mmeiselman731's Blog

Posted Friday, September 13, 2013 06:56 PM

DVOA Formula Picks

My picks are made using a formula based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric and injury adjustments based on the stats at Pro Football Focus.

Week 1 was a losing week, but week 2 got off to a good start with Jets getting the cover. Here's the rest of my week 2 picks:

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +8
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +3.5
NEW YORK GIANTS +4.5


Posted Friday, March 29, 2013 02:07 AM

Wolves with value again!

This line is simply way too high. Everyone should lock in Wolves +8 against the Thunder. Again, this a healthy Minny team, and OKC has been less than stellar on the road this year. I would even give a slight edge to the Wolves to win this game outright, but just to be safe, I'll be taking the points. Expect a close game in this one and a cover for the Wolves.

Posted Wednesday, March 27, 2013 04:13 PM

The Wolves are dogs against the Lakers!?

This line is up there with the softest of the season. The Lakers are a pretty terrible road team, and Minnesota has a really solid rotation now that Budinger, Pekovic, and Kirilenko are healthy. Sure, Gasol is back, but World Peace is out so that's negligible. Even if Kobe were 100%, I'd still pick the Wolves to win this game outright. But with the bad ankle, I'd honestly be surprised to see the Lakers win this one, much less cover the 5 points. Everyone should be on the Wolves tonight.

Posted Sunday, November 04, 2012 12:09 PM

WEEK 9 FORMULA PICKS

BEARS AT TITANS

Bears -3.5

-and-

Under 43.5

projected score: CHI 22.9 - TEN 13.7


*Formula created using DVOA from Football Outsiders and other advanced metrics


Posted Friday, October 19, 2012 04:31 PM

WEEK 7 PICKS (NEW FORMULA)

Pick are documented on my blog at www.TERPretation.com

SEATTLE +8 (WIN)

RAVENS +6.5
projection: HOU 24.1 - BAL 21.8
value: 4.2 points

BUCANEERS +3
projection: TB 25.3 - NO 22.2
value: 6.1 points

*2 unit bet
LIONS-BEARS under 47.5
projection: CHI 24.5 - DET 16.5
value: 6.5 points


Posted Thursday, October 18, 2012 02:10 PM

SEAHAWKS +8 and the rest of this week's pickspo

I mentioned my mathematical formula (using DVOA from Football Outsiders and a few other stats) in a previous thread. Here are my picks for this week:

SEAHAWKS +8
projected score: SF 21.3 - SEA 17.5
value: 4.2 points

BUCANEERS +3
projected score: TB 25.3 - NO 22.2
value: 6.1 points

BEARS-LIONS under 47.5 (x2)
projected score: CHI 24.5 - DET 16.5
value: 6.5 points

possible add:
RAVENS +6.5
projected score: HOU 24.1 - BAL 21.8
value: 4.2 points


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