mudshark's Blog

New Halftime System

By mudshark | View all Posts
Posted Monday, November 16, 2009 11:07 AM   25 comments

I have developed a new formula that determines strong halftime plays in Football and Basketball.  I started my research on this three months ago; and I have back tedted my formula for a three year period for football and basketball, pro and college.  After deciding to test it real-time starting 30 days ago, my system is 72%.

Being a 30-year handicapper, I have always based my handicapping on gathering as much current information as I could.  But, in the sports world, we all know how fast that information changes; and, we never know if the information is true or just a media spin.

Then I started to think - what is the most reliable inforamtion you can get - ACTUAL GAME FLOW.  This lead me to my 2nd-Half System.  What better, and more reliable, stats, info, and game-flow than the actual first half of the game you are wagering on!!!

For instance, yesterday, my system put out Clippers +5, Rockets +5.5, and Under (Laker-Rockets).  All winning plays.

I am going to share my plays for the next few days, in the spirt of helping out fellow cappers during this brutal football season.  Any feedback is welcome.

It's all about the $$$ !!

25 comments
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KMang says:
11/16/09 11:54AM
kevin2565 says:
11/16/09 01:29PM
sabia says:
11/16/09 02:14PM
730champ says:
11/16/09 05:20PM
  hope this works out the other quarter plays seem not to be going to well
mudshark says:
11/16/09 09:06PM

System Play tonight - Bucks +4 - 2nd Half.

Note the time of these posts.  These plays will be posted as soon as 2nd half line is posted for each system game.

KMang says:
11/17/09 09:34AM
That would be 1-0.....good start. 
mudshark says:
11/17/09 05:46PM

Just for the record, I have been playing this system since October 15th, and my record is 38 and 15 for 72%.  I told myself I was going to try it out for 30 days; and, if successful (> 54%), I was going to start posting. Started last night:

Bucks +4 - 2nd half

Again, to follow this thread, you have to be able to act quick, with halftime lasting, on average, 15 - 20 minutes. Most reputable on-line books get the 2nd half line out within a minute of the 1st half ending. I've got everything set up on my Iphone; and I even have an app that I downloaded that notifies me the second the 1st half ends. I'm pretty sure this app is available for a lot of different cell phones.  I then plug my 1st half data into my system, get the play, and go right to my online book and place the bet, all within 5 minutes.  When multiple games end the 1st half right near each other, I need only 5 minutes to get everything analyzed, which leaves me 10 - 15 minutes to place my wagers. I haven't had any problems yet. During College Basketball season, I am going to have someone helping me imput the 1st-half data during the heavy-schedule days (Mon,Tues, Wed, Sat).

For Money Management, I am basically using a modified Kelly system, which I beleive is the best system out there.  I read "Fortune's Formula", the complete history behind the Kelly system - extremely interesting to me, only because I am a handicapping geek.

usakangy says:
11/17/09 06:58PM
Good luck.  Looks promising! 
bamboo08 says:
11/17/09 07:28PM
Good Luck. Do we have to wait all day long like yesterday just for one (1) second half in NBA. This is ......
mudshark says:
11/17/09 08:44PM
My system determines the plays.  I have several filters that I use.  Some days, I have had 3 - 4 plays, some days none.  Give me 1 paly a day, winning 70%, I'll take that all year long.
mudshark says:
11/17/09 08:48PM
System Play, Nets -2 2nd Half
mudshark says:
11/17/09 08:52PM
Miami Heat -6 - 2nd Half
mudshark says:
11/17/09 09:07PM
Gonzaga )NCAA Basketball) +9 - 2nd half
mudshark says:
11/17/09 11:07PM

Kansas -5 - 2nd half

730champ says:
11/17/09 11:16PM

 

 

x2

bigkeith says:
11/18/09 12:27AM

Hey Mudshark, Would you care to explain the modifed kelly system or at least give us a link to review it at ????

 

Thanks

BK

mudshark says:
11/18/09 01:01AM
0-3-1 tonight - the curse of the public post.  I am staying with it.
mudshark says:
11/18/09 01:06AM

bigkeith,

A great place to start learning about the Kelly system is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion.  In this article, click on the link that brings you to the Simultaneous Event Kelly Calculator at SBRforum.com

 

the_vig says:
11/18/09 01:10AM
This obviously looks promising despite the bad night tonight.  Keep it up, I've very intrigued by this.
mudshark says:
11/18/09 08:16PM
Miami Heat -2, 2nd Half
mudshark says:
11/18/09 08:47PM
Celtics -8.5, 2nd half
mudshark says:
11/19/09 10:54AM
Last night - Actually got 1.5 when I placed the bet on Heat, so 2 - 0 last night.  Realize some may have gotten Heat -2.  You will find that lines move a lot, real quick, with lots of action at halftime.
mudshark says:
11/19/09 09:47PM
Spurs -4.5 2nd half
PatrickBateman says:
11/25/09 07:04PM

What happened to this?

 

awbasa says:
11/25/09 08:04PM
What is the system? like what r the variables that determine if its a play or not?
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