Posted Friday, March 28, 2008 03:03 PM
Game: Phoenix at Philadelphia (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Philadelphia +2.5 (-110)
The public loves the high-scoring team, and the odds-makers react in kind. The Phoenix Suns are among the highest scoring teams in the NBA, and with that comes a lot of action backing them. The Sixers have been doormats in the NBA for quite a while now, and with that comes no respect. Now the facts and their associated value. The Sixers are a completely changed team over their last 24 games. They are 19-5 while the Suns are 14-10. If this was 24 games into the season, think for a second what this line would be? Philly would be the favorite at home. So what has changed for the Sixers? Why are they so good now? The first 44 games they went 19-23-2 ATS, scoring 100 points just 11 times (25%). Their last 28 games, they have reached the century mark 18 times or 64.2% of the time. Their offense produced 92.9 ppg over the first 44 games versus 105.8 ppg in the last 28. So did they decide to play uptempo? No. Their defense and points allowed is the same! They have come together offensively, and have become a good team. Those 18 games where they scored 100 points, they are 17-1 SU and the game they lost, they covered! The total is set at 218 for this game, indicating Philadelphia is likely to score 108, so 100 is certainly a high percentage opportunity. The reson they are 17-1 when they score 100 is they are now a high scoring team that also plays defense. That is not t... [More]
Posted Friday, March 28, 2008 01:16 PM
1 Unit on Stanford/Texas OVER 135
Texas is 6-0 OVER in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. Stanford is 10-3 OVER in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season and 9-0 OVER in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games this season. Stanford is 8-1 OVER in all road tournament games over the last 3 seasons and 13-4 OVER NCAA tournament games since 1997. Stanford is known for its defense but it has really picked up its scoring in the NCAA Tournament averaging 79.5 ppg. The Horns are scoring 74.5 ppg in the Dance. We?ll take the OVER here as these team are just too talented offensively to stifle one another. Bet the OVER.
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Posted Friday, March 28, 2008 12:31 PM
1 Unit on Davidson/Wisconsin Under 126
Wisconsin is an unders machine with its ability to defend. The Badgers have gone under the number in 8 of their last 9 games. Wisconsin is 11-0 UNDER in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games since 1997, 6-0 UNDER when playing with 5 or 6 days rest this season, 21-8 UNDER as a favorite this season. Davidson is 17-9 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins this season, 12-3 UNDER versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% since 1997, and 20-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Under.
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Posted Friday, March 28, 2008 12:27 PM
1 Unit on Kansas -11.5
Villanova is not deep enough to be able to run and gun with Kansas. The 12-seed Wildcats have made a nice little run, but it all stops here. Kansas has now won 9 straight games and 6 of its last 8 ATS. Villanova is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season and 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more this season. This shows you the inconsistency of Villanova as it is unable to sustain championship-caliber play. Kansas is 11-2 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons and 13-6 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins this season. The Jayhawks have been playing with a chip on their shoulder after being taken out in the Elite Eight last season. We'll take Kansas here as the Jayhawks put another big time beating on an opponent.
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Posted Thursday, March 27, 2008 05:55 PM
1 Unit on West Virginia -1
West Virginia is one of the best ATS NCAA Tourney teams we have ever seen. Oddsmakers have rightly favored the Mountaineers following impressive wins over stories team Arizona and Duke. Coach Huggins has his boys believing and I like them to continue on to the round of 8. WVU is 12-0 ATS in all NCAA tournament games since 1997, 8-1 ATS in post-season tournament games over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 2 seasons, and 17-5 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. I like the more talented team from a tougher conference to prevail here.
Posted Thursday, March 27, 2008 05:52 PM
1* on UCLA UNDER 133.5
We will take the UNDER 133.5 points here where Western Kentucky is a perfect 8-0 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season. Not once has Western Kentucky gone over the total in this spot. UCLA is 27-13 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons. UCLA is 14-3 UNDER when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament since 1997. UCLA and Texas A&M combined for just 100 points in a 51-49 Bruins? victory in the Round of 32. Western Kentucky has been scoring at will, but the points won?t come very easy against a UCLA defense that is allowing just 52.4 points per game over their last 5 games. Take the UNDER 133.5 points.
Posted Thursday, March 27, 2008 05:51 PM
1 Unit on Washington State/UNC Under 143
There's no doubt that the Cougars will play good enough defense on Carolina to keep this one under the number. Washington State has gone under the number in each of its first two tourney games, holding its opponents to 40.5 ppg. Washington State knows its only chance to beat Carolina is to slow the game down. The Cougars have stuck to this style of play through and through the past two seasons and I don?t see them deviating from it now. Washington State 18-6 UNDER after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons, 28-10 UNDER in non-conference games since 1997, and 28-14 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive unders since 1997. Take the Under.
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