I am relatively new to the Covers forums so bear with me if this has already been discussed in the past.
I just bet David Ferrer TO WIN AUSSIE OPEN at +5000 on my sports site. My $25 bet will pay $1,250 if he wins the tournament. However, at this price, I am not actually hoping he will do what seems to be the impossible and win the thing, I am just hoping he gets far enough to make a profitable hedge.
Lets dig deeper:
In 2012 Ferrer made the Quarters in AT LEAST every Slam. In addition, he made two Semis (French, US Open). In 2011 he made the Semi at Aussie Open and last year he made the Quarters.In 2012 season, Ferrer was 1-9 vs. Big 4, 10-0 vs. ATP #6 thru 10 (this tells us he beats the guys he 'should' beat).
Is it not tremendously profitable to bet Ferrer +5000 with the chance to hedge late in a tournament? I am going to place the bet, and leave it be for the first four rounds (hedging here by betting against him feels like throwing away some of my future potential profits. If he happens to crash out early, no big deal, $25 will be lost. If he at least makes the 4th Round, I can begin to hedge by betting his opponents. This seems to be a fool-proof way of either losing $25 or winning a substantial amount (compared to initial bet).