Posted Sunday, January 31, 2010 05:35 PM
I've been killing the ACC this year so I'm going to put that to the test tonight with two picks!!
Maryland+4 (bought hook)>10U- Clemson has zero play makers or guards in general that can create offensively. GV will handle the Clemson press.
Posted Saturday, January 30, 2010 11:57 AM
Been off for a couple days. Time to get back at it with a nice Sat card.
Duke/GT O141.5>8U- Both of these teams shoot a high % in their respective conferences. GT has hit over 45% the last five games from 3. Duke is not afraide to up the tempo and I potentially see 65-70 attempts by both teams which should give them a good chance to push the total over. Both of these teams get good defensive labels but when you look at the stats they both give up over 44% shooting which is avg at best. ACC/BEast games trend over so I'm sticking with it.
Miami (oh) -7.5>7U- This is a trend play in the MAC. Miami has dominated the series the past few years. Miami has won their last 3 MAC games at home by DD. Eastern is not a top tier MAC team and they struggle on the road. Both teams struggle to shoot the ball coming in at under 40%. Miami is much better shooting team at home including from three. I like them to pull away late by hitting their FT's and covering the chalk.
Ill-12>9U- A lot of people not close to the big10 wouldn't know that this is a heated and emotional rivalry starting 3 or so years ago when Kelvin Sampson stole Eric Gordon away from Bruce Weber. Weber hates IU with a passion and he relishes every opp... [More]
Posted Tuesday, January 26, 2010 12:38 PM
Big card tonight. Liking a lot of home teams as we get deep into conference play, and it becomes tougher and tougher to get road wins.
UD-5>10U- Daytons coach was incensed after their poor effort at St. Joes especially concerning their D. R.I lost a tough one at X and has to rebound to play in an equally as tough venue. I like dayton to bounce back tonight. They are the best rebounding team in A10 and R.I gives up 13 o boards a game. UD holds teams to under 38% in conf play and under 31% from 3.
Ball St. +3>6U- Small bet on a hunch that Ball St. can get a home win vs. a team with an atrocious road resume this season in Miami. Miami has dominated ATS the last few seasons but I like that Ball St has covered their last 3 including two home leage wins vs WMU and lowly Toledo. Ball St. has held teams to under 39% shooting in conf play and they take care of their backboard only giving up 8 off boards a game. If they can limit turnovers, Miami only forces 11/game in conf play, I think they win.
Mich+5 (bought hook)>7U- I know this is a death sentence but I've always maintained that a focused Manny Harris and Sims equals a very dangerous Michigan team (eg. UCONN win at home). Mich St. is coming off an extremely hard fought come from behind w... [More]
Posted Monday, January 25, 2010 08:25 PM
Kansas-12>10U- Kansas has covered the last two at Allen Fieldhouse where Mizzou has trouble having a lot of success with their full court pressure. I also think that a revived Aldrich plays big tonight and dominates the inside.
Posted Sunday, January 24, 2010 10:53 AM
Small card but feel good about a few totals and a BEast horse to cover.
Clev St./WiscMW O132>7U- Both teams coming off impressive wins, Wisc MW on the road at Youngstwon and State at home vs. GB. Clev St. is finding their groove and I like them to continue to execute efficiently and force the tempo in this one. Both teams only avg around 63 in conf play and that's why this total is so low. I think the tempo and scoring in this one will resemble the MW/Det game where they eclipsed 140. I'm seeing a 73-68 type game. Riks is that Wisc MW struggles shooting which makes this a med unit bet.
Gtech/Fla St U135>8U- Two teams with absolutely zero guard play which always pulls me to the under. Both teams strength is on the inside and it will be a war on the boards and in the paint. In the uptempo ACC both teams avg around 68 ppg. I think the tempo slows to a crawl, the bricks build up and this game sticks in the low 60's but is tightly contested.
Pitts +2.5>8U- I feel like a sucker taking this line but I have a method to my madness beyond the typical, Pitt is 5-1 in conf vs. SH being 2-4. This game will be all about tempo and rebounding. Typically I'll give the home team a lean in these areas. But Pitt is great at inserting their will and their patience on offense ... [More]
Posted Saturday, January 23, 2010 12:10 AM
Miss St- Pk
Posted Friday, January 22, 2010 12:01 PM
Just leans right now, nothing really standing out. Looking for input
Posted Thursday, January 21, 2010 06:55 PM
Big ten and big east plays to start the night.
IU+10>6U- Smaller play but something tells me this lineup is starting to gel with Watford, Hulls, Rivers, Jones III and Prichard. Penn St. just is a one option team on offense and I like Tom Crene to scheme to stop him. Pure gut play here.
Louis-2>10U- I wanted to make this larger but the Hall has been close to breaking out and they certainly are talented. This is a coaching play and when Louisville has been back to the wall, they always come out and play well. Patino is one of the best of all time when it comes to finding motivation. Couple that with Sam Samuels finally playing up to his ability and I like Louisville to make a run in the 2H to ice this away.
Posted Wednesday, January 20, 2010 03:11 PM
Conf and overall records below. A10 action tonight and I'm feeling good about my picks.
Temp-3.5(bought hook)>10- Temple is 5-0-1 the last 6 vs. X. I researched this game for a long time and at the end of the day, I think X has to prove they can knock down spot up jumpers vs. this Temple zone. X has decent enough shooters but I think this Temple zone really limits pentration and post up opportunities which is basically what X's offense does. If Temple controls tempo which they should do being that they are at home, I don't see why they can't win this game handidly. That said, offensively they have to limit turnovers which they do well for the most part, and be aggressive towards the rim to get the X bigs in foul trouble. This is a great set up for Temple to prove they are in the top 2 or 3 in this conference. X is coming off a rivalry game and may come out flat.
Richmond -7>7U- I can't help myself but I have to fade Charlotte and their horrible coach and this undisciplined team. Richmond will execute them to death at home and I see Charlotte settling for way too many contest 3's which they shoot under 10% on in conf play. I love Richmond in a route. Charlotte coming off a tough OT win vs. St. Louis at home. I like them to be flat on the ro... [More]
Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2010 12:10 AM
I've been tracking and posting my conference records as I've always profited during league play vs. non-conference. Hope to continue the hot hand having hit 11-1-3 the past 15 games.
GaTech-3>10U- I had to jump on this line b/c I think it will get close to 4.5-5 by tip. The reason being Domontez Stitt is doubtful for this game for Clemson. Last game vs. NcSt you saw how they struggled without him at full strength. He is the one guy they have on the perimeter that can generate offense off the dribble and create his own shot. Also, Clemson is 0-4 ATS on the road vs. teams over .500. This tells me they struggle with good teams when playing on the road. Clemson lives and feeds off their full court pressure defense which is so much more effective in front of a loud home crowd that allows them to get buckets in waves. On the road, teams have an easier time breaking that pressure. In a half court game, I like Ga Tech to take advantage of their active bigs to get points in the paint. I may double down on this tomorrow to make this a bigger play if the line doesn't get away from me. 8-1 so far this year w/ ACC so I'm ridin a hot hand.
Posted Monday, January 18, 2010 07:03 PM
Cuse-3>10U- Bottom line in this one is N.D has to prove to me they can beat a team that has long tall athletes at all positions that shoot a very high %. N.D is at the bottom of the big east in fg defense. Syracuse is at the top in % offense. It all starts and ends with Harangody and the last time they met he took 28 shots in a bad loss. He has to be efficient on offense which I think is a tough challenge against this front line. Love the cuse to cover maybe DD.
Posted Saturday, January 16, 2010 12:14 PM
Saturdays have been a capital drain for me. Today needs to be different. I'm locked in on my league plays.
Big 10: 7-3-1
Mich St-10 (bought pt)>10U- This line will get hammered by non-B10 enthusiast as Illinois catching DD in B10 play seems odd. Bottom line is Illinois is really struggling w/ its back court which is a weakness that Mich St. will prey upon. Look for Lucas to break out and Chris Allen, Summers and Morgan to get it going vs. a Illini squad trying to find their identity.
Pitt+1>8U- Anytime you can catch a team that has won 30 straight home games as a home dog I think the high % play is to bet them. I know Louisville has won their twice since 2002 but this is far from one of the better Patino teams. Pitt guards will handle pressure but more importantly they will defend the 3. Pitt to win by 3.
Penn St-3.5>6U- Iowa is bad bad bad and sinking. That said they are due to at least get one league win this year and this could be a prime spot against an 0-4 league play penn st squad. Taylor Battle can control this game as Iowa has no answers. I'll lay the points on the road.
NC U155>6U- Two teams who rely on their bigs but aren't afraid to get in transition. This is a small play b/c if NC shoots well and breaks free of their slump this could go over. &n... [More]
Posted Friday, January 15, 2010 06:29 PM
Big 10: 7-3-1
No plays locked in tonight. Leaning towards playing Ill Chicago but they are so horrible on offense probably will lay off. Big card tomorrow and NFL football this weekend so a night off might be in the cards. BOL to all my fav covers cappers! Big shout outs to UNC, Vols, VegasMax, Swizzel, game, pineapple, kbrick, jason white, ryda, rush, allbees, sims_key, kine, purdue pride, crusher, target, tommygun, acc, 222, packers, hot route, nos, kg capper, dbrules, brianlaverty, laid, gwarner and others!! Knock em dead
Posted Thursday, January 14, 2010 12:27 PM
Big 10: 7-2-1
Clev St. +15.5>12U- POD. Early success capping the Horizon this year, mostly backing and fading Butler. Tonight is a unique opportunity to get a improving Clev St. squad +15.5 against a team they've played very competitively the past few years. Clev St. lost a lot of their front court from the team that gave Butler fits last year, but they have a backcourt that is making strides. I have a formula for teams that can cover or even win against Butler and Clev St. has the ingredients. Athleticism at all 5 positions, the ability to crowd Hayward and make him become a distributor, an athletic forward/center who can make Howard work on defense and challenge his post moves and finally a pt. guard who can stay with Mack from a quickness and speed perspective. Butler will no doubt make this a slow down half court affair. If Clev St. doesn't get frustrated and jack bad shots, they can be right there at the end. But they need to come out early and get some easy buckets and get to the foul line. Butler destroys people on the line so they can't give up 10-12 pts in FT's. I think the Clev St. guards attack enough to get that done. Butler is below .500 ATS at home as they give up close to 47% so far in league play shooting wise.
S. Alabama -2>10U- I admit I'm intrigued by this team. I think the... [More]
Posted Wednesday, January 13, 2010 04:38 PM
2-3-1 last night. Big card tonight.
Big 10: 6-1-1
Mich St-6.5>7U- Minn is a different team on the road where they struggle to find points and surprisingly allow a high 3pt %. Mich St. is locked in, 3-0ATS in conference. This will be a backcourt battle with Westbrook and Nolan offering a stiff challenge to Lucas and C. Allen. I think Raymar Morgan will have to do work tonight and own his small forward matchup. Sampson is back but he fails to show up at times especially on the road and against physical teams which MSU def qualifies as.
NW+3>6U- This is a small play based on a couple of factors. First, NW is coming off a sizzling 2nd H vs. Michigan to get a huge road win. Wisconsin is coming off a huge home win vs. Purdue. I like NW to carry momentum forward and Wisc to be caught in a let down that is compounded by the loss of John Luhr who in my opinion is their MVP thus far this season.
Akron Pick>10U- Play of the night. I like the MAC champs to roll. They are coming together at the right time. They have crazy depth and I think OU is an overrated team at this juncture. Yes, they have some interesting pieces but I have yet to see them play well for a full 40 minutes. They are vulnerable to get blown out by a strong league team.
Va. Tech-3>10U- Play of the night part II. I really love this line for some rea... [More]
Posted Tuesday, January 12, 2010 11:08 AM
5-1 night last night +29U. Each time I've had a break out night, I've gave it back in the next couple of days. Tonight is important.
Big 10: 5-1
Overall CBB: 78-67-4
$$: + 29.7U
Ohio St/Pur. U136>10u- The Boilers are tough at home especially on the defensive end. Ohio St. is limited in options offensively as it starts and ends with Evan Turner. While he has played as well as possible coming off an extensive injury, I question whether against a solid team defense like Purdue, that he can go off for a big #. OSU gets nothing inside so its all about the 3's tonight. Purdue defends the 3 relatively well at home. Kramer will bother Turner all night and Moore and Hummel will help cover up Diebler and Buford. Defensively, OSU will prob play a lot of their match up zone which slows tempo and forces teams to become permeter oriented. All this said, I see this as a 70-60 type game which bodes well for the under.
Penn St. +9> 7U- Illinois is 0-4 as a 7.5-9.5 favorite. Penn St. is 1-0 as a dog between those same spreads. Taylor Battle will have the advantage against the young inexperienced Illini guards and I think he'll exploit them enough to keep this close. Penn St. is also a solid defensive club in the HALF COURT. Tempo will be huge. I haven't seen Illinois commit to the uptempo game in league play as they were trending in non-league. The NW g... [More]
Posted Monday, January 11, 2010 02:12 PM
As has been the case for me all season, as soon as I get some momentum started with a big day (9-4 on Sat +30U) I give it back the following day. I've been inconsistent to say the least. I'm focused today and feel good about these picks.
Big 10: 5-1
Rider-7.5>10U- Rider has dissapointed this year with the guys they had coming back. They are shooting close to 40% from the floor which just doesn't equate to their talent level. What better time to cure shooting woes then against a Maris team that gives up 45% for the year and close to 50% in conference. Their coach says they are "practicing better" but that's little solice for a team that is 1-14 on the year. Rider bet them by 4 at home earlier this year and shot less then 35%. They'll heat up tonight, dominate the boards and walk away with a DD win.
Iona-1>7U- I'm backing another road team here and as I pointed out yesterday, that can be a recipe for disaster. But I think this fits the scenario that I've been winning with and that is a better team giving up short points on the road to a team who has struggled at home. Loyola has struggled in conf and at home.
Lou--3>10U- Louisville has started to come around as they typically do to start big
east play. Their guards need to stroke the ball tonight but I think
they will get good open looks as Nova doesn't defend the 3 particularly
Posted Sunday, January 10, 2010 03:40 PM
I'm watching some of this Denver/WKU game and I have to say my biggest lesson learned thus far is WKU is not well coached. Any WKU followers have any thoughts?
Denver obviously loves to slow it down and play at a snails pace and execute the shit out of their offensive sets. They shoot over 50% for a reason and that's b/c they never take bad shots and they always are patient. Defensively, they have nobody to guard the post inside and WKU has exploited that at times but not well enough.
Here's my concern. If I'm coaching against Denver, I know that tempo is the absolute key. So what can I do to force a quicker tempo and get them out of their rhythem so they can't just kill me in the half court. Two things: I played them full court pressure defense alternating between zone presses and man to man. Anything to get them thinking and out of sync. Offensively I push the ball at every opportunity even on makes. And by pushing the ball, I don't mean fly down the court and throw up flyers. Post men sprint and get position and then feed them and crash the boards. There should be 4 guys on the offensive glass every shot. Denver is not going to run it back at you. They will walk it up.
WKU has sat back in a 2-3 zone this whole first half??? They have an obvious quickness advantage at guard but they do nothing to pressure their ball handlers. It's mind boggling. I know WKU isn't that d... [More]
Posted Sunday, January 10, 2010 01:58 PM
Good day yesterday with a $32.3U profit!!
Big 10: 5-1
Overall CBB: 72-63-4
Kansas-4>15U- bought 1/2 pt. Like I said in UNC's thread, Tenn is undisciplined and will take horrible shots especially when pressured on D. I can't see them staying in this game but there will be a ton of emotion and huge home ct advantage so anything can happen. Otherwise this line would be 8-10 pts.
Wash St+8>10U- I think Vegas got a little ahead of themselves with this one. This line has to be based on Ariz St's throttling of Wash which should not have that much of an effect on Wash St. line. Two different teams, two different styles and two different game plans. Wash is terrible in the half court. Wash St. can play half court. Ariz St. is NOT THAT GOOD. Wash made them look way better then they are. I took the ML on this as well in a parlay.
WKU+1>8U- I'm starting to like WKU and I may be reaching with this road dog pick but they have some legit players and they have veteran guys like Slaughter. I think they win this outright even though they just had to travel from S. Alab out to the west coast.
Posted Saturday, January 09, 2010 12:06 PM
Posted Friday, January 08, 2010 12:12 PM
Overall CBB: 61-57-4
Rough night posting 3-6 last night. Bounce back w/ 3 play friday.
Butler PK>12U- I've followed this Butler team all year and have had success fading them vs. stiff non-league competition. The Horizon league is a different story. Their big 3 (Howard, Hayward, Mack) will not let them lose in league play. Wright St. is as stiff a test as they come especially at home. They are a GREAT home team. That said, Butler won there last year by 15 and beat them 3 times total last year. This veteran group creates bad match ups for the Raiders and Howard should have his way on the inside. I'll take the league champ favorites in any venue as a pick.
St. Marys-10.5>12U- St. Mary's is a good team with inside/outside balance. San Fran plays at a slow pace but they'll have trouble scoring at all and they will have no answers on D. I like this match-up again in any venue.
Wash+4>8U- I analyzed the two teams and I just think that Ariz St. is a very overrated team at this juncture of the season. Their non-league schedule was just so-so and their weaknesses were exposed in two league losses vs. USC and UCLA. Ariz St. does not have the scorers to keep up with Washington. I like Wash to control the inside and get out enough in transition to get easy buckets. If they can control the early surge fr... [More]
Posted Thursday, January 07, 2010 01:06 PM
B10 Conf: 2-0
Overall CBB: 58-51-4
2-2-1 last night but hit my B10 play w/ Mich St. albeit it was a nail biter. I really like this card tonight. So much that I went ahead and parlayed them all which I normally don't do to try to hit a big one. BOL!
Locked in: (in order of confidence)
Mich+2.5>10U- I wrote my thoughts on this on Vol's thread so check it out. I follow the B10 closely and Mich just looks like a team ready to break out. They've shot poorly this year and haven't executed offensively or defensively. I think Manny Harris has a big night and they control Taylor Battle for the win.
LaSalle+4>10U- This is a gut check test for me on my capping abilities. I really think this sets up perfect for a LaSalle upset of X at home. X is coming off a extremely hard fought 2 OT loss. They lost one of their primary ball handlers in Lyons who I also feel is a glu guy fort his team with his effort and intensity and willingness to step forward in big spots. LaSalle's frosh big man will have to step up and defend Love and Frease and compete on the boards. I think they will be motivated at home for a rare opportunity to knock off the A10 chief X.
George Mason+8>9U- I really don't know how GM gets 8 pts even on the road vs. a red hot NE team?? I'll take the bait. These teams play very physical and it will be a tightly contested game. The one ... [More]
Posted Wednesday, January 06, 2010 03:17 PM
Overall CBB: 56-49-3
Michigan St -5.5>16U- I get it that Wisconsin is much better then people thought and they've had some impressive wins and have started off well in the B10. But the Breslin Center will be rocking, and this is a MSU team with a ton of back court experience which will neutralize and I think out play Hughes and Bohannon. Izzo has coached them up all year for big league games like this and I think they will play their best game of the year. Mich St. has been more uptempo the last couple of weeks and they are the one team in the league who will match Wisc on the boards. I like them to jump out early and get a double digit win.
Charlotte +13.5>14U- Another big unit play. Charlotte completely laid an egg at ODU and they have much to prove on the road. They hung tight vs. Ga Tech and they are in desperate need of a big non-conf win so they will be motivated. Tenn lost 4 crucial players as has been discussed at length around the site. I think the Tyler Smith loss is big. Tenn consistently seems to be me like an under achieving group of individuals who can't play team ball and who struggle in Bruce Pearl's offensive system. They obviously are best when they can just run and press but without depth I don't know if they'll still play that style. I think Charlotte has the guards to handle the pressure who are experiences and won't get raddled. ... [More]
Posted Monday, January 04, 2010 12:44 PM
First plays of the new year for hoops and I'm ready to start profiting off of conference play. I've always fared well capping conf games so I hope to keep the trend alive. BOL
Overall CBB: 54-47-3
UNC-15>7U- UNC just has too many athletes especially inside and on the glass. If they shoot a decent % at all from three they blow this game open. Charleston will need to hit a high % of threes and I don't see that happening. I think this line is soft b/c NC hasn't really won a road game yet. Keep in mind they were playing the cuse at MSG, Kentucky and Texas in Dallas. A lot different then a short trip south to Charleston.
Pitts +4.5>6U- Going oppo from a few folks on this site. I had a write up in UNC's thread. This will be a close affair. I'll go with the better defensive team and FT shooting team.
Georgia St. -2>6U- League game at home. Georgia St. has played well the last three at home and I see that trend continuing.
La Tech -2>8U- Utah St. is a team I don't like to bet against but they seem to be out of sync this year a bit and LT has been great at home. Tech's athletes will quicken the tempo and their shot blockers and rebounders will control the inside. I think they'll hit enough shots to get a lead and hold on.
Murray St -22