lindetrain's Blog

My NCAAF early sleepers

By lindetrain | View all Posts
Posted Friday, June 12, 2009 11:16 AM   17 comments
These are teams I think could surprise...not necessarily win the NC, but compete for one unexpectedly.  You know, the 2008 Alabamas and Penn States of the world...
 
LSU - What a brutal schedule these guys have, playing @ UGA, Florida, @ Bama, and @ Ole Miss.  But, I like how things set up.  QB play is iffy, but the skill position players on offense are almost all back.  The D looks questionable, but they bring in one of the best DC's out there in Chavis, who did a great job at UT last year.  Remember the work Muschamp did with Texas last year?  Think of that.  I trust LSU to beat the Rebs, I think they can beat Georgia and/or Alabama on the road if they're playing well enough, and they have as good a shot as anyone to knock off Florida.  A dangerous sleeper IMO.
 
Illinois - This team probably wins the B10 and makes its way back to the BCS for the 2nd time in three years.  They catch both OSU and PSu early, before either team gets a chance to figure out all their questions on offense - more importantly, getting PSU at home.  OSU could potentially sleepwalk after the USC game if they lose, and the leadership just isn't quite there like it has been the past few years.  The Illini return nearly every weapon on offense and are way under the radar.  Fairly smooth sailing after they play Penn State.
 
That's all for now, will continue later...feel free to post your thoughts and/or sleepers...
 
17 comments
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lineguesser says:
06/12/09 04:07PM
Baylor is they played in ANY other division or conference in the country - they will be a tough out all year long though and will be the best 5-7 team in the country at the end of the year.  I hope they go 6-6 b/c they will destroy someone in a bowl if they go.

Oregon - not sure if they are really a sleeper, but if they can go in and beat Boise (big if) and get their O-line figured out early, their schedule sets up great with all the tough games at home and 5 Pac-10 home games.

Arkansas - now that's a sleeper   Year 2 of Petrino and they were starting to look good at the end of last year.

Iowa, Okie St., UCLA, Ga Tech, and Southern Miss also come to mind...


lineguesser says:
06/12/09 04:07PM
*Baylor if they played...
DoubleUp4Life says:
06/12/09 05:59PM
I don't trust Juice or Ron Zook .... I have the Illini losing 4+ Games forsure

 

But I agree about LSU they could Win the West but the Schedule has 4 really hard games

MDnightFlight says:
06/15/09 01:03AM
 Arizona
DoubleUp4Life says:
06/15/09 12:28PM

LSU will burn your money I think they are 8-23 ATS vs the SEC the last 4 years

BAMAPERRY says:
06/16/09 04:28AM
LSU has a MAJOR problem --------> Les Miles....idiot


The sleeper in the SEC is Arkansas, they will be much better. However, they have a BRUTAL schedule:

2009

FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

SCHEDULE

SUBJECT TO CHANGE

DATE OPPONENT
9-5-09 MISSOURI

STATE

9-19-09 GEORGIA
9-26-09 at

Alabama

10-3-09 Texas

A&M @Dallas,

TX

10-10-09 AUBURN
10-17-09 at

Florida

10-24-09 at

Mississippi

10-31-09 EASTERN

MICHIGAN

11-7-09 SOUTH

CAROLINA

11-14-09 TROY
11-21-09 MISSISSIPPI

STATE

11-28-09 at

Louisiana State


DoubleUp4Life says:
06/16/09 01:23PM

Yeah agree Brother

out of those 4 Games  LSU will be lucky to Win One... 

Im Guessing Les costs them another game on Top  7-5 or 8-4 sounds about right

LSU is 8-23-2 ATS vs the SEC the Last 4 years ...

Why not Fade away when SEC play come again ???

DoubleUp4Life says:
06/16/09 01:24PM
Illinois is sliding down my Rankings ..
bracks says:
06/16/09 03:45PM
Double-

i know that stat comes around about SEC play when talking about LSU, but I think you have to look deeper. They have started the season ranked no lower than #8 in the nation. They have been a Dog only 5 time since the past 4 yrs(LY says E for UGA game). So, this yr seems a lot of people are down on the Bayou Bengals, and if they are getting pts, or low favs, I think they might be great play. Also, a nice PS stat, Bengals have won 21 out of their L22 night games. NO one wants to come to Death Valley @ night (Vandy, UL-L, FLa, Aub, Tul, LaTech, Ark this yr)

Could be a good yr to be taking the Tigers @ H. They always try to make their games @ night, and they have gotten it this yr.
thorpe says:
06/16/09 06:35PM
Lindetrain - any more sleepers? 
lindetrain says:
06/16/09 09:40PM

Not sure if I have any more with all this hate toward my two so far

Only kidding, just need some time to read through more conferences

TRoe, shoot me a PM when you get a chance

TRAIN69 says:
06/16/09 10:09PM
what are your thoughts on Lville and Kentucky this year? Down year for both?

 

gl bro

lineguesser says:
07/12/09 09:09PM
Just bet some "sleepers" down at the M Resort in Vegas today to win the NC.  I don't really expect any of these to win, but if the cards fall right, it could mean a big payoff and there's always the opportunity to hedge late in the season or in the NC game itself.  Some pretty good odds on teams down there.  I can relay any other team's odds for whomever is interested.

Here's what I am on:

Penn St. 35/1 1 Unit
California 50/1 1 Unit
Oregon 60/1 1 Unit
Illinois 100/1 1/2 Unit
Rutgers 200/1 1/2 Unit

Georgia is at 60/1 and I will probably end up adding them anyways but I think they get spanked at Okie St. in game 1 (although they could recover from that early loss) and their schedule is brutal to me.  If they could pull the shocker against UF though, who knows.  Probably better to just take this one on Matchbook after the loss at OSU at around 100/1.

There is also a prop asking "will Florida or USC win the BCS?"
Yes +130
No -150


rokodesh says:
07/12/09 09:37PM
Who is expected to start at Qb for LSU this year? Pick 6 Jarrett Lee or Jordan Jefferson?
rokodesh says:
07/12/09 09:48PM
I found Jefferson's college profile.
Mobile quarterback who took over as the starter for the Tigers late in

the 2008 season ... Starter the final two games in 2008 for the Tigers,

including LSU’s 38-3 win over Georgia Tech in Chick-fil-A Bowl ...

Named offensive MVP of Chick-fil-A Bowl ... Goes into fall camp as the

starter at the position for the Tigers ... Has good command of the

offense and possess quick feet and a big arm ... Can make all of the

throws or can tuck it under and run ... Will keep defenses off balance

with his versatility in the pocket.

DoubleUp4Life says:
07/12/09 10:23PM

I really like the Value in Penn St... I am on them at 50-1... if they win the BIG10 at 11-1 or better it would be really hard for the NCAA to keep Jope Pa out of the NC game ... even with the SUPERSOFT Schedule ....

CAL, Illinois and Rutgers have almost no shot of getting to the NC game ... I would want 500-1 or more on any of them

I do have Oregon handing USC it's only loss this year... Doesnt mean it will happen or the Ducks will go to the NC game ....

The +130 Bet on Florida or USC to win the NC seems like a fantastic Wager ,,, considering Florida is +150 on some sites ... I predict these schools will meet in the Title game

 

 

 

Ice4Blood says:
07/13/09 12:36AM

like all of your picks... some more (So Miss, Ark, Oregon) than others (Iowa, UCLA)... i think Oregon has a chance to be a top team this year if they resolve 1 or 2 issues... So Miss is a very under the radar team...

i'm already liking LSU as a NC sleeper...

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