kaponofor3's Blog

UCLA/CSUN writeup

By kaponofor3 | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, December 07, 2008 07:57 PM   34 comments
YTD on UCLA games: 2-0

OK, here we go for another UCLA game write-up as promised.

Here's how I breakdown this game: Bruins coming off of a tough loss (though an ATS win ) at Texas. That's the type of tough loss on the road that can do one of two things to a team: demoralize them or bring them even close together. I've watched Ben Howland lead this UCLA program since he got the job, and there's one thing that I can say confidently: When UCLA suffers a loss, they almost invariably come back big the next game, especially if that next game is against a cupcake.

UCLA's defense will definitely show up in this game. They played OK against everyone on Texas except AJ Abrams, and they have to be salivating to unleash their fury for that loss at a helpless Northridge team that is 0-5 in their last 5 games, all on the road. Want a good comparison to what UCLA should be able to do to CSUN? Northridge played Stanford at Stanford on November 18, and they lost by 18. UCLA > Stanford, as I think everyone will admit

Another reason to like UCLA here: The three leading scorers on CSUN's team are two forwards and their point guard. UCLA can neutralize the bigs (who they should have the athletic edge over them) with their well-timed double teams in the post, which they do like clockwork against bigs who might have trouble handling the ball. Collison is one of the best in the NCAA in putting on-ball pressure on an opposing point guard, which generally will cause offensives to have to initiate themselves higher from where they normally do, which means longer passes, and more time for the defense to react. The three leading CSUN scorers are numbers 1, 2, and 4 in total turnovers for their team.

CSUN hasn't seen UCLA type defense with elite athletes. I'm expecting a lot of easy UCLA points on CSUN turnovers.

UCLA -22, LARGE $$$$ play
34 comments
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bluejays99 says:
12/07/08 07:59PM

Love it... I'm thinking bout adding some on the first half spread as well. you agree?

bluejays99 says:
12/07/08 08:04PM
Locked in 2 units on -21.5 ... and 3 units on -11 FH.... Let's get back some of that money that GB sucked out of me earlier today
bluejays99 says:
12/07/08 08:22PM
Just emptied the small remains of my account. It's go big or go out in a blaze of glory. Hopefully UCLA (one of my favourite teams) doesn't come to screw us here... it will be bad for my relationship with the team.
darnbuckeyes says:
12/07/08 08:27PM
nice write up. like the play and need to hit big with the beating ive taken today! BOL
kaponofor3 says:
12/07/08 08:43PM


I know the feeling, and am going with a much larger than normal wager on this game -- largest of the season by far.

Can't wait for the game to start.
Ryeguy1 says:
12/07/08 08:46PM
How do you feel about 1st half -12 ?
usakangy says:
12/07/08 08:57PM
Kapo, I need this one too man!  GL to us all!!! 
usakangy says:
12/07/08 09:00PM
I got UCLA -21 for BIG cash!  I wanna hear CHA-CHING after this game is done!!! 
kaponofor3 says:
12/07/08 09:01PM
Last game v. Texas:

AJ Abrams: 9-18 FG, 50%
Rest of team: 15-37, 40% FG

If UCLA can hold a talented team like Texas (minus Abrams) to 40% shooting, I have to imagine they hold a CSUN team to under 35%
Ryeguy1 says:
12/07/08 09:01PM
alright, you twisted my arm
kaponofor3 says:
12/07/08 09:04PM
Kangy -- BIG BIG BIG cash game for me too. Like twice my largest wager of the season so far. I don't even want to say what it would be in units. Let's get it tonight!
kaponofor3 says:
12/07/08 09:08PM
Teams UCLA has played this season:

Texas, Florida International, Southern Illinois, Michigan, Miami (OH), Prairie View A&M

Best teams: Texas, Michigan
Good teams: Southern Illinois, Miami (OH)
Crappy teams: Florida International, Prairie View A&M

Florida International score? UCLA by 35
Prairie View A&M score? UCLA by 24.

UCLA is actually blowing out the opponents they should be this year (which is a little different, it seems, than the past couple of years).

Other factors favoring UCLA:
  • Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
  • Bruins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

  • Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

  • Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

  • Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.


Ryeguy1 says:
12/07/08 09:14PM
think a fist half play is worth a look? or just game straight up?
tmpeus78 says:
12/07/08 09:21PM
on UCLA for 3 units! Let's do this! 
logansrun says:
12/07/08 09:24PM
Bet Jam has:

 

1H -12

Game -21

kaponofor3 says:
12/07/08 09:25PM
Cal State Northridge:
  • Matadors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Matadors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Matadors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.
  • Matadors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
  • Matadors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Matadors are not exactly impressive on the road. Let's look at their game-by-game shooting percentages:

Cal-Lutheran (11/14/08): 42% FG, 16.7% from 3
@ Stanford (11/18/08): 62.5% FG (!), 37.5% from 3
@ Cal State Bakersfield (11/21/08): 35.5% FG, 26% from 3
@ New Mexico (11/24/08): 38% FG, 34.5% from 3
@ Rider (11/29/08): 39.7% FG, 23% from 3
@ Drexel (12/1/08): 34.5% FG, 41% from 3

You guys tell me -- do any of those teams have a better defense than UCLA? Not a chance.

How about CSUN's defense? Let's look at opponent's FG%:

Cal-Lutheran (11/14/08): 34.5% FG, 27.8% from 3

@ Stanford (11/18/08): 48.3% FG, 36.8% from 3

@ Cal State Bakersfield (11/21/08): 35.7% FG, 29.4% from 3

@ New Mexico (11/24/08): 46.3% FG, 34.6% from 3

@ Rider (11/29/08): 43.8% FG, 25% from 3

@ Drexel (12/1/08): 29.1% FG, 41% from 3


Surprisingly enough, CSUN's defense doesn't really look to be horrible. But the two teams they played that are relatively decent, Stanford and New Mexico, both shot about 45% from the field. UCLA should be able beat that easily.


kaponofor3 says:
12/07/08 09:34PM
To everyone asking about 1H plays -- I can see the thinking. I'd say 90% of the times these teams play, UCLA should be up by 15 at the half. It's a no play for me but I can understand the logic in it.

However, in general, I really prefer UCLA 2H plays as my "half" plays for UCLA games. Ben Howland is great for getting his teams ready to play, but they

often come out flat during the first half. I don't know why, but they

do. I like UCLA 2H plays when they finish the first half in a hole, so I don't know how applicable it will be to this game. But just for future reference this season -- UCLA 2H will generally be a positive expectation play, if for no other reason than I will take Ben Howland at half making adjustments versus almost any other coach in the game today.


logansrun says:
12/07/08 09:36PM
Thanks, Kap....
kaponofor3 says:
12/07/08 09:40PM
When UCLA plays crappy teams:

UCLA FG%:  58.5%
Opponent FG%:  38.5%

Nice 20% field goal percentage difference.

When CSUN plays decent teams:

CSUN FG%: 50.3%
Opponent FG%: 47.3%

That CSUN FG% is skewed because of a retarded 62.5% shooting night they had against Stanford at Maples Pavilion.


Cregen says:
12/07/08 09:42PM
I'm joining you guys on this one. Got it at -22
mikec says:
12/07/08 09:46PM
I guess I'll join the party. UCLA -21.5
Ryeguy1 says:
12/07/08 09:50PM
This line isn't moving... and public has got to massive on UCLA here... kinda scary
CarluchyH says:
12/07/08 09:53PM
...and me as well!!!

 

kaponofor3 says:
12/07/08 09:54PM
Ryeguy: That depends, what did the line open at? It may have already moved the 3-4 points one would expect if it were truly that heavy of a "public" play
BostonGeorge24 says:
12/07/08 10:01PM
Im in on this.

UCLA -12 first half
Destroya says:
12/07/08 10:08PM
Hey all, obviously by looking at my info im a newbie...but havin been playin a lil here n there lately...Im already on UCLA -21 with you all!

 

Im not a fan of parlays, but I hooked Oregon -2 in with UCLA -21 as well for a small wager. 

 

I went large only on UCLA -21. Lets hope its a fun night!! Cheers!!!

 

 and

Jedibud247 says:
12/07/08 10:12PM




tmpeus78 says:
12/07/08 10:19PM


guyhi says:
12/07/08 10:19PM
Gotta Join the Party i Guess thanks for all the Info Kapono!Good Luck Everyone!
Somobomb18 says:
12/07/08 10:35PM
Screw it, I am in
kingofthewin says:
12/07/08 10:36PM
the best info ive seen all day............
kaponofor3 says:
12/08/08 12:28AM
I'm an idiot. Apparently statistics don't mean shiat.

I'm through. I'm done. No more posting. No more wasting my money on this shit.
kaponofor3 says:
12/07/08 10:28PM
Hate seeing AF on the other side, but gotta trust my read. Even if they don't cover, I feel like I'm getting the best of it
tmpeus78 says:
12/07/08 10:32PM

we got this kapono
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User: kaponofor3
Joined: November 2007
Location: California
Team: UCLA Bruins
Occupation: Legal Services

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