naesiy's Blog

Posted Thursday, November 10, 2011 03:34 AM

Thoughts on Houston

First time starting a thread, but I've gotten so much good information from this forum that I'd like to give some back.  Hopefully, it's good information. 

Anyways, I see everyone and their mama on Houston to cover against Tulane.  Houston is a 72% covers consensus.  At first glance, I immediately said Houston will smoke Tulane.  But upon further review some things stuck out.

First off, 34.5 is ALOT of points for a team with no defense to be giving on the road, especially one with no defense who knows their offense will win the game for them and might not care.  Prior to last week, Houston has not been blowing everyone out on the road.  They beat UNT by 25, LaTech by 1, UTEP by 7.  I actually laid off of Houston last week because of this and they surprised me by covering.  On the year, outside of FCS teams, the lowest Houston has allowed opposing offenses was 3 by ECU, 13 by UAB.  Beyond that, every other team has scored between 20-35 points against them.

Now let's look at last weeks cover.  They won by 43.  With ten minutes left in the 4th, they were only up by 29.  By then, Keenum was pulled.  They had the final number because of a pick 6.  Then, off a drive that started at the UAB 46 because UAB's back up QB couldn't drive the team, Houston's back up scored a TD. Again, before this, Houston was barely covering, and maybe even losing depending on y... [More]

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