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Let's talk NBA playoffs and potential series lines/wagers

By kaponofor3 | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, April 26, 2012 11:59 AM   17 comments
Assuming that the standings stay as they are, we are looking at the following first round match-ups:

Chicago v. Philly
Miami v. New York
Indiana v. Orlando
Boston v. Atlanta

San Antonio v. Utah OR Phoenix
Oklahoma City v. Dallas
Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis


Let's talk hypothetical series lines -- here's what I would put them at:

Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780)
Miami (-650) / New York (+580)
Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)
Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)

San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620)
Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)
Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)
Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)

How far off are my prices? Given the prices I am guessing above, who do you like? I think I would try to put a ton of money on Memphis if they are plus juice or even something like -150 or better. Do I have the favorites too high?
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nbafan88 says:
04/26/12 12:00PM


Memphis is a better overall team than the clippers imo

Better execution, better teamwork, better coaching,, better home court
nbafan88 says:
04/26/12 12:01PM



mikec says:
04/26/12 12:08PM
My guesses:
Chicago -2000 vs Philly
Miami -1200 vs NY
Indy -700 vs Orlando
Boston -140 vs Atlanta

SA -4000 vs Utah
OKC -600 vs Dallas
Lakers -400 vs Denver
Memphis -120 vs Clippers


Riceboi says:
04/26/12 12:25PM
I think Spurs should be like -1000+ no matter who they play, just a beastly team that is all in. Could be Duncan's last year, they will win for him.
kaponofor3 says:
04/26/12 12:29PM
OK this is probably heresy here, but am I the only one who could see Utah giving San Antonio some problems? I mean let's think back to last year with Memphis being a matchup nightmare for SAS. Why was that? Cause Memphis had BEASTS underneath and owned the paint.

What is Utah's clear strength? It's gotta be the four big bodies of Jefferson, Milsap, Favors, and Kanter. I understand that Manu was injured in last year's series, but this type of scenario has been biting at me for the last couple of days. Can San Antonio match the inside presence of Utah?
nbafan88 says:
04/26/12 12:57PM
utah will be lucky to win one game vs san antonio

the execution/coach discrepancy is beyond ridiculous
RodWoman says:
04/26/12 12:57PM
  Miami and bulls will be 20-1
RodWoman says:
04/26/12 01:03PM
  might as well be 50-1. What's the diff. Philly and Knicks have no chance.
P4P says:
04/26/12 01:17PM

Just don't see it. Utah's got 4 guys under 21 years old or something like that. Youngest team in the playoffs by a mile. The old men will teach them a few things

Sure, Jefferson and Milsap will have big games...Favors and Kanter are horrible.

Certainly no value betting on the Spurs to win the series at whatever steep price they'll be, but I think you're just flushing money down the toilet if you take Utah.

kaponofor3 says:
04/26/12 01:19PM
I'm not suggesting taking Utah in legitimate hopes they do another 1/8 upset, just wondering what the price would be that would make it worth taking Utah in hopes that they win one of the first two games and possibly hedging out at a later date.

I dunno, just thinking out loud here.
P4P says:
04/26/12 01:28PM

May as well wait until they're down 0-2 then for the maximum odds.

Maybe the crowd (and some home-cooked officiating) let's them win game 3.

P4P says:
04/26/12 01:30PM
(If you can't tell I'm pretty high on the Spurs...so possibly a little biased.)
forty9ersfan80 says:
04/26/12 10:11PM
okc lakers bulls and spurs are locks.

knicks will be worth a shot at big plus odds. also like clippers celtics and pacers

forty9ersfan80 says:
04/26/12 10:13PM
i think the bulls are gonna be the highest odds. prob like -1000
stuss says:
04/27/12 01:01AM
I got 200 on Lakers +675 to win the west and 550 on Miami to win the east.. how that sound ?
thorpe says:
04/27/12 02:49PM

5dimes lines are out

Chi -1350, even higher than I thought.
Miami -900, you were closer, but higher than we thought
Pacers -900, even higher than we thought
Celtics -200, as I thought, not quite as big a favorite

OKC -500, in between where we thought
Spurs -2150 - much bigger favorite than we thought
Lakers -240 - much smaller favorite than we thought
Grizz -210 - we both assumed Clips would be favorite
DickyR says:
04/27/12 03:19PM

I know what i am talking about -900 at 5dimes as i predicted.
Nbafan88 
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