kaponofor3's Blog

NCAAB picks, Wednesday, December 2

By kaponofor3 | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, December 02, 2009 09:35 AM

40 comments

YTD: 27-13-1, +22.94 units
Pac-10 YTD: 6-3, +0.62 units
UCLA YTD: 2-2, -4.72 units

Been real cold the last few days... Didn't like anything on yesterday's card so I took the day off.

Gonna lock a lot right now, it's by far my biggest card of the year:

1. Northern Iowa +6 (-114), 1.14 to win 1
2. Washington State +13 (-114), 1.14 to win 1
3. California +4 (-109), 1.09 to win 1
4. Duke -3.5 (-115), 2.3 to win 2
5. Portland -16 (-109), 2.18 to win 2
6. Sacramento State +10 (-109), 2.18 to win 2
7. San Diego -2.5 (-115), 4.6 to win 4

I really like USD in this spot coming off a blowout loss to Washington State. They have played much better competition than SDSU and came out victorious (Oklahoma, Stanford, Houston). Their only common opponent resulted in a loss for both to Pacific on the road, USD by 1 and SDSU by 8.

Really want to back Georgia Tech but I don't want free throws to ruin that one.

Examining deeper:

1. Pittsburgh -6
2. Clemson -4
3. Michigan -6

Best of luck everyone. My shock about the Gordon transfer has worn off and now I think it's probably a good thing given that he may have been a locker room problem and can't handle Howland's coaching.

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bense197969 says:

12/02/09 10:12AM

Good luck tonight Kapono, this is the most appetizing card of the young season. Almost reminds me of a Wednesday night during conference play!

HotRoute says:

12/02/09 10:25AM

gl Kap

jeepnjake says:

12/02/09 10:38AM

GL Kap.

BleedBlu says:

12/02/09 10:44AM

Best of Luck bud!! Lets bring home that bball money

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 11:14AM

Would like to see some line movements in my favor so perhaps I could shoot for a few middles, but we'll see how the day shakes itself out.

hoopsprof says:

12/02/09 11:36AM

what up kap....

taking a break from doing this damn lit review for some hoops!

Think I will play today:

Sac St +10

I like NM in this spot, the Pit is a very tough place to play, Cal has the flu running through the team according to covers, and Cal did not shoot the 3 well last game at home. Not sure the Cal can stop Hobson for NM, a very dynamic player for them. Might do a ML parlay with them and La Tech.

La Tech -5. I think this team is flying under the radar for the books, they beat a decent TCU team and covered as a road fav last week, and I think they can do it again. Great bigs down low.

Wash St +13. Hoping they have a decent fan base with them as Zaga is down the road from them. Think this team can keep it within the number here.

No play on SD...SDSU is so damn Jekyl and Hyde. You just never know which team will show up.

Good luck today buddy!

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 11:40AM

Thanks hoops, always appreciate your input!

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 11:54AM

I'm buying out of Portland, just too scared with the line movement. It will cost me about 0.25 units to do so, but I'll take the loss

New card:

1. Northern Iowa +6 (-114), 1.14 to win 1
2. Washington State +13 (-114), 1.14 to win 1
3. California +4 (-109), 1.09 to win 1
4. Duke -3.5 (-115), 2.3 to win 2
5. Sacramento State +10 (-109), 2.18 to win 2
6. San Diego -2.5 (-115), 4.6 to win 4

hoopsprof says:

12/02/09 11:58AM

Kap...As always, the feeling is mutual...I don't blame ya for buying out of Portland...

why such a big play on SD? Also, why do you like Cal in this spot?

hoopsprof says:

12/02/09 12:31PM

kap...

Just some friendly advice, I might hedge that SD play...4u is alot compared to your usual bet...I could see if SDSU was a scrub team, but they are capable of winning this game. Money management thoughts....wish I could follow my own advice lol

hoopsprof says:

12/02/09 12:31PM

volstud50 says:

12/02/09 12:34PM

I like Northern Iowa there...GL

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 12:35PM

prof -- yeah you might be right, especially considering I'm hearing that the line is dropping to 1.5?

Damn

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 12:37PM

Hedging some of the San Diego play:

1. Northern Iowa +6 (-114), 1.14 to win 1
2. Washington State +13 (-114), 1.14 to win 1
3. California +4 (-109), 1.09 to win 1
4. Duke -3.5 (-115), 2.3 to win 2
5. Sacramento State +10 (-109), 2.18 to win 2
6. San Diego -2.5, 2.1 to win 1.4

Bad spot in the USD game. I'm pretty nervous about the card for some reason -- I think I might have been carried away last night when I locked stuff in.

It's hard to determine when to lock things in cause the lines will move in your favor and when it's best to wait. I guess I have a lot to learn about predicting line movement -- oh well, that's why I come here and post.

UNC4LIFE says:

12/02/09 01:10PM

This San Diego line movement is rather odd im getting lines all over the place

12/02 13:09 +3 -152 / -3 +144

12/02 13:05 PK -110 / PK -110

12/02 13:06 -1 -110 / +1 -110

last one SDSU is even favored

mmac66 says:

12/02/09 01:18PM

GL tonight kapono.......with you on Wazzoo and Sac State.....may very well join you on USD later.

Dr_Hoops says:

12/02/09 01:22PM

Whats going on with the SD line movement?

LBCWeasie says:

12/02/09 01:26PM

kapono

very nice card sir...i had an awful day yesterday, as usual, too many games and DD favs caught up to me, keeping the plays to 3-4 today to gain back some momentum...as for Gtech/Siena, i will have a writeup here shortly so check me out, BOL

bigstork311 says:

12/02/09 01:32PM

I have San Diego in a pk now. Oh well lets hope they win for my sake. Yesterday hurt.

hoopsprof says:

12/02/09 05:25PM

I hate my book!

They took the Sac St game off the board, and wouldnt let me moneyline LaTech/NM, so I had to tease them and pay more juice! Wazzou dropped 3 points too!

NM pk/La Tech-1 1.3u to win 1
Wazzou +10.5 1.2u to win 1

poboy54236 says:

12/02/09 05:27PM

bol kap

TheUgly says:

12/02/09 05:31PM

Wazzzu at 9.5 now some places, still a good play

Like the card with you on many games

Grover15 says:

12/02/09 05:31PM

GL...

MysTicBiGz says:

12/02/09 05:31PM

gabs24 says:

12/02/09 05:32PM

BOL

BigLou318 says:

12/02/09 05:43PM

U did take Duke, I just saw that, so scratch second reason for hating them.

Dr_Hoops says:

12/02/09 06:39PM

Still playing San Diego? Its at +1.5.

shakey12381 says:

12/02/09 06:50PM

gl tonite kapono

TRAIN69 says:

12/02/09 06:52PM

gl tonight bro

I posted my total play if you wanna add that to your list of winners

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 10:23PM

1. Northern Iowa +6 (-114), 1.14 to win 1

2. Washington State +13 (-114), 1.14 to win 1
3. California +4 (-109), 1.09 to win 1
4. Duke -3.5 (-115), 2.3 to win 2
5. Sacramento State +10 (-109), 2.18 to win 2
6. San Diego -2.5, 2.1 to win 1.4

Cal right in this, Washington State looking great in the first half, need some work from the Blue Devils in the 2H, and Sac State is up 10-8 early.

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 10:28PM

USD with 6 points in 7:30 mins is killing me

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 10:37PM

USD with 7 points in 10 minutes...

USD only down 8?

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 10:40PM

Thanks Outlaw, hope to close strong. Really would like to see a USD win.

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 10:55PM

USD up 1 at half, Sac freaking State up EIGHT at half

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 11:04PM

PL -- sure looks like they have a better chance after the first half than I thought they did before the game.

djm -- thanks, hope USD and Sac State cover

kaponofor3 says:

12/02/09 11:04PM

Wow WSU falling apart, need to hope they hold on for the cover

kaponofor3 says:

12/03/09 09:08AM

1. Northern Iowa +6 (-114), 1.14 to win 1

2. Washington State +13 (-114), 1.14 to win 1

3. California +4 (-109), 1.09 to win 1

4. Duke -3.5 (-115), 2.3 to win 2

5. Sacramento State +10 (-109), 2.18 to win 2

6. San Diego -2.5, 2.1 to win 1.4

Today: 3-3, -1.49 units

YTD: 30-16-1, +21.45 units
Pac-10 YTD: 7-4, +0.53 units
UCLA YTD: 2-2, -4.72 units

hoopsprof says:

12/03/09 02:13AM

Hit my two tix today, damn my book for taking sac st off the board!

djm5477 says:

12/02/09 11:02PM

Nice picks kapono. Your thread is always informative. With you on san diego and sac st.

PublicLies says:

12/02/09 11:00PM

Think Sac State will win straight up?

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User:	kaponofor3
Joined:	November 2007
Location:	California
Team:	UCLA Bruins
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