Been in this game a long time but decided to bring some more accountability to my picks and hopefully limit those extra plays that are just fun to ride but deplete the profits from real capping work done as I can't post those ... preparation and discipline is the only chance we all have against the book. I'm rolling strictly with what is on this thread each week. That doesn't mean some second half plays don't scream at us that we have to roll on! Anyway, thanks to the many cappers I have followed over the years on here ... hopefully I can give some back to the peeps. All my picks are either 1U or 2U. I generally throw a nickel per unit. And a herrrrreeee we go!
1. 1 Unit: BYU/Hawaii Over 50.5. Yeah, I watched the Boise game. But they aren't playing Boise, and the field isn't blue. BYU will have methodical drives with little resistance. They are fired up after two close losses against superior competition. BYU D is solid and Hawaii will get a couple of TDs and a FG or a few FGs and a TD ... chalk them for 16-17. Any more is gravy. BYU will get it going again and put up mid to high 30s. They are jacked up for redemption at home on national TV. Converting in the red zone is the key to this over, which has been an issue for the Cougs ... but they haven't been playing Hawaii. Cougs 38 Hawaii 17 final
2. 2 Units: WVU - 11.5 I had Baylor against LMonroe and that last little TD was a real BI. Baylor often comes out of the gate slowly (or like sloppy joe, TO central), but let's get real here. Both teams can light it up. WVU at home has as potent of an offense as any team ... Can Baylor keep up when WVUs D, while nothing to brag about, is superior to Baylor's subpar defenders? Baylor keeps up for a while, then this game gets out of their reach. WVU 51, Baylor 34
3. 2 Unit play: Texas -2.5. We don't know how good Texas is yet ... but in this case, don't mess with Texas. They will control this game on both sides of the ball and hold the lead for most of the game. I could see some nail biting with a 3-9 point lead late in the 4th and Ok St in a desperate drive to push to OT or back door cover, but hey, they usually don't come easy. I could see Texas winning by double digits without much trouble. Aside from that, as we will all see, Arizona is not good, and they clobbered Ok St. Longhorns 31, Ok St 21.
4. 1 Unit play: Mich St. -3. I am a big Oh st fan so this hurts, but they will lose this game. They are overrated and are going to lose a couple of games to inferior teams this year ... this has already almost happened at the Horseshoe, so what happens when they head to a hostile environment with a team that is playing better ball than they are? They play hard and put up a good effort, but they drop a game, and they drop it ATS. Spartans 27, OH St 21.
GL to ALL!! - Lawdog