kaponofor3's Blog

Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 08:10 AM

Let's talk next year's NBA season

Got my ass handed to me in the playoffs this year , ready to turn the page and look forward to next year.

Who will be the teams that you guys think will overperform their expectations? I anticipate that Minnesota will be much better next year presuming that they get a full year of Rubio, doubt we will get a win total for them under 20 like we did this year. Charlotte has to be better by definition and whoever they add in the draft won't hurt.

But to me, the team that will definitely be better next year is WASHINGTON. They add two solid players in Ariza and Okafor with shipping out Lewis' contract, will have a full year of Nene who I am very high on in terms of a post player, and Wall and Vesely should be better with another year of seasoning. Throw in a hopeful scoring wing like Beal and they will make some noise next year in the East I anticipate.

I am also going to be very high on TORONTO next year most likely, in large part due to the fact that they will be adding another talented player in the draft in addition to bringing over Valenciunas, who looks to be a real legit back to the basket center. He'll have a fantastic effect on Bargnani as he can now play the PF position as opposed to masquerading as a C.

What do you gentlemen think?

Posted Thursday, April 26, 2012 11:59 AM

Let's talk NBA playoffs and potential series lines/wagers

Assuming that the standings stay as they are, we are looking at the following first round match-ups:

Chicago v. Philly
Miami v. New York
Indiana v. Orlando
Boston v. Atlanta

San Antonio v. Utah OR Phoenix
Oklahoma City v. Dallas
Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis

Let's talk hypothetical series lines -- here's what I would put them at:

Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780)
Miami (-650) / New York (+580)
Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)
Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)

San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620)
Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)
Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)
Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)

How far off are my prices? Given the prices I am guessing above, who do you like? I think I would try to put a ton of money on Memphis if they are plus juice or even something like -150 or better. Do I have the favorites too high?

Posted Sunday, December 04, 2011 10:34 AM

Things I am excited for now that the season is going to start....

Let's just start a list:

1. Ricky Rubio
2. Kevin Love working the Brad Miller/Vlade Divac high post area
3. Blake Griffin
4. Kevin Durant v. Russell Westbrook, the sequel
5. The mighty beard of James Harden
6. Rooting against Miami all year
7. Getting to bet against teams on the 3rd game in 3 nights or 4th game in 5 nights
8. Dallas ball movement
9. Portland home games
10. The last stand of the Boston Celtics
11. Knicks fans thinking they can do some damage in the playoffs this year (won't happen unless they get a solid center, and no, Samuel Dalembert doesn't count).
12. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
13. A full season of Denver minus Melo
14. A healthy Chris Paul

What are you looking forward to this year?

Posted Monday, March 29, 2010 02:32 PM

Oregon to offer Izzo largest contract ever

According to Sporting News:

Oregon is planning to offer Michigan State coach Tom Izzo the largest contract in college basketball, according to Eugene, Ore., TV station KEZI.

A source within the Oregon athletic department has confirmed Izzo's name is on the list of coaching candidates provided by the search firm Spencer Stuart. But no offer has been made, nor have there been discussions between the parties, the TV station reports.

The proposed contract, backed by Oregon's biggest booster, Nike chairman Phil Knight, would surpass the game's largest current contract, given to Kentucky coach John Calipari (eight years, $31.65 million).

No way Izzo takes it, right? He's set for life at Michigan State I have to imagine.
... [More]

Posted Saturday, February 20, 2010 12:57 PM

NCAAB picks, Saturday, February 20, 2010

Huge card today, lots of potential plays. I had 12 leans on my first glance through this card, but I'm just gonna start off with the UCLA game.

My play today is UCLA +11.5. Bruins looked fantastic at Pullman and the injury suffered by Keefe has forced Howland to start giving more minutes to Honeycutt, Morgan, and Lane, which represents the youth movement I was praying for earlier in the year once things got out of hand. This team has improved week to week but it still inconsistent at times. That being said, UCLA played Washington close in Pauley but now they get to go to one of it not the hardest road arenas in the Pac-10 with Washington. Washington also coming off a SU loss would make most people think they are due for a bounce back against an underachieving UCLA squad. Normally, that's true, but we're talking about the Pac-10 here. Wacky things happen.

UCLA has been greater than a double digit dog just three times this year and they are 2-1 ATS, including covering against Kansas and winning straight up against Cal. With a big number like this you always have to worry about the backdoor cover late. As for Washington, they have been double digit favorites eleven times this year and are 2-10 in those games by my count. 

Reeves Nelson will play today after taking a nasty looking header off the floor coming down from a dunk in Pullman. He should be active and ready to bang inside with Washington's big bodies all game. Brendan Lane has shown glimpses of... [More]

Posted Wednesday, December 02, 2009 09:35 AM

NCAAB picks, Wednesday, December 2

YTD: 27-13-1, +22.94 units
Pac-10 YTD:  6-3, +0.62 units
UCLA YTD: 2-2, -4.72 units

Been real cold the last few days... Didn't like anything on yesterday's card so I took the day off.

Gonna lock a lot right now, it's by far my biggest card of the year:

1. Northern Iowa +6 (-114), 1.14 to win 1
2. Washington State +13 (-114), 1.14 to win 1
3. California +4 (-109), 1.09 to win 1
4. Duke -3.5 (-115), 2.3 to win 2
5. Portland -16 (-109), 2.18 to win 2
6. Sacramento State +10 (-109), 2.18 to win 2
7. San Diego -2.5 (-115), 4.6 to win 4

I really like USD in this spot coming off a blowout loss to Washington State. They have played much better competition than SDSU and came out victorious (Oklahoma, Stanford, Houston). Their only common opponent resulted in a loss for both to Pacific on the road, USD by 1 and SDSU by 8.

Really want to back Georgia Tech but I don't want free throws to ruin that one.

Examining deeper:

1. Pittsburgh -6
2. Clemson -4
3. Michigan -6

Best of luck everyone. My shock about the Gordon transfer has worn off and now I think it's probably a good thing given that he may have been a locker room problem and can't handle Howland's coaching.

... [More]

Posted Saturday, October 24, 2009 12:37 PM

Week 8 CFB card, 7-1 last week

Hello my fellow Covers brothers, getting up a little late on this Saturday. Went 7-1 last week, definitely do not expect to replicate that record this week. I'll take any positive day please! On to the Week 8 card:

1. SMU +16 (-102), 1.02 to win 1
2. Oregon -9.5 (-103), 1.03 to win 1
3. Kansas +7.5 (-101), 1.01 to win 1

Plays of the week:

4. Arizona -7.5 (+103), 2 to win 2.06
5. California -35.5 (+100), 2 to win 2
6. Oregon State +21 (-105), 3.15 to win 3

Best of luck to everyone, I'll stick around for a while if anyone has questions. Really feel good about my Pac-10 plays today (which probably means I'm gonna go 0-4, LOL), especially the Arizona and Oregon State play. My UCLA Bruins have been terrible the last three games, and I don't see us keeping this thing within a touchdown against Arizona. Hate fading my own squad, but I love money more.

Posted Sunday, December 07, 2008 07:57 PM

UCLA/CSUN writeup

YTD on UCLA games: 2-0

OK, here we go for another UCLA game write-up as promised.

Here's how I breakdown this game: Bruins coming off of a tough loss (though an ATS win ) at Texas. That's the type of tough loss on the road that can do one of two things to a team: demoralize them or bring them even close together. I've watched Ben Howland lead this UCLA program since he got the job, and there's one thing that I can say confidently: When UCLA suffers a loss, they almost invariably come back big the next game, especially if that next game is against a cupcake.

UCLA's defense will definitely show up in this game. They played OK against everyone on Texas except AJ Abrams, and they have to be salivating to unleash their fury for that loss at a helpless Northridge team that is 0-5 in their last 5 games, all on the road. Want a good comparison to what UCLA should be able to do to CSUN? Northridge played Stanford at Stanford on November 18, and they lost by 18. UCLA > Stanford, as I think everyone will admit

Another reason to like UCLA here: The three leading scorers on CSUN's team are two forwards and their point guard. UCLA can neutralize the bigs (who they should have the athletic edge over them) with their well-timed double teams in the post, which they do like clockwork against bigs who might have trouble handling the ball. Collison is one of the best in the NCAA in putting on-ball pressure on an opposing point guard, which generally will cause off... [More]

Posted Sunday, November 16, 2008 07:46 PM

-=- KF3 11/16/08 picks -=-

Yesterday: 0-3, -5.5 units
YTD: 34-33-4, -0.3 units

Not a great day yesterday. It's all part of the game though. Small card today with the late games.

Locked in:

1. DENVER -9.5, risking 3.3 units to win 3 units
2. Detroit (ML) +110, risking 1 unit to win 1.1 units

Best of luck today everyone!


User: kaponofor3
Joined: November 2007
Location: California
Team: UCLA Bruins

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