 says:

04/19/11 06:27AM

i believe she posted in another thread that she decided to throw out the filter of the dog needing to allow less than 6 hits. otherwise ill be really pissed off that i just lost $2000 on these 2 system plays that werent actually supposed to be system plays at all. i mean what the hell is going on here.

jv040 says:

04/19/11 07:03AM

I took the 6 hit rule to mean that the home team scored 6 or less if i'm wrong I will change it. . maybe I miss understood. I'm going to backtest this today. now that I understand what that 6 hits means the total between the 2 teams. it makes more sense. thankyou 4 bringing this up.

jv040 says:

04/19/11 08:47AM

after going over 2011 results in covers I believe that my first interpratation was the right one. That if the home team scores 6 runs or less then its a play. I'm going to post that way. this system is on about.com posted by allen moody. If the total score was less than six there would have only been 4 games this year and when I got this in e-mail allen said the plays were 6-5 in 2011.

jv040 says:

04/19/11 08:51AM

Apr 19 No plays today

pit won

current bankroll 2055

jv040 says:

04/19/11 11:58AM

as my first post states the six hit rule refers to the favorite team. that would be the home team has to score 6 or less.

observer55 says:

04/19/11 12:19PM

jv040, Thanks for looking into the rules of the system. I sure don't want to tell you what rules to use, but I looked at Allen Moody's site myself. He clearly says he's looking for "an underdog that won the previous game as an underdog, while allowing six HITS or less". In other words, the underdog we want to bet on had to give up no more than six HITS in the previous game. No where does he say six RUNS. There will be very plays when the underdog's pitching staff is held to a standard of allowing only six hits, but it probably will be a good system since you are betting on a dog that probably has a good pitching staff.

jv040 says:

04/19/11 05:33PM

I don't want to give the wrong plays according to the rules thats stated above. it does say hits and not runs and I miss interpeted that. Do you know where I can find hit info from the games that were played the day before?

observer55 says:

04/19/11 06:13PM

jv040, I think you are doing the right thing by sticking to the rules as the system was written (a play is only a play if the favorite had no more than 6 HITS in their loss the previous day). There are all kinds of places to easily get the hit stats for any game. Right here on Covers for one. Just hold your cursor (pointer) over the little box near the top of page that says MLB. A little window will drop down, click on "scoreboard", you'll see all the scores from yesterday. Then click on "box score" on any of the match-ups. Also, there is a calendar that you can click on for any date for games played that day. ESPN/MLB also has the boxscores and stats.

Let me if you still have trouble finding any stats you need.

Keep up the good work.

dogunder says:

04/20/11 05:06AM

hows this going?

jv040 says:

04/20/11 09:14AM

I believe after tracking the 2011 season it's suppose to be 6 hits or less comming across the plate. this is how i'm going to post it.

jv040 says:

04/20/11 09:17AM

april 20th bankroll 2055

plays today

Laa 108 bet $100

sf 113 bet $100

observer55 says:

04/20/11 01:34PM

jv040, You seem to be having trouble defining HITS and RUNS. HITS do not come across the plate as you stated in Post #20, RUNS come across the plate. I'm sure if you e-mail Allen Moody he will tell you that the favorite, in their loss, had to allow no more than 6 HITS. Allowing 6 RUNS in a game is no feather in a team's cap. Allowing 6 RUNS is not a good performance by a team. Allowing 6 HITS indicates the underdog's pitching staff did a very good job last game. The two plays you have posted for today, only SF actually qualifies, as the Rockies only had 3 hits last night (they also had 3 runs). But, Texas had 9 HITS in their loss to the Angels.

I do wish you luck in using whatever rules you chose to use. I just think you should make it clear to followers that you if use 6 RUNS as the standard for a play, it is not the same system that Allen Moody uses.

I think you are probably one of the top three posters on this site.

observer55 says:

04/20/11 02:22PM

I need to make a quick grammar correction on my last post just to be clear.

I meant to say, I think you (jv040) should make it clear to followers that if you use 6 RUNS as the standard for a play, it is not the same system that Allen Moody uses.

jv040 says:

04/20/11 04:48PM

are you sure about that? I went back and looked at hits vs runs and theres always going to be more hits than runs. if you use 6 hits the way allen moody printed it out then there would not be any where near 11 plays for this season check it out for your self. I'm pretty sure that he meant comning across the plate just like in his other system he posted he used the words 3 hits or less but said it was coming across plate meaning runs.

observer55 says:

04/20/11 05:40PM

jv040, You should read both of Moody's articles on the two systems again, very carefully. In the "departing dog" system he says 6 HITS. In fact, he says 6 HITS twice in the article. He does not mean six runs. Allowing 6 RUNS would not have been a good game for the underdog. In the "low scoring dog" system, Moody clearly says 3 RUNS. Obviously in that system he's using RUNS because it's very unlikely the underdog would have won the game if they only had 3 HITS.

I understand that Allen Moody is a pretty nice guy and answers his e-mails. If you believe he did not print what he meant to print, then you should contact him. I have no doubt that the systems are printed exactly as he intended them to be. In the "departing dog" system 6 HITS is the qualifier, and in the "low scoring" dog system 3 RUNS is the qualifier.

observer55 says:

04/20/11 06:08PM

jv040, You mentioned that you found it hard to believe that the "departing dog" system could be 6-5 this season using the 6 HIT qualifier. I think it's entirely possible. Underdogs are absolutely cleaning up this month. I keep a personal count everyday. Any game priced -105 to -109, I count as a pick'em,and not tallied in the favorite/underdog count. So far this season, favorites-underdogs are 105-107. Underdogs have actually won more games than favorites. Those stats are thru last night's games (4/19/11).

So, as a side note, anyone claiming any great underdog handicapping, say maybe 43-44 on dog picks using some mystical computer program, is total non-sense. All you had to do was play any underdog and you would have won right about 50%. Underdogs have been beating the crap out of favorites this month.

jv040 says:

04/20/11 06:37PM

my first post was on april 15th since then there were only 9 plays that qualified if we use hits and not runs. there is 11 total plays as of today that qualified under the hits . if we use hits the day I posted on april 15t hit would be 6 wins and 3 losses today would be 6 wins and 5 losses if hits were used. the teams that held the home teams to six hits or less are.

sd apr 2 loss

bal apr 2 won

mn apr 4 loss

kc apr 9 won

oak apr 9 won

cle apr 9 won

phi apr 9 won

fla apr 13 won

fla apr 15 loss

mn apr 18 loss

mil apr 19 loss

all these teams qualifyed if we go by 6 hit rule on dates stated the win and losses are what happend the next time they played. if I missed any dates let me know you said you keep a data base. just wondering if we should post with just 6 hits or less or maybe post with 6 hits and 6 runs seperatly to see how they compare?

observer55 says:

04/20/11 07:20PM

jv040, Like I said in earlier post, you do very good work! It's always been enjoyable reading your posts.

It's also nice to see that you came up with the same 6-5 record that Allen Moody has stated for the system's record this year. That should serve as further evidence that Moody did, in fact, mean 6 HITS.

I do not believe you should even bother charting the system using 6 RUNS. If a team, in this case a winning underdog, gives up 6 RUNS, they may have won, but they did NOT play a good game. Moody wants to go against a favorite that did not swing the bat very well last night.

In your post above, as you explain the record, I think you may be saying runs when you mean to say hits, or vice versa. It does get a little confusing, But wouldn't you agree that's it's best to use a system EXACTLY as the author has written it?

No system wins all the time, especially on a small sample of games. I believe the Giants were a system loser this afternoon, bringing the system to 6-6 this season.

The best systems will have very few plays. None of this is easy.

jv040 says:

04/20/11 08:10PM

I agree with you now that I know what the difference is I will be using only hits.

I'm going to start bankroll over 2 and make all plays 6 hits and less. thanks for letting me know I was posting wrong.

jv040 says:

04/20/11 08:14PM

apr 20th official plays this season 6-6

starting bankroll 2000

observer55 says:

04/20/11 09:09PM

jv040, Now that we're in agreement that 6 HITS is the qualifier for the "departing underdog" system, we should also be clear that on the other system that you are tracking, "low scoring underdog winners", 3 RUNS is the qualifier.

I actually think the "low scoring underdog winner" is the better system of the two. It seems more logical to me. I'm not crazy about the "departing" aspect of the first system. I don't see how it makes a whole lot of difference the fact that it's the final game of a series. But, Allen Moody showed the system has performed well in the past, so let's see what happens.

Thanks for all the work and research that you have done for a long time. I have read your posts since you started. This site would really be great if more people were like you, and not people just posting picks that are not fully and completely explained.

One last note, I hope, for your sake, you are no longer pursuing any type of "chase" systems. There are no LONGTERM profits to be made going that route.

observer55 says:

04/20/11 11:49PM

jv040, Let's see if we both agree that on Thursday (an early game) Arizona +114 is a play on BOTH systems, they allowed 6 HITS or less, are departing Cincinnati after the game, and they won as an underdog while scoring 3 RUNS or less. Strictly system plays, not a sure winner, as the Reds have now lost 5 out of the last 6 at HOME against champions like Pittsburgh and Arizona. We're asking Cincinnati to lose again.

Baseball is very tough to beat. Don't bet big unless you're rich or psychic.

jv040 says:

04/21/11 09:40AM

yes I agree arizona is a play today

jv040 says:

04/21/11 09:42AM

april 21

bankroll 2000

ari 119 bet 100

jv040 says:

04/23/11 07:28AM

april 23 games 0-1

bankroll 1900

TVWIN says:

04/23/11 12:32PM

ChicagoCover says:

04/28/11 12:01AM

Whats going on here

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