nc1capper's Blog

Posted Thursday, July 04, 2013 09:31 AM

Hot dog contest ,,,,value play

Well with Joey at -1000 at most shps there is no value there , sure , he will win comfortably but the risk / reward is just not there, it's a PASS here , 
Now, as far as the total goes , we see real value in the OVER here for several reasons 
1) huge crowd driven by extra media coverage from hurricane Sandy, 
2) sunny skies - 65 per cent humidity is a slight concern but the sunny skies and huge media throng should prevail and inspire Joey 
3) big fella put 68 on the board last year  - 
4)myself , and several others had this one capped at 65 to 66
Add it all up and you have definite value here
It' all in on the OVER at 63.5 
Have a great fourth everybody 


Posted Sunday, March 11, 2012 09:26 AM

FSU is the play in ACC title game

No final word on John Henson yet. Without him I would send the Noles out as the faves.

With the current number posted at UNC - 6.5 looks like tons of value for the dog.

Big UNC fan here,,and have been recharging for the most part since football ended but this one looks like lots of value for the underdog FSU.

Good luck today guys

Posted Tuesday, February 08, 2011 09:01 AM

UNC vs. Duke - Line discussion

This one is going to be huge with the new and improved (drew less) Tar Heels playing at a high level--my prediction for the total is 149.5  with Duke going out as a 8.5-point fave--how do you guys see this line and total coming out?

Posted Friday, February 27, 2009 07:37 AM

Bad beat or bad bounce?

As Gamblers we all know that the late three can sway the out come of a game on a regular basis. With that knowledge comes that fact that things tend to balance themselves out, not only in gambling, but life in general.
 
After watching Wake's last second three clang off on sunday nite with the cover in site that very thought came to mind, ,,,things balance out. When the same last second three went air  borne for the noles in the final seconds of the FSU - BC game it appeared balance was indeed on the way, once again the ball bounces out, and the last second cover is foiled.
 
As the final seconds begin to dwindle away last nite out on the west coast for washington - arizona state  everything appears to be in order for a huskie cover. Well, of course the late three rears its ugly head once again and the last second bomb banks in, finally a late three, only this time it costs me the cover. Three games of the last 10 on my work card have come down to a last second three going in , two misses cost me the cheddar early and of course the banker last nite that went in burned me again.
 
Bad beat, bad bounce or just the breaks of the game, perhaps a combo of the three. What ever  the reason, this grizzled ol capper is seeking balance, and the good news is balance is on the way.


Posted Thursday, February 05, 2009 01:37 PM

Wright - Williams: Vegas in the spring time

This looks like it might have all the makings of a classic matchup with lots of interesting variables. The Punisher is an up and comer for certain, and Winky, of course, is more than comfortable in the role of the well traveled veteran. With Williams "Biggest" win somewhat tainted by the recent happenings in the Margrito camp and the long layoff for The Winkster who knows what could unfold come this spring in Vegas. Can Paul continue his rise up the ladder, or will the crafty Winky be able to turn back both father time and the rapid fire delivery of the Punisher, will youth be served or will the old gray beard dig deep one more time. With the gorgeous Mandalay Bay playing host (and fond memories of the world class seafood buffet still fresh in my mind) I cant think of a better reason, or season to be headed west for fight night.


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User: nc1capper
Joined: August 2007
Location: North Carolina
Team: North Carolina Tar Heels
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