marksteg22's Blog
Posted Sunday, February 08, 2009 01:46 PM
Play of the Day Record 7-2
N. Iowa -1 v Creighton
Not a big write up here. Im going with Northern I owa because they have won 11 in a row and covered in 9 of them. These teams played in January at Creighton and N. Iowa won by 3 as 11.5 point underdogs. Despite playing great basketball recently, the Panthers still aren't getting much credit. ESPN's "experts have Creighton getting in the tourney as an at large bid over N.Iowa despite losing to them at home. Take the Panthers at home.
N.Iowa 73 - Creighton 66
Posted Friday, February 06, 2009 04:18 AM
Play of the Day Record 7-1
Cornell -7.5 @ Princeton
These two ivy league teams enter this matchup unbeaten in conference play this year. Princeton has won 5 in a row while Cornell has come out on top of their last 9. Cornell began the year with some key injuries and were forced to play some younger guys. Now that they are healthy they've added depth to their lineup that was already dominant compared to other ivy league teams. Cornell has won 19 straight conference games and during their current 9 game win streak they are beating opponents by an average of 22.5 points per game. Princeton relys on their defense to keep them in games mostly because they can't score as they rank last in the league in scoring offense. Cornell's guards should be able to spread the Tigers out with their perimeter shooting and get some open looks underneath. The Big Red will run away with this one, take Cornell.
Cornell 75 - Princeton 61
Posted Thursday, February 05, 2009 02:01 PM
Play of the Day Record 6-1
Citadel +5 @ App. State
The Citadel comes into this matchup on a 5 game win streak that includes two blow out victories against conference foes Samford and W. Carolina. They are 6-0-1 ATS on the road this year where they have covered by an average of 10 points. As underdogs this year they are 10-2-1 ATS and cover by an average of 7.5 points. App State has lost 3 of their last 5 home games including an embarassing loss to UNC Greensboro in OT. In their last home game they almost blew a 12 point lead with two and a half minutes left against another conference stinker Furman. As long as the Citadel can pull a few offensive boards and get some second chance shots i think they have a good shot at winning this game. If it comes down to free throws, the Citadel has a huge advantage. Take the Dogs as dogs.
Citadel 68 - App. State 64
Posted Wednesday, February 04, 2009 12:54 PM
Play of the Day record 6-0
Post # 7
Northeastern -8 @ William & Mary
Another road favorite tonight with reverse line movement. The Huskies come into this game on top of the CAA with a 10-1 record in conference while W&M sits at the bottom with a 1-10 record. These teams played earlier this year with NE coming out on top by a score of 60-44. NE is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games with an average cover of 10 points. They are 3-1 ATS as road favorites this year. W&M on the other hand are 1-5-1 ATS at home this year and have lost their last 5 home games by an average of 9 points. All 5 of those teams that beat W&M lost to Northeastern earlier this year. In the Tribe's last 14 halves of basketball they have only outscored an opponent once (led Hofstra 17-15 at halftime). Northeastern is a veteran team with solid rebounders and a tough defense. They received top 25 votes by the AP last week and they are determined to prove they are an elite mid major team. Huskies roll tonight, take Northeastern.
Northeastrn 64 - William & Mary 46
Posted Tuesday, February 03, 2009 02:41 PM
Play of the Day record: 4-0
Akron -8 @ E.Michigan
Im going with my hometown Zips tonight even though everyone is already on them and there is reverse line movement and the trend says to go with the home team in this matchup. Eastern is a horrible team all around and I think Akron is starting to get things to come together with this young team. The Zips are 3-0 ATS as a road favorite this year. Since starting their conference schedule, Akron has not been outscored once in the second half. Over that 8 game span they are outscoring their opponents by an average of 8 points in the second half. Eastern on the other hand has not won a half of basketball in their last 4 games. Roos Roll here, take Akron.
Akron 68 - E. Michigan 52
Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2009 04:26 PM
Buffalo -1 @ Western Michigan
No need for a lengthy write up as it seems everyone on here loves Buffalo which kind of scares me but the public has been right alot recently. The biggest reason I like Buffalo is their experience and ability to close out games. The Bulls have been winning second halves and close games where as W.Mich has shown their youth by not playing well in the second half. Western has played better lately but is was against weak, poor shooting teams. Buffalo comes in with tons of confidence and they get their top rebounder back after missing a game due to a death in his family. Buffalo is on a mission this year to prove they are a top MAC team (kind of like their football team) and they are beating up teams that used to bully them in the past. Buffalo guard Rodney Pierce was last weeks MAC player of the week. Bulls roll, take Buffalo.
Buffalo 71 - W. Michigan 63
Posted Sunday, January 25, 2009 02:02 AM
Post #4 (3-0 so far)
St. Bonaventure +14.5 @ Dayton
St. Bonaventure is a Jekyll and Hyde team this year. While they do not play very well at home, they are perfect on the road. The Bonnies are 7-0 as visitors with an even more impressive 5-0 ATS road record. In their 5 ATS wins on the road they are covering by an average of 14 points! Their average road victory is 10 points, yet they have only been favored once. In Bona's two conference road games they covered by an average of 12 points. Dayton on the other hand has played down to their opponents level all year, especially at home. They rely heavily on their strong defense and seem to have a knack for playing harder and making free throws when they need to, but they rarely do it for an entire game. Dayton is 2-5 ATS at home and they are not covering there by an average of 5 points per game. In conference they are 1-3 ATS and not covering by an average of 7.5 points per game. They should have lost thursday as a 5.5 point favorite but GW forgot that you are only allowed to have 5 guys on the court. Also, they squeaked out a 1 point victory against Fordham as a 20 point favorite last week at home. I think the line in this game is high due to Dayton's pretty 17-2 record and also because of Bona's lackluster teams over the past few years, but Dayton's wins have been anything but pretty and Bona looks like they may be turning things around. Take the Bonnies.
Dayton 68 - St. Bonave...
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Posted Saturday, January 24, 2009 03:13 AM
3rd Post (2-0 so far)
Florida State +1.5 @ Virginia
Florida State is coming off of a road loss to Miami where they blew an early lead partly because Miami shot the lights out but also because they had a defensive meltdown. FSU won all of the games that they were supposed prior to that one by playing very tough defense. They have solid senior leadership in Toney Douglas so he should get this team back to where they need to be. Virginia on the other hand has lost their last 3 and does not really have a significant win all season. They are a young group who does not play the best defense and as of late has been shooting poorly. Both teams played Maryland last week with two completely different results. Florida State defeated Maryland in an overtime thriller while Virginia was handled easily by the Terps until late in the game when they made it respectable with some garbage time buckets. Virginia has only covered one time this year at home (1-4) and that was against Brown. FSU is 3-1-1 on the road this season ATS and 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Take the Noles.
Florida State 72 - Virginia 64
Posted Friday, January 23, 2009 01:26 PM
Post # 2 (1-0 so far)
Santa Clara -8.5 vs. San Francisco
Both teams have played the same 4 opponents in their last 4 games with the only difference being that Santa Clara played played St. Mary's away while SF played them at home. During those 4 games SF covered 0 times while Santa Clara covered twice. Santa Clara lost a heart breaker at St. Mary's in a game where there were 4 lead changes in the last 42 seconds. They also lost a thriller to Portland after coming back from down 17. SF on the other hand was blown out by both of those teams. Santa Clara blew a late lead against San Diego and lost by 5 while SF was never in the game against them and lost by 15. Both Santa Clara and SF were blown out against Gonzaga. At this point in the season the two teams are heading in opposite directions. Santa Clara is a young team that suffered 3 close conference losses and they are back home trying to get things back on track with some home games against much weaker opponents than they faced in their previous 4 games. SF had early success this year but has since been blown out in all of their WCC games. Broncos down the Dons 66 - 52. Take Santa Clara.
Posted Wednesday, January 21, 2009 10:31 AM
Xavier -12.5 @ St. Bonaventure
The Bonnies are plaing their worst basketball at home this year posting a horrible 0-5-1 ATS record. Xavier on the other hand is a perfect 4-0 on the road ATS. In Xavier's 4 road games they are covering by an average of 7 points per game while St.Bon is not covering by an average of 8 points per game in their 6 home games. Xavier has won the last 7 times these two teams have faced eachother with an average margin of victory by 20 points. Their lowest margin of victory over that 7 year peiod is 13 points. Take the X-Men.
Xavier 78 - St. Bon 58