oddsbuster's Blog

Posted Tuesday, May 22, 2012 02:06 PM

The Tigers are 7-3 this year vs SP's with a whip >1.5...

Here's the supporting data:
4/8/12 vs Bos (Buchholz) whip=1.91... 13-12w4/10/12 vs TB (Moore) whip=1.58... 5-2w4/16/12 @ KC (Duffy) whip=1.59... 3-2w4/18/12 @ KC (Sanchez) whip=1.86... 4-3w4/27/12 @ NYY (Nova) whip=1.65... 6-7L4/28/12 @ NYY (Garcia) whip=1.78... 7-5w5/1/12 vs KC (Hochevar) whip=1.54... 9-3w5/2/12 vs KC (Sanchez) whip=1.86... 2-3L5/6/12 vs CHW (Axelrod) whip=1.57... 3-1w5/16/12 vs Minn (Blackburn) whip=1.77... 7-11L
The Tigers are no where living up to the standards of the public just yet but there have certainly been some very profitable situations with them this year if you have been paying attention and doing your homework. As you can see on any standard stat sheet that the Tigers are scoring 4.39rpg (Which is better than more than half the league already #10) but they are averaging 5.9rpg when facing a SP with a whip greater than 1.5 this year. You will also notice that the Tigers are hitting .257ba as a team (Also better than more than half the league #10) but vs SP's with a whip greater than 1.5 they are batting .286 (100 for 350) as a team with 11hr's in 10 games (59 runs)...
With all this in mind guess who is in town tonight to face the Detroit Tigers? The Cleveland Indians who have lost 10 straight games to the Detroit Tigers as the Indians are sending Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill who just so happens to have a whip of 1.7 as he has allowed 46 hits in 46 innings pitched and walked a team high 32 batters as his bb/9 is a mind boggling 6... [More]

Posted Wednesday, May 16, 2012 02:00 PM

The Tigers vs a struggling and/or questionable RHSP who barley throws 90mph=Deja Vu

Struggling RHSP who barely throws 90mph (Blackburn) & worst AL offense team=high probability for Det success tonight. Porcello last year(4 starts) vs Minny=24inn, 21h, 6er, 8bb, 1.2whip & 2.25era. Det & Porcello won all 4 of those games last year 10-2, 4-2, 5-2, 8-1.  More importantly the Tigers were up after 5innings in all 4 Porcello games vs Minny L yr: 6-1, 4-0, 4-2, 2-1. So I get the Tigers vs yet another struggling RHSP (Where lots of their success has came from this year as you will see below in previous links posted here)http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101341262 http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101342802
And I also get to fade the worst offense in the american league in runs per game at 3.33rpg and 26th in MLB batting at .235. And I get to do it with one of the more serviceable (one of my favorite words used to describe Porcello as he's not lights out but he gets the job done vs the lessor teams) pitchers in the american league. If you have been following the Tigers at all this season you should already understand that Leyland continues to make bad decisions with his bullpen (Which sucks BTW). So I will simply avoid the full game by doing this below...
Det 1st 5inn RL-0.5(-130)5u(Porcello/Blackburn)...... [More]

Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 01:19 PM

Ryan Vogelsong and baseball games at AT&T park, equal?

Well at least for the last 2 years anyways it means you get down on the under. He has started 18 games at AT&T park within the past 2 baseball seasons and those games have stayed under the total 15 times (83%) as only 4.77 runs per game were averaged in these games. Need proof, here ya go...
5/8/11 vs Col 3-0w o/u7.55/20/11 vs Oak 2-1w o/u6.55/26/11 vs Fla 0-1L o/u76/5/11 vs Col 2-1w o/u76/10/11 vs Cin 3-2w o/u76/22/11 vs Min 5-1w u/o6.57/8/11 vs NYM 2-5L o/u6.57/18/11 vs LAD 5-0w o/u6.57/23/11 vs Milw 4-2w o/u78/3/11 vs Ari 8-1w o/u7.58/8/11 vs Pit 0-5L o/u78/25/11 vs Hou 1-3L o/u7.58/30/11 vs CHC 2-5L o/u6.59/4/11 vs Ari 1-4L o/u79/10/11 vs LAD 0-3L o/u7.59/26/11 vs Col 3-1w o/u74/15/12 vs Pit 1-4L o/u7.55/3/12 vs Mia 2-3L o/u6.5
That's right the Ryan Vogelsong factor inside AT&T park...
My wager if you haven't already guessed it:
SF/Col u7(-125)5u(Vogelsong/Friedrich)...... [More]

Posted Saturday, May 12, 2012 02:00 PM

More speak of baseball at "Chase Field" tonight...

When I overlook tonight's match up and/or possible starting pitching for the evening. We notice that Cain is up against Cahill. The 1st thing that pops into my head is "I know Cain has been a fly ball pitcher throughout his career" with a career FB% of 44% (And a career high FB% this year of 51.8%). With his k/9 still sitting in the low to high 7's like the last 5 years but his bb/9 a career best at 1.39 that tell's me hitters are getting more contact this year off of Cain and he has been rather fortunate as his babip is currently a very friendly  .181. So basically when you see on the standard stats that he only has allowed 26hits in 45.1innings it does not tell the whole truth. 
With thee above in mind it's no surprise that his early success this season has only come in the cozy confines of AT&T park where AT&T park is currently the top pitcher friendly park in the league at .343hr's per game (Which is exactly where AT&T park finished last year with .596hr per game). However Cain has pitched outside of AT&T park just 2 times this year and the results did not end well. In his 2 visits to Chase Field (Ari the #1 hr per game park at 1.882pg this year) & Great American Ball Park (Cincy the #2 hr per game park at 1.745pg this year) the Giants have gone 0-2 in Cain's starts as he has allowed 11h, 8er, 4bb, 11k's all in 12.1inn of work. The thing you may have missed was he also allowed 2hr's in each of those games (That's 80% of his hr's ... [More]

Posted Friday, May 11, 2012 04:57 PM

Over = 11-5 in Arizona this year. There is a reason for this 68% clip...

It's very easy to turn on your computer and look at these trends daily and notice things like this with just a quick look up and down any live odds/match-up page. But what many usually fail to do is further any research as to why this may have happened. Since Chris Young's injury the Arizona offense has actually averaged just 3.8rpg which is almost a whole run less per game as they were averaging 4.72rpg with him in the 11 games previous games to April 18th. Arizona is also 7-14 overall since April 18th as a team on the field losing 9 of those games at home. Starting to feel the importance of what Chris Young has meant to his teams success yet? OK now let's talk about those 12 overs that have hit inside of Chase Field. 7 of them were vs better hitting ball clubs= Stl(1x).287ba , Atl(3x).265ba, Phi(3x).257ba. Pittsburgh was the only team thus far to come to Chase Field and cash a couple under's in a 3 game span an we all know were their offense sits. The other 3 overs came in the 1st games of the season vs the same team that the Diamondbacks are facing tonight, the Giants. Except there will be no Pablo Sandoval this time around (5hits, 4rbi's & 1hr in that 3 game series). If you were wondering Chris Young had 5hits, 4rbi's & 1hr in that same series. Chris Young's replacement's (Parra & Pollack) have split time in center field since Young's absence are now a combined 33 for 133 (.248ba) 2hr's & 14rbi. A far cry from what Chris Young's 5hr's, 13rbi's an... [More]

Posted Thursday, May 10, 2012 02:24 PM

Tiger's get another aging RHP to go against tonight. You know the drill...

 I took the Tigers on the money line today at (-121)4u and the Tigers on the run line -1.5runs at (+140)2u. Even with Scherzer on the mound I did that. Most people are probably not aware that Max's k/9 is currently at scorching hot 10.34 right now. Most are mostly inclined to speak of his control issues with his walk rate currently at 3.73 per 9 innings or his babip currently at .409. But that k/9 that is lights out right now tells me that this 94-95mph pitcher does not lack the pitch to get that all important out when needed. And wouldn't you know it that few teams strikeout more per game than the Oakland A's do as they do so an at a rate of 7.71 times per game as a team. Brandon Inge is not going to help that cause at all as much of that was already there before his arrival. This situation tonight also fits into the category where the Tigers are again getting an opportunity vs an aging RHP who barely touches 90mph on the radar gun. That's were all of our success has came from this year as I stated the other day when they were up against Millwood's 37 year old weak stuff. There are no guarantees but the Tiger's should stand a much higher probability of scoring runs tonight vs the Oakland A's than they did vs the Seattle M's pitchers. Also this Oakland A's team his the lowest run per game team that Scherzer will face this seasob so far at just 3.42rpg...
Tigers(-121)4u...Tigers RL-1.5(+140)2u...... [More]

Posted Tuesday, May 08, 2012 11:56 AM

The Tigers have been underachieving lots of goals so far, but...

Tigers have scored greater than 5 runs 6 times this year. The opposing starting pitchers in those games were the following: Beckett, Buchholz, Niemann, Nova, Garcia & Hochevar. Notice anything about this list? If you answered with all right handed starting pitchers with question marks, then you would be 100% correct. Ivan Nova is the hardest hurler on that list checking right around 92(ish)mph with his fastball. The rest on that list all way below that. This is great news seeing we get the struggling journeyman Kevin Milwood on the mount tonight who barely touches 90mph at 35 years old now a days. Mr Justin Verlander should help us steer clear of the bullpen this evening and there should be a great possibility the Tigers get a win of more than 1 run or better tonight for the 1st time this year in a game in which JV is pitching in...

FYI... Last year the Tigers won 20 games by at least 2 runs or better in 34 possible JV starts. It's time to get back on that horse knowing the Tigers have failed to cover the RL-1.5 in every game JV has started this year...
The obvious play tonight is Detroit Tigers on the RL-1.5(-115)5u(JV/Millwood)...
Currently being offered at Betonline.ag right now. Line has dropped from other books who had ht eRL-1.5 as high as -130 last night. BOL if you play this one with me!

... [More]

Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 12:04 PM

!!!! MLB 3/27 Tuesday !!!!

1pm games:

Red Sox (-150) 5u...
Mets (+100) 3u...
Pirates (+165) 2u...

Posted Tuesday, March 20, 2012 10:31 AM

Umass is playing solid basketball right now!

Have posted here in a while. Been posting on Twitter...
A10= #7 conf sos rpi > CAA= #13 conf sos rpiUmass= #114 sos rpi > Drexel= #195 sos rpi Drexel is already 0-1su & 0-1ats vs A10 (St Joes)
32(2x),27,47,62(2x),84(2x),77,80(2x),114,125,157,179,230(2x),216= Umass conference opp power ratings...
33(2x),94,102(2x),156(2x),133(2x),184,258(2x),238(2x),303(2x),249(2x),340(2x)= Drexel conference opp power ratings...
CBB tue: Umass +6.5... (
Why would I not want to back this Umass team who's playing excellent right now 4-1su & 4-1ats L4 (ats L was by hf pt) & now vs a team that should be in big question of laying this much to a team many could venture to say is just flat out a better basketball team. Drexel laying pts today is nothing more than a pick we should see a lot of the so called "Wanna be Sharps on today". Their ain't no guarantee's in this life we live but i'n no way shape or form can I justify laying these point's...
Chatter among yourselves and good luck on your wagering today...... [More]

Posted Thursday, March 01, 2012 12:38 PM

Magic backers should be scared tonight after last night's win...

Since Dwight Howard has put on a basketball uniform for the Orlando Magic (04-05) his team has been a pretty scary bet in the 1st two games that have followed the All-Star break as the Magic have gone 4-10su & 5-9ats over the past seven NBA seasons. In their 2nd game following the All-Star break it actually gets worse in relation to winning basketball games as the Magic are 1-6su & 3-4ats over that same period of time as you can see here below:
2/26/05 @Miami (98-101)L +6w*2/22/06 @NJ (93-96)L +11.5w*2/21/07 @Detroit (88-110)L +7.5L*#2/20/08 @Toronto (110-127)L +3.5L*#2/18/09 @New Orleans (85-117)L +1.5L#2/19/10 vsDallas (85-95)L -7L2/25/11 vsOKC (111-88)w -6w
So as you can see history has consistently proven the Orlando Magic to be a loser both on the court and in the wagering world as well in these first 2 games that have followed the All-Star break.
 I'm sure most of you would love to ask the all important question of, "But wait they are playing the OKC Thunder tonight and by this analogy the Orlando Magic pulverized them last year in this very same and exact situation. So wouldn't you think they can do it again?" 
I'm so glad you asked because there is most certainly a solid reason as to why the Magic were able to pound the Thunder into pulp last season. The Thunder simply had no defense for a man of Dwight Howard's size and athletic ability in the paint as he he poured in 40pts on a remarkable 16 for 20 night from the field (80%). He wa... [More]

Posted Saturday, February 18, 2012 04:32 AM

!!!! CBB Saturday !!!!

Toledo +1... Sam Houston is a very bad basketball team while Toledo has played their past 6 games vs solid teams @ 99-50su. I think that rubs off and makes a road win seem a bit easier than needed as Sam Houston is a team in need of many things that can be found....
Buffalo +7... The Jackrabbits 11 home wins this year:

North Dakota St (9-7) Summit (16-10)overall

Southern Utah (8-9) Summit (13-14)overall

Oral Roberts (16-1) Summit (24-5)overall

UMKC (4-12) Summit (10-18)overall

South Dakota (4-12) Summit (9-16)overall

Oakland (9-7) Summit (15-13)overall

IPFW (4-12) Summit (10-16)overall

North Dakota (3-4) Great West (11-14)overall

SouthWest Minn St (14-10) D-2 school

Dakota St (15-12) NAIA school

Western Mich (5-7) MAC (11-15)overall

 In simple terms the Jacrabbits home wins were vs #153, #227, #51, #246, #266, #152, #265, #275, #170 + NAIA & D-2 school. This has prompted inflation I can't pass up as Buffalo plays very sound basketball...

The rest of my card:

Drexel +3

 St Johns +4

 Mizzo@TexA&M over 131

 Fairfield@Wisc-Milw under 124

 Sac St -3.5... 

... [More]

Posted Sunday, February 05, 2012 04:47 PM

!!!! Super Bowl !!!!

68-45-5 ytd +383 units...(60%)

15-7-1 POD's +205 units...(68%)

0-1 POY -55 units...

2-0-2 on Championship Wagers 2 weeks ago in this thread below:


Today's wager's are:

Giants/Pats over 53 for 50 units...POD

Giants for 20 units...

Posted Wednesday, January 25, 2012 06:37 PM

!!!! CBB Wednesday !!!!

152-137-2 ytd netting +27 units...
29-34 (POD's) -129 units...

1-1 on Monday netting -2 units. Here's the thread below:

Tonight's action is:

St Jonn's Red Storm +7.5 for 20 units...
Depaul Blue Demons +10 for 20 units...
St. Joseph's Hawks -4 for 20 units...POD 

Posted Wednesday, January 25, 2012 06:13 PM

!!!! NBA Wednesday !!!!

35-45 ats ytd -210.5 units overall(43.75%)25-33 ats full game wagers -158.25 units...(43.1%)1-1 ats 1st half wagers -1 units...9-11 ats 2nd half wagers -49 units...
3-11 ML dogs +0 units...1-1 ML favs -2.25 units...11-14 POD -76 units..

0-3 on Monday followed by 3-0 yesterday. Here's both threads below:

Tonight's action on:
Warriors ML(-160) for 20 units... Warriors 1st half -2 for 20 units...Heat -8.5 for 20 units...PODHeat 1st half -4.5 for 20 units...
... [More]

Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 11:24 AM

!!!! CBB Monday !!!!

151-136-2 ytd netting +29 units...
28-33 (POD's) -127 units...

Saturdays thread went 5-3 netting +26 units. 2-1(POD's). Here's that thread below:

Today's action is on:

Hofstra +13.5 for 20 units...
James Madison +11.5 for 20 units...POD

Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 10:36 AM

!!!! NBA Monday !!!!

32-42 ats ytd -204 units overall(43.2%)24-31 ats full game wagers -134.25 units...(43.6%)1-1 ats 1st half wagers -1 units...7-10 ats 2nd half wagers -57 units...
3-11 ML dogs +0 units...1-1 ML favs -2.25 units...10-13 POD -74 units..

 job on the Wizards yesterday as they failed to cover the +4.5 in the end losing by 6 after actually having the lead with 5 minutes to go. Here's that thread below:
Today's action is:
Spurs -4.5 for 20 units...POD

... [More]

Posted Sunday, January 22, 2012 10:28 AM

!!!! NBA Sunday !!!!

32-41 ats ytd -182 units overall(43.8%)24-30 ats full game wagers -112.25 units...(44.4%)1-1 ats 1st half wagers -1 units...7-10 ats 2nd half wagers -57 units...
3-11 ML dogs +0 units...1-1 ML favs -2.25 units...10-12 POD -52 units..
0-2 last night. half point loss on Spurs +2.5 and a blowout loss on Kings +9.5. Here's the proof below:
Sundays action is:
Wizards +4.5 for 20 units... The power of youth vs a team that's age has caught up with them. The Wizards have scored better than a 100pts now for 3 straight games and I believe that they would like nothing better than to channel their recent success on offense into the Celtics today at home who have already beat the Wizards twice this year. The Celtics season is quickly being written off as the more time that goes by the more we keep hearing about Allen, Garnet and/or Pierce being traded. And Ainge has confirmed he is ready to make a deal...POD
Rondo traveled with the Celtics to Washington and has been listed as a game time decision. Honestly I expect him to play. And that's just fine. If he doesn't play that's fine to. The Celtics are possibly the hottest messes in the NBA right now @ 5-9su & 1-4su on the road. ... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 21, 2012 06:49 AM

!!!!! CBB Saturday !!!!!

146-133-2 ytd netting +3 units...26-32 (POD's) -145 units...

Yesterdays loss on Marist +7 here below:
Saturdays action on:
Delaware +5 for 10 units...Arkansas-Little Rock@Western Kentucky under 126 for 10 units...Valpo@Illinois-Chicago under 136 for 20 units...POD#1Hofstra +3.5 for 10 units... Kent St +5.5 for 10 units...Illinois st +3.5 for 10 units...Louisiana-Monroe@Troy over 133.5 for 20 units...POD#2

... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 21, 2012 04:38 AM

!!!! NBA Saturday !!!!

32-39 ats ytd -138 units overall(45%)24-28 ats full game wagers -68.25 units...(46.1%)1-1 ats 1st half wagers -1 units...7-10 ats 2nd half wagers -57 units...
3-11 ML dogs +0 units...1-1 ML favs -2.25 units...10-11 POD -30 units..
3-1ats yesterday and 1-0 ML(+175) netting a profit of +45.5 units as I hit the Wolves game 4 ways to cap off a night that started out so sour with the shitty Knicks. Here's that glorious thread below:
Saturday's action on:
Kings +9.5 for 20 units...PODSpurs +2.5 for 20 units...... [More]

Posted Friday, January 20, 2012 12:53 PM

!!!! CBB Friday !!!!

146-132-2 ytd netting +25 units...
26-31 (POD's) -123 units...

4-6 yesterday playing too many games and netting -27 units because of a few moose jobs. Here's the thread below:

One play tonight on:

Marist +7 for 20 units... Already missed the late steam on them but still see value...POD

Posted Friday, January 20, 2012 12:48 PM

!!!!! NBA Friday !!!!!

29-38 ats ytd -183.5 units overall(43.2%)22-27 ats full game wagers -86.25 units...(44.8%)1-1 ats 1st half wagers -1 units...6-10 ats 2nd half wagers -67 units...
2-11 ML dogs -17.5 units...1-1 ML favs -2.25 units...10-10 POD -8 units..
I'm still having a CJ Miles hate fest after that meaningless 3 ball yesterday at the end of regulation was the reason I went 1-2  netting -24 units instead of 2-1 netting +18 units. Isn't NBA wagering fun? Here's that moose of a thread below:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101245320CJ Miles
One play tonight on:
Knicks -5.5 for 20 units.... The Bucks are 0-8su & 1-7ats on the road this year. I have no problem laying the chalk in this spot with the Knicks when most will be reluctant to wager on either of these teams right now. Seems like a great spot for the Knicks tonight at home...POD... [More]

Posted Thursday, January 19, 2012 12:12 PM

!!!!! NBA Thursday !!!!

28-36 ats ytd -159.5 units overall(43.8%)22-26 ats full game wagers -64.25 units...(45.8%)1-1 ats 1st half wagers -1 units...5-9 ats 2nd half wagers -65 units...
2-11 ML dogs -17.5 units...1-1 ML favs -2.25 units...10-9 POD +14 units..
Last night was a nice 3-1 night netting +44 units. Here's that glorious thread below:
Tonight's action on:
Rockets -9.5 for 20 units... The have been tinkering with the #4 spot all season spreading time out to 3 different players (Carl Landry, Jason Smith & Gustavo Ayon). The Hornets are currently 0-3su on the 2nd leg of b2b games this year. The fact that Ariza & Belinelli both played 40 minutes last night while Jack played 35 minutes leads me to believe that this game reeks of a possible blowout with no security on the depth chart for the Hornets (hence all the tinkering of the lineups). The bottom line here is the High scoring Rockets only played 2 players over 30+ minutes (Parsons 31min & Dalembert 33min) 2 days ago at home in their blowout of the Pistons 97-80. With the extra day of rest for the Rockets while sitting at home awaiting the tired legs of the Hornets on overnight travel from New Orleans to Houston I give a big liking to having no issue with laying the chalk at home with the fresher leg... [More]

Posted Thursday, January 19, 2012 03:47 AM

!!!! CBB Thursday !!!!

142-126-2 ytd netting +52 units...25-30 (POD's) -121 units...
1-0 on the last pick with the Cuse/Pitt under back on Monday netting +20 units. Here's that thread below:
Thursdays action is:
Chattanooga -1 for 10 units...UT-Martin +12 for 10 units...Samford +7.5 for 10 units...Georgia Southern +7.5 for 10 units...Georgia Tech +4 for 20 units...POD#1NC State -16 for 10 units...SIU-Edwardsville +9 for 10 units...South Alabama -6 for 10 units...IPFW +18 for 10 units...Niagara@Canisius under 146 for 20 units...POD#2

... [More]

Posted Wednesday, January 18, 2012 12:28 AM

!!!! NBA Wednesday !!!!

25-35 ats ytd -203.5 units overall(41.6%)20-26 ats full game wagers -104.25 units...(43.4%)1-1 ats 1st half wagers -1 units...4-8 ats 2nd half wagers -69 units...
1-11 ML dogs -37.5 units...1-1 ML favs -2.25 units...9-9 POD -6 units..
0-1 yesterday netting -22 units as the Rockets game failed to exceed the total. Here's the thread below:

... [More]

Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 09:08 PM

!!!! NFL Conference Championship Wagering !!!!

66-45-3 ytd +323 units...(59.4%)

13-7-1 POD's +145 units...(65%)

0-1 POY -55 units...

Wildcard thread had a bit of misfortune going 3-3ats netting -16.5 units. And now i lost my biggest bet so far this year on the Saints/49ers under while pushing on the Ravnes -7. Divisional round went 0-1-1 netting -55 units. Here's that piss poor thread below:


NFC Championship wager on:

Giants@49ers under 42.5 for 40 units... Every POD bet has been 20 units throughout the season up to this point. I really want to make another play of the year play but that would just be asinine. I really love this play very much so and i'm wagering accordingly. Every body in the world just witnessed Eli Manning completely tear apart a horrific defense last week and will probably be betting the Giants getting the points. These 2 defenses should take control of this game and that 49er offense won't be so blessed to have plays go for 49 yards like Vernon Davis did in the 1st qtr last week or 28 yard TD run's from Alex Smith as he did in the later stages of the 4th qtr in that same game. It's not weather the under here owes me but more so it's just the correct and morally the right selection in relation to long term profits, which is exactly why i'm sitting here now up a very large amoun... [More]

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