oddsbuster's Blog

!!!! NFL Conference Championship Wagering !!!!

By oddsbuster | View all Posts
Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 09:08 PM   28 comments

66-45-3 ytd +323 units...(59.4%)

13-7-1 POD's +145 units...(65%)

0-1 POY -55 units...


Wildcard thread had a bit of misfortune going 3-3ats netting -16.5 units. And now i lost my biggest bet so far this year on the Saints/49ers under while pushing on the Ravnes -7. Divisional round went 0-1-1 netting -55 units. Here's that piss poor thread below:


http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101240099


NFC Championship wager on:


Giants@49ers under 42.5 for 40 units... Every POD bet has been 20 units throughout the season up to this point. I really want to make another play of the year play but that would just be asinine. I really love this play very much so and i'm wagering accordingly. Every body in the world just witnessed Eli Manning completely tear apart a horrific defense last week and will probably be betting the Giants getting the points. These 2 defenses should take control of this game and that 49er offense won't be so blessed to have plays go for 49 yards like Vernon Davis did in the 1st qtr last week or 28 yard TD run's from Alex Smith as he did in the later stages of the 4th qtr in that same game. It's not weather the under here owes me but more so it's just the correct and morally the right selection in relation to long term profits, which is exactly why i'm sitting here now up a very large amount...POD



All stats and trends out the window here for me. Just strictly wagering on 2 teams about to get it on outdoors in a serious match up. Huge pressure for both of these teams as both have already exceeded expectations of from all eyes outside of these 2 teams. 

28 comments
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CASTORTROY says:
01/16/12 09:42PM

Nice year my man!!

Initially I was thinking Pats under- 49ers over?

Might be a great spot for teasing both games every which way--dogs and favorites and overs and unders-

Best of luck_

CASTORTROY says:
01/16/12 10:02PM

Never tease during the regular season, but I have done the EVERY WHICH WAY tease the last two years for Championship weekend and have hit all sides BIG!!

8-0 two years running.. Worth a small play for you?

I am going large!!

Cheers--

CASTORTROY says:
01/16/12 10:19PM

It has been 100% the last 2 years for me and my book!

hapunbaby says:
01/16/12 11:42PM
Nice season so far!! Any positive unit is a great unit!! 
bobafett says:
01/17/12 12:05PM
D-Town says:
01/17/12 12:09PM
Good luck OB.  
mrquija27 says:
01/17/12 12:37PM

Thats funny because last year I did the same shit.  Teased almost everything on this day and had one of my best days of the year.  Looking back on it though, I wouldnt say its a wise bet.

DOVJAK says:
01/17/12 12:38PM
CASTORTROY says:
01/18/12 09:12AM

ANY BET YOU WIN-NO MATTER HOW YOU WIN- IS A WISE BET!!

mrquija27 says:
01/18/12 09:13AM

This is true! 

MJ2345 says:
01/18/12 09:18AM
BOL Odds,Like the UNder

livie says:
01/18/12 11:39AM

A lot of things have been bought over last 6 years from my plays in CFB and NFL, just not by me. 

johnpl says:
01/18/12 12:35PM

oddsbuster 

I also lean to Under in S.F. game. But that being said, liking the under in that one,  this one trend has me really thinking Over in N.E. game. Not only because of the strong trend, but i really think they both get enough scoring opportunities to get it over the #. 

   Over has resulted in 24 of 28 Champ. Conf. games since 1993....and *only 2 times* in that period was the UNDER the result in both games in a single year.

So, if ya like the under in that game ????...G.L. to you and your plays.

 

gobi85 says:
01/18/12 01:51PM

Maybe I am looking at this wrong, but haven't there been 20 seasons since '93, therefore, there would have been 40 championship games? So how could the over be 24 of 28?  I love this trend btw, just trying to clarify it.  

I was thinking, if the under has only happened in both games in 2 seasons out of the 20, that is only 10% of the time.  Therefore, couldn't you fairly confidently bet both overs figuring that you would most likely juice out by splitting them.  However, if you weren't to juice out, you would more likely win both than lose both.  Does that make any sense or am I looking at this completely wrong?
apwoodwa says:
01/18/12 02:08PM
peace handshake
johnpl says:
01/18/12 06:34PM

 gobi85    from my above post  : Over has resulted in 24 of 28 Champ. Conf. games since 1993....and *only 2 times* in that period was the UNDER the result in both games in a single year.

CORRECTION - SHOULD READ 24 OF 38 GAMES (NOT 28*only 2 times* in that period was the UNDER the result in both games in a single year . Sorry about misinformation ( your eyes go at over fifty!)  Again, I apologize.  

MJ2345 says:
01/18/12 06:41PM
Wow only 2 times seems unreal has both went Under.


If you were gonna do something you could also wait for the result of the first game which is NE
johnpl says:
01/18/12 06:57PM
Yes ! you could wait.... but IF you like the over in the N.E. game and play it, and you think that this will play out accordingly,  then the under is the play in second game. I am leaning just this way in both games right now, not only from this trend but from the thought that I think that N.E. / Balt. will both get enough scoring chances to go over total. If you think N.E. can get 28 + look at this : Teams who score 28 or more points in conference title games are 32-5 SU and 31-6 ATS over the same span. Home teams that put up 28 or more points in this round are 23-0 SU and 21-2 ATS. Just my thoughts , still looking at them. G.L. in your plays.
MJ2345 says:
01/18/12 06:58PM
Like NE over but like SF under
bigkaptain says:
01/18/12 07:21PM
gl odds, i like it
johnpl says:
01/18/12 07:24PM
 Was just reading some more news letters,  jotting a few things down and was thinking on them lines myself . Although teasers are not really recommended, I played them during c.f. bowl season and also in nfl playoffs with some success as lines seem to tighten up, less games so line makers have more time to look into games. 6 pt. Teaser with :  N.E. over 44 and S.F. + 3.5. or S.F. under 48 ........maybe ?.
CASTORTROY says:
01/18/12 07:28PM

ICE-GET SOME!!! I tell ya-don't know what it is about this weekend (actually I do) but tight lines-tight games always fall right around the number-TEASE THEM EVERY WHICH WAY BUT LOSE!!!!

johnpl says:
01/18/12 07:56PM

A fact that can't be over looked in the S.F. game is the team that upsets the reining champ. are  just 0-8 s.u. and 1-7 a.t.s. Also, teams upsetting the super bowl champ. are 1-22 s.u. and 3-20  a.t.s. in all road games since 1990. A team off a scoring burst ( 35+ pts. )and traveling in next game have stuggled in that next game also going 1-10 s.u. and a.t.s. Also, of all starting q.b. this season A. Smith has the fewest with 5.

johnpl says:
01/18/12 07:59PM
si1ly says:
01/22/12 10:21PM
LasVegasLord says:
01/22/12 10:24PM
Nice job my friend.
Jose_Reyes says:
01/22/12 11:49AM
Always enjoy your insight and thought process odds.  Good luck today my friend.

evilelvis says:
01/22/12 11:43AM
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