makaveli23's Blog

Mak's Monday Mechanics

By makaveli23 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, January 24, 2011 02:36 PM   61 comments

What’s up guys.  Apologies for the absence, out of town for the weekend.  I should be in Toronto all week and thus consistent with analysis this week.  Large slate, let’s get to it.  As always fellas, the best of luck on you wagers tonight.  Peace - - - MAK

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ NEW JERSEY NETS

PICK: CAVALIERS + 9.0 (-115) - - - 3.5 UNITS

I cringe as I place units from my bankroll on the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I thought about making this a contingency bet based on the status of Ramon Sessions, however this bet is a go if he plays or doesn’t dress.  I would prefer if Sessions plays.  Let’s put it into perspective.  The Cavs will probably be the worst team in the NBA at the end of the season.  For sure the worst in the East.  Talent wise they do not have what some of the other lower-tier teams have.  They don’t have a lot of hope for the future either, neither one of their young guns shows a massive amount of upside or potential.  They don’t have a lot of trade bait, nor do they have lottery draft picks (except their own) to build from.  The organization is in trouble...but let me ask you all a question, do you think they are as bad as last year’s Nets?  I don’t.  I think they will manage to surpass the total wins of New Jersey last season, and that begs the question, what games can Cleveland actually win?  This is a situation, a very rare situation in which Cleveland has a chance to win on the road.  Now I would never take the moneyline option, but the spread has value.  The Cavs can finally have a chance to not be beaten by more than double digits.  The Cavs boasted one of their best performances of the season against Chicago, only to be dominated in the 2nd half and lose the game by double digits.  They did initiate a nice rotation.  Sessions was injured early and Boobie is still finding his stroke.  Antawn is taking less outside shots and attacking the basket frequently.  Eyenga is a good young player with some potential.  J.J Hickson has an atrocious offensive post game, he went 5-19 last game but he is their lone 5 man and he is getting on the glass as Byron Scott has instructed.  In his last 7 games he has some impressive rebounding performances including 20, 17, 15 and 14 rebound nights.  I like the rotation used vs Chicago.  Moon and Gee out of the rotation.  If Sessions plays it should stay the same.  Ryan Hollins, Samardo Samuels and Manny Harris will all get time off the bench.  Joey Graham always plays well vs his brother and vice versa.  I have been very impressed with New Jersey’s bench.  In particular Farmer, Hump and Sasha.  All playing exceptional ball right now.  Last time these two teams met, New Jersey played a perfect game in my mind.  Hump had 18 boards, Morrow was outstanding going 8-12 with 5 treys, Farmer was clutch off the bench and Harris had a solid game...on the flip side Cavs were not good at all, Boobie went 2-10 and the Cavs went 3-12 from behind the arc....so why did the game come down to free throws?  Jersey with a narrow defeat despite dominating.  I think the Cavs matchup well here and could even break their streak and actually win a game....or Mak has been drinking too much Chronic Ice Tea’s and doesn’t realize that the Cavs have only won one game in their last 27 tries....they could easily lose this by double digits, but my gut says they compete tonight.


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makaveli23 says:
01/24/11 02:35PM

PHOENIX SUNS @ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

PICK: 76ERS MONEYLINE (-160) - - - 3.5 UNITS

I really like to toot my own horn when it comes to season

previews and predictions I got right....and boy a boy did Mak get some

right....I also got some terribly wrong. 

I foresaw a terrible home record for the 76ers at the end of the season,

I even thought they may contend for worst home record in the

East...incorrect.  In fact, this Philly

team has dominated in the city of brotherly love.  In their last 15 home games they have only

lost 3.  Two of those losses to powerhouses

Boston and the Lakers were acceptable. 

Even their loss at home to Indy was acceptable considering Collison

decided to go off for career highs in his best game as a pro, it was the first

game Iggy came back from injury and the rotation was discombobulated.  Right now Philly is clicking correctly.  They are poised and very confident.  Each player is comfortable with their

roles.  All those NBA 2K9 fans, the

player roles for Philly are all role players. 

No stars, no prospects, not even starters.  Just role players.  What I mean by that is each and every person

has a purpose on this team.  Hawes is to

be the big man, Jrue is to be the floor general, Elton and Iggy to be leaders

on the team, Jodie; outside thread.  Lou

Williams is the sixth man, he is THE MOST UNDERATED 2nd unit scorer in the NBA.  Young changes the dynamic of NBA games, which

I will explain shortly.  Nocioni will be

back tonight and should have another big game vs the Suns and Evan Turner who

also scorched the Suns the last time they met should have a good game. 

The best bench in basketball should score with ease against a soft

defense.  Young and Brand change the dynamic

of this Philly team.  Not many realize

that Philly goes small ball about 65% of the game.  They place Elton at the 5 and go with Young

at the 4.  This really causes a lot of

matchup problems for many teams.  Tonight

Frye is the key piece, after being an intricate part of the Suns recent

success, he had a horrific game vs Detroit. 

Channing has always been the type of player to lose confidence very

quickly.  He went 2-12 from 3 point

range, his 3 point shot was a key contributor to the Suns win streak prior to

Detroit.  Now with his confidence

deflated, look for that shot to be deflated as well.  Gortat is playing great and will impact off

the bench tonight.  If Nash and Grant can

work their magic, this bet could be dead in the water early.  But I suspect Philly’s home dominance to

continue as the Suns play their 3rd road game in 4 nights and final game of an

already successful five game road-trip. 

Cheezesteaks anyone?

makaveli23 says:
01/24/11 02:36PM

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES @ TORONTO RAPTORS

PICK: NO PLAY

I don’t see how the Raps contain the paint here.  The only reason I am not betting on this game

is due to the fact that I am attending it. 

I have outstanding seats and I am really not interested in betting

against my boys.  Though, I really do not

see how they win this game.  The only way

I will bet on this game is if Jose does not suit up.  I do not trust Bayless with running the

team.  He has flashes of brilliance, but

he is a cocky, arrogant little boy who turns the ball over and makes bad

decisions, I can now see why he has been traded twice in his short career.  If Joey Dorsey does not suit up the Raps have

no chance to contain the paint.  Zach

will devour every loose ball and miss at the rim.  Marc Gasol coming off his best game of the

season, maybe even his career should have full confidence and take it to

Bargnani in the post.  If Marc finds his

offense early and gets Raptor bigs into foul trouble, this one could be over

early.  Even Darell Arthur poses a difficult

matchup for Ed Davis.  However, Raps

backers have no fear...Julian Wright is here. 

Amazing defensive player, very fundamental and has all the intangibles to

be a great defensive player in this league. 

Has good vision and ball control as well.  He will lock Rudy down.  If Jose does not dress....Mak goes against

his boys.....I guess. :(

DETROIT PISTONS @ ORLANDO MAGIC

PICK: NO PLAY

No value in the line in my honest opinion.  I have Orlando winning this by 10

points.  Could go either way in terms of

spread but I don’t see anyway Orlando loses this game.  An excellent teaser opportunity, moneyline

parlay is not worth it at the odds. 

Teasing it 6-7 points with Chicago seems like an intelligent gamble for

those that play teasers.  Dwight Howard

props are hitting at a high rate.  He is

dominating against opponents.  With a

short 8 man rotation, Dwight is seeing a lot of time and is staying out of foul

trouble.  No other real opportunities I

see in this matchup.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS @ NEW YORK KNICKS

PICK: NO PLAY

Been burned by the Knicks a few times but I still love their

team.  The rotation and the offensive

system.  Love it all.  Their starting 5 is as solid as it gets when

Wilson and Galo are in.  Felton is really

struggling right now, his confidence is at a season low and if it continue the

Knicks could struggle.  Felton is a

warrior and should battle through this cold streak.  Amare may have a little trouble getting past

McGee and Andre.  Washington off a

confidence building win should compete at MSG tonight.  Still waiting on Wall to find that offensive

groove.  He is still very young and very

immature, once this kid matures and grows into the NBA game, he could be a

sight to behold.  No value in this game

at all.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS @ CHICAGO BULLS

PICK: NO PLAY

I see Chicago winning this game.  Period. 

Don’t like the spread, I just see them winning.  For those who like playing 1st

half bets (I don’t) I think – 3.5 for the Bulls is money.  Coach Thib has been very upset at their

recent lack of focus to start a game. 

They always seem to come out slow and really put it on as a game progresses.  Chicago is quietly turning into one of the

best half-court defensive teams in the league. 

It took a while for Thib’s system to take affect but it has.  They defend screen and rolls to perfection,

they take away the gaps in the passing lanes and really prevent ball movement

from side to side.  Chicago’s bench is

improving game by game.  Korver has found

an offensive groove, a much needed scoring option off the bench.  Brewer is their stopper off the bench and

Watson is doing well.  Omer Asik is

providing good big man minutes but it is Kurt Thomas who has exceeded all

expectations.  The last time he went up

against Bogut he really frustrated him, didn’t allow him to get deep post

position.  Deng and Rose should be

stellar tonight.  Bucks can defend but

they lack the scoring punch.  Delfino is

still rusty, Salmons is questionable.  I do however love Corey back in the starting 5. 

Chicago is too good at home to lose this one.  No value on spread.

makaveli23 says:
01/24/11 02:36PM

HOUSTON ROCKETS @ MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

PICK: ROCKETS – 2.0 (-115) - - - 3.5 UNITS

Oh me oh my...going against “my” pups.  My pups have been good to me this year.  #1 overall in terms of profit for me, have

yet to lose a game going against them. 

This might be my first.  They are

more than capable of beating this Houston team at home.  Nevertheless, Houston off a loss matches up

with the Tims to perfection.  I don’t see

much of a revenge factor.  Houston

dismantled this team earlier in the season but rotations will be different

tonight.  Lowry is quicker and stronger

than Luke and should bulldoze him on offense. 

Kevin Martin will actually be locked down by Brewer tonight, but due to

Kevin’s atrocious outing from the field last game, look for him to attack the

basket and get to the free throw line for easy points.  Beasley is my pick for most improved player

of the year.  He is getting no

acknowledgment.  He was written off as

misfit, a flop of a 2nd overall pick. 

Raptors say they don’t want him (for nothing), he gets shipped to

Minny.  He is having an outstanding year,

but Shane Battier is an outstanding defender, the perfect mould of specimen to

guard Big Beas.  Shane will prevent him

from going off.  Scola will not be able

to handle Love, but Hayes may actually stand a chance to contain him.  If Love dominated the glass, look for Hayes

to switch on him and Scola to guard Darco. 

The bench is the key to this game. 

In sections you have Brooks, Lee and Bud vs Webster, Ellington and Johnson.  The edge to Houston there in my opinion.  Then you have Tolliver and Nikola vs Hill and

Patterson, I will actually give it to Hill and Patrick as they have been

playing some excellent ball and have consistent rotation minutes.  I hate going against “my” Tims but tonight

should be all bark and no bite.  Houston

silences the howl in Minneapolis.  

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER @ NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

PICK: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER + 5.0 (-115) - - - 3.5 UNITS

What outstanding defensive performances from the New Orleans

Hornets.  Most undervalued defender in

the West is Emeka Okafor.  He has been

brilliant for the Hornets, a post presence. 

Consistent double-digit rebounder and provides offense when called

upon.  West is a 17ft assassin and also

consistent.  CP# continues to lead this

team offensively and defensively, he is the catalyst.  OKC has owned and operated the Thunder this

season, they have taken all respective games this season but each game was a

battle.  Both teams have improved since

their last meeting.  Westbrook has really

stepped up his game, he was playing very well early in the season as well but

now he has elevated his offensive and defensive game.  I think he outshines the nature boy Chris

Paul tonight.  Ariza is a hit and miss

offensive player, tonight he will try to guard Durant but I suspect to no

avail.  Kristic coming off a good game

should duplicate his performance.  My

sixth man of the year in the Western Conference thus far is not Jason Terry, it

is Serge Ibaka.  He alongside Nick

Collison are two ferocious big men off the OKC pine.  They will come into the game and take Jason

Smith And Mbenga (if he plays) out of their game.  Both teams brimming with confidence, I

honestly see no value on the OKC ML, I see tremendous value in the 5

points.  This should be more like a 1.5 –

2.5 spread, I will gladly take the generous points.

SACRAMENTO KINGS @

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

PICK: NO PLAY

I was very tempted to take the Kings here.  You may think I am crazy for saying this but

these two teams have a very similar makeup. 

Kings matchup very well with Portland. 

Cousins, Thompson, Landry and Dalembert can hold their own in the paint

vs Prizz and Big L.  Reke should have no

problem taking Wesley off the dribble. 

Andre will be playing through a harsh flu and Batum and Caspi will be a

good matchup.  Off the bench Sac actually

has more weaponry, but if Rudy Fernandez keeps playing the way he has as of

late, this one should be another win at the Rose Garden.  Nate McMillan deserves a lot of credit, how

he still has this team in the hunt for playoff positioning is beyond me.  Outstanding.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

PICK: NO PLAY

I see the Spurs really coming out with a lot of intensity

after an embarrassing 3rd quarter vs the Hornets cost them their worst loss of

the season.  Tonight guard play is

key.  Monta and Ellis will go toe-to-toe

with Tony and Manu.  George Hill and Gary

Neal will be key off the bench.  Blair

should have a big game here as he usually explodes against high octane

opponents.    I find it funny that a team

that is 37-7 is available to me at a one possession win (-3.0) at -135 juice

against a team that is 19-24.  Still not

the utmost respect given to this Spurs team. 

Nevertheless, I just cannot go against the Warriors.  I love their short rotation, offensive system

and starting five too much to bet against them at home against any team in the

NBA.  Value on San An, no play for me.  

bryangan says:
01/24/11 02:51PM
Thanks for the picks mak! Great insights as always.
Islandstyle says:
01/24/11 02:51PM

 Good luck tonight Mak!

I like the Cavs play

hutasadorn says:
01/24/11 02:53PM
cubicman says:
01/24/11 03:15PM
makaveli23 says:
01/24/11 03:16PM


I appreciate that, the best of luck to you tonight boss.


makaveli23 says:
01/24/11 03:17PM


Islandstyle, always a pleasure hearing from you.  Best of luck to us with the Cavs, we will need it.



McAlpine says:
01/24/11 03:17PM
Interesting and in-depth as usual. Keep 'em coming.

Yungstar says:
01/24/11 03:17PM
Great writeups as always Mak. Our Raps have to end this losing streak somehow and I find Memphis as one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. Win games they shouldn't, lose all the ones they should win. Really like Bulls -3.5 first half, good call
makaveli23 says:
01/24/11 03:18PM


I would have loved to see D.Rose in the dunk contest.  Kid has a sick vertical. 


makaveli23 says:
01/24/11 03:19PM


Love that shaggy dog.


TDubATX says:
01/24/11 03:27PM
Welcome Back Mak...glad to see your insight back. Missed it over the weekend.
jtelemaq says:
01/24/11 03:28PM
Just read all of the write-ups. They are very helpful thanks
t6rider says:
01/24/11 03:33PM
Unreal writeups man.
mtbaker says:
01/24/11 03:33PM

Solid write-ups as usual- like the Rockets cause they always take care of weaker teams this season and your Sixers play is nice too- fading you on the Thunder though and I'm gonna be on the Kings tonight

I'm sure after tonight's card you'll be sippin some drink while watching the Federer-Wawrinka match

BOL

thatsagoodone says:
01/24/11 03:40PM
nbafan88 says:
01/24/11 03:53PM
i look at it as this is a game can win in a blowout
CMJohnson1 says:
01/24/11 03:55PM
Solid picks throughout Mak.

Cavs +9 - Like you said...scary as shit.  I took them last game, and I think that's all my heart can take for a while!!  Any time you have to say the words "good chance for them to NOT lose by double digits" you know you have a shitty team!

Sixers ML - On it myself, fading the Suns, love it!

Rockets -2 - Only holding off because the line seems just a touch fishy for me.  Otherwise, the Rockets should be able to handle the Wolves.


angelfunk says:
01/24/11 03:58PM
OKC have won the last 4 vs NOR.. I am worried about this one as the thunder haven't won a big game, other than ORL last week since beating the Hornets back in December.. They have lost to LA, Denver, SA, Dallas x2, Chicago and Boston. The second tier teams like Atlanta and New Orleans have seen wins, but they are playing to much 1 on 1 without isolating Durant properly.. The hornets Defense is geared up to stop this kind of play and i think that they will have a point to prove tonight as they look for win number 9 in this streak.. I still can't decide who gets this one! TAKE the points the voices keep saying..

Btw, I just hope and prey Beasley isn't an over-sized Ricky Davis..
I think he is a pure scorer, but look just next to him and tell me K-love isn't more improved.. Beasley showed these flashes offensively in Miami and still put up 16ppg, which aint bad as a newcomer to the L. Kevin Love on the other hand is quietly putting up numbers NO-ONE would have thought pre-season. He showed potential last year but this was Al's team.. His PER is off the charts and now with the 3 point shot you have to say his game has taken the biggest leap this last 3 months. If he was on a good team he would be a LOCK to play in the ASG.. 21 and 15, Ball don't lie!

Kill em today mate..
anna31204 says:
01/24/11 04:03PM

Mak,

great insight ... appreciate the effort !!! on a side note, i'm still not able to put money on the cavs ... just can't do it (for all the reasons you mentioned above) ... but tonight may be their night  

BOL

anna31204

wop says:
01/24/11 04:11PM
Swoop says:
01/24/11 04:15PM
Mak - when do you suspect we will get word on Jose? 
kaponofor3 says:
01/24/11 04:22PM
randys324 says:
01/24/11 04:23PM
SportsFreak69 says:
01/24/11 04:36PM
Best of Luck 
LarryLeGrand says:
01/24/11 05:05PM
Good luck Mak!
evilelvis says:
01/24/11 05:12PM

Great work MAK.

GLA

HiHoldem says:
01/24/11 05:13PM

Mak Knows Basketball

thks for the picks

gl

MrBator says:
01/24/11 06:44PM

 

 

I prefer to think of the Golden State Warriors as a 13-7 home team rather than a 19-24 team.  At least that's the way I like to think of them when I'm planning to bet on them at home, as I'm doing tonight (+5.5 -105 and +190).  The Spurs have an old habit of playing as if bored when facing a weakling they've already slapped around a couple times.  They put out an unusual amount of effort in drubbing the Warriors at Oracle back on November 30th, 118-98.  A week later, they casually won and covered again in San Antonio, 111-94.  By the way, the night after that win in Oakland, the Spurs went to L.A. to face the Clippers for the third time this season after having already beaten them 97-88 and 107-95.  The Spurs completely mailed in that game and bowed to the lowly Clippers who were at the time still a lowly 3-15.

Mak, I'm with you tonight on the Sixers (I laid -3.5 -110 at the Mirage) and those stinking Cavaliers.  Best of luck and thank you for your writeups today.

Johnnynumbers says:
01/24/11 06:56PM
GL MAK....great writeups as always
kevinkim says:
01/24/11 06:54PM
i like the warriors also, moneyline play
we never know with gstate, they can beat anybody on their homecourt with their high-octane offense, spurs seems struggling on the road in past 10 games on the highway.
i like also the cavs with points, Kings to win outright also.
8739066A36F44A68879BC01FA64B3862 says:
02/01/11 08:20PM

 

I was thinking the same thing...Mak's writeups are second to none

bing4161 says:
01/24/11 06:23PM
BOL  MAK   
DeezyAZ81 says:
01/25/11 04:58PM
Looking for your Tuesday plays Mak.  I have one game on the NBA board tonight and hoping it is included on your Tuesday card so I can feel even more confident.  Looking forward to your Tuesday write up.
DeezyAZ81 says:
01/25/11 01:20PM
Congrats Mak on a perfect night!  It's almost expected from you

IMO most consistent capper in the NBA forum.  Look forward to your plays today. 
Retburj13 says:
01/24/11 11:11PM


well done
maddencurse says:
01/24/11 11:05PM
excellent work tonight
EVANTORR says:
01/24/11 06:41PM
is sessions starting?
EVANTORR says:
01/24/11 07:17PM
sessions is in
Crashdavis565 says:
01/24/11 07:15PM
Crashdavis565 says:
01/24/11 10:57PM
unreal
baojohn says:
01/24/11 06:48PM
Completely agree with all yours play. Could be a good night for us. GL
target_9 says:
01/24/11 06:43PM
tomherst says:
01/25/11 04:14PM

U THE MAN MAK U SAVED ME TOO I SHOULDN"T HAVE BEEN TAILING THE WIZARDS

wop says:
01/25/11 01:21PM
good day yesterday
golfing123 says:
01/25/11 04:28PM

Gotta hand it ya, not many out there better than you. Spot on every time you post.Well just about every time. Continued success my friend.

aireent777 says:
01/24/11 10:25PM
Another perfect night Mak
The_Ace says:
02/01/11 02:25AM


old thread
HiHoldem says:
01/24/11 10:42PM

Four and O.....don't you know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

doliver517 says:
01/25/11 02:11PM

I was to have the day off yesterday, but was called into work to take care of a wine tasting dinner at the last minute....$250 bones for 4 hrs??? I couldn't pass it up. But passing on a big slate of games was something I didn't want to do either....So I left my night up to Mr.Mak and he improved my bankroll. Nothing better than to stroll into the house at 10:15pm, check the scores, realize you went 3-0, then drop hf the winnings on the over in GSW....(thank you first quarter in GSW)...and Thank You Mak for making my $250 work night into a $650 over-all night

monkeeebrain says:
01/24/11 06:48PM
No Calderon...flu-according to ESPN
theIntrospect says:
01/25/11 12:40AM
Flawless victory tonight

ballinonabudget says:
01/24/11 07:21PM
Love the writeups mak.. Thanks for the insight 
dj_yaz says:
02/01/11 01:24AM
Gotta Smoke a couple blunts after a day like this
Dr_Zoidberg says:
01/24/11 10:28PM
dendogg55 says:
01/24/11 06:38PM
Nice Work!!!! Get it!!!!!
randys324 says:
01/24/11 10:41PM
MAK...great work!
Bostonstrangla says:
01/24/11 06:31PM
As Always awesome write ups Mak!
tmoney618 says:
02/01/11 08:15PM
Mak, where have you been I haven't seen you post lately.
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