kaplan's Blog

Early Week 1 Lines

By kaplan | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, May 30, 2009 10:49 AM   49 comments
Here are some early lines that my computer program has calculated for week 1. To get my initial number I capped each game as if they were gonna play after all regular season games lastyear. I then made my projections for this year entered the totals into my system to get the number for this year.
 
This is still a pretty new system, but I am starting to get a big enough sample to get fairly good starting numbers.
 
The first line will assume these two teams would have played week 15 lastyear. For instance, the (-2.73) is the number the computer would have given me had Nevada played at ND week 15 lastyear. I'm not claiming this is accurate at all, but would appreciate feedback from all you guys. Here goes.
 
WEEK 1.
 
Nevada AT Notre Dame: 2008 ND (-2.73)......2009 ND (-8.54)
 
Toledo AT Purdue: 2008 Pdu (-17.19).....2009 Pdu (-12.02)
 
 
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centerpiece says:
05/30/09 10:49AM
I like Nevada to hang with the Irish.

Purdue/Toledo is hard to say. Purdue could be on the way to permenant seat in the Big 10 basement.

Okie State looks like a clear fave vs Georgia, but something doesn't seem right with that.

 

Oregon will beat Boise.

 

Cuse should get nothing under 10 from Minny.

kaplan says:
05/30/09 12:12PM

 

I agree, that Georgia game is interesting. I try to eliminate emotion, and just bet the math, but it does mess with your mind at times.

kaplan says:
05/30/09 12:24PM

I don't view line moves as unfortunate at all. That's what I'm trying to exploit.My goal is to predict the most likely final score, not the line. As far as stats, I use 27 different stats(9 per data set). with 1-aa results removed. My system uses a variation of Rush Yards Per Game and Pass Efficiency Defense as the two most important stats. I also rely heavily on a Points per game formula I wrote. The main math concept is logistical regression.

 

This is a work in progress. As my sample gets bigger, it gets more accurate. I am interested to see how this year plays out, because a large majority of my sample games were before the new clock rules. I didn't see a big difference in final scores from lastyear, but one year is not close to being a believable sample.

bracks says:
05/30/09 12:39PM

I think thats a steal for NCST @ Home if its only 1.5 I would think maybe closer to 3.

Such a big game, I am just waiting to see the Ore line. I am already leaning Quacks, and +4.5 would make e jump in for sure.

Cuse- I have said already in double thread, this team might not win a lot more games than last yr, but I think this will be a great ATS team. I expect them to be home dogs and cover a lot this yr. I am hoping for 7.5, and think that should be around the line.
kaplan says:
05/30/09 02:14PM
Colorado State AT Colorado:2008 Colorado (+1.29)

                                         2009 Colorado (-4.08)

 

Ol' Miss AT Memphis: 2008 Memphis (+13.32)

                                 2009 Memphis (+15.59)

kaplan says:
05/30/09 05:40PM
Western Michigan AT Michigan:    2008 Michigan (+.78)

                                                  2009 Michigan (-2.04)

 

 

Bracks-

centerpiece says:
05/30/09 07:20PM
I think your Colorado line is pretty close. I'd consider the Buffs to have some value at -3.

 

Memphis is hard to figure. Nutt has a history of destroying lesser teams. I could see the oddsmakers putting that one at 21.

 

Michigan.......flip a coin. Keep'em coming.

zcoach99 says:
05/31/09 12:21PM
I would fade Michigan in that game, and probably take Ol Miss and Colorado. What do you have for Va Tech/Alabama?
kaplan says:
05/31/09 08:53PM

It would be hard to lay points with the Wolverines, although I think Rich Rod will have them moving in the right direction by mid season. I got nothing for Bama/Va Tech. All my data is from games with a home team, so I don't have a clue at this point. I haven't read up much on either team.

Cincinnati AT Rutgers:  2008 Rutgers (-5.88)..2009 Rut (-2.19)

Utah State AT Utah:     2008 Utah (-31.77)...2009 Utah (-27.53)

CMU AT Arizona: 2008 Arizona (-21.69)..2009 Arizona (-15.55)

I feel pretty good with the Rut/Cincy line, but the other two not as much.

 

                  

kaplan says:
06/01/09 06:43PM
FAU AT Nebraska: 2008 Nebraska (-19.16)

                             2009 Nebraska (-26.55)

 

FAU scored 13 points in three games vs BCS Conference teams lastyear.

bracks says:
06/01/09 07:09PM
RU -2.5 or 3 is what I think the game is. I agree, think its dead on with that one
kaplan says:
06/01/09 07:46PM

 

Bracks,  This is a hard game to cap. Looking at Cincy's defense, you'd think it would be easy to take Rutgers laying as many as 6, but then considering the loss of Teel, and the 2 stud WR's.......not so sure.  What do you have on the Rutgers QB situation? If I felt they were solid at QB, I'd really consider laying the number.

nostradamus12 says:
06/02/09 07:14AM
most look pretty close, Michigan probably laying close to TD just for being Michigan although 2 is probably closer to reality
winonsaturday says:
06/02/09 09:34AM
Kaplan, Like the work. Check your PM's.
kaplan says:
06/02/09 12:50PM

I agree. Will be around 7. Wish I could get 10 though.

kaplan says:
06/02/09 12:55PM
La. Tech AT Auburn: 2008 Auburn (-9.22)

                               2009 Auburn (-14.28)

 

It looks like a huge jump for Auburn.........sort of. I see them being very good against less than stellar competition. Malhzan's Tulsa offense's were sick, and he should be able to put up some points against La. Tech. On the other side, I don't really think La Tech is gonna run on Auburn's defense, and they can't throw against WAC defenses. Blowout???

lemonsky says:
06/02/09 01:28PM


But wasn't Tony Franklin supposed to be an offensive genius who was going to open up AU's offense, too?

Maybe Malzahn will be the real deal, but for game 1, I'd have to lean towards LT getting 2 touchdowns. I'll have to read up on what LT is returning in terms of D, but from what I recall, that was by far their strength last year.
bookieassassin says:
06/02/09 02:33PM


That game might be good one to pass on.....until we see what Gus can do with offense......La Tech tough vs run      terrible pass D..... LT  Offense might be able to run (some)......can't throw at all  > auburn D returns 8 starters ....should be strong
kaplan says:
06/02/09 03:35PM

 

Good points. malzhan may not be the answer. That being said, I think we could see a shutout by the Auburn defense. The big question becomes "Can they score enough to cover 14?"

 

kaplan says:
06/02/09 03:42PM

Thanks. E-mail sent.

kaplan says:
06/02/09 03:46PM
La. Tech 1-11 ATS (last 5 years) as road dog vs BCS conference opponents.

 

 

bracks says:
06/03/09 06:49PM
Originally Posted by kaplan]

 Bracks,  This is a hard game to cap. Looking at Cincy's defense, you'd think it would be easy to take Rutgers laying as many as 6, but then considering the loss of Teel, and the 2 stud WR's.......not so sure.  What do you have on the Rutgers QB situation? If I felt they were solid at QB, I'd really consider laying the number.


I understand the worry there, and it is warranted. After the Spring game it def looks like its Natale to lose. DC Jefferson just doesn't look like he is comfortable back there yet. Then obviously, you have the biggest QB recruit to come to RU, Savage. I do not think he will be playing this yr. I hope he is red shirted and is fighting DC for the job next yr. I said in another thread that this team reminds me of the breakout yr team from a couple of yrs ago. Now, they don't have Rice and Leonard back there running, but the strength will be the running game (by group) going behind the best O line in the BE (IMO). They have at least 2 1st team BE guys and prob 3. Then the strength of the D will be like back then, with a great line who is bringing in 2 solid Run stopper frosh (Antwan Lowery and Issac Holmes) will help the LBs ( D'Imperio and Abreu) make plays. The DB's will be young again like back then, but Schiano has the things he needs to bring the heat again on D. They should own the line of scrimmage and be able to put enough pressure on the QB for the DB's to not have to cover for too long.


Sorry, that was a lot more than just the QB info, but that is the basis of my RU pick for BE Champs along w/ the help of the sched( all tough games @ H)


kaplan says:
06/03/09 06:52PM
Bracks-....here's to Jersey.

 

SDSU AT UCLA: 2008 UCLA (-13.05)

                         2009 UCLA (-14.51)

centerpiece says:
06/05/09 12:29PM
cuba says:
06/05/09 12:44PM
Hey Kaplan, great stuff, but do you look at over/under season wins. If you do could you post some, I am looking at Minn. and TCU.  Thanks
kaplan says:
06/05/09 03:57PM

Sorry Bro, I don't. Too much time wrapped up in this just trying to find a good line.

kaplan says:
06/05/09 04:01PM
Stanford AT Washington: Couldn't really get an accurate read on this game. Washington State's Points Per Game value came in so low that there isn't enough games to project a line from that particular stat.

 

Kentucky AT Miami (OH): 2008 Miami (+5.2)

                                      2009 Miami (+7.09)

PrimeTimeBoys says:
06/05/09 04:28PM
Hey Kaplan, how long have you been using your program & are you always tweaking it?  Wondering how well it did last year, thanks in advance!
kaplan says:
06/05/09 05:18PM
This will be the second year I've bet it. I am at a point where I think I'm done tweaking it. So after 3-4 years of trial and error, I feel real good about with what I've come up with. My real goal is to hammer weeks 9-15 as I feel this is late enough in the year to predict a score with the right combination of stats. I am also building a data set for weeks 7 and 8.

 

Obviously from this thread I feel it will be capable of setting good lines for the first week or two of the season using the previous years stats with adjustments factored in for the obvious changes in a team from year to year. I didn't do too welllastyear the first two weeks, but I think I've made the right tweaks now. We'll see.

 

I saw on another thread where you suggested factoring in the previous opponents stats. That is an absolute must. If you don't cross/test a team against the competition they've played, you are not finding a true value.

 

 As far as lastyear............week 1    2-4

                                      week  2   2-5 (?)

                                      week 7    3-1

                                      week 8    4-4

                                      week 9    4-4

                                      week 10  3-1

                                      week 11  4-1

                                      week 12  2-3

                                      week 13  6-1

                                      week 14  2-0

 

So from week 9-14 I went 21-10  (67.74%).....the crazy part is I spent hundreds of hours back testing it this year, and if I would have played every game the last three years where I showed a 1 point or more advantage against the spread(weeks 9-14) I would have hit 72%. Sounds like bullshit I know, but I'm gonna post a lean on every game this year weeks 9-14. We'll see if it was a fluke.

PrimeTimeBoys says:
06/05/09 05:51PM
Wow, thats amazing, are you saying your program usually falls on the Vegas opening line? If its that close, you've got something there buddy. Cant wait to see what games you come up with, I wanna compare them with the games I will be betting, very interesting stuff!
thorpe says:
06/12/09 04:45PM


I like Troy in this one.  Game is in Cleveland, right?  This is a cupcake for Troy compared to their usual road trips to Ohio St, Florida, LSU, etc.
thorpe says:
06/13/09 11:17AM


You're right. 
zcoach99 says:
06/14/09 09:28AM

 

I'd pound UCONN at that number. Steele has Ohio picked pretty high, but it's still a MAC/Big East match-up. This will probably open around ten. Home Dog with better QB......

zcoach99 says:
06/05/09 07:26PM
Kaplan, I've been a big fan of the other computer players on here. I followed Neuralman and the Legendary Randizzle to the bank. Hope your program works out for ya. I tried the computer approach for a while, and finally said "fuck it" I'll let the other guys do the work, and just tail.

 

Primetime, google Randizzle. He's a medical student who used to post here. Some claim he's an internet hoax, but the fucker can pick some winners. Don't matter what sport. He's posting on some other sites. Covers gave him the boot.

nostradamus12 says:
06/17/09 07:00AM
Rice might not drop as much as some think if they get good QB play and Fanuzzi (Alabama transfer) looked good in spring and on tape, tough to match Clements numbers though. UAB could step up if they learn to play defense.

 

Wisky number sounds a little on the low side, although not looked into those teams much yet, that 50 lb difference Badger OL vs NIU DL might be worth a look if number is under couple TDs

 

 

PrimeTimeBoys says:
06/05/09 07:49PM
Ive heard of that guy, he posted a "sick" record last year in college football, but what ever program he was using went belly-up in the bowl games.
PrimeTimeBoys says:
06/05/09 06:50PM
I respect all those cappers & everyone else willing to put the time & effort into handicapping college & pro football. As far as your system being off by 22 points on that game, thats just the nature of the beast, you win some & you lose some & at the end of the season, you hope to be on the positive side. Keep up the great work bro! 
kaplan says:
06/05/09 06:37PM
I'm not saying that my program falls on the number. I'm just saying that up to this point, it usually wins when it shows an advantage against the spread. In 07' it showed NW (-1) vs Iowa winning by 11 points. They lost by 11 points. That's a 22 point "error". It's still a new system, but it appears to be accurate. I don't want to come of like I think I'm gonna hit 70 or even 60 percent this year. I just want to throw this thing out there, and have some of the guys on here pick it apart, and maybe give me some more idea's.

 

If you want to compare your plays and lines with mine I'm perfectly cool with that. But, don't forget the veteran studs on this site Nostradamus, Gwarner, Bustinpiles, Biggiantkiller, Wahoo, and Badlands. Those guys can hit some winners, and have done it for years.

 

 

kaplan says:
06/07/09 10:56AM
Doubleup, I agree about the Gamecocks. The ol' ball coach doesn't have it anymore. It will definately be hard to back the Bruins early.
kaplan says:
06/11/09 08:23PM

Troy AT BGSU: 2008 BGSU (+1.54)

                           2009  BGSU (+6.47)

kaplan says:
06/16/09 08:05PM

Rice AT UAB: 2008 UAB (+9.74)   2009  UAB (+1.13)

 

kaplan says:
06/16/09 09:10PM
Northern Illinois AT Wisconsin 2008:   Wisky (-10.52)

                                             2009    Wisky (-13.1)           

kaplan says:
06/13/09 08:25AM

I don't think it's in Cleveland.

 

Doubleup, BGSU certainly looks weak.

kaplan says:
06/13/09 10:47AM
Uconn at Ohio: 2008 Ohio (+7.89).....2009 Ohio (+7.01)
kaplan says:
06/19/09 08:38AM
Nostra, Thanks for the feedback. CUSA is a wacky conference. I didn't bet any CUSA games after week1 lastyear. 2 hard capping teams that don't play defense.

 

I think the Wisky number looks low too, but that's what the math says.

 

 

A work in progress.....

DoubleUp4Life says:
06/12/09 06:03PM

I really Like Troy in this Spot

I Have Miami Ohio and Bowling Green in the Dumpster in the MAC

DoubleUp4Life says:
06/06/09 02:00PM

Really Like NC St. laying the Points ... Huge revenge game and I think the Cocks slip this year

DoubleUp4Life says:
06/06/09 02:07PM

Im guessing the Aztecs will be Catching 21+.... I agree with your #'s and most likely will be fading the Bruins early and often

smartbets says:
06/12/09 04:29PM
I really hope your right about this line.
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