madshooter72's Blog

Daytona Speedweeks Discussion

By madshooter72 | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2010 11:12 AM   49 comments

Well, well ,well......look what we finally have here. The 1st odds of the year for the 500.....Discuss


Sprint Cup
Daytona 500
Sun 2/14  12:00PM

Kyle Busch       +785   
Tony Stewart       +975   
Dale Earnhardt Jr       +1200   
Mark Martin       +1300   
Jimmie Johnson       +1300   
Jeff Gordon       +1300   
Denny Hamlin       +1300   
Kurt Busch       +1300   
Juan Pablo Montoya       +1700   
Kevin Harvick       +2000   
Carl Edwards       +2100   
Matt Kenseth       +2100   
Jamie McMurray       +2500   
Ryan Newman       +2600   
Clint Bowyer       +2800   
David Ragan       +2800   
Joey Logano       +2800   
Jeff Burton       +3300   
Martin Truex Jr       +3300   
David Reutimann       +3300   
Kasey Kahne       +3300   
Brian Vickers       +3500   
Greg Biffle       +4000   
Brad Keselowski       +4500   
Michael Waltrip       +5500   
Sam Hornish Jr       +5500   
Marcos Ambrose       +5500   
Aj Allmendinger       +5500   
Casey Mears       +6200   
Elliott Sadler       +6600   
Bobby Labonte       +6600   
Scott Speed       +12000   
Paul Menard       +12000   

comment Post A Comment
madshooter72 says:
1/20/2010 4:39:22 PM
not sure why these old threads from 6 months ago keep getting bumped up 
madshooter72 says:
1/21/2010 6:18:17 PM


now that is great news, also, not sure if you guys heard or not, but apparently M. Waltrip will be driving the #51 truck (kyle's old ride) for a couple of races this year, including Daytona. Hope we some good value on Mikey for the truck race as he will most likely have to be a play for sure.

Looselugs says:
1/21/2010 7:19:15 PM
They haven`t said   "Gentlemen start your engines" and we already have a lot of electricity .

You got to love it!

 Good to see them wings taken off. Nascar is not F1 nor Indy car.

Like the idea of a bigger plate at Talladega and Daytona. Maybe this will seperate these cars a little bit. Allowing bump drafting..hum we`ll have to see how that comes out. Some drivers that know how to use it can take advantage of this.

Good Luck to everyone this year!
Looselugs says:
1/22/2010 6:19:36 PM
Mad, what do you think of Paul Menards chances?

Last year he got caught up in a wreck at Daytona in the spring and Talladega in the fall.
 Finished 13 in the spring at Talladega.

2008 (in a Chevrolet ) finished 14th at Talladega in the spring.finished 15 at Daytona in the fall . finished 2nd at Talladega in the fall.

The man definitely  knows how the work the draft. Got that Yates power under the hood and with this wider plate hole this might play in a factor. Got Petty Enterprise joining on and you know Petty knows how to produce power (win no 198).  Got Robert `Slugger` Labbe making the shot at crew chief now.

I don`t know at 120-1.  what do you think?
stats1 says:
1/22/2010 8:28:17 PM
          i would bet on r.gordon or dave gilland b4 i bet on menard  should get better value on both        robby is always there at the end of plate tracks
madshooter72 says:
1/22/2010 8:29:12 PM


at those odds, worth a play in my book. These are the types of races that the unexpected seem to happen more often than not. I think kezolowski was 300-1 odds when he won dega last year. Gl this year, think we all have a good chance to clean house early in the year with all the changes.

hawk5 says:
1/23/2010 8:10:10 AM
The yellow line is still in play. Bump drafting will be unregulated and the wing will stay in to March. Early leans, Stewart, Kyle, and JR.
MillerLiteBoy says:
1/24/2010 11:19:48 AM

Mikey and Truex have great odds and are must taps.  A cat that is VERY good at Daytona and had it won last year is Sadler.  He is in a Ford this year.  I think he is the BIGGEST sleeper out there. 

Favs to me are Kyle and Hamlin.  I won't touch Junior.  He has lost his domination at plate racing for several years. 

stats1 says:
1/25/2010 12:31:58 AM
mcmurray    has decent odds in that dei_ ganassi car   wouldnt suprise me if hes on the pole!!!!!!
MENACE says:
1/27/2010 2:05:21 AM


Me too.  This guy is a hell of a plate racer.  I will have him at every plate race until vegas acknowledges the fact that he should be between 10 and 15 to 1.


Looking forward to a good season fellas!


madshooter72 says:
1/27/2010 2:15:10 PM

updated dimes odds


Sprint Cup
Daytona 500
Sun 2/14  12:00PM
Kyle Busch       +700   
Tony Stewart       +850   
Jeff Gordon       +1000   
Dale Earnhardt Jr       +1100   
Jimmie Johnson       +1200   
Denny Hamlin       +1300   
Mark Martin       +1400   
Kurt Busch       +1400   
Juan Pablo Montoya       +1500   
Carl Edwards       +1800   
Kevin Harvick       +2100   
Matt Kenseth       +2200   
Ryan Newman       +2600   
Jeff Burton       +2600   
Clint Bowyer       +3000   
Jamie McMurray       +3000   
Brian Vickers       +3100   
Joey Logano       +3300   
David Ragan       +3600   
Martin Truex Jr       +3600   
Kasey Kahne       +3600   
David Reutimann       +4000   
Greg Biffle       +4000   
Brad Keselowski       +4000   
Sam Hornish Jr       +5500   
Marcos Ambrose       +5500   
Casey Mears       +5500   
Michael Waltrip       +6000   
Aj Allmendinger       +6000   
Elliott Sadler       +6600   
Bobby Labonte       +7000   
Scott Speed       +10000   
Paul Menard       +12000 

madshooter72 says:
1/27/2010 2:15:39 PM
can't believe mcmurray has gone up from +2500
yourpixelarmy says:
1/27/2010 3:00:38 PM
I see no reason why Allmendinger and Sadler won't have another shot at it this year.

Aj Allmendinger       +6000   
Elliott Sadler       +6600   
madshooter72 says:
1/27/2010 6:09:31 PM

Locked in Sadler @ +6600


so far

McMurray @ +2500

Bowyer @ +2800

Sadler @ +6600



madshooter72 says:
1/27/2010 6:11:27 PM
really looking for the real value plays right now, Everyone will be on Kyle, Tony, Jeff and Jr in 1 way or another, but with those guys all at +1100 or less, going to wait it out for now......hopefully during Q day, these guys have terrible Q times, and we see some more value added.
madshooter72 says:
1/27/2010 7:34:40 PM


waiting to see some lines, but we know that smoke will be good for sure,  his worst finish there in the last 4 races is 3rd, and since 2001 he has a avg. finish of 4.1 with 3 wins and 8 out of 10 being in the top 4

madshooter72 says:
1/27/2010 7:35:28 PM


meant 7 out of 9 races finishing in the top 4

madshooter72 says:
1/27/2010 8:27:59 PM

Driver Lineup for Shootout

No. Driver  Sponsor  Car 
1 Jamie McMurray
Race By Race Results  Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet
2 Kurt Busch
Race By Race Results  Miller Lite Dodge
5 Mark Martin
Race By Race Results Chevrolet
9 Kasey Kahne
Race By Race Results  Budweiser Ford
11 Denny Hamlin
Race By Race Results  FedEx Toyota
14 Tony Stewart
Race By Race Results  Office Depot Chevrolet
16 Greg Biffle
Race By Race  Results  3M Ford
17 Matt Kenseth
Race By Race Results  Crown Royal Ford
18 Kyle Busch
Race By Race Results  M&M's Toyota
20 Joey Logano
Race By Race Results  Home Depot Toyota
24 Jeff Gordon
Race By Race Results  DuPont Chevrolet
29 Kevin Harvick
Race By Race Results  Shell Chevrolet
31 Jeff Burton
Race By Race Results  Caterpillar Chevrolet
39 Ryan Newman
Race By Race Results  U.S. Army Chevrolet
42 Juan Pablo Montoya
Race By Race Results  Target Chevrolet
48 Jimmie Johnson
Race By Race Results  Lowe's Chevrolet
51 Michael Waltrip
Race By Race Results  NAPA Toyota
71 Bobby Labonte
Race By Race Results Chevrolet
82 Ken Schrader
Race By Race Results  Red Bull Toyota
83 Brian Vickers
Race By Race Results  Red Bull Toyota
88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Race By Race Results  National Guard/AMP Chevrolet
99 Carl Edwards
Race By Race Results  AFLAC Ford

madshooter72 says:
1/27/2010 8:30:00 PM

Schrader running a redbull car will be worth a look, he should be at least +2500 or more.

I see about 7-8 people that should have a real good chance next saturday.

madshooter72 says:
1/27/2010 8:30:29 PM


If smoke is at +500, i will be hammering that line.

yourpixelarmy says:
1/27/2010 8:37:12 PM

David Ragan +3600 average finish in the last 8 restrictor plate races = 12.75.
3 top 5's
4 top 10's
7 top 20's
All you have to do is be near the front at the end, and you have a shot. It's not unlikely that Ragan will be there.

madshooter72 says:
1/27/2010 8:40:33 PM

good point yourpix, ragan has run well there in the past, and will have 3 other team cars with him @ +3600, some real nice value there.

PennStateMan077 says:
1/28/2010 11:16:55 AM
i like biffle 40-1 but again am i biased

i think the fords may finally recover this year

i will wait till Qualifications and see practices before i place anything though

we should start a covers challenge for fun or for money

i can run it...

like every week we pick 3 drivers( can only use drivers 10 times)
each place is worth 1 pt.... lowest score at end of year wins

doeds that make sense?
yourpixelarmy says:
1/28/2010 3:17:30 PM
I think most of the Fords have some pretty good value. I'll look at it more in the coming weeks, but I think their odds are so good because of how poorly they performed all-around last year. 

Matt Kenseth       +2200   
Last years winner at 22:1 (12th)

Carl Edwards       +1800   
I don't see as much value here as the other drivers. He's (10th) on the list, but I don't think he has more than twice as good of a chance of winning as Biffle.

David Ragan       +3600   
(19th) I think this is the best value of the Fords based on my earlier post.  Though his results weren't brilliant last year, he has shown that he can run up front. 3 top 5's in a row on restrictor plate tracks in 2008.

Kasey Kahne       +3600 
(21st) Wouldn't surprise me, but I don't really like Kahne on the 2.5s.

Aj Allmendinger       +6000   
Elliott Sadler       +6600
(29-30) I think one of these two are bound to win on a 2.5mi track this year. For as much as they could dislike each other, they seem to work well together.  I like Allmendinger more though. He was wrecked out of both Talladega races, but was incredibly strong in his only starts at Daytona. The obvious 3rd in his first 500. And his other run, a 17th place finish, was almost as impressive. After being drilled by my buddy Scott Speed in the trioval and bringing out the last caution of the race, he brought a pretty darn damaged car to finish (17/28) of lead lap cars---passing most of them right at the end.

Greg Biffle       +4000   
This one is obvious.

yourpixelarmy says:
1/28/2010 3:20:12 PM
And hell,
Paul Menard       +12000 

If both Stewart and Smith were given penalties at 'Dega in 2008, Menard may not be winless.

Couldn't think of anything else :)
madshooter72 says:
1/28/2010 3:37:06 PM


fine with me, you can probably run it through yahoo for the picks and then calculate a spreadsheat with the points.

madshooter72 says:
1/28/2010 3:39:01 PM


forgot he finished 2nd ( would have been 3rd if not for the Smith penalty)  Very good info , look forward to your thoughts all season long.

madshooter72 says:
1/28/2010 3:41:28 PM
2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Team Chart

 Posted Monday, December 7, 2009

No. Driver Sponsor Make Team
00 David Reutimann Aaron's/Tums/Best Western   Michael Waltrip Racing
09 Aric Almirola Miccosukee  ? Phoenix Racing 
1 Jamie McMurray  Bass Pro Shops  Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing
2 Kurt Busch Miller Lite  Penske Racing
5 Mark Martin GoDaddy/Delphi/Carquest  Hendrick Motorsports
6 David Ragan UPS  Roush-Fenway Racing
7 Robby Gordon ?  Robby Gordon Motorsports
9  Kasey Kahne Budweiser  Richard Petty Motorsports
11 Denny Hamlin Fed-Ex  Joe Gibbs Racing
12  Brad Keselowski  Penske  Penske Racing
13 Max Papis (PT)  Geico  Germain Racing 
14 Tony Stewart Office Depot/Old Spice   Stewart-Haas Racing
16 Greg Biffle 3M  Roush-Fenway Racing
17 Matt Kenseth Crown Royal   Roush-Fenway Racing
18  Kyle Busch M&M's/Interstate  Joe Gibbs Racing
19 Elliott Sadler Stanley Tools   Richard Petty Motorsports 
20 Joey Logano Home Depot  Joe Gibbs Racing
21  Bill Elliott (PT) Motorcraft  Woods Brothers Racing
24 Jeff Gordon Dupont  Hendrick Motorsports
29 Kevin Harvick Shell/Pennzoil  Richard Childress Racing
31 Jeff Burton Caterpillar  Richard Childress Racing
32 Reed Sorenson (PT)  Dollar General  Braun Racing
33  Clint Bowyer General Mills/Cheerios  Richard Childress Racing
34 Travis Kvapil  Long John Silvers   Front Row Motorsports
36 Mile Bliss  Wave Energy Drink   Tommy Baldwin Racing
37 Kevin Conway  Extenze  Front Row Motorsports 
38 David Gilliland/Robert Richardson Jr. Mahindra/Taco Bell   Front Row Motorsports 
39 Ryan Newman Army/Haas/Tornados  Stewart-Haas Racing
42 Juan Pablo Montoya Target  Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing
43  AJ Allmendinger  Best Buy  Richard Petty Motorsports
46 Terry Cook Whitney Motorsports   Whitney Motorsports 
47 Marcos Ambrose Little Debbies/Kleenex   JTG-Daugherty Racing
48 Jimmie Johnson Lowe's  Hendrick Motorsports
49 David Gilliland (PT)  Warner Brothers   BAM Racing 
51 Michael Waltrip (PT)  NAPA  Michael Waltrip Racing
56 Martin Truex Jr.  NAPA  Michael Waltrip Racing
66 ? ?  Prism Motorsports 
71 Bobby Labonte  TaxSlayer  TRG Motorsports 
77 Sam Hornish Jr. Mobil 1/AAA  Penske Racing 
78 Regan Smith  Furniture Row   Furniture Row Racing
82 Scott Speed Red Bull  Red Bull Racing
83 Brian Vickers Red Bull  Red Bull Racing
88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. AMP/National Guard  Hendrick Motorsports
90 ? Keyed-Up Motorsports  Keyed-Up Motorsports
98 Paul Menard Menard's  Richard Petty Motorsports 
99  Carl Edwards Aflac  Roush-Fenway Racing

PennStateMan077 says:
1/28/2010 3:52:05 PM

yes that is very true.. i will see if there is interest
yourpixelarmy says:
1/28/2010 4:12:13 PM

Lookin' forward to learning some things from you guys here.  I've never really bet Nascar much, just championship and daytona 500s. I figure I spend so much time reading Nascar and playing fantasy during the season that I might as well give capping a try.

I'm just glad to see that there are other people staring at Nascar boards waiting anxiously for activity to pick up!

Also, I'd be interested PennStMan
madshooter72 says:
1/29/2010 8:21:53 AM



some nice odds there on your boy Biff, he's won here before, maybe he can pull off another 1 @ 40-1

clepto says:
1/30/2010 1:07:28 AM
What's up shooter? Good conversation everyone, can't wait for the season but I'll be and already have bet the #18,#42,and #88.
MillerLiteBoy says:
1/30/2010 12:38:25 PM

Stewart certainly is very good at Daytona but never won the 500.  He will be strong but I expect he will fall short yet again.  he's better when that track is nice and slippery. 

Sadler is a must hit and I think Mikey is as well.  Mcmurray certainly in that 1 car will be tough.  I will take my shots with the bigger odds.

thehuntman says:
2/3/2010 7:17:22 PM
Nice thread Shooter....Thanks alot
madshooter72 says:
2/3/2010 7:30:16 PM


ah, all i did was start it, all you guys have contributed.....I know we are all in this together to take advantage of bad lines and win some

TREE88 says:
2/3/2010 8:19:24 PM


Looselugs says:
2/4/2010 11:36:01 AM
•Thursday, February 4
•12:30 pm NASCAR Media Day (3 Hours) ESPNEWS
•12:00 pm NSCS Michigan Replay SPEED
•3:00 pm Dave Despain on Assignment: Building the Daytona 500 SPEED
•4:00 pm NASCAR Live SPEED
•5:00 pm NSCS Budweiser Shootout Practice SPEED
•6:00 pm NASCAR Now ESPN2
•6:00 pm NASCAR Live SPEED
•6:30 pm NSCS Budweiser Shootout Final Practice SPEED
•7:30 pm NASCAR Media Day: 2010 Preview SPEED
•9:00 pm Bud Shootout Selection Show SPEED
•10:30 pm 4th Annual SPEED Performance Awards SPEED
•11:30 pm NSCS Budweiser Shootout Practice SPEED

•Friday, February 5
•12:30 am NASCAR Live SPEED
•1:00 am NSCS Budweiser Shootout Practice SPEED
•2:00 am NASCAR Now ESPN2
•2:00 am NASCAR Media Day: 2010 Preview SPEED
•3:30 am Bud Shootout Selection Show SPEED
•8:00 am Dave Despain on Assignment: Building the Daytona 500 SPEED
•12:00 pm NASCAR Media Day: 2010 Preview SPEED
•1:30 pm NASCAR Live SPEED
•2:00 pm NSCS Daytona Practice SPEED
•3:30 pm NASCAR Live SPEED
•4:00 pm NSCS Daytona Practice SPEED
•5:30 pm NASCAR Now ESPN2
•5:30 pm NASCAR Live SPEED
•7:00 pm Trackside at Daytona SPEED
•8:00 pm NSCS Daytona Practice SPEED
•9:30 pm NASCAR Live SPEED
•10:00 pm NSCS Daytona Practice SPEED
•11:30 pm NASCAR Performance SPEED

•Saturday, February 6
•12:00 am NASCAR Smarts SPEED
•12:30 am Trackside at Daytona SPEED
•1:30 am NASCAR Now ESPN2
•1:30 am NASCAR Media Day: 2010 Preview SPEED
•11:00 am NASCAR Performance SPEED
•11:30 am NASCAR Smarts SPEED
•12:00 pm NASCAR Live SPEED
•1:00 pm NSCS Daytona 500 Pole Qualifying FOX
•3:00 pm SPEED Performance Awards SPEED
•4:00 pm NASCAR Live SPEED
•4:30 pm ARCA Race from Daytona SPEED
•6:30 pm NASCAR RaceDay SPEED
•8:00 pm NSCS Budweiser Shoot Out FOX
•10:00 pm NASCAR Victory Lane SPEED
•11:00 pm ARCA Race from Daytona SPEED

yourpixelarmy says:
2/4/2010 3:52:22 PM

Ohhh I know. Makes me all tingly inside. It's been what... 3 months? I think I'm going to go check if the 2nd episode of Johnson 24/7 is on demand yet right now.

It also reminds me of how aggravated I am about the new Shootout format. I'm debating whether or not I should continue to vent and beat a dead horse...
bsforsale says:
2/4/2010 3:59:21 PM
i hate him, but he knows how to go fast, no doubt his Hendrick Chevy will go fast too, Dale Jr.... 12-1
tony gets the press but he gets good cars too, Ryan Newman...24-1
looked good in the draft in Bama last year, Brad Keslowski.... 45-1

all these guys have handled plate races just fine, but i'd like to see some practice and the "twins" anyway before i make a call.


madshooter72 says:
2/9/2010 6:45:23 PM

Sprint Cup
NASCAR Gatorade Duel 1
Thu 2/11  2:00PM
Kyle Busch       +700   
Jeff Gordon       +850   
Carl Edwards       +850   
Mark Martin       +900   
Jimmie Johnson       +900   
Denny Hamlin       +900   
Kevin Harvick       +900   
Jeff Burton       +1200   
Jamie McMurray       +1250   
Ryan Newman       +1350   
Clint Bowyer       +1900   
Greg Biffle       +1900   

Sprint Cup
NASCAR Gatorade Duel 2
Thu 2/11  4:00PM
Tony Stewart       +600   
Dale Earnhardt Jr       +700   
Kasey Kahne       +850   
Kurt Busch       +850   
Juan Pablo Montoya       +1000   
Matt Kenseth       +1000   
Brian Vickers       +1300   
Brad Keselowski       +1300   
Martin Truex Jr       +1300   
David Reutiman       +1600   
Joey Logano       +1600   

madshooter72 says:
2/9/2010 6:46:12 PM
wow , the odds suck on these, thought we would see some better odds than this for thurs.
FatSkier says:
2/10/2010 5:39:46 PM

Jimmie Johnson 24/7 Countdown to Daytona on HBO is AMAZING!  Love that show. 

My picks for value plays for the 500 this Sunday:  Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, David Ragan. 

Have fun!

bsforsale says:
2/11/2010 1:06:12 AM
how hard would it be to make it a whole hour? the 1/2 flies by.
madshooter72 says:
2/12/2010 9:28:34 AM

hopefully we get some truck racing in tonight.....


NextEra Energy Resources 250
Fri 2/12  8:00PM

Kyle Busch       +275   
Todd Bodine       +375   
Ron Hornaday       +750   
Elliot Sadler       +850   
Mike Skinner       +950   
Ted Musgrave       +950   
Johnny Sauter       +1100   
Matt Crafton       +1200   
Aric Almirola       +1300   
Johnny Benson       +1600   
Rick Crawford       +1600   
David Starr       +2800   
Dennis Setzer       +2800   

madshooter72 says:
2/12/2010 9:29:45 AM
pissed at myself for not jumping on sadler earlier, locking him in now...I don't see Kyle winning this tonight, Like Todd a little bit, but +375 sucks for odds on a plate track. will wait to see what the field pays as its not up right now.
catdaddy18 says:
2/12/2010 12:00:03 PM
Hey mad I haven't payed much attention to the trucks so far, but Benson could be a decent play if his truck is good equipment. Have you heard him, or anyone else say anything about his new ride?
madshooter72 says:
2/12/2010 7:50:23 PM


Johnny B knows how to get around this place, he 11.2 avg. finish, which is pretty solid at Daytona.  He will be driving the No. 95 Team Gill Racing Ford . This is a new , low budget team IMO...I know that he had a little get together with his teamate because of Horny in practice 1, but the truck was fine and qualfied well....what scares me is how is his pit crew going to perform? will his truck last the whole race?  At least with Kyle's new team, you know that there is plenty of money and sponsership going into that, this team I don't see that.. Will be a no play for me.

madshooter72 says:
2/14/2010 9:51:02 PM
guys, hope we can have this much discussion come every race, check out page 1 , alot of us were on the right path for this race early on when the lines came out.  on to cali next.
MENACE says:
2/14/2010 9:55:11 PM

Originally Posted by catdaddy18:

I've always liked Mcmurray at plate tracks, I've backed him at every plate race since 2007. Including the 400 at 40 to 1( that was the most excited I've ever been over a finish Great Race)


Me too.  This guy is a hell of a plate racer.  I will have him at every plate race until vegas acknowledges the fact that he should be between 10 and 15 to 1.


Looking forward to a good season fellas!




BUMP - Glad we all knew what McMurray is at plate tracks.

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User: madshooter72
Joined: January 2006
Location: Florida
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Occupation: Degenerate

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