kaplan's Blog

Posted Sunday, August 16, 2009 11:13 AM

Week 1 Plays

Time to get started. As some of you know, I base all my plays off of "math models" and it is definately a work in progress.I don't have any expectation for it, and only post it on here to gather opinions about how you guys think it will do. My system is designed for later in the season (weeks 7-15), but I've decided to try it on early season games, specifically weeks 1-3, by calculating what the odds for the 2 teams would be if they played after the last regular season game lastyear, and then use that number with what we know and assume about said teams coming into this year to adjust the line. I'm currently operating with a 500-800 game data set depending on which of my three formula's is being used. I am betting 3%(per game) of bankroll until week 7. At that point I will up it to 6-8% depending on how I'm doing.   I'm not really trying to influence anybody here, but do appreciate any thoughts you guys want to throw out.   La. Tech AT AUBURN (-13)     This one seems short to me. Auburn was horrible lastyear as everybody knows. They were an ugly 1-5 as a favorite and 2-9 overall vs the spread. That is where I see value in this game. I've been telling my buddies for months we were gonna get a short line on this game.  I hate betting on a team with a new staff, but I can't pass this up. La Tech managed to beat Miss.St at home lastyear depite being outgained by 79 yds. The following week they went to kansas and were outgained b... [More]

Posted Saturday, May 30, 2009 10:49 AM

Early Week 1 Lines

Here are some early lines that my computer program has calculated for week 1. To get my initial number I capped each game as if they were gonna play after all regular season games lastyear. I then made my projections for this year entered the totals into my system to get the number for this year.
 
This is still a pretty new system, but I am starting to get a big enough sample to get fairly good starting numbers.
 
The first line will assume these two teams would have played week 15 lastyear. For instance, the (-2.73) is the number the computer would have given me had Nevada played at ND week 15 lastyear. I'm not claiming this is accurate at all, but would appreciate feedback from all you guys. Here goes.
 
WEEK 1.
 
Nevada AT Notre Dame: 2008 ND (-2.73)......2009 ND (-8.54)
 
Toledo AT Purdue: 2008 Pdu (-17.19).....2009 Pdu (-12.02)
 
 


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