manifesto's Blog

CFB Forum Consensus - Week 1

By manifesto | View all Posts
Posted Monday, August 31, 2009 10:31 AM

188 comments

OK boys, let's get started. With 9 cappers reporting so far, here is what we have. A couple of comments though based on some previous thread discussion. The consensus picks can change as additional cappers provide input, so if you are inclined to bet these now, realize a pick that is currently consensus may change on any given day leading up to game time. Also, I do not factor in any lines - the cappers typically provide the line they have bet but it can vary greatly from what may be available leading up to game time. Lastly, I am currently out of the country on business, so my updates may be a bit sporadic this week. I am hoping to get a final update early Saturday morning when I get back in the US, but that may not be possible depending on flights, etc.

Consensus Picks (8/30/2009)

LSU -15 (4)

Minnesota -6 (5)

Oregon +6 (5)

Penn St. -27 (5)

Information Only:

Arizona -12 (3)

Colorado -10 (3)

Illinois -6.5 (3)

Kentucky -13 (3)

Michigan -9 (3)

NC St -4 (3)

Nebraska -20 (3)

Stanford -18 (3)

Texas -40 (3)

Troy -6.5 (3)

UAB -5 (3)

* Note - number in parenthesis are the number of cappers on that game and no games listed if cappers are on both sides.

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Whodeysb09 says:

08/31/09 10:39AM

I don't like very many of the top consensus plays either Tress

bookillr says:

08/31/09 10:41AM

kaponofor3 says:

08/31/09 10:58AM

VERY HAPPY to see this thread back, let's make some cash this season fellas!

Thanks for the hard work, manifesto!

manifesto says:

08/31/09 11:08AM

Please take the bashing somewhere else...if you don't like the picks don't bet them...

tenplay says:

08/31/09 11:16AM

With 9 cappers participating so far, I an wondering why most of the consensus picks have only 3 cappers supporting it with the max being 5. How many picks can each capper submit? How many cappers are there? Anyway it seems that most of the consensus picks have only lukewarm support.

Ice4Blood says:

08/31/09 11:50AM

i've been to Mumbai... i know what you mean, to some extent... something like a 25% homeless rate, and the AIDs rate isn't far behind... but on the other hand, some amazing cultural shit... and incredible food!

have you checked out Ghandi's house/museum? that's pretty cool shit, there!

amd says:

08/31/09 11:53AM

festo....thanks for your work, I'm sure there's a lot of fellas, including myself, who are interested in the plays. Bol this week

Skipster says:

08/31/09 12:09PM

Like 'em or hate 'em, they are what they are. In general, I think that any consensus (aka the average) always drifts towards average results. Get a room full of twenty people making a business decision and they generally make the safe choice. Dynamic choices (right or wrong) generally come from individuals. That said, you cannot argue with the consensus picks from last season. I never played them. But they came through.

DoubleUp4Life says:

08/31/09 12:59PM

Awesome Work Brother

Thank You for all that you Do

PimpJzH says:

08/31/09 01:06PM

If you really want to bet on Greg Paulus, covering a college football game after not playing for 5 years, you sir have to be an idiot. I loved the game as soon as i saw Minny -6 ( before they announced he was starting), now that Paulus is starting i'd take it up to -14, its that simple. Paulus at bare minimum will throw 3 picks.

CalBear says:

08/31/09 01:08PM

GL to all...hope we all shit on our bookies

fortyTWO says:

08/31/09 01:12PM

Festo's back!! Much clown love festo!

Jim: Let me ask you this If florida was playing @ Wash what do you think the line would be? 27, 28, maybe 29 or more

My point is LSU has VASTLY superior athletes. Period. You could argue they're every bit as talented as florida (sans tebow). So why do you think -17 is bullshit? The game will be something like 42-17 only because the second teamers will be in for LSU by the start of the fourth and may give up a late TD.

Vegasbuster says:

08/31/09 01:37PM

Mumbai?

Your firm has outsourced work to India, eh?

Good work on the consensus. I'm on a couple of those already.

nc1capper says:

08/31/09 01:41PM

keep firin festo - dont let anybody get you down, with ?'s of line movement and such - do like you did last year,,the forum is thankful for your work--as is--now,,lets get that cheddar

dugie243 says:

08/31/09 01:44PM

Great stuff, festo. thanks for all your hard work man.

i'm not on all the plays, but i'm not on the opposite side of any of them

Its gonna be a great season, let make that money

GL to all

Jim_Tressel says:

08/31/09 01:45PM

I meant the line of them at -15 is off...not sure where people got that line.

I think LSU wins...just not by double digits.

I think the lines are VERY sharp this year for the first week and we will see a lot of dogs cover.

jmw59 says:

08/31/09 02:03PM

skirby015 says:

08/31/09 03:03PM

when will you post the official plays??

gwjtf says:

08/31/09 03:15PM

Great work Festo. Safe travels home from the filthiest place on earth!....

gwjtf

AlphaDawg73 says:

08/31/09 03:26PM

I get chills opening this forum on the eve of the best time of the year. Lokking forward to all the football, riding Teaxas, and fading Favre!!!

bingo13 says:

08/31/09 04:37PM

Thanks for plays Festo, let's have another great your. For all you idiots who are bashing, post your picks against these guys and then talk shit!!

Whodeysb09 says:

08/31/09 05:18PM

I completely understand what your saying. Although I don't think any of those plays are safe plays. No play is safe no matter how you like it. Penn State is the only one I agree with. I'm one of the cappers on this list by the way

Skipster says:

08/31/09 06:30PM

Yeah, I got you Whodey. I don't much care for the list either, but that's not the point. the list is the list. Last year, it worked. I won't be playing them this year either. Maybe I'll be wrong again.

Whodeysb09 says:

08/31/09 06:35PM

I'll never play this list

Ever...some of my plays might show up on the list, but as far as blindly tailing this list I won't do it. To much pride and a little bit of confidence in myself. To do your own work and when is much sweeter than taking someone elses..

Whodeysb09 says:

08/31/09 06:35PM

To do your own work and win is much sweeter than taking someone elses..

Jesus I've been fumbling words a lot lately

Skipster says:

08/31/09 06:55PM

I trust you're not above stealing ideas, though.

Personally, I'll steal stuff blatantly if the poster makes a great point about a game. A win is a win. The point is to steal the good ones and leave the crap behind.

nc1capper says:

08/31/09 07:18PM

listen to everyone - tail no one

Ice4Blood says:

08/31/09 07:57PM

manifesto says:

08/31/09 10:55PM

I am going to post the lines as the current Covers line to avoid any confusion. Note that the cappers likely have locked in at different lines, sometimes dramatically different because so many games have been available for week 1 betting so early.

Consensus Picks (9/1/2009)

LSU -17 (4)

Minnesota -6.5 (5)

Oregon +4 (5)

Penn St. -27 (5)

Information Only:

Arizona -14 (3)

Colorado -10.5 (3)

Illinois -7 (3)

Kentucky -14 (3)

Michigan -10.5 (3)

NC St -4 (3)

Nebraska -21.5 (3)

Stanford -17 (3)

Texas -41 (3)

Troy -6.5 (3)

UAB -6 (3)

Sportsfan300 says:

08/31/09 11:44PM

festo - thanks for all the hard work & to the participating cappers. New to the site but really liking all the info.

Locked & Loaded

Minny -61/2

Penn St. -27

TRAIN69 says:

09/01/09 09:44PM

That would be a no play game.....

TRAIN69 says:

09/02/09 02:19PM

Thats all that can be said about that.....

jmw59 says:

09/02/09 02:31PM

thanks manny, good job per usual

jmw59 says:

09/01/09 03:09PM

6 for minny speaks for itself

QBoption says:

09/02/09 03:20PM

...im NOT bashing, just wanna spit some real shit, if none of YOUR handicappers are on TxA$M, then they are NOT very sharp

, cuz i can see one coming a mile away...the situational, the fundamentals, and technicals aspects of this game all point to A$M...real spit...

QBoption says:

09/02/09 03:35PM

0BAFF7EBD7D74E608CF3E494B6D9788D says:

09/01/09 07:52PM

does anyone have the record for this system in the past?thanks

jimmydafreak says:

09/01/09 04:04AM

I with you 100% JT. I have one firm, standing rule in wagering college football that has stood the test of time. Never, ever lay road chalk in The Carrier Dome!!! More gamblers have lost money on this wager than probably any others. I'll either roll with the Redmen, or I'll stay away!!! There is absolutely nothing here that leads me to believe this is a solid play.

jimmydafreak says:

09/01/09 05:01AM

I meant Orangemen of course!!!

gasman33 says:

09/01/09 11:57AM

Manifesto... do you do this same consensus tracking on the NFL side? Does anyone?

darant says:

09/02/09 01:47PM

Even though most of these cappers are veterans, there is speculation that (Bigeastexpert, fritz218, nostradamus12, and pucku27) are being paid under the table by Vegas sportsbooks to go the opposite way.

Ball_Picker says:

09/01/09 05:57AM

Please, guys. There are plenty of other threads to argue the Minnesota / Syracuse game. Let's keep this to the consensus stuff. There are sooo many morons on covers these days that we want to keep this garbage to a minimum.

Thanks.

insatiable says:

09/01/09 01:29AM

great work buddy

good luck this week

cherokee10 says:

09/01/09 07:41PM

Another year of

Let's get it!!

bookillr says:

09/02/09 10:56AM

Great work buddy....I appreciate everything you do here

pete_95973 says:

09/01/09 08:08PM

I may be wrong but I think 33-10 last year.

GaryJ2 says:

09/01/09 02:58PM

Thanks for creating this thread and all the hard work. Have been following stis site for a couple of years and really enjoy it. Has helped me to make some $$$$. Maybe I will even get my feet wet and make some posts with my picks.

BL1616 says:

09/01/09 12:16AM

Great job festo, THANK YOU for all that you do!!!!!

SCOOPYDEW says:

09/02/09 10:58AM

Glad to see this thread back Thanks MANIFESTO

SCOOPYDEW says:

09/02/09 11:10AM

Manifesto are you going to list which Cappers you are using this year ?

SCOOPYDEW says:

09/02/09 02:07PM

were do these people come from???

Boom_Boom says:

09/02/09 07:56PM

I Bet Texas A&M, and I believe Doubleup did too... I bet Them for the simple fact I got a good number 3 weeks ago and i m fading the shit out of N.Mexico in this spot.

Boom_Boom says:

09/02/09 08:02PM

True... It might be the only week...

Like I said, N.Mexico is in a bad spot here.

I see Texas A&M 38 N.Mexico 13

I also like the under here...56

target_9 says:

09/01/09 04:43PM

GL this year!!!

gwjtf says:

09/01/09 02:32PM

Wow Festo...lotta plays....am a bit surprised so much 'consensus' in that I thot a few of these very sharp players might have taken the other side in some of these games...lots of respect for chalk in week 1!....

Best,

gwjtf

gwjtf says:

09/02/09 11:27AM

Festo - no love yet for the Sooners from your cappers? I'm surprised....when r u flying back to States?...

Best,

gwjtf

ksp47 says:

09/01/09 09:43PM

Festo, thanks again. The NFL forum is chaos. Good luck if you try a consensus, you may have to use 50 cappers. May want to track current cappers in NFL plays. I know several post. BOL this year.

cchsvikes1 says:

09/02/09 09:15AM

i was just wondering what the percentage was from your picks last year?

cchsvikes1 says:

09/02/09 10:59AM

thanks man... appreciate the work

cchsvikes1 says:

09/02/09 01:57PM

who is speculating that?

skirby015 says:

09/02/09 04:36PM

i agree with that comment on nostradamus. last season if i remember correctly he left the site and started his own thing where you pay for picks. very possible that he purposely goes against

manifesto says:

09/02/09 12:59PM

Scoop, here is the current list:

amd, badlands, bibendi, bigeastexpert, boom_boom, doubleup4life, fritz218, ice4blood, nostradamus12, payne034, pimpdaddy55, placinunits, pucku27, tree88, wahoos and whodeysbe069

manifesto says:

09/02/09 01:06PM

Hey gw, whats up man. So far we have 2 on your beloved Sooners. Personally I think they will roll the Latter Day Saints.

I leave Mumbai at 11pm Friday and back on terra firma in Newark at 5am Saturday. I have to say this is the worst place on earth or close to it. What a shithole. You cannot believe the filth and poverty. People pissing and crapping on the sidewalk like dogs. Believe me we don't know how good we got it in the US of A. Can't wait to get home....

manifesto says:

09/02/09 10:49AM

We started in Week 8 and ended up 33-10 including bowls for 77%.

manifesto says:

09/02/09 10:50AM

3rd, I agree, makes me a bit nervous. Although honestly last season it seemed that the consensus picks always leaned toward the chalk and we did OK. We will find out shortly. BOL.

manifesto says:

09/01/09 11:14PM

You are correct. When I started this last year, I used a hard and fast rule that a game will not be consensus if there are cappers on two sides. I will provide the count in the information section (i.e. 6 cappers on, 1 against) but it will not be a consensus pick. I did modify it a bit for bowl games because there were so few games over several weeks compared to the regular season.

manifesto says:

09/02/09 07:09AM

As I anticipated we have some changes as I have received additional picks. Lost Minny, LSU and Troy and added Colorado. The current consensus:

Consensus Picks (9/2/2009)

Colorado -10.5 (4)

Kentucky -14 (4)

NC St -4 (4)

Oregon +4 (6)

Penn St. -27 (5)

Stanford -17 (4)

UAB -6 (4)

Information Only:

Arizona -13.5 (3)

Illinois -7 (3)

LSU -17.5 (3)

Michigan -10.5 (3)

Minnesota -6.5 (6 - 1)

Nebraska -21.5 (3)

Texas -41 (3)

Troy -6.5 (4 - 1)

manifesto says:

09/01/09 09:22PM

No pete you are spot on, we went 33-10 starting in Week 8 through the bowl games for roughly 77% winning percentage. Can't imagine we will be that good for a full year but lets hope it is at least profitable...

manifesto says:

09/01/09 09:24PM

I do not do NFL, primarily because I am not as familiar with the cappers there. I would have to go on a recommended capper list because I would not be able to verify records. Last year in CFB since I started in Week 8 I was able to go back and verify all the cappers posted records via their threads. Would not be able to do that with a new NFL season. I may post a thread there asking for recommended cappers and see what I get back...

manifesto says:

09/01/09 11:58AM

A bit heavy on the chalk. 10 cappers in so far, 5 yet to report...

Consensus Picks (9/2/2009)

Kentucky -14 (4)

LSU -17 (4)

Minnesota -6.5 (6)

NC St -4 (4)

Oregon +4 (5)

Penn St. -27 (5)

Stanford -17 (4)

Troy -6.5 (4)

UAB -6 (4)

Information Only:

Arizona -14 (3)

Colorado -10.5 (3)

Illinois -7 (3)

Michigan -10.5 (3)

Nebraska -21.5 (3)

Texas -41 (3)

manifesto says:

09/01/09 11:47AM

Quite honestly cb I don't respond to the chatter as it only promotes additional stupid responses. My intent with this thread is to post information - not my opinions. And I agree, ice is a solid guy with always relevant information. He may not always end up on the right side but he backs his opinions with fact. But I guess it is difficult for some such as JT not to get emotionally attached to their wagers so in part I understand (although the bias against Minny may have to do with his OSU loyalty). Lets see where the cards fall. If we get crushed this week, I am sure the naysayers will come out of the woodwork to hammer me, but at the end of the day I believe over the long haul the cappers I have in the consensus will come out on top. BOL

softballmaniac says:

09/02/09 07:22PM

Manifesto...first of all i want to thank you for taking on this job once again.

Thanx to all the cappers for posting and making this as easy as possible for the man.

A question that would possibly grasping for straws... Did you keep a record for the information games only since you started this thread? Once again THANK YOU TONS!!!

cuba says:

09/01/09 12:55AM

Great Work, will be in Vegas in 3 days, hope lines stay some what stable

rgiefer says:

09/01/09 09:39PM

Question. If 6 cappers are on minnesota and 2 are on syracuse is the consensus then 4 or does it stay at 6. How does that work, can someone explain this to me?? Thanks

rgiefer says:

09/01/09 09:59PM

so you are saying if 8 cappers are on minnesota and 1 capper is on syracuse it would be a no play?? That wouldn't make sense. Not sure if I am getting it??

MONEYMECHANIC says:

09/02/09 07:14PM

Thanks festo. Your the man!!!

Mr_Hollywood says:

09/02/09 02:18PM

...and this is why I check this thread every week.

Ice4Blood says:

09/02/09 07:49PM

QB... don't say you aren't trying to start shit and then say a list of the most respected cappers on this site are not very sharp because they don't want to bet on arguably the worst team in the Big 12...

yea yea, they will probably beat NM... but i don't make a habit of betting on teams when it is well-established that the players hate playing for their coach...

A&M is an auto-fade team every single week after this game... if i put money on a team like that and lose i would shoot myself in the head... you put your money on them... no thanks for me!

Ice4Blood says:

09/02/09 07:57PM

there you go, Boom... like i said, this is probably the week to bet them... and the only week...

Ice4Blood says:

09/02/09 02:24PM

just ignore it... to just randomly say "there is speculation" without anything that remotely supports it is just weak ass mudslinging...

if you don't have anything more than "there is speculation" then you don't have anything...

Ice4Blood says:

09/01/09 06:00AM

just wanted people to get the facts, BP... but i agree...

Ice4Blood says:

09/01/09 05:45AM

hard to argue with that!

except that Syracuse is 7-10 ATS as a homedog the last 5 years... 2-8 as a homedog the last 2 years... and 0-3 as a nonconf homedog the last 2 years...

so i guess on second thought it isn't that hard...

-GC- says:

09/02/09 10:51AM

pfly1987 says:

09/01/09 09:18AM

Who's arguing--information why these forums exist...Pricker///Your the reason thread turn out so crappy--It's not your thread!! Chill Yo!

cburk says:

09/01/09 11:52AM

Manifesto...Well spoken, I just get tired of all the bashers on here, were all here with the same goal...too make

. Thank you for all you do, and best of luck this year.

cburk says:

09/01/09 07:37AM

Manifesto...thanks for all of the hard work you put into this thread, just about everyone here appreciates it, but then again, there are always the Jim "F'n" Tressel's of the world.

Anyone who has ever had a discussion with Ice knows he is not a Prick. Ice...you have always helped me out whenever I had a question for you, thanks.

Can't help it if people are jealous, ey?

cburk says:

09/02/09 02:10PM

Daran...Just can't fathom that scenario. Go to each one of their threads and you will see many of the same picks as everyone else for week 1. This thread went 33-10 last year. Hard to believe what your say'n bro!

Keep up the good work guys!!!

BierNutz says:

09/01/09 09:26PM

GL to ALL

--- 2 more days sweettttttt...

MidwestGator1 says:

09/02/09 12:48PM

Thanks for all your work Manifesto. Watched this thread thru the bowls last and made a boatload of CASH.... thank you again Best of Luck to all you covers forum readers...

houserjj says:

09/01/09 07:38PM

Great stuff manifesto

anti-freeze says:

09/01/09 12:29AM

TRAIN69 says:

09/04/09 05:13PM

good stuff manifesto

I'm gonna put the final concensus in a 21 point teaser on top of single plays.....doesnt pay well, but the odds of it not hitting are worse than I'm getting.....therefore, I see value

TRAIN69 says:

09/04/09 09:34PM

Douche = 26,000+ meaningless posts

jmw59 says:

09/08/09 07:40PM

Ice: your cool by me bro. I ALWAYS want to know your thoughts

Man, the Zona game sucked bad.

QBoption says:

09/03/09 05:56PM

...for the record, this is a cool thread...sorry u haters misunderstood me...

QBoption says:

09/04/09 12:14AM

...thx, i also called the boise st. game back in april on covers, and took a lot of heat for that one too...

QBoption says:

09/03/09 01:28PM

...look no disrespect intended, but, please tell me what UAB has proven...not once were they favored last year, this UAB team is ranked #91 which is way behind A$M...Im not the only one who likes A$M, so it's not stupid...Last year was last year, dont judge sherman on 1st year with a bad team...

...dont bash me for making an informative statement...Your Cappers are not gods and only a few of them are even respectable...

TrojanTodd says:

09/03/09 04:59PM

Glad your back for a full season Mani!

Thanks for all your hard work.

We all appreciate you! (or at least we all should!)

TrojanTodd says:

09/07/09 03:04PM

Early season can be tuff. I think your work will prove out over the long haul. Let's get'em in week two!

Vegasbuster says:

09/02/09 10:09PM

Did you keep track of those which had a capper on the other side? How did it perform if you had 4-5 guys on one side and 1 guy on the other?

Vegasbuster says:

09/02/09 10:59PM

Good thing on the NC St pick, IMO.

The SEC has consistently shown dominance over the ACC in recent memory. I'd rather that game be a no-play instead of a consensus.

Vegasbuster says:

09/03/09 12:02AM

Manifesto, I was looking back at the old threads and it looked you included games with handicappers on both sides, especially in the bowl games.

Example:
UF-3 (8-2)

I assume the 8-2 was 8 cappers on Florida, 2 on OU..

Vegasbuster says:

09/04/09 12:11AM

I guess if you have too many cappers in this, they become the public?

ZonaCats says:

09/04/09 07:45PM

andydtc says:

09/03/09 12:13AM

I'm loving it. I'll be watching my DAWGS parying they show some fight against LSU, my head says this is an easy one, but my heart says GO DAWGS. GL to all.

andydtc says:

09/03/09 12:13AM

I'm loving it. I'll be watching my DAWGS parying they show some fight against LSU, my head says this is an easy one, but my heart says GO DAWGS. GL to all.

jimmydafreak says:

09/05/09 01:34PM

The easiest pick on the entire board (Bama) is not even on the radar screen? WOW!!!

BigNiner says:

09/06/09 11:45AM

BigNiner says:

09/03/09 11:02AM

Manifesto - great job last year and appreciate you doing this each week.

My only concern is that you are deviating a little too far with respect to the cappers you use. I have seen you willing to add cappers you are not familiar with and to be honest I think that is a recipe for disaster. If it ain't broke --- don't fix it!

Obviously, it's your show, but I'd hate to see a great thing go down the tubes for changing something that didn't need to, just so people don't feel left out.

Barnstorm says:

09/06/09 12:12PM

Consensus 3-4 with Colorado pending
Info leans 4-5

gasman33 says:

09/08/09 07:27PM

what was the final w-l for the consensus?

dragon4lucky says:

09/04/09 01:42AM

Great job you doing on here manifesto..we will get them back this Saturday. Your time and effort is much appreciated!

Bling says:

09/04/09 05:42PM

wuts this?

Bling says:

09/04/09 08:46PM

His father was a whore, so they never knew which mother was his. So all of them became his moms.

Lets talk more about post counts

Bling says:

09/04/09 08:47PM

consensus

Bling says:

09/04/09 07:49PM

got a lot of help from yo moms

Bling says:

09/07/09 03:08PM

Bling says:

09/07/09 05:18PM

RCB says:

09/07/09 05:20PM

Glad to you back, you and I both have been gone awhile!

powerade says:

09/03/09 11:14AM

quick question....

mani -did it work well last year to go with the consensus or against it?

powerade says:

09/03/09 12:21PM

Ice -whoa....whoa settle down lol

mani -thx good work, keep it up

Fishtaco02 says:

09/04/09 10:51AM

Yea I think the Oregon game surprised a ton of ppl. Still liking the picks for Saturday though, GL to all!

nostradamus12 says:

09/03/09 06:25AM

warning will robinson - it appears the 'informational only' plays may outperform the actual plays this week

, may want to do like the bowls and take 5-1 as consensus or whatever other bowl criteria were

nc1capper says:

09/04/09 06:18PM

bling, how in the world does one dude even post 26610 times --yikes--

Whodeysb09 says:

09/03/09 12:18AM

Maybe just 14

Whodeysb09 says:

09/03/09 12:03AM

Colorado sure picked up some steam

Whodeysb09 says:

09/03/09 12:05AM

Festo I want to compliment you on your game posting abilities as well because you post like me

Its size 12 bold

Like my pecker

Whodeysb09 says:

09/03/09 12:08AM

I'm in rare form tonight

csp says:

09/03/09 08:57AM

Great Job again Festo.. GL This season

kimats says:

09/06/09 02:26PM

19741974 says:

09/02/09 09:10PM

hey festo, i hear you on that mumbai story. i deal with a few indians in business and they tell me that the slumdog millionaire movie is nowhere close to how bad it really is. the stories of how they blind children on purpose is true they tell me. sounds like a god-awful hell hole of a place. i hope i never go there.

bibendi23 says:

09/03/09 09:30AM

PlacinUnits says:

09/04/09 05:37PM

People can hate on the consensus, but the numbers don't lie. Let's see how it rolls for a few weeks before we assume something is or isn't working.

My plays are posted. Nothing to controversial, though I question Penn State - I'm not going against it either.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100516535

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.

PlacinUnits says:

09/04/09 12:18PM

One or more of the collective group played AGAINST that team originally on the consensus list, therefore it is removed from the list, and placed on the second list - may still be a good bet, just not 100% agreement.

PlacinUnits says:

09/04/09 10:43AM

It's early...so, so early. Everyone is all down and out because a lot of folks took a loss last night. A lot of folks did win though too.

Here is to a profitable Saturday.

FYI, I will post tonight. Just so you know in advance, Manifesto, I am not a huge player of spreads in Week 1. I am more into totals...so I don't have a lot to offer in that regard.

I would like to take the Penn State play off the board...but haven't decided just yet.

PlacinUnits says:

09/04/09 07:56PM

Bling, you are my new favorite guy. A) I have been in this forum for college football for 3 years and never once seen you, and B) you have more posts then anyone.

And your response is that you owe is mom for all the help.

I need to follow you around a little.

PlacinUnits says:

09/04/09 09:22PM

Bling...give it some time.

Last year the consensus pick was money....very good percentage, one of the best on the site.

You missed it while hitting submit 18 times per day in the track and field forum.

PlacinUnits says:

09/05/09 03:15PM

I just took Michigan off my card. Bought it back - not messing around with Big 10 the rest of the day...

DoubleUp4Life says:

09/04/09 09:50PM

Where is My current Read on the

Consensus Picks (9/4/2009)

Colorado -10.5 (4) Like standard wager 4 Units

Illinois -7 (4) afraid they won't cover .. Close to taking Missouri if the Line crosses 7

Kentucky -14 (4) One of my 4 Large PLays ... Blowout by 27+ ??

Oregon +4 (6) Yep Small wager lost 2.2 Units

Penn St. -27 (5) staying away but my Chart has PSU winning by 38+

Stanford -17 (4) Large Wager ... Lets go Road Chalk

UAB -6 (4) another chart play but no wager for me

Information Only:

Arizona -13.5 (3) Large Play ... tuff trip for the Chipps

LSU -17.5 (3) Staying away ... maybe taking the Huskies if the line gets to 20+

Michigan -10.5 (3) On them -8...small

Minnesota -6.5 (6 - 1) Standard wager 3.5 Units

NC St -4 (6 - 1) Stayed away .. thank god My thursday could have been worse

Nebraska -21.5 (3) -20 for a standard wager

North Texas +17 (3) had it in a parlay wiyth the Over ... only Parlay I am betting this weekend ..

Texas -41 (3)

Texas A&M -14 (2) On it -10 -120 for a standard wager

Troy -6.5 (6 - 1) Ouchhh ..

14-0 what had Happened was ???

Lost 9+ Units ..Large wager

kaponofor3 says:

09/03/09 05:14PM

Manifesto

Ignore the haters, stay strong my man.

kaponofor3 says:

09/06/09 01:21PM

A so-so week means that the consensus should crush it next week once it has time to adjust

DAWGPRINT says:

09/04/09 07:34PM

Festo, are you sure about these new self appointed "cappers" you've added?

No disrespect, you study this stuff, I just wonder why some were added that clearly have no track record on here.

Thanks for your work bro

DAWGPRINT says:

09/06/09 06:15PM

Festo - great work this weekend.

Your insight helps! There are some that may follow blindly, but they need to find a way to assimilate a lot of information and make THEIR best choice.
You were money last year, here's to a great year!

DAWGPRINT says:

09/10/09 07:58AM

what cha got for week 2 Festo??

DAWGPRINT says:

09/03/09 06:08AM

Hey Festo, I remember the opinions going like 50-50 most of the time I followed them in weeks 10-12.
just fyi -
Thanks again for your hard work!

DAWGPRINT says:

09/02/09 09:04PM

FESTO! W/B my friend! Best of luck this season!

I can vouch for Nostra and Puck as being 2 of the best cappers here, I don't know where you people get this stuff. Nostra wasn't a tout during the bowls, wtf?
Festo, Hope you start a "NO COMMENT" thread, lol!
Safe trip my man!

DAWGPRINT says:

09/05/09 08:13AM

have a safe trip fest!

too bad u miss all the games

WendysRox says:

09/06/09 12:32PM

wow... it's a testament to the system that you have a shot at "going 4-4

after such a fucked up day of football... only bad pick was Illinois..."

Don't mean to pick on just you, cause it happens all the time. But, WHY THE F*CK do people talk about how smart they are when they win, but when they lose they say "man, that game was f*cked up!" or "the ref's totally had money on Team A" or "that catch was out of bounds". It's like they can't fathom the idea that they made a damn mistake. As you can see, it really irks me.... Just take your medicine and try to learn HOW you capped a game wrong... Blaming it on ref's coaches, wind, rain, etc. will not make you a better capper - it just makes you more of a whiney bitch.

Fathomable says:

09/03/09 06:59AM

welcome back bro

Miracle187 says:

09/02/09 09:32PM

When does the list for the week become final?

manifesto says:

09/02/09 09:55PM

We have two guys on A&M. Saying they are not sharp because they don't pick the game you like is stupid. I would not touch A&M until they prove something on the field this season. Sherman has proven to be a terrible college coach.

manifesto says:

09/02/09 09:58PM

Normally about an hour before the first game on Saturday. THis week will be unusual because I will be travelling Friday, so I will likely have a post around 11am CST on Friday, then hopefully I will be able to make a final post around 7am EST from Newark on my layover there.....

manifesto says:

09/02/09 09:59PM

I did not track the Information Only games last season, but I can go back and check. It is a good idea - I will track this season.

manifesto says:

09/02/09 10:47PM

Lost another consensus pick this morning (yes it is morning, I am 10 hours ahead of you boys). I am getting uncomfortable with all the changes, I know some people (including myself) have bet games already that have changed from consensus to non-consensus. Next week I will not post until game day of the first game. Sorry if anyone gets squeezed on this... The current consensus:

Consensus Picks (9/3/2009)

Colorado -10.5 (4)

Kentucky -14 (4)

Oregon +4 (6)

Penn St. -27 (5)

Stanford -17 (4)

UAB -6 (4)

Information Only:

Arizona -13.5 (3)

Illinois -7 (3)

LSU -17.5 (3)

Michigan -10.5 (3)

Minnesota -6.5 (6 - 1)

NC St -4 (5 - 1)

Nebraska -21.5 (3)

North Texas +17 (3)

Texas -41 (3)

Troy -6.5 (4 - 1)

manifesto says:

09/02/09 10:51PM

I did not keep track last year buster. I have some time on my hands today, I am going to go back to the threads last year and see if I can figure it out for you fellas....BOL

manifesto says:

09/02/09 11:53PM

From what I could find, Info Only games that had 4 or more on one side and one guy against went 5 - 2. Games with 3 cappers on one side were horrible at 6 - 12....

manifesto says:

09/03/09 12:18AM

Well that one leaves me speechless...

Obviously I will be posting in size 18 bold from now on...

manifesto says:

09/03/09 07:08AM

Nos I hate to change up what worked last year....I will likely bet Minny, Troy and NC St myself anyway....don't you sleep bro?

manifesto says:

09/03/09 12:22AM

Buster, if you read the first bowl thread, I changed it up a bit for the bowls because there were so few games spread out over three weeks compared to the regular season where you had 40 games a weekend. From that thread:

Consensus Requirement:

4 - 0

5 - 1

6 - 1

7 - 2

manifesto says:

09/03/09 10:36AM

9:30am update...

Consensus Picks (9/3/2009)

Colorado -10.5 (4)

Kentucky -14 (4)

Oregon +4 (6)

Penn St. -27 (5)

Stanford -17 (4)

UAB -6 (4)

Information Only:

Arizona -13.5 (3)

Illinois -7 (3)

LSU -17.5 (3)

Michigan -10.5 (3)

Minnesota -6.5 (6 - 1)

NC St -4 (5 - 1)

Nebraska -21.5 (3)

North Texas +17 (3)

Texas -41 (3)

Troy -6.5 (5 - 1)

manifesto says:

09/03/09 11:24AM

Take it easy Ice....powerade going with the consensus was 33-10 starting in week 8 through the bowls...

Ice - I am going to play the Minny game regardless and also Troy...lets see how it goes with the one against games for a couple of weeks...if they seem to hit, we can change it up...

manifesto says:

09/05/09 01:18PM

Yep sorry LSU was 4 - 0.....sorry I am a bit woosy from the flights...22 hours in the air...but back home....time to go drink beer and watch freaking college football!!!!!!

manifesto says:

09/05/09 01:19PM

Sorry typo on LSU....4 guys on....late addition

Consensus Picks (9/5/2009)

Colorado -10.5 (4)

Illinois -7 (4)

Kentucky -14 (4)

LSU -17.5 (4)

Oregon +4 (6)

Penn St. -27 (5)

Stanford -17 (4)

UAB -6 (4)

Information Only:

Arizona -13.5 (3)

Michigan -10.5 (3 - 1)

Minnesota -6.5 (6 - 1)

NC St -4 (6 - 1)

Nebraska -21.5 (3)

North Texas +17 (3) Nice job Tree, Badlands and Boom

Texas -41 (3)

Texas A&M -14 (2) Just for you QBoption

Troy -6.5 (6 - 1)

manifesto says:

09/05/09 06:52AM

7:00am update. This will be my last update today as I am about to get on a plane. Note LSU is back in consensus. Here is where we stand. Best of luck to everyone. I may update on Sunday if I get capper input for the games....

Consensus Picks (9/5/2009)

Colorado -10.5 (4)

Illinois -7 (4)

Kentucky -14 (4)

LSU -17.5 (3)

Oregon +4 (6)

Penn St. -27 (5)

Stanford -17 (4)

UAB -6 (4)

Information Only:

Arizona -13.5 (3)

Michigan -10.5 (3 - 1)

Minnesota -6.5 (6 - 1)

NC St -4 (6 - 1)

Nebraska -21.5 (3)

North Texas +17 (3) Nice job Tree, Badlands and Boom

Texas -41 (3)

Texas A&M -14 (2) Just for you QBoption

Troy -6.5 (6 - 1)

manifesto says:

09/04/09 10:38AM

9:30am update. Nothing new to report except Oregon getting clocked. Shooting for one more update on Saturday morning around 7am EST. Here is where we stand:

Consensus Picks (9/4/2009)

Colorado -10.5 (4)

Illinois -7 (4)

Kentucky -14 (4)

Oregon +4 (6)

Penn St. -27 (5)

Stanford -17 (4)

UAB -6 (4)

Information Only:

Arizona -13.5 (3)

LSU -17.5 (3)

Michigan -10.5 (3)

Minnesota -6.5 (6 - 1)

NC St -4 (6 - 1)

Nebraska -21.5 (3)

North Texas +17 (3) Nice job Tree, Badlands and Boom

Texas -41 (3)

Texas A&M -14 (2) Just for you QBoption

Troy -6.5 (6 - 1)

manifesto says:

09/03/09 09:13PM

The UAB pick is more about Rice than UAB....decimated on the offense in terms of losing starters at ALL key skill positions...

As for A&M, I live in Houston so I know a little just a bit about the Ags. I personally hope they have a great season - college football is just better in Texas when you have a real UT - A&M rivalry. But as far as betting money, they are going to have to show me something first. Two cappers on a game is OK, there are plenty of games that no one is on....

manifesto says:

09/03/09 09:47PM

Well Bibendi called both the first two games....nice job....

manifesto says:

09/03/09 11:02PM

10pm update. Well Bibendi outsmarted the field with his BG pick and Tree did the same with SC. Nice work guys. Kept them out of the consensus fortunately. Here is where we stand:

Consensus Picks (9/4/2009)

Colorado -10.5 (4)

Illinois -7 (4)

Kentucky -14 (4)

Oregon +4 (6)

Penn St. -27 (5)

Stanford -17 (4)

UAB -6 (4)

Information Only:

Arizona -13.5 (3)

LSU -17.5 (3)

Michigan -10.5 (3)

Minnesota -6.5 (6 - 1)

NC St -4 (6 - 1)

Nebraska -21.5 (3)

North Texas +17 (3) Nice job Tree, Badlands and Boom

Texas -41 (3)

Texas A&M -14 (2) Just for you QBoption

Troy -6.5 (6 - 1)

manifesto says:

09/06/09 06:20PM

What are you talking about Ice? You aint going anywhere....

Take the high road - dont bother responding to mindless drivel....

Penn St was a joke, they should have won by 45...I would make the same bets on all the consensus games again....

manifesto says:

09/06/09 06:28PM

Well we had a rough start to the season. Lets hope Colorado gets us to break even...

Consensus Picks (9/6/2009)

Colorado -10.5 (4)

Illinois -7 (4)

Kentucky -14 (4)

LSU -17.5 (3)

Oregon +4 (6)

Penn St. -27 (5)

Stanford -17 (4)

UAB -6 (4)

Information Only:

Arizona -13.5 (3)

Michigan -10.5 (3 - 1)

Minnesota -6.5 (6 - 1)

NC St -4 (6 - 1)

Nebraska -21.5 (3)

North Texas +17 (3) Nice job Tree, Badlands and Boom

Texas -41 (3)

Texas A&M -14 (2) Just for you QBoption

Troy -6.5 (6 - 1)

manifesto says:

09/07/09 11:13AM

Well a bad start to the season guys...back to work...lets get em this week...

manifesto says:

09/08/09 09:54PM

3 - 5

HuskieFan123 says:

09/06/09 01:39PM

I'd have to agree with Ice4Blood. Sounds like Ice4Blood obviously had Penn St. and Arizona. By f*cked up, he probably meant we were on the right side but got backdoored. Nothing about weather/refs was mentioned...

Manifesto, as always, you do excellent work. Thanks.

BigShotBill says:

09/03/09 07:48PM

Thanks Manifesto for keeping track of all the picks man. This has made me so much money. After the first week or 2 last yr I followed these picks alot of the time because I agreed with most of them. I won a lot of money off of these. These picks last yr must have hit atleast 75% of the time it seemed to me. I had been thinking about betting on Oregon all offseason and after reading this thread and others writeups on the game I bet the game ML. Lets hope we all Cash In on the DUCKS!

RyGuy1133 says:

09/03/09 09:22AM

Thanks for all the work festo!!

Hope your thursday is a wealthy one

BillyBarrou says:

09/04/09 08:30PM

Bling, how could you possibly know that nc1capper has more than one mom?

MR-Modano says:

09/02/09 10:00PM

If you are new to the site then you have no idea what Manifesto does for this forum. If you watched this go down last year then you know its on the money.

Thanks Manifesto for the work

Ice4Blood says:

09/03/09 11:30AM

i don't know... i still am always of the opinion that you don't want to fuck with what works... i think you were right to change it up for bowl games, but we both know what worked for the regular season... i think when you end up with 3-5 games per week that is going to work out better than ending up with 10-12 games per week... nobody is going to tail that many games, anyway...

Ice4Blood says:

09/03/09 11:17AM

he has already answered this question... why should he answer it twice when you can just spend 5 minutes looking through the thread and find the answer yourself?

i have to second Nos' sentiments to some extent... somewhat tragic that the Minnesota game becomes a no-consensus pick... but i guess that is the system in place, and you can't argue with past results...

Ice4Blood says:

09/05/09 08:12AM

i guess i won't get a response to this before games go off... just wondering what the deal is with LSU... only out of curiosity...

was a consensus, but then wasn't? and you currently have it listed with only 3 cappers... assuming that part is just a typo...

so we have 4 on it and none against, yes?

Ice4Blood says:

09/06/09 12:24PM

wow... it's a testament to the system that you have a shot at going 4-4 after such a fucked up day of football... only bad pick was Illinois...

Ice4Blood says:

09/04/09 06:24PM

in only 4 years, no less... 6500 posts per year... that's like 18 posts a day for 4 years...

i guess the secret is in the short-but-sweet posting style...

Ice4Blood says:

09/06/09 02:22PM

huskie... LSU (-14) and PSU, actually... i feel your pain with the Arizona pick, tho... Texas was another one that screwed alot of people...

moose day, afternoon...

Ice4Blood says:

09/06/09 01:34PM

tell you what... Festo, i am giving you this opportunity to remove me from this list of cappers... seems there are a lot who think you should... although many of them seem to think i persuaded you to put me on the list, somehow...

your call...

Ice4Blood says:

09/07/09 04:42AM

i know... was just messing around... and of course i knew you weren't gonna drop me... nothin' but love!

Ice4Blood says:

09/06/09 01:26PM

Wendy... are you honestly gonna say Penn St was the wrong side? i have looked over every game on my card, and watched almost every one of them live... i would bet every side the same again except Illinois, and know it is the right play... that's the truth... i had two horrible moose losses, and still went 6-5... you just seem like you want to hate...

have at it! but stay tuned...

YieldSread says:

09/04/09 03:34PM

If I'm not mistaken, this system went better than 70% last year? Read it, bet it, don't bet it. Start your own thread with your own locks.

Thanks for taking this on again this year. Don't drink that nasty water over there and get home safe.

lewissuperpimp1 says:

09/04/09 11:56AM

TRoy oregon and nc state were consensus picks early and now only one was? how does that work?

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