mfpreach's Blog

Tuesday's Early Picks

By mfpreach | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, September 15, 2009 02:24 AM   21 comments
After getting owed on MNF I got some baseball picks.

Cubs Zambrano @ -117 - Zambrano is picking up his game. They are playing at home and Gallardo's ERA is lowish it has been steadily increasing over the previous months.

Atlanta Under 8.5 - Hanson is an ace and the Mets can't hit shit.

Tampa - Niemann -134 : Berken is straight up turrible as Barkley likes to say and Niemann is going to win Rookie of the year. Tampa has been sliding but they get it done with Niemann at the helm.

Cleveland Over 9 - Carmona is terrible and Baker isn't anything to write home about. The indians also score a lot.

I will lay enough to win $100 on all these games.
Let me know what y'all think.


21 comments
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mfpreach says:
09/15/09 02:29AM
I would like to add Cincy @ +150 . Oswalt appears to be injured. His last two starts are abysmal and cincy isn't playing too badly. Take the value @ home.
Coogs77 says:
09/15/09 02:33AM
What do you think about SF?  It seems like Zito can pull it off after such a big win on Monday.
mfpreach says:
09/15/09 02:49AM
+120 is a good value on Zito, it just depends which Zito shows up. Last start was Pre-Allstar break Zito. Whereas the starts before that one were cy youngish.

Its really a toss up though, I would fade this game personally but if I were going to lay cash on it I would put it on Zito.
mfpreach says:
09/15/09 02:51AM
Wow I just noticed that Matsuzaka is starting for Boston against Lackey. Lay a huge bet on Lackey @ +107, Dice-K is gonna get hammered.
mfpreach says:
09/15/09 04:41AM
Officially Locked in:

LAA Lackey ML
CHC Zambrano ML
ATL Under 8.5
TAM Niemann ML


D-Town says:
09/15/09 07:46AM
bluecrew08 says:
09/15/09 08:40AM
TwistedMath says:
09/15/09 08:54AM
I didn't look at most of the games you played.  I tend to cross them off the board if both teams are eliminated from playoff contention.  The real teams sometimes don't show up.

The only one I handicapped on your list was the Cle / Min game.  You're right that Carmona will probably get shelled.  But I disagree with ya on the Indians offense.  In their last 5 they've scored 3, 0, 13, 1 & 2 runs.  The 13 run game was against David Huff who sports a 6.22 ERA for the year.  I wouldn't bet the over if you're planning on Cleveland to score a lot.  It probably won't happen.  If you wanna play this game the run line is probably the better option.  But I only lean that way slightly.

I think an above poster mentioned the SF play at +120.  There's a lotta value in that number.  The Giants have to sweep the Rocks if they wanna keep their playoff hopes alive.  They sure as hell showed up last night.  The Rockies have really tanked it in the offense department.  I say Zito goes at least 6 giving up maybe 2 or 3.  After that the stellar SF pen shuts the Rockies down.  I'm all over this one.
nmcnabb says:
09/15/09 08:55AM

Check your stats on Baker.  He's 7-0 with a 3.04 ERA in his last 11 starts.  Carmona's control is his issue....so whomever is behind the plate should be taken into consideration.

TwistedMath says:
09/15/09 09:04AM
I just noticed your Angels play as well.  I'm gonna bet this one on the same side you are.  Not sure how much though.

Lackey has been lights out lately.  There's no doubt about that.  I question two things though. 1.  The Angels offense, which has been slightly below average.  I do think a game vs Dice-K is just what they need though.  2.  The Angels bullpen, which is ranked 24th in the league. 

My worse case scenario in this one would be, Angels bats stay below average and make Dice-K look good.  Lackey has a great game and keeps it close.  The Angels pen gives up something late and Boston walks away with the win.

I'm gonna say that the Angels bats get back on track though.  I'm probably gonna lay -1.5 on the road with Lackey.  Love betting the run line when I'm the visitor as the visiting team is usually more aggressive in the close ones.
target_9 says:
09/15/09 09:28AM
GL today!!!
MLBguru says:
09/15/09 10:35AM
I think people need to be careful going against Dice-K tonight.  I expect a gem from him.

 

 

TwistedMath says:
09/15/09 10:37AM


Why?  Just curious.
MLBguru says:
09/15/09 10:42AM
Because he is still a top notch pitcher that obviously suffered from injuries or something of that nature.

 

He can be lights out, he was amazing in the WBC and then fell apart.

 

He is probably well rested, and ready to go tonight IMO.  I usually like to back pitchers in these spots....good pitchers that go down and come back months later.

 

Purcey was a good example last night.

MLBguru says:
09/15/09 10:48AM
Plus LA is 3-13 when Lackey pitches against Boston.

 

This is also a bad spot for LA fatigue wise.  3rd city in 3 days.  Late game in LA, then fly to NY for one frickin game, then to Boston albeit not very far.  Also 12 straight days without a day off.

 

Boston had that double header but had the day off to recoup.

TwistedMath says:
09/15/09 10:51AM
Like your insight guru.  That's a great point.  I'm on the Angels because of Lackey though.  If his stellar pitching continues they should be able to win this one by 2 or more.  Dice-K might return to form.  I'm just hoping it's not close enough to form to shut down the Angel bats.
TwistedMath says:
09/15/09 10:52AM
2nd point taken.
NoWorries21 says:
09/15/09 11:04AM

I think this is a good spot for Dice K as well. If Angels can only score 3 off of Joba actually may have only been 2. Plus both in a race with Texas so neither team will be taking day off. Just look for fatigue out of LaA
mfpreach says:
09/15/09 02:43PM
Thanks for your insight guys.
thatsagoodone says:
09/15/09 03:04PM
I'm kinda like Z tonight, but not quite sure yet. gl with the plays.
mfpreach says:
09/16/09 12:44AM
Tuesday's Results: 2-2 -$36

LAA Lackey ML  
CHC Zambrano ML
ATL Under 8.5
TAM Niemann ML

I can't believe Niemann fucked me over so bad, I can understand the Angels but not Niemann with a 5 run lead on the Orioles for fucks sakes.



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User: mfpreach
Joined: September 2009
Location: British Columbia
Team: Seattle Seahawks
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