According to all published indications, John Smoltz is done with his AAA Pawtucket starts and will be activated by the Red Sox at some point in the middle of this week. This will leave the Red Sox with seven above-average major league arms to compete for the five available spots in their starting rotation. Having good rotation depth is one thing...but having too many solid arms is another matter entirely. BTW...I've included Clay Buchholz in the list of seven arms, although in all senarios he will remain in AAA as depth and trade bait (must be nice).
I'm going to list out some of their options and give my opinion on what they will do. Please pass along your opinions or ideas. When I list guys as "trade" I
do realize that trades are difficult to pull off, but we at least have to put these guys in some sort of category.
Option 1 -
Rotation: Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Penny. Smoltz is recalled and assigned to the bullpen as a middle/long releiver. Buchholz remains in AAA.
Option 2 -
Rotation: Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Penny, Smoltz. Dice-K is placed on the 15-day DL with some sort of strain in his back to buy time to pull off a trade of either Penny or Smoltz. Buchholz remains in AAA.
Option 3 -
Rotation: Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Penny, Smoltz. Wakefield is shipped to the bullpen as a long-relief arm and Buchholz remains in AAA.
Option 4 -
Rotation: Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Penny, Wakefield, Smoltz. The Sox temporarily go with a six-man rotation and keep Buchholz in AAA.
Option 5 -
Rotation: Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Penny, Wakefield, Smoltz, Buchholz. The Sox go with an unprecedented seven-man starting rotation.
Option 6 -
Rotation: Lester, Matsuzaka, Penny, Wakefield, Smoltz. Beckett is traded to acquire a front-line SS to totally fill their line-up for another championship run in October. Buchholz remains in AAA.
Option 7 -
Rotation: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Matsuzaka, Smoltz. Penny is traded for a depth infielder or another bat off the bench in case Papi goes cold again. Wakefield is moved to the bullpen for long-relief.
Option 8 -
Rotation: Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Smoltz. Penny is traded and Buchholz remains in AAA.
The possibilities this week are endless. The Sox have to do something with Clay Buchholz...either trade the kid or get his ass in your rotation. The only way they will be able to get him in their rotation is to ship out Brad Penny (who looks like the horse he was two years ago) and ship Wakefield to the bullpen (although he has been, arguably, their 2nd or 3rd most reliable starter this season). They can't invest all of this time and money on Smoltz and have him rot away in long-relief, and although Dice-K has been their worst starter this season there is no way they will trade him and fully lose all of their $86 trillion signing fee they paid to get him. Trading Beckett could definitely be an interesting option, although it may be too high risk in case Smoltz and Penny both get hurt again.
With all of these options, I'm sure the Sox will take the easy way out and go with Option 3. Wakefield has shown that he is willing to do whatever the Sox ask him to do (includuding multiple trips to the bullpen) and Buchholz will keep dominating in AAA. Option 8 of simply trading Penny and sliding Smoltz into his spot in the rotation is also a viable option.
With all of this pitching depth and fresh off another sweep of the Yankees the Sox are still listed behind the Yanks at +400 to win the World Series, +225 to win the American League, and even with the Yanks at +110 to win the AL East.
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