kbelhumeur's Blog

Ferrer +5000 Aussie Open Can I Lose?

By kbelhumeur | View all Posts
Posted Friday, January 04, 2013 05:18 PM

8 comments

I am relatively new to the Covers forums so bear with me if this has already been discussed in the past.

I just bet David Ferrer TO WIN AUSSIE OPEN at +5000 on my sports site. My $25 bet will pay $1,250 if he wins the tournament. However, at this price, I am not actually hoping he will do what seems to be the impossible and win the thing, I am just hoping he gets far enough to make a profitable hedge.

Lets dig deeper:

In 2012 Ferrer made the Quarters in AT LEAST every Slam. In addition, he made two Semis (French, US Open). In 2011 he made the Semi at Aussie Open and last year he made the Quarters.In 2012 season, Ferrer was 1-9 vs. Big 4, 10-0 vs. ATP #6 thru 10 (this tells us he beats the guys he 'should' beat).

Obvious Conclusion?:

Is it not tremendously profitable to bet Ferrer +5000 with the chance to hedge late in a tournament? I am going to place the bet, and leave it be for the first four rounds (hedging here by betting against him feels like throwing away some of my future potential profits. If he happens to crash out early, no big deal, $25 will be lost. If he at least makes the 4th Round, I can begin to hedge by betting his opponents. This seems to be a fool-proof way of either losing $25 or winning a substantial amount (compared to initial bet).

Input? Thoughts?

Report Abuse

8 comments

Post A Comment

Everest17 says:

01/04/13 05:20PM

I like it, worst case hedge.

kbelhumeur says:

01/04/13 05:33PM

Yeah, and say he were in the 4th round against an underdog opponent, betting 150-200 against Ferrer could really pay well..

tankstevens says:

01/04/13 06:40PM

don't see it man, but that's just IMO

kbelhumeur says:

01/04/13 07:27PM

Fair points Dustburgh but I highly highly doubt Djok/Murray/Fed would be -700 especially in a final. I would hedge bigger against Ferrer in quarters and semis where history tells us he is most likely to lose. Therefore I think i would have more than a legit shot to come out +400 or +500. I'm going to post on this threat how it goes for me. Stay tuned!

kbelhumeur says:

01/04/13 07:31PM

Another interesting thing I'd like to add Dustburgh is that after Nadal announced his withdrawel, Ferrer's odds went down (on my site) from +5000 to +2000! Now regardless of what anyone has to say about the hedging part, I certainly have value!

Everest17 says:

01/05/13 12:20AM

Something noteworthy is that we are not talking about Ferrer from the past so many years, we are talking about the Ferrer we saw emerge at the end of 2012. He clearly demonstrated that he can compete with the best, which is why he is amongst the best. Does his latest loss worry me? Possibly. It could mean he wants to focus on the big event, which is a positive in this situation.

examine says:

01/05/13 04:27AM

Thats not the worst case buddy!!

Worst case: he does not play

Best case: he makes to the quarters

examine says:

01/05/13 04:36AM

A lower rank player may make it deep....I am not saying its goin to happen, but Rafa being out is HUGE for the field...

A crazy 30-1+ player like roanic, monfils, bagdadis querry hewit may make it to the quarters and beyond

I did sprinkle some on huge dogs but I took the joker to win it all

Add your response:	You must be logged in to post a comment. Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.

Profile

User:	kbelhumeur
Joined:	January 2013
Location:	California
Team:	Los Angeles Dodgers
Occupation:	Recreation

kbelhumeur's Blog

Ferrer +5000 Aussie Open Can I Lose?

Profile

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories