mactionY2K5's Blog

Seriously, is everyone on here new to betting football?

By mactionY2K5 | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, November 19, 2009 01:39 PM

147 comments

Honestly, do you think Vegas likes to just "give money away" on a game like undefeated Indy, -1 @ Baltimore? Were they "giving money away" last week making public darling Atlanta only -1 @ Carolina? Doesn't anybody have the ability to sniff out a trap game for the betting public? Honestly, I'm going to guess Vegas knows what they are doing in this case. The days of "wanting equal action on both sides" are long gone. There will ALWAYS be a game or 2 a week where they figure they know what the outcome will be, and yet they make the line bad enough to get all of the donkeys out there to take the bait. This week, look no further than the public darlings of Indianapolis only having to cover 1 point against a Baltimore team that just struggled to score points against Cleveland on Monday Night Football. Sounds too good to be true? Guess what: it usually is...

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DOVJAK says:

11/19/09 01:41PM

newkid says:

11/19/09 01:42PM

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 01:44PM

Fair line would be Indy -3. However, Indy -1? This just in: HEEEEEEEE HAWWWWWWWWWW

byharleyjames says:

11/19/09 01:45PM

I tend to agree with you on this one. A lot of respected cappers here on Indy with GOY bullshit and all that. Emotional win on Sunday night this may be a letdown spot for them and Vegas feels that way too.

The more I look at it the more I'm leaning Balty

byharleyjames says:

11/19/09 01:47PM

Aren't the ones that wanna make ya puke usually the best ones?

tgarfield says:

11/19/09 01:51PM

I have said this many times and I will say it again. When you play connect the dots you always get burned. What I mean is when you say Baltimore sucked against pitiful Cleveland and the mighty Colts beat the Patriots therefore the Colts kill the Ravens. That is connecting the dots and that is sure way to lose lose lose.

Just my opinion. I just think it is matchups and homefield

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 01:53PM

For the sake of argument, tho... Lets say public darling New Orleans was at a middle of the pack team, lets say Green Bay or Seattle, and the line came up -2 for New Orleans. What do you think would happen? Let me help you out a little bit, in case you're slow: Vegas would have made a line begging everyone and their mother to unload the mortgage on the Saints. 80%+ of the public's donkey money would go down on New Orleans, because it's free money, right? Then the Saints would go out on Sunday and lose. Happens all the time, and it's happening again with Indy...

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 01:59PM

Pickinvet, you are obviously immune to the good ol' NFL trap game, huh? GL on Indy this week...

tallguyindc says:

11/19/09 02:00PM

I understand the logic of what you are saying...

I'm normally a firm believer in the basic concept of bad teams aren't as bad as you think they are and good teams aren't as good as you think they are.

OAK/PHI and TB/GB didn't really surprise me at all. In games in which one team has an 80% chance of winning, the other team will win 1 out of 5 times. It happens.

This time, I really don't get it. Vegas does this occasionally. They are not always trap games. Minnesota played at Cleveland. They were favored by 4. They won by 14. Clearly, by this logic, they were trying to get it so that they had millions of dollars riding on Cleveland with everyone else betting on Minnesota.

But why?

What did they see that the rest of us didn't?

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 02:02PM

Pickinvet, that Pittsburgh game is a bad example. Denver was 6-1 at the time, I believe, and Pittsburgh hadn't been that impressive earlier in the year against weaker teams. Pitt was a lukewarm public choice at 60% that night. Could have gone either way, therefore not a trap. However, games like the Indy/Balt game, or the Car/Atl game last week, that are generating 75% of the public on the side which looks "too good to be true"... Those are the trap games, not one's with a lukewarm public favorite...

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 02:05PM

Tall, usually week 1 is tougher for Vegas to set a line vs week 10 and beyond... I agree with you, however... Minnesota @ Cleveland, -4, in week 1 did appear "too good to be true"...and it turned out Minnesota was a gift... The early part of the season is tricky, and usually where the chalk bettors thrive...

richardtonsj says:

11/19/09 02:11PM

I have been fading the 2 undefeated teams for the past several weeks because those 2 are the most popular teams and they will eventually lose SU since there hasn't been 2 undefeated teams this far in regular season for a long time and it has been good to me. This is the week where I'm getting off the bandwagon because the line is just too sharp and there is no more value on taking the dogs against them, especially after last SNF when BB made the decision to go for it. May it was destined to have 2 undefeated teams this year.

BOL

peepeedik09 says:

11/19/09 02:29PM

if u believe in "trap" games then you took Denver +2.5 at home, and u lost...

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 02:34PM

Agree with peep. If anything, Vegas wanted all the money on Denver getting the points, but the public didn't fall for that one, making Pitt the lukewarm choice at 60%. Not the kind of trap game I am sniffing out...

LBCWeasie says:

11/19/09 02:48PM

Raven66 says:

11/19/09 02:52PM

There is no such thing as trap games!

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 02:54PM

Sure thing, Raven...no such thing...

WillyWonka says:

11/19/09 03:19PM

INDY -4 by sunday

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 03:24PM

I'll be straight with you, EUC... If you were fading me during weeks 3-6, you were bloody rich... Weeks 7-10, I turned it around... Im up peanuts. Don't plan on retiring anytime soon... On the flip side, I just felt the need to come on here and flame those who feel that Vegas is giving money away... I admit that. It just cracks me up seeing people come on here every week, claiming to be Nostradamus, giving their picks away for free... What's the point? So that they can get the gratification of posting some free picks on here and getting a cyber pat on the back? People are really looking for that ego boost from the internet community that badly? My whole point from the start: "if it looks too good to be true, it usually is"... No need for you to call me out, EUC, and not bring anything intelligent to the table...

HutchEmAll says:

11/19/09 04:52PM

People will never learn.

HutchEmAll says:

11/19/09 04:57PM

You read thread after thread about fading the public....and the trap games...and the percent of money and bets on each side.

NO ONE CAN AGREE ON ONE SINGLE THING....yet people gladly play these "percentages" that they think they understand.

No one ever explains what all those numbers mean or proves their validity....but they would gladly use them as reasoning to make a play.

HutchEmAll says:

11/19/09 05:48PM

peepeedik09

What people don't understand or care to look at is that Indy beat a bland Houston team by 3, had to stage a miracle comeback and stupid move by Belicheck, and had to come from behind in the 4th to beat SF....they could easily have 2 losses or so. Balty has lost to solid teams for the most part. Yeah, I'm sure Vegas wants to lower their drawers and lay 3 on the road to the Ravens considering Indy's last 3 weeks.

Indy should be at least -3.

I don't get some people.

ThrillaInMD says:

11/19/09 03:42PM

pitt @ denver was 2 weeks ago? and you guys already forgot the unbelievable juice on pitt? minn @clv week 1 was a horrible example

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 03:53PM

I just want the real focus to be on Vegas and their abilities to set a line, and not what I think, or you think, or he/she thinks about who is going to win a game... I've lived in Vegas for several years, and talked to guys who work in the sportsbooks. There are always a group of NFL teams that become the public darlings, and will always attract a bigger amount of $$$ no matter how strange the line may look. So why wouldn't a game like Indy@Baltimore have a bigger line attached to it than -1 when Vegas KNOWS where the money is going to come in on?

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 03:40PM

byharley, to be honest, these games are wayyyyyyyyy to few and far between. The first big one of the year was the Atlanta/Carolina game last week. -1 on Atlanta was an invite for everyone to pound Atlanta in the wagering hard, and Carolina ends up winning the game handily... Usually, I look for this criteria: The clearly better public darling road team playing a mediocre home team and being a slight favorite (-1, -2, etc...) instead of the -3 or more that the clearly better road team should be. If the line came out as Indy -3, then I wouldn't have spent more than a minute looking at this game. It's the nature of the shady line that always raises a red flag with me, and it becomes even more apparent when the betting public vaults that team to a 70-75% consensus, or more...

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 05:03PM

You are making my point, yet again... So the guy, who's team is undefeated, and has never lost against the Ravens, is only -1? Wow...those Vegas oddsmakers need to rethink what they do for a living.

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 04:37PM

Funny, my first reaction was "how in the hell is Indy not -3 or more?". Yet Pickinvet's initial reaction seemed to be how it was a fair line. It's those "fair lines" that have the public leaning on Indianapolis at 75%, huh?

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 05:59PM

Check last week: the top 4 consensus plays, which happened to be favorites on the road, were 0-4 ATS. Those would be Denver, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Dallas. I only felt that the Atlanta game was a trap out of the 4, considering the line given to that game was VERY inviting to one of the public darling teams of the NFL, that being Atlanta... And for the record, zorokegger, it has been the fading of public picks above the 70% marker that has me on a complete tear as of late... I feel as if playing those huge public consensus plays should be reserved for the first month of the season. For some reason, they cover more frequently at that point...

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 05:20PM

I think Vegas has been doing it longer...no?

byharleyjames says:

11/19/09 05:04PM

Are you saying Vegas knows the outcome of this game already?

I was aways of the mind that thier optimal situation was a 50/50 split in the action. So you do believe that they like to "trap" the public into betting the wrong side? I'm just asking.

byharleyjames says:

11/19/09 03:39PM

byharleyjames says:

11/19/09 03:33PM

maction,

How are you doing overall by playing these types of games? I'm with ya on the fact that Vegas isn't giving away money and I try to seek these games out myself but your mind plays many games too.

I believe most on here just like to see who everyone is on and fade most. LOL

byharleyjames says:

11/19/09 03:46PM

SteelRain said it best:

over the course of time betting against them will make you money. Not about the whys and whatfores IMHO

lancer89074 says:

11/19/09 04:33PM

Pickinvet, your words here truly leave me speechless. So when your first saw Baltimore -1 your first thought was: 'wow, what a fair line that is'. If that was your first reaction, I will go now to the monastery.

lancer89074 says:

11/19/09 04:50PM

I see the reasoning for the line opening Baltimore -1 also. It is that the book is trolling for Indianapolis money and they are getting it to the tune of 87% on the spread according to Sportsinsights. You of course are one of those people who think that the books are trying to get a 50/50 split. Isn't that so?

If that were the case, the opening line, I assure you, would not be Baltimore -1.

glyde69 says:

11/19/09 05:27PM

Nah, I like the Colts, Mr. Sharpee.

NONEED4LUCK says:

11/19/09 05:05PM

i am going to come in here and laugh my ass off at you when Indy Throttles Baltimore.

jtin103779 says:

11/19/09 06:04PM

By most rating services, Sagarin, Massey, Sonny Moore, Baltimore is a top 10 NFL team. They are playing at home. The line is not a trap it is correct. The fact that 90% of the public considers Indy way better is something Vegas has to live with because if they move the line to say Indy -3, the sharp betters will paste them with Baltimore action. Its the NFL. They are almost all virtual pick 'em. Obviously certain exceptions Cleveland Detroit Washington ect. Its not Florida against Rice. If you played the game 100 times Indy would win some lose sometimes by large margins. Players are not machines. That's why its gambling

jtin103779 says:

11/19/09 06:11PM

I think Indy would be a good bet at even money no grease. I might get too. I can see game day action coming in on the Ravens.

marincounty says:

11/19/09 04:10PM

If you make your own power ratings, you can spot true "trap" games. My power ratings have Ind by 1, giving Balt 3 points for the home field. The Gold Sheet also has Balt by 1. NC has Balt by 2. BTW, I bet Ind when they went to +1 on Tuesday.

fruit20 says:

11/19/09 05:19PM

this line is making you think.......

brad4bama says:

11/19/09 05:43PM

i agree with mac on several things.every one has good points.But vegas isnt gonna post a line unless A)they believe it was exactly the way they thought it would go down by hundreds of experts doing careful calculations(which arent always right) or B)they want to sucker you into believing something is too good to be true. ill explain in the best way i can.Last yr SEC championship game when i placed my bet florida was a 10.5 fav and the total was 52.Florida won 31-20...coincidence?idk but damn good one for the most action on a game for the day.Also just recently Oregon beat Usc to death then played lowly Stanford as a 7 pt fav.The public made vegas tons on that one game as Stanford beat oregon to death.If vegas caps this game as the ravens winning outrite by 10 do you think they will open the line at that??Hell no.That would put just enough fear in bettors to keep the bets away or low.The safest bet would be The ravens at +1 or stay away!If indy wins then they win but if they lose and ur with the 70-80% that pay up...well shame shame

gambling-devil says:

11/19/09 06:12PM

Dallas -2.5 against GB last week

scsiegel89 says:

11/19/09 05:19PM

Well said. Couldn't agree any more.

scsiegel89 says:

11/19/09 05:03PM

comparing romo to manning is a joke

scsiegel89 says:

11/19/09 05:11PM

okay so before the thrashings occur, I am wrong. Peyton has lost to them, but it was before 2002. He is 6-0 since 2002. Sorry for sounding like a jerk.

scsiegel89 says:

11/19/09 05:06PM

Really jackass? when? date and score? you'll have a hard time finding it because it NEVER happened

scsiegel89 says:

11/19/09 04:59PM

no-one in this thread has mentioned Peyton Manning's record vs the Ravens. Well I'll just let you all in on a little secret, hes won every time. He beat them when they had a good secondary and a scary defense. He will be picking apart the Ravens secondary all game long.

MTFN50 says:

11/19/09 06:12PM

doesnt vegas knowing they are trapping the public mean .They know whos going to win before the game starts? I think they try to pick out 1 or 2 games that they know the public gonna bang and take the percentages that the team can lose or not cover, .Especally when the other 40 games they have going on , there making there juice on even action ,or close to it more than makes up for it we forget theres nfl nba nhl all playing games They could afford to take a risk on the 1 or 2 high profile games of the week .We must also consider the teaser and ML action On a game like the cots at -1..Some teaser betters mite like Balt at +7or 11 for instance.Just another theory .

srm627 says:

11/19/09 06:03PM

All of Baltimore's weaknesses play right into the colts hands.

Baltimore got crushed last year in Indy when their secondary and defense as a whole were much better.

If the colts get ahead by a score or two it may be the exact type of game.

koko11 says:

11/19/09 06:03PM

Yep I just started today.. Got any pointers??

zorokegger says:

11/19/09 05:52PM

My theory on Trap/Public/Reverse Line Movement Games. If this were all true, everybody here would win because all you have to do is fade the public on games they are 75% consensus on. However, I don't see many people winning in sports gambling so I don't think its that easy. If anything, people trap themselves by overthinking a game because of line movement or the like. Remember line movement only matters if you know who is moving the line.

peepeedik09 says:

11/19/09 05:18PM

peepeedik09 says:

11/19/09 05:07PM

This is my take on the NFL and spreads...

INDY -1 is a classic example of a spread that makes you look twice at that card. I've been gambling for 11 years now and when I was a rookie I would no brainer hammer Indy -1. Wouldn't have to think twice about it.

Once you reach a certain plateau in your gambling career you start to notice the angles. The reasoning why the line is Indy -1. Cold weather, outdoor game for a dome team, aggressive blitzing defense which when effective shuts down the best of QB's. Pressure is the great equalizer for defense's against QB's like Brady, Brees and Manning. See Giants vs. Patriots superbowl... Giants D does the unthinkable and holds the explosive Pats Offense to 14 and beats a team that was undefeated going into the Super Bowl...

I would not bet Indy in this game on principle alone, that's not to say it's a sucker bet or one that won't win... If you like Indy hammer it now cause the line only climbs from here on in.

I'll personally wait to Baltimore climbs to 3 on gameday and I'll lay the -120 for the 3 points and the home teams...

Experience doesn't lead to choosing the right side of the Baltimore/Imdy game in week 11. Experience allows you to see the angles and understand the factors at play. You have to cap the game and make a decision.

If you've been around long enough you'll see these games go both ways. You have to have your pulse on these teams week in and week out...

DoctoroThames says:

11/19/09 05:54PM

normally i agree, however, unimpressive baltimore cant keep up w/ Peyton and the colts, this spread looks funny to me too, however i think it would look weirder at-2.5 or 3. ima stick with the colts on basically a pk game vs balt even on friday the 13th. thats just me...

mojo10 says:

11/19/09 04:42PM

I do think there are so called 'trap games' but I think the phrase is over used. I also believe you can over think games. IMO there is a lot of over thinking going on with this match up. I'm on Indy for 2 units. Not calling it my POY or even my POW but I think Indy finds a way to win. GL

SteelRain says:

11/19/09 05:01PM

A little like Romo's stellar record in November?

SteelRain says:

11/19/09 03:42PM

You're missing the point. Its not that "Vegas knows something that we dont" its Vegas hnas identified that IND is a team with real liabilities. This IND team is incredibly good no boubt, but has some serious issues. Namely, they dont have a RB or a running game right. After the SNF game, IND is WAY overvalued in public perception. Remember, this is a more injured version of the team that beat JAX 14-12 on the opening weekend.

Anyway, there is no reasonable explanation for why the line opened BAL -1 - aside from the fact that this game is a 'trap' game.

Pickinvet, I read your posts and I know you've got angles to approach a game that make sense. We just disagree on the fact that square and sharp plays do exist and whether 'the Man' is pulling the strings or not, there are games where its foolhardy to take the no brainer.

SteelRain says:

11/19/09 03:32PM

Maction,

I ignore the retards. You should have seen how they were pounding their chests in the first few weeks of the season when all the public favs were covering. You're right on - even if IND turns out covering this game, the linesmakers set this line thinking IND loses this week and try to entice as many squares as possible to run to the window.

SteelRain says:

11/19/09 03:28PM

The source i use shows 11K wager placed on this game so far this week with a 86% 14% split in the action. By kickoff this game will have more action than any thing else on the board. Indy will be up to -2 or more.

The Man isnt stupid. He knew opening BAL as a -1 would bring a tidal wave of action on IND. If he wanted split action he would've opened at IND -4.5. IND has had a number of close wins at home against mediocre teams, JAX, SF, HOU. This game is going to be a real test for IND - going outdoors to BAL.

BAL may in fact end up losing and not covering. However, the fact is that the Man wantsd you to take IND action. Nothing is ever 100%, sometimes the trap games do cover for the public, but over the course of time, betting against them will make you money.

SteelRain says:

11/19/09 05:03PM

Oh and Peyton has lost to BAL before.

SteelRain says:

11/19/09 05:25PM

Sir,

You get it.

Rockstar says:

11/22/09 06:07PM

Had to bump this thread...
Another line that seemed too good to be true but cashed anyway!!

Thank you Indy and Vegas!!!!

HutchEmAll says:

11/23/09 11:40AM

I wonder how many people on the Colts were filling their diapers when all the Ravens had to do was kick a FG? How many times out of 10 does a QB do something that stupid? Not often. Indy backers should count their lucky stars.

I didn't bet the game because I thought the line was spot on.....no value. And for the folks who claimed Indy should have been -3, they would have lost their money.

Oddsmakers were spot on in this game.

sho$money says:

11/19/09 08:12PM

new kid you have the best avitar

don-juan says:

11/21/09 06:46AM

Don't think Ray Rice can do it alone. Look at the Miami /Indy game. R Williams and Ronnie Brown tried. They controlled the ball about 3/4 of the time yet Peyton still responded each time to score.

mactionY2K5 says:

11/21/09 06:14AM

Ok, for bookkiekilla's sake, I think we should all stop referring to "vegas", and start using the phrase "the people who make up the lines to the games for which we bet on"... That way, bookkiekilla won't lose his mind any more than he already has...

mactionY2K5 says:

11/21/09 11:56AM

Bookkiekilla, if you are going to disagree with the whole point of this post, why not do it in a fashion like Bill_Stax up above? Whether you agree or disagree with what is being said here, a large majority of you who contributed to this thread have done so in an intelligent manner, and I for one appreciate it: it makes for good reading. CURRRTIS123, its funny you brought that Pittsburgh/San Diego game up...when does stuff like that ever happen to teams that are an 85% public consensus on covers?

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 09:59PM

bookkiekilla, I guess we will see you here on Sunday? Clown...you are above Vegas, let me tell you... Hate to sound cliche, but last time I checked, sportsbooks weren't exactly shutting down. I'm sure your angles on how to pick games are so much better than using the angle of a "fishy line", and betting against joe public when people think vegas and the bookies are handing out free money... Unload on Indy this sunday, then shut your mouth and cower in your little hole with the rest of the trolls that think they are going to retire and bet sports for a living...

mactionY2K5 says:

11/19/09 06:17PM

"The fact that 90% of the public considers Indy way better is something

Vegas has to live with because if they move the line to say Indy -3"

That is the line out of your post that sticks out to me. Why doesn't Vegas ever take public perception of a team into account when they are making lines? Local bookies LOVE to tack on a point here and there to those teams the public is really in love with. Vegas, to me, knows darn well where all the money is going to come in on when they make a line like this. What ever happened to "creating equal action and collecting the vig?" I don't feel this is the case. I strongly feel this is a case of "we know darn well what everyone is going to bet when we make a line like this, and we really don't give a rats a$$!" Translation: bet all you want on Indy this week, its too easy. Result: Baltimore wins and Vegas collects 80%+ of the money wagered, instead of the vig on 50/50 action that they claim they really want...

mactionY2K5 says:

11/20/09 03:16AM

I just laugh my ass off at how I pinched a nerve with bookkiekilla. I'm sure that anyone who is such a stellar 'capper feels the need to come on here and start taking the debate outside the realms of civilized conversation... Nobody was name calling...but you had to go there. I think it's time for you to save up enough allowance money to move out of your parents basement instead of wasting everyones time on a so-called "cappers" website just to inflate your computer muscle-driven ego. I'll take you seriously when you keep the conversation a little more even tempered...

mactionY2K5 says:

11/20/09 03:25AM

One more thing, bookkiekilla: i've read some of your most recent posts/picks, and guess what: you suck. I would rather burn my money and piss on the ashes than to follow along with you on your NBA picks. The fact that you even waste your time and money on that league of thugs and primates is beyond me... Seriously, go flame and troll elsewhere... your punk attitude ain't shit to me, and neither is your so-called "cappin"

mactionY2K5 says:

11/20/09 09:07AM

bookkiekilla, you can run away any time now... I don't cower from anyone that speaks simple english... unfortunately, you don't seem to fall into that category. More winners than losers? Where is your official thread? Your official documented record on here? I can't seem to find it. The only thing I seem to find is a bunch of nonsense on a daily basis about some crackpot NBA theory that seems to be coming up empty from the posts I seem to read... Stick with the ol' roundball, son... It seems to suit your mentality and intelligence level to a T...

mactionY2K5 says:

11/20/09 02:16PM

I'm glad that most of you were able to weigh in on the debate...(exception being that nitwit bookkiekilla...) The problem with my line of thinking is that the sort of games I look for are so few and far between that it gets boring after a while. Ive had years where those kind of plays only popped up 7-10 times. Have never had a losing record yet, but how much money can I seriously make waiting for those kind of spots? Now the opposite end of the spectrum: I don't feel anyone is good enough to handicap a large amount of games in the NFL on a weekly basis and be that successful...the vig alone starts to add up and cut into the bottom line. Lets just leave it at this: we all have our own ways of coming up with picks on a weekly basis, whether it be 1 game, or 10 games a week. My whole point in starting this thread is that Vegas occasionally throws a game out there once in a while (Indy and Baltimore being one of them) where the line makes no sense whatsoever, and is designed to sucker people into the public darling teams... Sure, Indy can win this one, but I know what kind of games I like to look for, and this falls into the category.

mactionY2K5 says:

11/20/09 02:30PM

Before I go any further... Do you agree or disagree on the point that the general betting public always seems to side with "the usual suspects"? i.e. New Orleans, Indy, Pitt, Minnesota, regardless of what the spread usually is?

mactionY2K5 says:

11/20/09 02:21PM

Why should I produce any kind of record when you are the one stirring up shit on here and talking all the trash about records. I never claimed to be an expert; I only came out to discuss the topic of a "trap game" which happens so infrequently that a 6-2 record on the year is pointless that betting $10,000+ a game would be the only way to make anything worth noting. You, on the other hand, turned this into some giant pissing contest about handicapping, records, whatever... You're the piece of trash, bro, that brought nothing to the table in this discussion... You can go away anytime now, or you can go back, repeat the 5th grade, and come up with some kind of understandable grammar from time to time and offer something up to this discussion...otherwise, troll elsewhere...

lancer89074 says:

11/20/09 02:37PM

Maction,

I thought that this thread was thought provoking and it disproves the notion that we are a land that appreciates and honors free speech even if it means reading views that are different from the norm.

In Plato's 'allegory of the cave' there were those that saw the shadows of forms and thought they were seeing the 'true' images, whereas, there were those who broke free walked out of the cave and into the sunlight.

Then it was the philosophers duty to walk back down into the cave to enlighten those who were still in chains.

You chose to walk back down into the cave bu

lancer89074 says:

11/20/09 02:04PM

The inability to accomodate a competing narrative is as common as weeds. There is no middle ground and each side will appear to be a 'tower of babel' to the other writing seemingly uninteligible words.

First of all, the better team is the Indianapolis Colts but not this Sunday. This is a bad spot for them. They just beat their main adversary and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.

Now the Colts go on the road to face a team fighting for their playoff lives. The Baltimore Ravens fresh off a lackluster win against the Browns, and who, were no doubt looking ahead to this game against arguably the best team in the AFC.

The books made the opening line Baltimore -1 for a reason. So you think sportsbooks give out free money? They wanted to package the Colts this week as a wondrous piece of tres leches cake and a wondrous gift to start off the holiday season. I, for one, ain't buyin':

Baltimore +2

lancer89074 says:

11/19/09 10:14PM

All of human history is a conspircacy. Greed and selfishness and a willingness to wade through oceans of blood to attain goals has been a constant in human history including our own.

Where there are millions of dollars wagered in high profile sporting events oftentimes some strange results occur. I believe that sportsbooks will float a line to induce the public bettor to favor a side and generate lopsided action when they wish to make a killing. Anyone who doubts this is not awake as yet.

I also believe that the linemakers information is not obtained from ESPN and that they are fed insider information by those in the know for a price. This happens on wall street all of the time.

There is no honor among thieves.

troyes says:

11/22/09 04:11PM

betting against public is fine but betting against Peyton is NOT. he delivers the money once again

glyde69 says:

11/22/09 06:34PM

I think Cutler is gonna have a real big night as long as he can get reasonable protection.

glyde69 says:

11/19/09 11:21PM

BookieKilla

VGPOP says:

11/22/09 04:06PM

Colts win by 2, and cover the low spread.

This is going to get interesting.

VGPOP says:

11/21/09 05:16PM

This is a good read.

It's going to get more interesting after the game. And obviously, it will end in the penalty box.

VGPOP says:

11/22/09 02:52PM

wizardofroz says:

11/22/09 04:56PM

There's no such thing as a respected capper who uses GOY. Anyone that uses that tout verbage is basically scum.

NONEED4LUCK says:

11/23/09 11:08AM

I guess Vegas took your rmoney.

Sometimes it is best not to outsmart yourself.

Peyton Manning.

NONEED4LUCK says:

11/23/09 11:42AM

i had indy ML -135. and I was about to snag ravens +2.5. that would have been golden.

Cooler999 says:

11/22/09 06:30PM

           1    2    3    4    OT
IND     7    7    0    3    17
BAL     6    6    0    3   15



     Colts 17, Ravens 15

Yep! It wasn't even close!

ridiculoushuman says:

11/19/09 10:22PM

Was the point of this post just to get everyone fired up? Because I think you accomplished your goal, haha. I never post, actually this might be first post? But can I suggest just laying off the game all together? I'm no pro but I've done decent in a tough season and I've done so partly by laying off shady lines. I'll be spending my time breaking down the other 15 games.

andarmac99 says:

11/19/09 10:11PM

I just read this whole thread and don't think I saw one logical post on why the Colts or Ravens are going to cover the spread.

Somebody please enlighten me and keep the childish public/trap bullshit out of it.

Lines are always set where they are for a reason, it's up to you to do the research and homework to figure out why.

Splooge says:

11/20/09 04:06PM

Let's be honest...who has Baltimore beat this year?? The 4 good teams they faced they lost to. If you consider what Denver really is and SD at the time Balt beat them it's fair to say they have not won a game vs a really good team. Nothing to over analyze here w/ the exception of a let down by Indy. They have shown us nothing to indicate they are taking anyone lightly if you watch their game and the last thing they want is a loss in conference. Don't over think it.

hardeestar says:

11/21/09 02:26PM

I'm with you on that game. I thought Colts would be favored by 4. Take the Ravens.

BMWSLSMN says:

11/20/09 10:15AM

think that the way they are playing lately does indicate that they are due for a loss but I don't think its going to be Baltimore. I know it was only Cleveland, but Baltimore is playing on a short week. They couldn't put points up against Cleveland or Cinci either so have they been hiding their offense for two weeks? or are they just having problems moving the ball and more importantly scoring? We know Indy can put up points against pretty much anybody, especially a Baltimore defence with some key injuries. They're defence can't and won't win this game. The thing with Indy is you can't stop Peyton you can only hope to contain him. If Baltimore can't put up points, they won't be in this game. Indy's first loss is going to come at the hands of Houston.

kaponofor3 says:

11/22/09 04:59PM

"ISNT "ACTION" ANOTHER TERM FOR "WAGERING MONEY"??????????/ WHAT A

DOUCHE, VEGASINSIDER HAS IND 96 % 4% BALTIMORE, COVERS.COM 74% IND 26%

BALTIMORE SBR 70% 30% BALTIMORE, Boy oh boy"

If you believe that any website has accurate information on either (1) number of players who are on each side OR (2) the total amount of money on each side, then you, sir, are the rookie.

Skipster says:

11/20/09 06:01PM

You're quoting Plato to a bunch of guys who think that the word lose is spelled with two o's. You sure you're in the right forum?

Skipster says:

11/19/09 06:49PM

I've got my head so far up my butt, I can see last week's bacon. ship it.

mruck says:

11/22/09 06:32PM

PickThen6 says:

11/19/09 08:51PM

drhl says:

11/21/09 08:13AM

So a trap is a trap unless it is not a trap and U can always tell after the game has been played if it was a trap....That seems 2 b the message here...but bol

RECplays says:

11/21/09 02:29PM

Thank You Bill Stax!

Another point to make is Vegas doesn't give a shit about uneven action.They get worried about uneven MONEY.

theclaw says:

11/19/09 11:48PM

The book know's how big money players think, they know the big money players are coming down on the Ravens based on certain critera, therefore to get even action on this game the book put's out a number to accomplish this.

weeks says:

11/20/09 12:57AM

This thread is the biggest pile of shit Ive ever had the misfortune to read.

Look...over there...LOOK...its father christmas

WALOFS

weeks says:

11/20/09 01:41AM

You sir,are a good judge

flabroker12 says:

11/21/09 06:22PM

where is woodys postings

consiglieri says:

11/20/09 06:57PM

Plenty of square plays win...Vegas relishes in beating the crap out of the half genius who knows just enough to be dangerous - i.e. Covers' All-Star just as much as the square player...
The square player will give it back anyway...They will throw him more than a few bones every now and then to keep him happy and so he can tell his buddies how smart he is over a few Budweisers.

midnight_toker says:

11/20/09 02:20AM

this game is going to break ego's.....or make them......

peepeedik09 says:

11/20/09 02:02PM

Hold on a sec bookiekiella, I think you miss the point. No one's hear saying Indy is a terrible bet, they're 9-0 and they have the best QB possibly of all time... If you take Idy good luck and god bless there's nothing bad to say about that play.

Me I see this game in a different light, Peyton isn't the same QB when playing in cold weather outdoors. I'm hoping the Ravens D pressures Manning and throws off the timing of the best passer in the league.

Sure Manning could light them up but Manning could also have a bad day in less than ideal conditions for a dome QB. Home field is worth something to me in this match up, clearly it's not worth anything to you. You may be right but Sunday will tell us who saw the correct angles on this game. That's all.

Both teams are good and both teams are more than capable of winning on Sunday... we'll see.

GL SIR

goff says:

11/19/09 07:31PM

Two teams play in the NFL on a given Sunday. The line is -1, it moves to pick-em, then +1. It shifts during the week. People talk about traps, Vegas knows this and that. There are a 100 reasons to bet Team A and 100 reasons to bet Team B. The smarts say this and the public says that. It's debated on Covers and everyone has an opinion. But all you got to do to win is figure out who will win the game, distill everything down to the actual important reasons to bet on Team A or Team B. The line and trap and all that bullshit may be one of them. Then when all is said and done, just hope no one misses an extra point or tips the ball into the other teams hands and run it back for a touchdown, or a coach goes for it on 4th down. If you are on the right team, you win your bet and have earned the label "GENIUS"

goff says:

11/19/09 07:58PM

Dizzip says:

11/20/09 10:12PM

Gentlemen - do me a favor - critique these articles:

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=174762

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=174759

DOVJAK says:

11/19/09 06:35PM

TheMattadore978 says:

11/22/09 03:00PM

People read to much into % on covers, people are wagering 0 dollars on the covers pickem where they get the %s from

ashdogs says:

11/22/09 06:25PM

and what about the eagles today.. everyone love them including me and line is just -3.. can cutler heat up again?

mojo10 says:

11/19/09 08:05PM

CastlesInTheSky says:

11/20/09 11:12AM

BOOKKIEKILLA,

Dude, you're out of your mind. You ruined this thread and have brought nothing but BS to the convo. Indi or Baltimore, the only loser is YOU! I dont care what your picks are on this website, you're a loser.

CastlesInTheSky says:

11/20/09 11:25AM

The Baltimore defense is going to have their hands full. Payton Manning has proved he can beat anyone and rolled this defense before.

Baltimore has a lot to prove, can their offense really compete against the Colts? I doubt it but I'm still taking the Ravens.

I'm usually a square and maybe I'm one for taking the dog in this matchup. Being undefeated is hard! All competitors look to beat the best and this Sunday is Baltimore's opportunity at home, on their grass. The line does smell funny which means ill make a small play and only cause im going to the game. How can I not be one of the 10's of thousands of fans routing to silence Manning's play calls with action on the line. The crowd really could be the difference maker. aka, home field advantage. So i dont sound like a dramatic loser, bookkiekilla.

vegasrebel417 says:

11/23/09 02:06AM

I said this on the other thread in general discussion. No matter how many times you get disprove this nonsense, it will be back this weekend when people are screaming about trap lines. It just doesn't exist

ForecastinFloyd says:

11/20/09 01:37AM

I have to be honest, after the first post, I didn't read another reply. I have watched every single one of Baltimore-Indy match ups in the Manning era, and have most importantly watched both teams play this year. With that being said, it's only Indy, or no play from a neutral standpoint, IMO.

Indianapolis is clearly the better team on the road, or at home. Enough with the Vegas and magic eight ball theories.

Indianapolis takes this game early, and it won't even be close.

Either way, best of luck to everyone on their plays. Some of these theories are good for a laugh or two.

FF

ForecastinFloyd says:

11/20/09 10:03AM

I'm highly surprised at the overwhelming amount of confidence in a Ravens team that have not scored a offensive TD in the first half of any game

since they played New England in week 4.

Sorry, that's not going to

keep you in the game against Indianapolis.

jkirkpleasant says:

11/21/09 01:26PM

i definately believe some games are fixed. how about saints/falcons on mnf?! new orleans were 10.5/11 pt. favorites all week and are up by 11, when atlanta kicks a useless fieldgoal to get within 8 and there's 27 seconds on the clock. vegas just covers the spread on some major $. happens all the time. i'll bet on indy, but i'm not betting the mortage.

xxMARTINIxx says:

11/21/09 10:47AM

Well, I can tell you this, usually a team that should win losses, they tend to win the following week! Example Green Bay Packers- they were embarrassed by Tampa Bay Bucs, and the following week came and almost held Red Hot Dallas scoreless, Ravens is a different scenario, But coming from a not so good performance against Browns, they are looking to play harder and beat the favovered Colts, if odd makers were sucking us in, they would make Indy -14 pt favs!!

PS150 says:

11/20/09 11:24AM

Can't we just pick some games and list the reasons why?BOL to all

j_schnappa says:

11/19/09 10:07PM

GunShard says:

11/20/09 06:02AM

Flacco might cost the Ravens. He played awful against the Vikings. The Colts are on the same level as the Vikings.

tallguyindc says:

11/22/09 08:32PM

It wasn't a useless field goal. It cut their margin to a TD and extra point. With an onside kick and hail mary....

What exactly would you expect Atlanta to do there in a game that wasn't "fixed"?

SteelRain says:

11/21/09 07:55AM

Quit braying like a fucking donkey. TJohnson's post actually made a lot of sense. He is merely identifying the fact that the IND/BAL line reflects that there are some key vulnerabilities that IND has going into a game like BAL.

Thus, if the line had been IND -3, he made the correct point that a lot of sharp action would've come in +3 and even more would come in when the public moved the line greater than 3. The way it is now, the public action is still going to move the line to -2.5 or so, but the books arent going to open themselves up to the liability they would have incurred if they originaly had opened at -3. Regardless of which line this game opened at, the public was going to swarm IND - no way around that, but opening BAL at -1, negated some of the sharp action that could've cost the books this weekend.

Stop screaming like a baboon, you arent as intelligent as you think you are. any you know full well what is meant be "vegas". LVSC that generates line for every week is what provides the basis for each book to use. Do you think he sportsbook has their own crop of linesmakers working each and every game?

icover4u says:

11/20/09 03:45AM

Myself I am on baltimore, but this one was a tough choice for me, peyton is one of the best, myself i think the line is a bit fishy and i believe colts go down a game in this one I could be wrong though, BOL to all though

mr_armchair_qb says:

11/21/09 04:28PM

Im taking the Ravens regardless.

2169 says:

11/20/09 06:54PM

i just want to say this is a good thread. I think Colts have a good chance to lose in the upcoming weeks, and thats why the lines are -1. It was -1 vs the Pats, and again this week. If the Colts win this week, the line will be -1 again next week in Houston, and if they win in Houston it will be -1 again vs the Titans. Books are gonna set the line low until they get their money. i don't think the line was set low because books think the Ravens will win, I think the line opened this way to set up future games. I think they lose in Houston btw.

tjohnsont says:

11/20/09 09:03PM

Based on last week's experience, I think Vegas is sending us warnings- I was dumb enough picking Atlanta and Denver (covers had 70%+ of their voters doing the same) because of the low spread and look what happen. If Vegas would have left both spreads at -6, I would have done the same so I don't see it more as Vegas knowing something we don't and maybe we should re-think our bet. Who would have known Atl would have lost to Car straight up.

Conclusion: Vegas is sending us 'gift' messages or you can call it a 'trap'- either way, it has warning signs all over it.

tjohnsont says:

11/20/09 08:32PM

[Quote: Originally Posted by fuDanSnyder] New poster here. I live in MD (skins fan) but watch all the Ravens games as well. This is not the same daunting defense people are used to seeing from the Ravens. Their secondary, with the obvious exception of Ed, is horrible. Dominique Foxworth will be covering Reggie Wayne a bunch. Terrell Suggs is out which I think will open up Dallas Clark even more. I do not see this defense being able to stop Peyton and all the weapons he has. The Colts won 31-3 last year and that was a better Ravens team. The only offensive weapon the Ravens have that scares me is Ray Rice but hopefully they can gameplan to slow him down. This is a trap game like everyone is saying but I just can't see the Ravens winning this one. Is there any doubt that if Peyton has the ball to end the game he will win it? The line has me a little nervous but this will be my biggest play this week. $2000 to win $1800. Lets get this money Peyton! [/Quo

How can you call this a trap game unless Vegas knows the outcome. You and many others obviously sees that Indy has all the weapons and will win. Vegas just sees it differently. Now its up to you and other bettors to decide whos gonna win this game. Even if Indy was -2 1/2 or less, many bettors would still take Indy. So if the line was -2 Indy, would it still be a trap considering most betters would probably still take Indy?

tjohnsont says:

11/20/09 08:02PM

[Quote: Originally Posted by mactionY2K5] Honestly, do you think Vegas likes to just "give money away" on a game like undefeated Indy, -1 @ Baltimore? Were they "giving money away" last week making public darling Atlanta only -1 @ Carolina? Doesn't anybody have the ability to sniff out a trap game for the betting public? Honestly, I'm going to guess Vegas knows what they are doing in this case. The days of "wanting equal action on both sides" are long gone. There will ALWAYS be a game or 2 a week where they figure they know what the outcome will be, and yet they make the line bad enough to get all of the donkeys out there to take the bait. This week, look no further than the public darlings of Indianapolis only having to cover 1 point against a Baltimore team that just struggled to score points against Cleveland on Monday Night Football. Sounds too good to be true? Guess what: it usually is...
[/Quote

I've watched football for many years but am a rookie in the betting world so I would be considered fresh meat. I suck at the ou and I play like a typical person by playing the favs alot. And yes, I've lost the past few weeks as a result. The reason why I bet the favs is because I'm not good enough at this time to predict the final score to be confident enough to pick the points.

As for what you are saying about 'trap' lines, based on my short experience of the past few weeks, I would say that its more like Vegas is sending us signals- 'hey idiot- theres a red flag hanging all over this game, be careful' but like any other better, I ignore and bet without respecting the line that Vegas is laying. For example, last week's lines against Denver and Atlanta- man, was I stupid. Vegas warned me and I did not respect it. So I don't really consider it a 'trap' line- its more that Vegas knows something I don't and I should maybe look into that game more.

So you are thinking- Vegas is trying to trick us, I'm thinking- Vegas is trying to warn us- either way, comes out the same. Vegas could have laid 5 points against Atlanta and I would still have picked them over Carolina and I would have still have lost.

And if you think about it, if Vegas is trying to trick the public, they would keep the points consistent to prevent red flags which they are not doing.

tjohnsont says:

11/20/09 08:06PM

So is the Indy line correct? Probably, Vegas is probably just saying that Baltimore has a good chance to beat Indy just like they beat Denver- so respect the line- Ravens might be a good choice.

Bill_Stax says:

11/21/09 06:44AM

Look, if that line was BAL +3 me and every other professional would buy BAL like it was the last coke in the sahara desert. That's why vegas has it at -1. BAL +3 would put Vegas in a very precarious position, rooting against those who know what is up. They would rather have unbalanced action from squares who will give it back if they win anyway. So Vegas doesn't "want" you to take Indy, it's just that it's a dangerous game and don't want to be torched by pros. This does not mean that betting BAL is any type of guranteed win.

Bill_Stax says:

11/20/09 09:57AM

maction, when you start try to handicap Vegas instead of handicapping games, you are lost. If your approach were correct one could simply fade the popular picks every week and make a ton of money. But you can't, because, like I said, you are lost brotha

mjrojas says:

11/21/09 10:54AM

take indy!!!

Keiji says:

11/20/09 08:25PM

Let me try to help explain what PicknV is trying to say.. He doesnt think its a trap, beacause A) traps are for mice and B) its week 11, theres a disclosure af TELLS and consistencey.. Bmore is good but Indy is alot better.. Look at the last 5 seasons... Peyton is much better at Chess than their Defense.. He has proven it the last 9 games.. Bmore cant match up.. Therefore, its not a "trap", He see's it as a Line error and since its at -1, he's confident that Indy can hammer that.. Indy will not lose their streak to Bmore.. Let it b settled Sunday... By the way, I hate the colts... But Sunday, its go Indy!! Get that Cake!

ACL says:

11/19/09 06:42PM

maction,

Honestly, I think Vegas could have set the line at (-2.5) or (-3) and gotten an even more confident response from Colts bettors ... if anything, I think this is a trap to get people to bet on BALT because the general public likes upsets and wants to see the leader go down. There might be some reverse psychology here ... people see the initial line and think, "what does Vegas know that I don't" or "why is the game so tight?" ....

I'm on the Colts because they are an exception to the rule. Undefeated teams have to lose, right? Wrong! Not when Peyton is leading! Colts may have "escaped" their only loss of the Reg season last week against the patriots ... they won't be motivated because they had a "glorious come-back win" but instead they will realize their wake-up call to true potential for an undefeated season. They passed the hump with New England ... all down hill from here!! I'm not saying Balt can't win, but Colts (-1) is an opportunity you just can't pass up!!

SHIP IT!!

ACL says:

11/19/09 06:30PM

I like your point here ... you can't "connect the dots," especially in the NFL and especially this year! I think I (and others) have learned the hard way with a few teams this year. That said, I LOVE the COLTS in this game. The only thing BALT has going for them right now is home field ... match-ups, experience, injuries, hearts, etc. ... all in Colts' favor.

SHIT IT!!!

La_Experta says:

11/20/09 10:51AM

I want to play six teams for this Sunday, Nov. 22. What teams do you recommend.

ddannydawg says:

11/20/09 05:25PM

At the end of the day is gambling. I chose Colts on this one. Its all a prediction. My prediction is that the line started at -1, Vegas will get heavy bets on Colts. Then by game time it will go up to -3. Making Baltimore a bit more attractive to even the bets out. Either way I do belive the line is correct. Both teams are sharp. Read a few comments, people are comparing Colts to other teams. That is not possible. Teams react different under pressure.

The reason I went Colts is because of Suggs being out and because of the short week of practice/rest. I do belive that Baltimore is on the rise and the only way to go for the Colts is down. Manning seems to know something about the Baltimore defense as he has shown he can beat them.

fuDanSnyder says:

11/20/09 08:26PM

New poster here. I live in MD (skins fan) but watch all the Ravens games as well. This is not the same daunting defense people are used to seeing from the Ravens. Their secondary, with the obvious exception of Ed, is horrible. Dominique Foxworth will be covering Reggie Wayne a bunch. Terrell Suggs is out which I think will open up Dallas Clark even more. I do not see this defense being able to stop Peyton and all the weapons he has. The Colts won 31-3 last year and that was a better Ravens team. The only offensive weapon the Ravens have that scares me is Ray Rice but hopefully they can gameplan to slow him down. This is a trap game like everyone is saying but I just can't see the Ravens winning this one. Is there any doubt that if Peyton has the ball to end the game he will win it? The line has me a little nervous but this will be my biggest play this week. $2000 to win $1800. Lets get this money Peyton!

fuDanSnyder says:

11/20/09 08:50PM

[/Quote]

Yea I see what you're saying. Instead of trap I would say suspicious line. Something just doesn't seem right about. But even if line was Indy -4 I'd still take them. I just think they will win by fairly easily. I might be totally wrong but I'm gonna roll with it.

DrHindsight says:

11/21/09 12:18PM

It is so much simplier than this thread is making it out to be. The books want equal betting on both sides so they can go the bank with their vig profit and not even have to watch the game. Isn't that what you would want if you were a bookie? Hell, you don't have to even be a football fan to be a bookie. It's a business, it's not personal. Occassionally, they miss read a game, set a line, the masses go one way, and the bookies find themselves rooting for one team or one total. They may even lose. So what! It is a businesss expense that comes off the profit margin. Like any good business, they try to keep this to a minimium. If Indy is set at -1 and all the action is on Indy, all that means is that with all their information and ability to set lines, they misjudged the flow of money they expect on Baltimore. They don't have any clue who is going to win, and most of the time they don't give a shit who is going to win. If all the money is on Indy and they HAPPEN to win, all that means is the books will lose on that game and won't laugh as hard as usual to the bank. As far as their concerned, Baltimore has just as good a chance to win and then it is a windfall profit. There are no messages, no trap games, no gifts from Vegas. If the people who set the lines ever read this thread they would be cracking up over the mental masturbation that is going on here. Move on, make your picks, and hope lady luck is with you.

DrHindsight says:

11/21/09 01:35PM

[Quote: Originally Posted by CURRRTIS123]

YOU SIR ARE A ROOKIE, was your first bet carolina -3? on thursday

Actually it was Miami +3 and I think I will retire undefeated.

DrHindsight says:

11/22/09 10:16PM

I have no idea what this guy is talking about. It sounds like he got "trapped" into betting on the Ravens due to his own confusion. What a rookie.

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