ksuwins's Blog

Posted Saturday, August 28, 2010 01:49 AM

Week 1.....thank GOD, people. Let's go!

Took a bath in week 1 last season.  Not exactly keeping my powder dry, but treading a little more lightly this time around.
Will add more, but let's start with BSU vs V TEch.
I'm a BSU believer.  What a great story and great program.  Great coaching, great weapons, giant killer. But...not so fast- they're traveling a lllllllong way to play a very good team.  All eyes will be on Kellen Moore, while they should be on Tyrod Taylor.  I'm betting that this will be the Tyrod Taylor show, both passing and running.  Moore will likely get his, but I don't care.  I say it won't be enough in the end. Tyrod's got the running game behind him with two totally capable RBs, and as a result he'll connect with the only two returning WR's in the country to have 30 or more receptions with an average 20+ yards per in the country last season.  Beamer knows how to work this thing.  How many times have we seen this scenario?  BSU's team hasn't played in front of a crowd like this.  Huge numbers and riotous atmosphere, even if it's not Blacksburg. 
Concerns for the VTech defense?  Sure, the Hokie's defense is starting 7 new, but I don't care.  BSU is on the road, and I think this Hokie team is sick of hearing about BSU (91,000 people will let them know). Hokies in the dawg role is money here. 
VTech +3...I'll go with the ML when it's FINALLY posted at Bookmaker (fockers, hurry up). ... [More]

Posted Tuesday, April 27, 2010 02:13 AM

Did we ever get another update on forum member "The Rebel"?

Don't know if I have his monicker exactly right.  His cousin had posted several months ago with his login saying he'd been hit by a car and was in critical condition.  I never saw a follow up.

Posted Saturday, December 12, 2009 12:23 AM

UNLV/KSU

The game is being played on a "neutral" court because the rodeo is in town.  But the crowd will be full of season ticket holders and Reb backers.

I figured the line would be UNLV -6.  Hate to bet against my team, but I'm leaning that way.

The win blowout win over Xavier this week was nice, but don't overlook that it was a revenge game. Xavier embarrased the Cats in '07  103-77 and 4 players on the current Cats roster played and/or witnessed it.  It was the worst loss of Head Coach Frank Martin's young career, and player and head coach comments leading up to the game reflected it big time.  Nice angle and I took it for the win.

UNLV will be the best team KSU has faced yet.  Lon Kruger is the real deal, and he'll have his team focused on his alma mater KSU's team.  Young coach Frank Martin on the road (who is pretty good, by the way) vs one of the best in the business (possibly one of the best ever) coaching at home and on a roll.

When KSU wins, it's because of their "punch you in the face" defense, and they do it well.  The edge could be very well be negated @ UNLV who can play some brutal defense themselves.

Like I said, leanin' UNLV unless I get a compelling reason to leave it alone.  Might look at the Under as well.

GO CATS EMAW

 



Posted Tuesday, November 10, 2009 10:24 PM

KSU -1.5 vs MU

KSU -1.5

I'll be siding with the Cats and I'll keep my perfect record betting for/against the Cats this season intact.

I realize that MU has a good rush defense, but I'm pretty sure that if Baylor can torch MU's defense for 400+, Bill Snyder will have success through the air when necessary.  Grant Gregory is throwing for 60%, which is sufficient enough to score some points.

Bill Snyder is 14-3 vs MU and never lost to Pinkel.  MU beat KSU three of the first four times they played under Bill Snyder.  He never lost against them again.  How the hell will Pinkel win in Manhattan with his current crew?

Question - how many touchdowns has MU scored in the second half vs Big 12 competition?

Answer - zero.

The formula for MU will be simple: stop Daniel Thomas, the Big 12's best RB.  Thomas, by the way, never played RB til this season.  He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry and around 105 per game.  Other than that, MU has to hope that QB Grant Gregory (who was 20/31 for 215 yds and 65% in Norman vs OU) can't get anything done on the ground or through the air. 

Not as big a play as last week, but I'll be on it as Bill Snyder outclasses another overrated coach. 

... [More]

Posted Saturday, November 07, 2009 12:53 AM

Big 12 plays

Had I known Dr Bob was going to give me 2 more points on OU, I would have waited.  Oh well...I'm spitting in the face of Dr Bob's 4 star NU play.

OU -6

NU's offense is a mess.  How many points will they score?  They'll need to hit 17-20 to cover this line.  KSU gave OU's defense fits last week, and I believe that Stoops and staff emphasized better defense all week long heading into this "rivalry". 

Yes, NU defense is very good...I'm counting on OU's offense and Special Teams to care of business where that's concerned.   And I do not see NU's offense having much success tomorrow.  They're TO prone as hell.  And the coaching match up is a landslide in OU's favor

KSU +3 and ML

POW.  I'm undefeated betting for and against KSU this season in the following games: Ulala, UCLA, A&M, and CU. Too much momentum happening here, folks, and KU doesn't have the horses to overcome it. The train's rollin', albeit with a patchwork KSU team.

One the biggest reasons Bill Snyder came out of retirement is because he couldn't tolerate the KU losses.  He always emphasized this game and his record shows it, by the ton (13-4 straight up and ATS).  The coaching edge obviously goes to Snyder (though Mangino is an underrated coach, imo).  Mangino's conf road record is a serious liability considering the situation he'll face tomorrow.

KU's defense is sorely missing the... [More]

Posted Tuesday, October 27, 2009 08:54 PM

Week 9 - let's get 'em again

Good times last week:

http://spaces.covers.com/blog/ksuwins/NCAAF/10242009-Not-much-Stanford-talk.html

This week:

Arkansas -36.5 (BIG)

CU +4

NMSU +41.5 (jumped to g-damn soon, may take more at 44+)

Looking at:

USF +3

Tech -6.5

OSU +9

OU -26 (Haven't lost yet betting for/against my Cats).

 



Posted Saturday, October 24, 2009 02:13 AM

Not much Stanford talk

Stanford -6.5 is my fave on the board this week.

ASU brings their overrated rush defense into a nasty situation. Stanford is looking "up" at ASU in the PAC 10 standings.  Stanford needs a PAC 10 win.  ASU has no great RB, Stanford does, and the rushing game will get it done.  Conference stats are pretty close...but I'll take the home team that needs a conf win.  The Cardinal is on the way up, and I'm gonna hop on the ride.

 



Posted Thursday, October 01, 2009 11:00 AM

FAU +3.5 vs Wyoming

Adding this game to KSU/ISU: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100537315   Another game that won't get much attention or action:   @FAU +3.5

This Wyoming team that allowed lowly Weber State to pass for 322 yards didn’t beat UNLV last weekned because they're good.  They won because UNLV is still a team that can take a dump on the road (20 straight conference road losses!), and they’ve failed to cover numerous times @ Wyoming.  Chalk up a nice win for Wyoming, one of the few they will enjoy all season. 

 

Wyoming was out first-downed by CU 21-13 and out yarded 326-230…all while CU only rushed for 3.4 yards per carry.  But CU did run the ball 45 times (trying to groove the run game for WVU tonight and trying to avoid Cody interceptions?).  Had CU tossed it all day on Wyoming's shitty pass d, they may beaten them by 35.  Wyoming went 4 for 18 on 3rd down conversions on CU’s shitty defense.  CU is bad.  Wyoming is much worse.

 

FAU actually has a decent passing game, ranked 28th after facing NU, South Carolina, and ULM.  FAU passed for 234 vs NU.  Most of it in the second half, but looking at the drive chart, they did throw for some yards in the first half. 

[More]

Posted Saturday, September 26, 2009 02:25 AM

Adding V Tech +2.5

Disclaimer:  I've been horrid on Saturdays...stellar on Thursday's as evidenced by my writeup of the USC/Ole Miss game.  

V Tech +2.5

I thought it should be V Tech -2.5, but Phile Steele's Northcoast line is Miami -6, so what do I know?  I say special teams will come up big.  They ALWAYS do in these games, despite the QB/RB/Defense glory that's always handed out.  Anyway...here ya go:

-Has Miami really done that much by winning a 50/50 shootout vs FSU, then beating a one-dimensional G Tech team at home?  Positive start, but not exactly awe-inspirint.

-Jacory Harris has had his way so far.  Nobody can convince me that G Tech has a defense and secondary like V Tech's. Harris is going on the road in conference and it won't be nearly as easy.  Some of his long connections have been a bit lucky in my opinion (11 yds per completion, for cryin' out loud), and some of the bombs have been snap decisions by Harris where he just rifled the ball and hit.  He won't get away with that in Blacksburg. 

-Tyrod and V Tech haven't moved the ball that well.  So they'll have to do a lot of other things right, which I think they can (TO's, special teams, all-purpose yardage).

-Speaking of moving the ball, V Tech is way out in front in the ever-important rushing category at 198 yds per game (2nd in the ACC to G Tech) while Miami averages 137 (tied for 8th). 

-Miami has ... [More]

Posted Tuesday, September 22, 2009 12:44 PM

South Carolina +3

Mississippi/South Carolina

South Carolina +3 - I went with this one yesterday, and I think I've convinced myself to take the money line.

-First of all, why is Mississippi favored?  Phil Steele's predictions...catching Florida napping last season...beating a "down" LSU team...there is some hype in this line.

-Taking Spurrier as a home dog on a Thursday night is just good business.

-USC is coming off a road loss to UGA where they outyarded them 427-308 and out first-downed them 26-16. 

-Despite the light schedule, the Rebs have only 3 QB sacks (Yes, Nutt could be saving some defensive schemes for Garcia).  SC has 10 sacks against superior OL's (NC St and Georgia returned plenty of starts on the OL). SC stud Norwood could be in for yet another spectacular Thursday night.

-USC is looking up at #4 Mississippi- I love these situations, as do coaches and players ("they're #4 and playing in our house?  I don't think so...").

-Mississippi is a good team, but I think you have to be GREAT to beat SC in this situation. Maybe the Rebs are great.  I'll bet against it in this case.  I saw Memphis go toe-to-toe with these guys until Memphis ran out of gas and the Rebs killed them in the 4th qtr. Mississippi scored 21 pts in the final 6 minutes, and if I recall, two of those scores were set up by turnovers.  Memphis coughe... [More]

Posted Sunday, September 13, 2009 11:14 PM

Week 3

Bets placed this evening.  Will add more.
BSU -7 @ Fresno ST (bought a half)
@UNLV -7 vs Hawaii
@V Tech -3 vs NU (bought a half)
@UW +21 vs USC
 
Will look at many more.  Arkansas -1 is quite appealing.  I'll wait and see if I can get Even.


Posted Tuesday, September 08, 2009 01:02 PM

Week 2...fade-o-rama

Great card last week:
Illini
A&M  
Arizona 
Minnesota 
Wake 
Penn State
UNT
 
Had a few nice winners yesterday and last night, but they were parlays, so I'll omit them.
 
Week 2.  More chalk.  Somebody get me a straw
@UNT +3 vs Ohio
@WFU -2.5 vs Stanford 
@LSU -14 (bought 1/2) vs Vandy
Tulsa -17 @ UNM
@MU -17 vs Bowling Green
@Washington -20.5 vs Idaho
@Toledo +4 vs CU
 
Looking at:
@Louisiana +7 vs KSU
Two bad teams, but only one of them will be excited to play this game.  UL lost most of their fireworks from last season's good offense. But they'll still be better in the trenches than KSU which should be enough for the cover.  KSU with a road trip to UCLA on tap.
 
 


Posted Saturday, June 27, 2009 12:17 PM

Penn State nice odds for the NC

41.00?  5 dollar bet gets you $205.  Sounds like a good idea to me. For the title, I prefer Florida (obviously), OU, Texas, and VTech...but those are some pretty damn good odds for PSU.  I refuse to lock up any decent money only to wait til the end of the season to win or lose, but PSU ain't a bad prop bet for a few bucks.   How the hell are these teams getting worse odds ahead of PSU?   Miami 26.00 - whatever!?!?   Nebraska 36.00- c'mon.  Unproven coach...weak ass Big 12 North again.  In three seasons, Peline will be punked by Bill Snyder...again.   Clemson 36.00 - believe it when I see it.   Tennessee 34.00 - they will be good and maybe great...later.   North Carolina 31.00 - good again.  I'm a fan.   Alabama 21.00 - too tough a conference for them righ now- forget about it.   Forida State 19.00 - WTF???????  This is just stupid.   LSU 17.00 - not out of the question, I could at least see this one...but no.   OSU 9.00 - I won't count Terrell Pryor out of anything...total stud and ready to break out a can o' whoop ass.  I could see it.  But I won't do it.   Notice I left USC out? ... [More]

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